"Short Wave Sportfishing" wrote in message
...

On Sat, 1 Mar 2008 20:25:28 -0500, "Eisboch" wrote:



I don't know about that. There's nothing on the horizon to influence it
that way. I'd like to hear your reasoning.

It's pretty simple - it's a huge commodity bubble. There is absoutely
nothing, and I mean nothing, to support these levels in any sense of
the word. It's too much money chasing too little profit - a sort of
currency inflation if you will. If I'm right, and I'm pretty sure I
am, economic data will provide the catalyst for the crash - sometime
around the middle to the end of July.



Hmmmmm..... It sounds like you are basically in agreement with Doug.
Did hell just freeze over?

Eisboch

"Eisboch" wrote in message
...

"Short Wave Sportfishing" wrote in message
...

On Sat, 1 Mar 2008 20:25:28 -0500, "Eisboch" wrote:



I don't know about that. There's nothing on the horizon to influence it
that way. I'd like to hear your reasoning.

It's pretty simple - it's a huge commodity bubble. There is absoutely
nothing, and I mean nothing, to support these levels in any sense of
the word. It's too much money chasing too little profit - a sort of
currency inflation if you will. If I'm right, and I'm pretty sure I
am, economic data will provide the catalyst for the crash - sometime
around the middle to the end of July.



Hmmmmm..... It sounds like you are basically in agreement with Doug.
Did hell just freeze over?

Eisboch


He's right, and the same kind of bubble is about to burst for ethanol.

"JoeSpareBedroom" wrote in message
...
"Eisboch" wrote in message
...

"Short Wave Sportfishing" wrote in message
...

On Sat, 1 Mar 2008 20:25:28 -0500, "Eisboch" wrote:



I don't know about that. There's nothing on the horizon to influence
it
that way. I'd like to hear your reasoning.

It's pretty simple - it's a huge commodity bubble. There is absoutely
nothing, and I mean nothing, to support these levels in any sense of
the word. It's too much money chasing too little profit - a sort of
currency inflation if you will. If I'm right, and I'm pretty sure I
am, economic data will provide the catalyst for the crash - sometime
around the middle to the end of July.



Hmmmmm..... It sounds like you are basically in agreement with Doug.
Did hell just freeze over?

Eisboch


He's right, and the same kind of bubble is about to burst for ethanol.


*That* I certainly agree with. A goofy idea, prematurely adopted, run
amuck.

Eisboch

On Sat, 1 Mar 2008 21:48:00 -0500, "Eisboch" wrote:


"Short Wave Sportfishing" wrote in message
.. .

On Sat, 1 Mar 2008 20:25:28 -0500, "Eisboch" wrote:



I don't know about that. There's nothing on the horizon to influence it
that way. I'd like to hear your reasoning.

It's pretty simple - it's a huge commodity bubble. There is absoutely
nothing, and I mean nothing, to support these levels in any sense of
the word. It's too much money chasing too little profit - a sort of
currency inflation if you will. If I'm right, and I'm pretty sure I
am, economic data will provide the catalyst for the crash - sometime
around the middle to the end of July.

Hmmmmm..... It sounds like you are basically in agreement with Doug.
Did hell just freeze over?

Well, obviously - six inches of snow last night and no open water
anywhere. :)

I'd add this - out of control information flow is also a function of
this - anything will move the market. If somebody sneezes in Nigeria,
another $.50 to $1. Fog in the Houston shipping channel - another
$.50 to a $1. And it happens more and more often - issues that
wouldn't have affected the price 10 years ago, now can cause 1-2%
changes in price instantly.

There is also the self-fullfilling prophecy aspect of this - goals are
set by people who have a vested interest making sure it happens and
the market does it's best to meet it.

That is classically a bubble - no other way around it.

And as fast as it went up, it will be faster coming down.

"Short Wave Sportfishing" wrote in message
...
On Sat, 1 Mar 2008 21:48:00 -0500, "Eisboch" wrote:


"Short Wave Sportfishing" wrote in message
. ..

On Sat, 1 Mar 2008 20:25:28 -0500, "Eisboch" wrote:



I don't know about that. There's nothing on the horizon to influence
it
that way. I'd like to hear your reasoning.

It's pretty simple - it's a huge commodity bubble. There is absoutely
nothing, and I mean nothing, to support these levels in any sense of
the word. It's too much money chasing too little profit - a sort of
currency inflation if you will. If I'm right, and I'm pretty sure I
am, economic data will provide the catalyst for the crash - sometime
around the middle to the end of July.

Hmmmmm..... It sounds like you are basically in agreement with Doug.
Did hell just freeze over?

Well, obviously - six inches of snow last night and no open water
anywhere. :)

I'd add this - out of control information flow is also a function of
this - anything will move the market. If somebody sneezes in Nigeria,
another $.50 to $1. Fog in the Houston shipping channel - another
$.50 to a $1. And it happens more and more often - issues that
wouldn't have affected the price 10 years ago, now can cause 1-2%
changes in price instantly.


Bingo. And, it works in the exact same way as when irrelevant financial news
causes nervous old ladies to sell their Toyota stock because Kroger reported
a bad quarter.

"JoeSpareBedroom" wrote in message
...
"Short Wave Sportfishing" wrote in message
...
On Sat, 1 Mar 2008 21:48:00 -0500, "Eisboch" wrote:


"Short Wave Sportfishing" wrote in message
...

On Sat, 1 Mar 2008 20:25:28 -0500, "Eisboch" wrote:



I don't know about that. There's nothing on the horizon to influence
it
that way. I'd like to hear your reasoning.

It's pretty simple - it's a huge commodity bubble. There is absoutely
nothing, and I mean nothing, to support these levels in any sense of
the word. It's too much money chasing too little profit - a sort of
currency inflation if you will. If I'm right, and I'm pretty sure I
am, economic data will provide the catalyst for the crash - sometime
around the middle to the end of July.

Hmmmmm..... It sounds like you are basically in agreement with Doug.
Did hell just freeze over?

Well, obviously - six inches of snow last night and no open water
anywhere. :)

I'd add this - out of control information flow is also a function of
this - anything will move the market. If somebody sneezes in Nigeria,
another $.50 to $1. Fog in the Houston shipping channel - another
$.50 to a $1. And it happens more and more often - issues that
wouldn't have affected the price 10 years ago, now can cause 1-2%
changes in price instantly.


Bingo. And, it works in the exact same way as when irrelevant financial
news causes nervous old ladies to sell their Toyota stock because Kroger
reported a bad quarter.

And we can blame the whole mess on some tulip lovers.