On Sat, 1 Mar 2008 20:25:28 -0500, "Eisboch" wrote:


"Short Wave Sportfishing" wrote in message
.. .
On Sat, 1 Mar 2008 14:32:58 -0800 (PST),
wrote:

Everyone says 4 dollars... I will throw my prediction in, I think we
will test 5 dollars a gallon before the end of the year.

I'll take that bet. I'll say that gas will be back at $2.34/gal by
the end of the year.

And oil will be down around $60/bl.

I don't know about that. There's nothing on the horizon to influence it
that way. I'd like to hear your reasoning.

It's pretty simple - it's a huge commodity bubble. There is absoutely
nothing, and I mean nothing, to support these levels in any sense of
the word. It's too much money chasing too little profit - a sort of
currency inflation if you will. If I'm right, and I'm pretty sure I
am, economic data will provide the catalyst for the crash - sometime
around the middle to the end of July.

Supplies will rise due to decreased demand. Take this past week for
example - crude stocks are at six year highs and gas is at a four year
high - distilates are at normal levels - and every one of them
experienced a increase in price.

It's just not logical, sustainable or in any way makeing economic
sense. And when it doesn't make economic sense, it's a bubble.

Secondarily, the dollars decline is also unsupported against the Euro,
the Loonie and Yen - there is no actual economic reason why the Euro
is reaching the values it reached this past week, same with the other
currencies we use as a measuring stick for relative value. Eventually,
the pendulum will swing back to the safest currency in the world's
economic structure the dollar. This will also force the price of oil
to return to more rational levels.

There will be a glut - you're just starting to see it and by July, it
will be not be pretty. I'm willing to say July - may be as last as
September, but it will happen and it will be quick when it does.

In a way, I think it would be good for oil to hover around $100 a barrel for
a couple of years or more. In the past, every time there has been a sharp
uptick in the price of oil a bunch of lip service has been given to finding
energy "alternatives" and to decrease or eliminate our dependence on oil.
But, as soon as the price retreats back to half of the increase, all the
enthusiasm goes away and it's back to business as usual.

I agree, but if it does, there will be a significant economic
dislocation.

The current spike in oil prices has produced some serious commitments by
industry (more so than governments) to develop alternative energy sources.
(the government still thinks "corn" is the answer). The auto industry is
tripping over themselves introducing high mileage hybrids. There is a
serious revival of interest and new developments in solar power that are
very promising and exciting. I was just reading about a new auto soon to
be introduced by Volkswagen that is a diesel/electric hybrid (catches my
attention!) that offers very good performance while delivering 60+ mpg.

About freakin' time - I've been saying that for years.

For the first time, it seems like the consuming public is having a mind set
change and are beginning to accept and even demand highly efficient
products. There's even a growing acceptance of the need for new nuclear
power plants.

Agreed. Nukes are the way to go. Unfortunately, the morons in the
environmental movement are hell bent and determined to derail anything
nuclear.

We really can't afford to screw up again and treat this oil price cycle as
another temporary event because the next cycle will probably put us out of
business.

Agreed.

"JoeSpareBedroom" wrote in message
...
"Eisboch" wrote in message
...

"JoeSpareBedroom" wrote in message
...
"HK" wrote in message
...


"Big Oil" helps set the price of the crude it buys. You think it
doesn't have "partners" sitting on the OPEC committees?


I'm sure they do. But, there are also speculators at work, in the exact
same way speculators dick with the price of stocks to the point where
their prices are completely disconnected from physical & financial
reality.

Speculative nonsense:


Think back. Although laughable when compared to current values, the
price of oil quadrupled during the oil "shortage" crisis in the early
70's on Nixon's watch. Later that decade, under Carter it doubled
again in less than 12 months.

Neither had anything to do with Wall Street, Dick Cheney or secret "Big
Oil" meetings with OPEC.

Eisboch



That was then. This is now. And (separate issue), in this discussion, I'm
not concerned with any particular politician.

In the long list of things you buy regularly, can you think of 5 or 6
whose prices are determined by speculators, causing almost daily price
swings? I'm in the grocery biz, and I handle about 500 different products.
I don't see this happening.

How about shoes, or anything else you buy?


I am on a conservation kick. I go barefoot.

Seriously, at 100 bucks or so a barrel, I don't see daily price swings of a
few dollars per barrel as being very significant.
There's something more than speculators causing prices to more than double
in two years. I admit, I don't fully understand how oil prices are "set"
despite JimH's links. Seems to me that those who control the goods
determine the price.

Eisboch

On Mar 1, 8:13*pm, Short Wave Sportfishing wrote:
On Sat, 1 Mar 2008 16:50:23 -0800 (PST),





wrote:
On Mar 1, 7:41*pm, "Canuck57" wrote:
"Short Wave Sportfishing" wrote in messagenews:38sjs3h82ded28g7gqgm79uq7djnd2ag6e@4ax .com...

On Sat, 1 Mar 2008 14:32:58 -0800 (PST),
wrote:

Everyone says 4 dollars... I will throw my prediction in, I think we
will test 5 dollars a gallon before the end of the year.

I'll take that bet. *I'll say that gas will be back at $2.34/gal by
the end of the year.

And oil will be down around $60/bl.

What do you base that on?

Fantasy what?

If I knew you, I would gave you 3:1 odds against and an $10,000 wager you
are wrong.

Holy crap, I was just going to bet him and the loser has to answer the
drunken dougies questions for a week

For you and you only.

If oil doesn't drop to around - say plus 5/minus4 - $60 by the end of
the year, I will give you that boat I told you about a month or so
ago.

There - right out in public. *:)- Hide quoted text -

- Show quoted text -

Holy crap, bookmarked.....

On Mar 1, 8:58*pm, "JimH" wrote:
"Short Wave Sportfishing" wrote in messagenewsrvjs3h8tpiniee7mo6n75kuh5rroe26s5@4ax .com...





On Sat, 1 Mar 2008 16:50:23 -0800 (PST),
wrote:

On Mar 1, 7:41 pm, "Canuck57" wrote:
"Short Wave Sportfishing" wrote in
messagenews:38sjs3h82ded28g7gqgm79uq7djnd2ag6e@4ax .com...

On Sat, 1 Mar 2008 14:32:58 -0800 (PST),
wrote:

Everyone says 4 dollars... I will throw my prediction in, I think we
will test 5 dollars a gallon before the end of the year.

I'll take that bet. I'll say that gas will be back at $2.34/gal by
the end of the year.

And oil will be down around $60/bl.

What do you base that on?

Fantasy what?

If I knew you, I would gave you 3:1 odds against and an $10,000 wager
you
are wrong.

Holy crap, I was just going to bet him and the loser has to answer the
drunken dougies questions for a week

For you and you only.

If oil doesn't drop to around - say plus 5/minus4 - $60 by the end of
the year, I will give you that boat I told you about a month or so
ago.

There - right out in public. *:)

Smile Scott...............you are the new owner of one of Tom's boats.

What make, model and length is it?- Hide quoted text -

- Show quoted text -

I ain't sayin' a frekin' word....

"Short Wave Sportfishing" wrote in message
...

On Sat, 1 Mar 2008 20:25:28 -0500, "Eisboch" wrote:



I don't know about that. There's nothing on the horizon to influence it
that way. I'd like to hear your reasoning.

It's pretty simple - it's a huge commodity bubble. There is absoutely
nothing, and I mean nothing, to support these levels in any sense of
the word. It's too much money chasing too little profit - a sort of
currency inflation if you will. If I'm right, and I'm pretty sure I
am, economic data will provide the catalyst for the crash - sometime
around the middle to the end of July.



Hmmmmm..... It sounds like you are basically in agreement with Doug.
Did hell just freeze over?

Eisboch

"Eisboch" wrote in message
...

"JoeSpareBedroom" wrote in message
...
"Eisboch" wrote in message
...

"JoeSpareBedroom" wrote in message
...
"HK" wrote in message
...


"Big Oil" helps set the price of the crude it buys. You think it
doesn't have "partners" sitting on the OPEC committees?


I'm sure they do. But, there are also speculators at work, in the exact
same way speculators dick with the price of stocks to the point where
their prices are completely disconnected from physical & financial
reality.

Speculative nonsense:


Think back. Although laughable when compared to current values, the
price of oil quadrupled during the oil "shortage" crisis in the early
70's on Nixon's watch. Later that decade, under Carter it doubled
again in less than 12 months.

Neither had anything to do with Wall Street, Dick Cheney or secret "Big
Oil" meetings with OPEC.

Eisboch



That was then. This is now. And (separate issue), in this discussion, I'm
not concerned with any particular politician.

In the long list of things you buy regularly, can you think of 5 or 6
whose prices are determined by speculators, causing almost daily price
swings? I'm in the grocery biz, and I handle about 500 different
products. I don't see this happening.

How about shoes, or anything else you buy?


I am on a conservation kick. I go barefoot.

Seriously, at 100 bucks or so a barrel, I don't see daily price swings of
a few dollars per barrel as being very significant.
There's something more than speculators causing prices to more than double
in two years. I admit, I don't fully understand how oil prices are "set"
despite JimH's links. Seems to me that those who control the goods
determine the price.

Eisboch


It's all the factors working together. Demand is part of it, but not all of
it. The problem is that people will gamble on absolutely anything. If we
added chick pea futures to the other available via the commodities
exchanges, people would be gambling on chick peas.

"Eisboch" wrote in message
...

"Short Wave Sportfishing" wrote in message
...

On Sat, 1 Mar 2008 20:25:28 -0500, "Eisboch" wrote:



I don't know about that. There's nothing on the horizon to influence it
that way. I'd like to hear your reasoning.

It's pretty simple - it's a huge commodity bubble. There is absoutely
nothing, and I mean nothing, to support these levels in any sense of
the word. It's too much money chasing too little profit - a sort of
currency inflation if you will. If I'm right, and I'm pretty sure I
am, economic data will provide the catalyst for the crash - sometime
around the middle to the end of July.



Hmmmmm..... It sounds like you are basically in agreement with Doug.
Did hell just freeze over?

Eisboch


He's right, and the same kind of bubble is about to burst for ethanol.

"JoeSpareBedroom" wrote in message
...
"Eisboch" wrote in message
...

"Short Wave Sportfishing" wrote in message
...

On Sat, 1 Mar 2008 20:25:28 -0500, "Eisboch" wrote:



I don't know about that. There's nothing on the horizon to influence
it
that way. I'd like to hear your reasoning.

It's pretty simple - it's a huge commodity bubble. There is absoutely
nothing, and I mean nothing, to support these levels in any sense of
the word. It's too much money chasing too little profit - a sort of
currency inflation if you will. If I'm right, and I'm pretty sure I
am, economic data will provide the catalyst for the crash - sometime
around the middle to the end of July.



Hmmmmm..... It sounds like you are basically in agreement with Doug.
Did hell just freeze over?

Eisboch


He's right, and the same kind of bubble is about to burst for ethanol.


*That* I certainly agree with. A goofy idea, prematurely adopted, run
amuck.

Eisboch

"Short Wave Sportfishing" wrote in message
news
On Sat, 1 Mar 2008 16:50:23 -0800 (PST),
wrote:

On Mar 1, 7:41 pm, "Canuck57" wrote:
"Short Wave Sportfishing" wrote in
messagenews:38sjs3h82ded28g7gqgm79uq7djnd2ag6e@4ax .com...

On Sat, 1 Mar 2008 14:32:58 -0800 (PST),
wrote:

Everyone says 4 dollars... I will throw my prediction in, I think we
will test 5 dollars a gallon before the end of the year.

I'll take that bet. I'll say that gas will be back at $2.34/gal by
the end of the year.

And oil will be down around $60/bl.

What do you base that on?

Fantasy what?

If I knew you, I would gave you 3:1 odds against and an $10,000 wager
you
are wrong.

Holy crap, I was just going to bet him and the loser has to answer the
drunken dougies questions for a week

For you and you only.

If oil doesn't drop to around - say plus 5/minus4 - $60 by the end of
the year, I will give you that boat I told you about a month or so
ago.

There - right out in public. :)

Good, but what is your basis of logic?

1/2 the oil harvested costs more than $60 barrel to get. So the only way it
could decrease is one of the following.

US government Fed/Congress admits the US currency isn't worth 2 pence to the
dollar and re-states the currency on a 4:1 or higher basis. Have to cover
the next expected 20% drop in the USD value.

Or all of a sudden more than 1/2 the worlds consumption is not there but the
supply chain is intact.

Neither aforementioned is likely, except the devaluation part. Bet by fall
$125 USD per barrel would be about even odds.

"HK" wrote in message
...
Canuck57 wrote:
"Short Wave Sportfishing" wrote in message
...
On Sat, 1 Mar 2008 14:32:58 -0800 (PST),
wrote:

Everyone says 4 dollars... I will throw my prediction in, I think we
will test 5 dollars a gallon before the end of the year.
I'll take that bet. I'll say that gas will be back at $2.34/gal by
the end of the year.

And oil will be down around $60/bl.

What do you base that on?

Fantasy what?

If I knew you, I would gave you 3:1 odds against and an $10,000 wager you
are wrong.


I'll bet that Dicque Cheney is working right now with his "BIG OIL"
buddies to try to knock the price of gas down temporarily two weeks before
the November elections.

What, to $4 a gallon?