On Tue, 1 Jan 2008 07:31:23 -0500, "Eisboch" wrote:

Having a small company that is involved in large, capital equipment type
contracts has certain advantages. One of them, that I noticed years ago, is
that the level of new orders almost always reflects an accurate prediction
of which way the general economy was heading, usually about 6 months before
it became a current topic of discussion in the media.

Last year my former company (now my oldest son's) had a tough year with a
major slowdown in new order activity and, in some cases, cancellation or
postponement of planned orders by several customers. The situation was not
unique to the company as many others involved in similar, high cost capital
equipment businesses experienced the same slowdown.

This has all changed. In the past 30 days the company has received over $6M
in new contracts and the quoting activity for more has picked up
substantially. If this continues, and past history says it will, 2008 will
be a very busy year. I'll betcha that by May or June all the talk will be
about how robust the US economy is.

As you know, my good friend who is in the high end machining business,
second year, has enough orders to keep his shop running for the next
year flat out and is looking to hire four more machinists by the end
of January because he's gotten some major RFPs. He's already ordered
some new milling and grinding equipment for delivery in late March.

Personally, I was concerned about the housing slowdown, but judging by
the activity selling our four rental properties, that hasn't happened
at all. We've sold two of them at the asking price with none of that
"closing costs" discount crap - both to non-owner occupied investors
and tomorrow afternoon I'm showing the other two to some folks
interested in owner occupied one of them has already made a "verbal"
offer at asking price pending inspection.

The dealer that I buy my boats/engines from hasn't been doing so well
in the sales department, but this is the first year he hasn't had to
lay off his mechanics in the service department for lack of things to
do. Normally, he lays them off for a month - mid January to mid
February.

On the other hand, car/truck sales suck big time from what I'm
hearing.

I think overall, we're doing fine - just readjusting to a different
paradigm.