"NOYB" wrote in message
ink.net...

"DSK" wrote in message
. ..
NOYB wrote:
I've been on the fence on how to advise him. Part of me believes as
you
do: that $340k villa will drop in price once a correction knocks the
speculators out of the market. But if I'm wrong, then where does he
live? If he pays the $340k now, and then it drops, he can just stay in
it until it goes back up again.


Rent cheap and put money into a residential REIT

I don't know anything about REIT's. Can you see 30-50% returns like we're
currently seeing in the real estate market?

Rent is not deductible.

Why can't the brain dead liebrals get it?



And are they any safer than actually owning the real estate?



If the housing market continues to climb fantastically, he'll have a leg
up on affording a place. If it crashes in some places or plateaus in
general, he'll have spread the risk as much as possible.

DSK

"NOYB" wrote in message
nk.net...

"P Fritz" wrote in message
...

"PocoLoco" wrote in message
...
On Tue, 20 Sep 2005 14:35:48 -0400, DSK wrote:

PocoLoco wrote:
Not if he is enjoying the life he is living. Who are you to say what
lifestyle
NYOB would be 'better' enjoying?

Can't read, can you?

Did I say that one particular lifestyle is "better" than another? Why
do
you try to argue with things I didn't say, maybe because the facts are
so consistantly against you?

Answer- I said that NOBBY's financial future would be more secure.

BTW living in debt and letting the rest of society pay for your
extravagant choices is not a conservative lifestyle. NOBBY is
certainly
not the worst example, but he's far from being 'conservative'
fiscally.
And the part I disapprove of is only that he's gambling with his
family's security and he appears to not understand the odds, nor the
risk.

DSK


Well, gosh. Your disapproval probably means a whole lot. His
'lifestyle'
includes living where he will.

He is being the typical liebral.......sticking his nose in everybody
else's
business.

How is "being in debt" forcing society to pay for his lifestyle?

He thinks that the tax deduction that I get for the interest on my home
mortgage is somehow subsidized by the government.

Of course, he fails to realize that it's just my own money that I'm
allowed
to keep.


No ****.......taking advantage of current tax law is not making society
pay..........it simply decreases the theft by society from your wallet.

Rent cheap and put money into a residential REIT


NOYB wrote:
I don't know anything about REIT's. Can you see 30-50% returns like we're
currently seeing in the real estate market?

Nope. But check out the history of people who sink their money into
chasing this years hot returns.



And are they any safer than actually owning the real estate?


Yes, considerably. In the same way and for the same reason that owning
shares in an index fund is safer than owning shares of stock in an
individual company.

DSK

You think retirees with less income than they had when working, who are
looking for less expense, less driving, and closer care, are going to buy
increasingly expensive & expansive homes?


NOYB wrote:
I think you don't have a clear understanding of the average Naples retiree's
financial situation. Less expense isn't exactly a top priority to someone
worth $10, 50 or 100 million.

1,400 properties sold in Collier County for more than $1 million from
January through August of this year.

What that tells me is that the people who are going to make money are
the people who 1- sell those homes and collect commission (and the
appraisers, insurers, etc etc)
2- bought into the market several years ago.

Buying into a hot market because it's going up like a rocket is not
generally how one makes a large profit. Not in the stock market, not in
a crap game, and not in real estate.

The fact that real estate has run up far faster than inflation over the
past few years is a good indication that 1- inflation is going to pick
up (after all housing costs are a big part of the consumer spending
"basket")
2- it is *less* likely to outpace inflation over the coming years
(nothing goes up & up & up forever & ever..



I currently put away $25,000+ per year in qualified pension plans...and have
done so since 1999.

That's a good move. Of course, it really depends on having a gov't that
doesn't simply confiscate wealth from people who were wise enough to
save up (ie a very different gov't from the one we have now).



Water access is very difficult down here. If we had adequate ramps and
marinas, I'd be living in a less expensive house inland.


So, if boating is important to you, move to place where marinas are cheaper.

The most important vote is cast with one's feet.

DSK

There is a place in the upper to middle keys that does that. It's an ok
older motel right on the water, with a good restaurant and the use of a
whaler skiff and outboard is included. The beauty of the place is that
the "offshore reef" is about a half-mile offshore, and that's as far as
you have to go to catch some damned nice fish. I stayed there for a few
days about five years ago. Nice beach, too.

Rainbow Bend Resort just east of Marathon. Not a bad place at all,
stayed there with the family about 5 years ago. The food is good and
we were out in the Whaler every day.

http://www.rainbowbend.com/

If you can remember the community or motel name I'd appreciate it.
Never been to the Keys, but would like to see them.


http://www.rainbowbend.com/

As Harry described... Nothing fancy but we enjoyed our stay.

"Harry Krause" wrote in message
...
NOYB wrote:
"Harry Krause" wrote in message
...
Don White wrote:
Harry Krause wrote:
Maybe NOYB will open a B&B to make ends meet.


Wonder if he'd throw in use of his boat? I wouldn't mind getting some
Florida sun in January or February.

There is a place in the upper to middle keys that does that. It's an ok
older motel right on the water, with a good restaurant and the use of a
whaler skiff and outboard is included. The beauty of the place is that
the "offshore reef" is about a half-mile offshore, and that's as far as
you have to go to catch some damned nice fish. I stayed there for a few
days about five years ago. Nice beach, too.

I lived down here for 4 1/2 years before I went to the Keys. I don't
know what I was thinking. I finally "discovered" them this year, and
have been there twice already since Memorial Day...and I'm going back in
3 weeks. I realized that if I want to head out to deep water to catch
pelagics, it's cheaper and easier to put the boat on the trailer and
drive 3 hours to the Keys with boat in tow. I can be in deep water off
Islamorada in 3 1/2 hours...which is the same time it would take to run
my 25' boat out 110 miles off Naples to reach the 100 fathom mark. And
the fuel spent on the Keys trip is 1/5th what I'd spend running to the
deep water over here.

A better alternative yet, is running across the Alley and launching at
Miami Haulover or Port Everglades. This area is great for snook, tarpon,
grouper, jewfish, sharks, redfish, cobia, and snapper, but if you want
pelagics (dolphin, tuna, billfish) you need to run across to the East
coast or Keys.



I have a friend who launches his Whaler out of Haulover. He lives just
south of there, across the bridge, in Bal Harbour, one or two condos down
from that bridge on the ocean side. When I'm down there, he lets me borrow
the Whaler. You sure don't have to go far out of Haulover to catch some
really nice fish.

It's a sloppy inlet on an outgoing tide and an onshore wind, though.

"DSK" wrote in message
...
You think retirees with less income than they had when working, who are
looking for less expense, less driving, and closer care, are going to buy
increasingly expensive & expansive homes?


NOYB wrote:
I think you don't have a clear understanding of the average Naples
retiree's financial situation. Less expense isn't exactly a top priority
to someone worth $10, 50 or 100 million.

1,400 properties sold in Collier County for more than $1 million from
January through August of this year.

What that tells me is that the people who are going to make money are the
people who 1- sell those homes and collect commission (and the appraisers,
insurers, etc etc)
2- bought into the market several years ago.

Buying into a hot market because it's going up like a rocket is not
generally how one makes a large profit. Not in the stock market, not in a
crap game, and not in real estate.

The fact that real estate has run up far faster than inflation over the
past few years is a good indication that 1- inflation is going to pick up
(after all housing costs are a big part of the consumer spending "basket")
2- it is *less* likely to outpace inflation over the coming years (nothing
goes up & up & up forever & ever..



I currently put away $25,000+ per year in qualified pension plans...and
have done so since 1999.

That's a good move. Of course, it really depends on having a gov't that
doesn't simply confiscate wealth from people who were wise enough to save
up (ie a very different gov't from the one we have now).



Water access is very difficult down here. If we had adequate ramps and
marinas, I'd be living in a less expensive house inland.


So, if boating is important to you, move to place where marinas are
cheaper.

The most important vote is cast with one's feet.

Affordable areas in Florida don't exist anymore. But if by some miracle you
happen to find one, the people living there have no money for
dentistry...nor do most of them have teeth.

wrote in message
oups.com...

NOYB wrote:
wrote in message
ups.com...

NOYB wrote:
"Shortwave Sportfishing" wrote in message
...
On Sun, 18 Sep 2005 17:42:30 GMT, "NOYB" wrote:

When home prices hit the outer stratosphere, the number of potential
buyers
admittedly shrinks. But the Naples luxury market is still in boom
mode,
local agents say, despite forecasts of a housing bubble that some
predict
eventually must burst.

A slowdown?

You will get your turn and sooner than later.

It's already starting up here in NE.

I figure that once the NE slows, we'll soon follow. They'll be a
slowdown,
but never a correction. There are too many baby boomers looking to
retire
down here.

If the typical house in Naples becomes worth 5-7 times as much as a
typical house is worth anywhere else in the country, (and that is what
you seem to predict), those boomers will "look to retire" where it
won't take a nest egg of
$4-5mm just to buy a retirement cottage, and more importantly, where
taxes won't be taking a $30,000/year bite out of pension and social
security earnings.

It's a screw job. You live in a house that is valued at
$XXX,XXX,XXX.00, and you are free to sell it, but if you do and you
have no desire to start a new life in another portion of the country or
move into a beater you will be compelled to spend $XXX,XXX,XXX.00
*plus* to replace it. Put any value you want on the same property, $1
or a $100mm, and as long as you are *consuming*
the property every month by parking your butt in it that money isn't
really working for you. Meanwhile, the county tax collector comes along
and says, "Good news, NOYB, your house has doubled in value in the last
few years and so has the assessment. Here's your walloping bill for the
privilege of consuming a 7-figure house every month."

The Save Our Homes Act limits the increase in property taxes to 3% per
year.


There's a reason that many of the more conservative (there's an
adjective you'll like) financial institutions *do not include* the
value of a personal residence when calculating net worth.

Did you check out "Extraordinary Popular Delusions and the Madness of
Crowds"?
(I particularly like the chapter on the Dutch tulip bulb boom and
bust).

You're comparing a tulip bulb to someone's primary residence?


Yes indeed. During the Dutch tulip bulb frenzy, people became convinced
that tulip bulbs would continue to skyrocket in price, year after year.
Many people
actually *sold* houses, farms, businesses, and what not to invest in
tulip bulbs- and in some cases the proceeds from an entire home or
business proved to be enough to pay for just a single bulb. The 'bigger
fool' theory was in high gear: "It doesn't matter what I pay, the value
of this asset will always
continue to go up and there will be somebody right behind me willing to
pay much more for the same thing almost immediately."

Want to know how much the tulip bulb factor is right now in Naples? It
would be easy to figure out. For how much do houses similar to yours
*rent*, in Naples? Extrapolate a cap rate (return on investment) of 5%.
You get a break right now because rates in general and T-bills are
down- you would normally use 8-10% cap to evaluate a property. Now you
have a picture of what that property is worth based on the amount of
wealth it can produce in a given time period. Renters are a good
barometer in the real estate market becuase they aren't betting on
appreciation, merely paying for the basic economic function of the
house (shelter) every month.


IMO, it's a good time to hold onto matured positions or sell if the
cash in hand looks more attractive than the monthly cash flow. I would
personally be reluctant to buy as we close in on the inevitable market
correction. If prices merely stabilize, then there is some assurance
that the "value" is going to be sustainable. If prices at least
temporarily drop, as they have in many overheated regions during the
last couple of decades, it pays to watch for the apparent "bottom" and
buy then.


Some links:

http://www.stock-market-crash.net/tulip-mania.htm


this one is long, but wirtten by a guy who seems fairly conservative
and it is well thought out:
http://www.washingtonmonthly.com/fea...ace-wells.html


But:

Tulip bulbs can die

You can't live in a tulip bulb and wait until prices rebound.

Tulips can be replaced by roses, lilies, etc.

Only an idiot would sell his house to buy a tulip bulb

"Harry Krause" wrote in message
...
NOYB wrote:
"Harry Krause" wrote in message
...
NOYB wrote:
"Harry Krause" wrote in message
...
Don White wrote:
Harry Krause wrote:
Maybe NOYB will open a B&B to make ends meet.


Wonder if he'd throw in use of his boat? I wouldn't mind getting
some Florida sun in January or February.
There is a place in the upper to middle keys that does that. It's an
ok older motel right on the water, with a good restaurant and the use
of a whaler skiff and outboard is included. The beauty of the place is
that the "offshore reef" is about a half-mile offshore, and that's as
far as you have to go to catch some damned nice fish. I stayed there
for a few days about five years ago. Nice beach, too.
I lived down here for 4 1/2 years before I went to the Keys. I don't
know what I was thinking. I finally "discovered" them this year, and
have been there twice already since Memorial Day...and I'm going back
in 3 weeks. I realized that if I want to head out to deep water to
catch pelagics, it's cheaper and easier to put the boat on the trailer
and drive 3 hours to the Keys with boat in tow. I can be in deep water
off Islamorada in 3 1/2 hours...which is the same time it would take to
run my 25' boat out 110 miles off Naples to reach the 100 fathom mark.
And the fuel spent on the Keys trip is 1/5th what I'd spend running to
the deep water over here.

A better alternative yet, is running across the Alley and launching at
Miami Haulover or Port Everglades. This area is great for snook,
tarpon, grouper, jewfish, sharks, redfish, cobia, and snapper, but if
you want pelagics (dolphin, tuna, billfish) you need to run across to
the East coast or Keys.


I have a friend who launches his Whaler out of Haulover. He lives just
south of there, across the bridge, in Bal Harbour, one or two condos
down from that bridge on the ocean side. When I'm down there, he lets me
borrow the Whaler. You sure don't have to go far out of Haulover to
catch some really nice fish.

It's a sloppy inlet on an outgoing tide and an onshore wind, though.





It's fun watching the inlet water wash up onto the little jetty on the
north side and the retaining wall on the other side. I've seen a few
slower boats get into trouble there.

When I went through it, I was in my 17' Outrage. The boat ahead of me was a
25' Proline and took a wave right over the bow. I trimmed the bow way up,
and jumped through a lull in the waves.



Were you aware there is a nudist beach at the north end of the park there,
or at least there was?

Yes. While tying the boat down in the parking lot for the trip back to
Naples, a couple of guys in G-string banana hammocks went strolling through
the parking lot. Following them was a group teenage kids whistling at them
and hootin' and hollerin'. Any curiosity that I may have had to walk across
the street and take a look left me at that moment.




Good place to buy and fly kites, too.

If you go back to the area, ask someone for directions to the Little
Havana Cuban restaurant, which is only a couple miles from there, a bit
south, and across the causeway. Great authentic Cuban food, pretty
reasonable. It's on Biscayne Boulevard. Good selection of beers, too.
It's a family restaurant; always lots of Cuban families there with kids.
We were in the front dining room one evening and got invited to join an
anniversary party at the next table.

I trailer the boat when I head over there...so stopping to park and eat is
not an option.