Having a small company that is involved in large, capital equipment type
contracts has certain advantages. One of them, that I noticed years ago, is
that the level of new orders almost always reflects an accurate prediction
of which way the general economy was heading, usually about 6 months before
it became a current topic of discussion in the media.

Last year my former company (now my oldest son's) had a tough year with a
major slowdown in new order activity and, in some cases, cancellation or
postponement of planned orders by several customers. The situation was not
unique to the company as many others involved in similar, high cost capital
equipment businesses experienced the same slowdown.

This has all changed. In the past 30 days the company has received over $6M
in new contracts and the quoting activity for more has picked up
substantially. If this continues, and past history says it will, 2008 will
be a very busy year. I'll betcha that by May or June all the talk will be
about how robust the US economy is.

Eisboch

On Tue, 1 Jan 2008 07:31:23 -0500, "Eisboch" wrote:

Having a small company that is involved in large, capital equipment type
contracts has certain advantages. One of them, that I noticed years ago, is
that the level of new orders almost always reflects an accurate prediction
of which way the general economy was heading, usually about 6 months before
it became a current topic of discussion in the media.

Last year my former company (now my oldest son's) had a tough year with a
major slowdown in new order activity and, in some cases, cancellation or
postponement of planned orders by several customers. The situation was not
unique to the company as many others involved in similar, high cost capital
equipment businesses experienced the same slowdown.

This has all changed. In the past 30 days the company has received over $6M
in new contracts and the quoting activity for more has picked up
substantially. If this continues, and past history says it will, 2008 will
be a very busy year. I'll betcha that by May or June all the talk will be
about how robust the US economy is.

As you know, my good friend who is in the high end machining business,
second year, has enough orders to keep his shop running for the next
year flat out and is looking to hire four more machinists by the end
of January because he's gotten some major RFPs. He's already ordered
some new milling and grinding equipment for delivery in late March.

Personally, I was concerned about the housing slowdown, but judging by
the activity selling our four rental properties, that hasn't happened
at all. We've sold two of them at the asking price with none of that
"closing costs" discount crap - both to non-owner occupied investors
and tomorrow afternoon I'm showing the other two to some folks
interested in owner occupied one of them has already made a "verbal"
offer at asking price pending inspection.

The dealer that I buy my boats/engines from hasn't been doing so well
in the sales department, but this is the first year he hasn't had to
lay off his mechanics in the service department for lack of things to
do. Normally, he lays them off for a month - mid January to mid
February.

On the other hand, car/truck sales suck big time from what I'm
hearing.

I think overall, we're doing fine - just readjusting to a different
paradigm.

"Eisboch" wrote in message
news
Having a small company that is involved in large, capital equipment type
contracts has certain advantages. One of them, that I noticed years ago,
is that the level of new orders almost always reflects an accurate
prediction of which way the general economy was heading, usually about 6
months before it became a current topic of discussion in the media.

Last year my former company (now my oldest son's) had a tough year with a
major slowdown in new order activity and, in some cases, cancellation or
postponement of planned orders by several customers. The situation was
not unique to the company as many others involved in similar, high cost
capital equipment businesses experienced the same slowdown.

This has all changed. In the past 30 days the company has received over
$6M in new contracts and the quoting activity for more has picked up
substantially. If this continues, and past history says it will, 2008
will be a very busy year. I'll betcha that by May or June all the talk
will be about how robust the US economy is.

Eisboch

Yeah right. "ALL" the talk in an election year will be about the robust US
economy, particularly in this venue. :-)

I sure hope your favorite leading indicator is right on track again this
time. Enough is enough.

D.Duck wrote:
"Eisboch" wrote in message
news
Having a small company that is involved in large, capital equipment type
contracts has certain advantages. One of them, that I noticed years ago,
is that the level of new orders almost always reflects an accurate
prediction of which way the general economy was heading, usually about 6
months before it became a current topic of discussion in the media.

Last year my former company (now my oldest son's) had a tough year with a
major slowdown in new order activity and, in some cases, cancellation or
postponement of planned orders by several customers. The situation was
not unique to the company as many others involved in similar, high cost
capital equipment businesses experienced the same slowdown.

This has all changed. In the past 30 days the company has received over
$6M in new contracts and the quoting activity for more has picked up
substantially. If this continues, and past history says it will, 2008
will be a very busy year. I'll betcha that by May or June all the talk
will be about how robust the US economy is.

Eisboch

Yeah right. "ALL" the talk in an election year will be about the robust US
economy, particularly in this venue. :-)

I sure hope your favorite leading indicator is right on track again this
time. Enough is enough.



House sales up in November! If you are so inclined it is time to go
rental property shopping.

Eisboch wrote:
I'll betcha that by May or June all the talk will be
about how robust the US economy is.

Eisboch




In the face of another half million American families losing their
homes, the creation of mostly "McJob" jobs, a few million more Americans
without health insurance, slumping retail sales, and a few more cuts in
the prime rate that have no impact?

Are you pimping for a job in the remains of the Bush Administration? :}

"HK" wrote in message
...
Eisboch wrote:
I'll betcha that by May or June all the talk will be about how robust the
US economy is.

Eisboch


In the face of another half million American families losing their homes,
the creation of mostly "McJob" jobs, a few million more Americans without
health insurance, slumping retail sales, and a few more cuts in the prime
rate that have no impact?

Are you pimping for a job in the remains of the Bush Administration? :}

Heh. Hardly.
Just reporting a promising trend amidst all the doom and gloom we get
saturated with everyday.

Eisboch

On Tue, 1 Jan 2008 09:39:29 -0500, "Eisboch" wrote:


"HK" wrote in message
...
Eisboch wrote:
I'll betcha that by May or June all the talk will be about how robust the
US economy is.

Eisboch


In the face of another half million American families losing their homes,
the creation of mostly "McJob" jobs, a few million more Americans without
health insurance, slumping retail sales, and a few more cuts in the prime
rate that have no impact?

Are you pimping for a job in the remains of the Bush Administration? :}

Heh. Hardly.
Just reporting a promising trend amidst all the doom and gloom we get
saturated with everyday.

Think of the children.

Um...

Sorry - different thread.

I watch and listen to CNBC a lot during the day and it's interesting
the opinions you get that go from full blown global depression to full
bore cheerleading for recovery.

And everybody has stats and anecdotal evidence to back it up.

If the experts don't know, who the hell does? You have to rely on
anecdotal evidence and mine is pretty positive. I know one engineer
who is out of a job and that's by personal choice - he's playing
caretaker to his six month old grand daughter and having a blast doing
it. Seriously, I've been out of the game for 14 years and I'm still
getting feelers from head hunters - I'm going to be 62 in July - how
bad can it be?

I know it's gotta be tougher for people in lower economic brackets -
just the cost of gas to get to work has to have an impact on
discretionary spending - I understand that. And maybe my view is
skewed because I'm more likely to notice job ads for people with some
technical skills. Electricians, plumbers, carpenters I know are doing
ok - keeping the bills paid and busy all the time - I just don't know.

Eisboch wrote:
"HK" wrote in message
...
Eisboch wrote:
I'll betcha that by May or June all the talk will be about how robust the
US economy is.

Eisboch


In the face of another half million American families losing their homes,
the creation of mostly "McJob" jobs, a few million more Americans without
health insurance, slumping retail sales, and a few more cuts in the prime
rate that have no impact?

Are you pimping for a job in the remains of the Bush Administration? :}

Heh. Hardly.
Just reporting a promising trend amidst all the doom and gloom we get
saturated with everyday.

Eisboch

Well, I've said this before, that if Ebay is any kind of an economic
barometer, I've noticed that "used" boats are selling higher than the
same compatable crafts did a couple years ago. This winter which is
usually seems to be a buyers market. Boats are tending to sell for
better than in the spring time when people are boat hungry with tax
refund checks in hand.

Tim wrote:

Eisboch wrote:
"HK" wrote in message
...
Eisboch wrote:
I'll betcha that by May or June all the talk will be about how robust the
US economy is.

Eisboch

In the face of another half million American families losing their homes,
the creation of mostly "McJob" jobs, a few million more Americans without
health insurance, slumping retail sales, and a few more cuts in the prime
rate that have no impact?

Are you pimping for a job in the remains of the Bush Administration? :}
Heh. Hardly.
Just reporting a promising trend amidst all the doom and gloom we get
saturated with everyday.

Eisboch

Well, I've said this before, that if Ebay is any kind of an economic
barometer, I've noticed that "used" boats are selling higher than the
same compatable crafts did a couple years ago. This winter which is
usually seems to be a buyers market. Boats are tending to sell for
better than in the spring time when people are boat hungry with tax
refund checks in hand.


There sure seem to be a lot of boats for sale. I passed three on my
visit down to the bay yesterday, and they weren't out there on the edge
of the road last week. Went down to the nearby marina and also saw a lot
of FOR SALE signs, especially on the larger boats. Didn't see or notice
any prices, just a lot of FOR SALE signs.


--
George W. Bush - the 43rd Best President Ever!

I'm suure you're right Harry. Some of those boats get sold, because
some people don't use them enough to have money tied up in them,
especially if they have to pay storage fees etc. or they figure they
can sell it outright and do better than trading them in for a larger/
better craft. Around here paople sell them because they want some 4-
wheeler to go deer hunting or just romping though the woods.

One thing I DON'T see on the used market very much is bass/fishing
style boats. seems that they get used eyar around on the local lakes.
and when they do come up for sale, they don't last in the yard very
long before someone snipes them up really quick.

HK wrote:
Tim wrote:

Eisboch wrote:
"HK" wrote in message
...
Eisboch wrote:
I'll betcha that by May or June all the talk will be about how robust the
US economy is.

Eisboch

In the face of another half million American families losing their homes,
the creation of mostly "McJob" jobs, a few million more Americans without
health insurance, slumping retail sales, and a few more cuts in the prime
rate that have no impact?

Are you pimping for a job in the remains of the Bush Administration? :}
Heh. Hardly.
Just reporting a promising trend amidst all the doom and gloom we get
saturated with everyday.

Eisboch

Well, I've said this before, that if Ebay is any kind of an economic
barometer, I've noticed that "used" boats are selling higher than the
same compatable crafts did a couple years ago. This winter which is
usually seems to be a buyers market. Boats are tending to sell for
better than in the spring time when people are boat hungry with tax
refund checks in hand.


There sure seem to be a lot of boats for sale. I passed three on my
visit down to the bay yesterday, and they weren't out there on the edge
of the road last week. Went down to the nearby marina and also saw a lot
of FOR SALE signs, especially on the larger boats. Didn't see or notice
any prices, just a lot of FOR SALE signs.


--
George W. Bush - the 43rd Best President Ever!