On Wed, 23 Jan 2008 00:26:12 -0500, "D.Duck" wrote:


"Short Wave Sportfishing" wrote in message
.. .
On Tue, 22 Jan 2008 21:33:35 -0500, "D.Duck" wrote:

You cannot just look at one year either from a positive or negative
aspect.

One of the more interesting things I became involved with was back
testing - I started doing this about ten years or so ago using 1
month, 6 month, 18 month, 36 month spans.

It's really an interesting way to determine the value of any long term
investment.

Now, I've got programs that will forward test, back test, sideways
test, upside down test... :)

I don't trade as much as invest long term. Every once in a while you
get interested in something or the other and invest in that. Solar
stocks recently have been a winner for me - funds and single
intestments. Probably will be handing those off to the kids.

I've mentioned this before, but I still have IBM stock from thirty
years ago. :)

What a lousy hold that has been. 8-)

Horrible - the return has been - horrible.

I'm so ashamed. :)

I've also been very lucky - as in REALLY lucky with my long term
investments. We dumped most of our portfolio, with exceptions, on
September 10th, 2001 and intended to reset investments on the 12th.

Whew... :)

Calif Bill wrote:
"hk" wrote in message
. ..
Calif Bill wrote:
"hk" wrote in message
. ..
BAR wrote:
hk wrote:
Damn right. You can trade gold for goods and services. Try that in a
post-revolutionary future with a piece of paper.
I'd rather have a big mean nasty dog, a couple of sidearms and some
rifles and a few shotguns. And, about 40 to 50 thousands rounds of
ammo.


What are you going to do, force a plumber to work at gunpoint?
Go take the gold from some dufus with just a small glock.

Anyone hoarding gold in case of societal collapse will have something
heavier than a GLOCK pointing back at you.

Read "The Road". And where will you spend the gold?


Barter.

"BAR" wrote in message
. ..
Eisboch wrote:
"BAR" wrote in message
. ..
wrote:

Where the hell were you getting a 20% return?
You gotta have you finance guy putting you in the right funds.


I'll tell you, I have to give you guys credit for having the balls to let
a "finance" guy manage your money and/or investments for retirement.

Maybe I could have made more, maybe not, but I like using common sense
and doing it myself rather than rely on some person who makes a living
using your money. Nope. No way.

You have to know your own limitations and investing isn't one of my areas
of interest. I would rather go out and do stuff than sit around and figure
out where to invest my money. I am good at earning it but not investing
it. Besides I have a family member with a Series 7, working in the
personal finance area, who checks over everything.



Other than "just checking", you should avoid following any "buy this/sell
that" advice from that financial person in the family. It's just a bad idea.
It's inevitable that something goes bad eventually, and you don't want to be
looking at each other funny at family gatherings.

I used to work for one of the major brokerage firms. While we were studying
for our exams, we were also gathering names of tentative clients, and the
manager was reviewing them very closely. He told us to NEVER do business
with family members unless it involved products so safe that they were a
total snore. On October 19th, 1987, as he and the older brokers were
panicking & sweating, he stopped by my desk to say "Just got a call. You
passed your series 7, and if you thought I was wrong about doing business
with family, today should eliminate those questions."

When a family member gave us a chunk of money for our newborn son's college
fund, the manager suggested that he talk to my wife about what bad returns
could do to our dinner conversations. That was a good idea. She needed a
second voice to adjust her expectations. Fortunately, the worst I did while
managing his money was a couple of investments that were a little boring.
Any other family members I worked with were limited to stuff like AAA rated
insured munis, fed paper, or A+ or better corporate bonds.

The endless baked ziti and warm Genny beer still made family gatherings a
trying experience, but at least there were no financial arguments.

"Calif Bill" wrote in message
...

"JoeSpareBedroom" wrote in message
...
"BAR" wrote in message
. ..
hk wrote:
JoeSpareBedroom wrote:
"hk" wrote in message
. ..
JoeSpareBedroom wrote:
"hk" wrote in message
news wrote:
On Tue, 22 Jan 2008 08:50:19 -0500, hk
wrote:

IBM is still in business?
They actually opened a couple bucks higher today. It is still
about
16-17 bucks off the 52 week high. I am still not sure what they do
these days
Except for two stocks, we got out of the stock market years ago and
don't really pay any attention to it, except to chuckle over its
vagaries and the belief anyone pays to its "integrity."

What a silly generalization.
Perhaps you believe in the "generally accepted accounting practices"
of listed companies. We don't.


OK. What investments do you use which have consistently stayed ahead
of inflation?


These days, commercial real estate for income and appreciation, and
some raw land options which we picked up and exercised in the early
1990s. Every couple of years we sell off a lot and at some point, we'll
probably sell the remaining lots to a respectable architect/developer.
We've done very well with the land speculation. :-)

We also bought gold in the low $400s. Not certificates, coins. And we
have some money invested in private businesses, a real speculation on
our part, but the bookkeepers are honest.

Your land speculation is just that speculation. I could take stock in a
publicly traded company and turn it into cash money tomorrow. You land
sale has to wait for a buyer and the subsequent deal to actually go
through.

Why would you buy gold coins? Are you digging a bomb shelter in your
backyard too?

Liquid assets, let me repeat that liquid assets.


For what type of money? Good luck answering this question. Hint: Trump


Trump was lucky. Sort of like the present mortgage meltdown. The
Government is going to bail the people who borrowed too much money. Trump
was able to borrow way over his head. The banks had to work with him to
save his ass. They could not call the loans. If they called the loans,
they had to write off enough money they would not meet capitalization
requirements by the Fed. And luckily for both the banks and Trump, the
economy came back and saved both their asses. Left Trump very rich, but
was more luck than smarts that he ended up rich.


The fact that he had those banking relationships is a perfect illustration
of why real estate is often a time bomb for small players who do NOT have
strong enough financial backing. But, lack of liquidity alone is not a good
reason to avoid an investment. And, some investors add a 2nd definition to
liquidity: "Can I sell without losing my shirt?" You can lose your shirt
selling AAA-rated insured muni bonds in certain situations. They'll sell
fast, which fits one definition of liquidity. But, it will hurt.

"hk" wrote in message
. ..
Calif Bill wrote:
"BAR" wrote in message
. ..
hk wrote:
JoeSpareBedroom wrote:
"hk" wrote in message
. ..
JoeSpareBedroom wrote:
"hk" wrote in message
news wrote:
On Tue, 22 Jan 2008 08:50:19 -0500, hk
wrote:

IBM is still in business?
They actually opened a couple bucks higher today. It is still
about
16-17 bucks off the 52 week high. I am still not sure what they do
these days
Except for two stocks, we got out of the stock market years ago and
don't really pay any attention to it, except to chuckle over its
vagaries and the belief anyone pays to its "integrity."
What a silly generalization.
Perhaps you believe in the "generally accepted accounting practices"
of listed companies. We don't.

OK. What investments do you use which have consistently stayed ahead
of inflation?

These days, commercial real estate for income and appreciation, and
some raw land options which we picked up and exercised in the early
1990s. Every couple of years we sell off a lot and at some point, we'll
probably sell the remaining lots to a respectable architect/developer.
We've done very well with the land speculation. :-)

We also bought gold in the low $400s. Not certificates, coins. And we
have some money invested in private businesses, a real speculation on
our part, but the bookkeepers are honest.
Your land speculation is just that speculation. I could take stock in a
publicly traded company and turn it into cash money tomorrow. You land
sale has to wait for a buyer and the subsequent deal to actually go
through.

Why would you buy gold coins? Are you digging a bomb shelter in your
backyard too?

Liquid assets, let me repeat that liquid assets.

Physical gold sucks as an asset for protection. Go with an ETF like GLD.
Sells for 1/10 of an ounce of gold a share. Very liquid, and gives you
the gold tracking.


Under a worse case scenario, the only thing you are going to be able to do
with an ETF is wipe your butt.

Do I think this country is going to come apart at the seams and devolve
into a violent revolution? You betcha. Maybe not in my lifetime, but the
devolution is a lot closer than I ever thought it will be. Real gold will
smooth the way of some of the survivors.


OK. The country melts down, you have gold coins, and you want to buy food
from a farmer who was lucky enough to have seeds. Who determines what the
gold is worth?

JoeSpareBedroom wrote:
"hk" wrote in message
. ..
Calif Bill wrote:
"BAR" wrote in message
. ..
hk wrote:
JoeSpareBedroom wrote:
"hk" wrote in message
. ..
JoeSpareBedroom wrote:
"hk" wrote in message
news wrote:
On Tue, 22 Jan 2008 08:50:19 -0500, hk
wrote:

IBM is still in business?
They actually opened a couple bucks higher today. It is still
about
16-17 bucks off the 52 week high. I am still not sure what they do
these days
Except for two stocks, we got out of the stock market years ago and
don't really pay any attention to it, except to chuckle over its
vagaries and the belief anyone pays to its "integrity."
What a silly generalization.
Perhaps you believe in the "generally accepted accounting practices"
of listed companies. We don't.
OK. What investments do you use which have consistently stayed ahead
of inflation?

These days, commercial real estate for income and appreciation, and
some raw land options which we picked up and exercised in the early
1990s. Every couple of years we sell off a lot and at some point, we'll
probably sell the remaining lots to a respectable architect/developer.
We've done very well with the land speculation. :-)

We also bought gold in the low $400s. Not certificates, coins. And we
have some money invested in private businesses, a real speculation on
our part, but the bookkeepers are honest.
Your land speculation is just that speculation. I could take stock in a
publicly traded company and turn it into cash money tomorrow. You land
sale has to wait for a buyer and the subsequent deal to actually go
through.

Why would you buy gold coins? Are you digging a bomb shelter in your
backyard too?

Liquid assets, let me repeat that liquid assets.
Physical gold sucks as an asset for protection. Go with an ETF like GLD.
Sells for 1/10 of an ounce of gold a share. Very liquid, and gives you
the gold tracking.

Under a worse case scenario, the only thing you are going to be able to do
with an ETF is wipe your butt.

Do I think this country is going to come apart at the seams and devolve
into a violent revolution? You betcha. Maybe not in my lifetime, but the
devolution is a lot closer than I ever thought it will be. Real gold will
smooth the way of some of the survivors.


OK. The country melts down, you have gold coins, and you want to buy food
from a farmer who was lucky enough to have seeds. Who determines what the
gold is worth?




If there is no acceptable government issued currency, we're back to
barter. You want to barter slips of paper or chunks of gold?

"hk" wrote in message
. ..
JoeSpareBedroom wrote:
"hk" wrote in message
. ..
Calif Bill wrote:
"BAR" wrote in message
. ..
hk wrote:
JoeSpareBedroom wrote:
"hk" wrote in message
. ..
JoeSpareBedroom wrote:
"hk" wrote in message
news wrote:
On Tue, 22 Jan 2008 08:50:19 -0500, hk
wrote:

IBM is still in business?
They actually opened a couple bucks higher today. It is still
about
16-17 bucks off the 52 week high. I am still not sure what they
do
these days
Except for two stocks, we got out of the stock market years ago
and don't really pay any attention to it, except to chuckle over
its vagaries and the belief anyone pays to its "integrity."
What a silly generalization.
Perhaps you believe in the "generally accepted accounting
practices" of listed companies. We don't.
OK. What investments do you use which have consistently stayed ahead
of inflation?

These days, commercial real estate for income and appreciation, and
some raw land options which we picked up and exercised in the early
1990s. Every couple of years we sell off a lot and at some point,
we'll probably sell the remaining lots to a respectable
architect/developer. We've done very well with the land speculation.
:-)

We also bought gold in the low $400s. Not certificates, coins. And we
have some money invested in private businesses, a real speculation on
our part, but the bookkeepers are honest.
Your land speculation is just that speculation. I could take stock in
a publicly traded company and turn it into cash money tomorrow. You
land sale has to wait for a buyer and the subsequent deal to actually
go through.

Why would you buy gold coins? Are you digging a bomb shelter in your
backyard too?

Liquid assets, let me repeat that liquid assets.
Physical gold sucks as an asset for protection. Go with an ETF like
GLD. Sells for 1/10 of an ounce of gold a share. Very liquid, and
gives you the gold tracking.

Under a worse case scenario, the only thing you are going to be able to
do with an ETF is wipe your butt.

Do I think this country is going to come apart at the seams and devolve
into a violent revolution? You betcha. Maybe not in my lifetime, but the
devolution is a lot closer than I ever thought it will be. Real gold
will smooth the way of some of the survivors.


OK. The country melts down, you have gold coins, and you want to buy food
from a farmer who was lucky enough to have seeds. Who determines what the
gold is worth?


If there is no acceptable government issued currency, we're back to
barter. You want to barter slips of paper or chunks of gold?


Since neither currency would have any firm value at that time, I'd choose
the lighter version, and save my back muscles for more important things,
like food and ammo.

JoeSpareBedroom wrote:
"hk" wrote in message
. ..
JoeSpareBedroom wrote:
"hk" wrote in message
. ..
Calif Bill wrote:
"BAR" wrote in message
. ..
hk wrote:
JoeSpareBedroom wrote:
"hk" wrote in message
. ..
JoeSpareBedroom wrote:
"hk" wrote in message
news wrote:
On Tue, 22 Jan 2008 08:50:19 -0500, hk
wrote:

IBM is still in business?
They actually opened a couple bucks higher today. It is still
about
16-17 bucks off the 52 week high. I am still not sure what they
do
these days
Except for two stocks, we got out of the stock market years ago
and don't really pay any attention to it, except to chuckle over
its vagaries and the belief anyone pays to its "integrity."
What a silly generalization.
Perhaps you believe in the "generally accepted accounting
practices" of listed companies. We don't.
OK. What investments do you use which have consistently stayed ahead
of inflation?

These days, commercial real estate for income and appreciation, and
some raw land options which we picked up and exercised in the early
1990s. Every couple of years we sell off a lot and at some point,
we'll probably sell the remaining lots to a respectable
architect/developer. We've done very well with the land speculation.
:-)

We also bought gold in the low $400s. Not certificates, coins. And we
have some money invested in private businesses, a real speculation on
our part, but the bookkeepers are honest.
Your land speculation is just that speculation. I could take stock in
a publicly traded company and turn it into cash money tomorrow. You
land sale has to wait for a buyer and the subsequent deal to actually
go through.

Why would you buy gold coins? Are you digging a bomb shelter in your
backyard too?

Liquid assets, let me repeat that liquid assets.
Physical gold sucks as an asset for protection. Go with an ETF like
GLD. Sells for 1/10 of an ounce of gold a share. Very liquid, and
gives you the gold tracking.
Under a worse case scenario, the only thing you are going to be able to
do with an ETF is wipe your butt.

Do I think this country is going to come apart at the seams and devolve
into a violent revolution? You betcha. Maybe not in my lifetime, but the
devolution is a lot closer than I ever thought it will be. Real gold
will smooth the way of some of the survivors.

OK. The country melts down, you have gold coins, and you want to buy food
from a farmer who was lucky enough to have seeds. Who determines what the
gold is worth?

If there is no acceptable government issued currency, we're back to
barter. You want to barter slips of paper or chunks of gold?


Since neither currency would have any firm value at that time, I'd choose
the lighter version, and save my back muscles for more important things,
like food and ammo.




Gold always has and has had a pretty high intrinsic value.

On Wed, 23 Jan 2008 07:43:32 -0500, hk wrote:


If there is no acceptable government issued currency, we're back to
barter. You want to barter slips of paper or chunks of gold?

Pizza.

Pizza will become the defacto currency.

Short Wave Sportfishing wrote:
On Wed, 23 Jan 2008 07:43:32 -0500, hk wrote:

If there is no acceptable government issued currency, we're back to
barter. You want to barter slips of paper or chunks of gold?

Pizza.

Pizza will become the defacto currency.



Plain or mozz?