"Juan Valdez" wrote in message
...
Doug,

Oil futures are based upon the best guess of it's future worth. They do
not
determine what someone will actually pay for the oil in the future. If
oil
futures are bid up to $120 a barrel, that does not mean that will be the
market price when the future is due. It is normally that the price of
commodity will not be the same price as that on a futures contract. The
difference is the profit or lose realized by the person holding the
futures
contract.

While it is easy to hold stock certificates in a bank, when it comes time
to
pay off on your futures contract, most people have to sell the oil, they
do
not have empty tankers sitting around to hold the oil waiting for a better
price. They will have to sell the oil at the market price, which is
determined by supply and demand. Trust me, if the US reduced it
consumption
by 25% and China reduced it's consumption by 25% we would see one hell of
a
drop in oil prices.


Claiming that futures markets were the same as the stock market bubble is
just pure ignorance.

Futures markets are basically legalized gambling.






"Doug Kanter" wrote in message
...
True, but this does not address the current issue: The price of oil, as
it
stands today, is not related to supply or demand. It is where it is
because the price has been bid up to current levels based purely on
speculation. This is no different than the way tech stocks were inflated
all out of proportion a few years ago.


"Juan Valdez" wrote in message
...
Doug,
As China continues to expand it manufacture capacity and it's citizens
continue to increase their consumption of oil, the price of oil will
continue to increase. I hate this as much as you do, because I too buy
gas and heat my home. The truth is the only way we can change this is
to
find alternative energy and more efficient ways to use oil. If we
nationalize the oil industry, it is not going to change the long term
problem. If we elect a democratic house, senate and president, it
still
is not going to change the long term direction. Al Gore wrote a book
(I
think it was about 10 yrs ago) that forecasted this exact situation we
are faced with today.

It is time to face the facts, oil is a finite resource and we are using
it up very fast.


"Doug Kanter" wrote in message
...
Well....at least we know that the vehicles from the big 3 will be gone
within a few years. As far as the figures for the big trucks, I think
you have to subtract those sold to people who actually MUST have such
vehicles for their work. That would leave us with real numbers for the
yahoos who buy "a hemi" just because they feel like it.

"Juan Valdez" wrote in message
...
Doug,
I know you prefer to talk to the experienced salepeople to determine
buying patterns, but I found it easier to look at sales history.
These gas guzzlers purchased in 2004 will continue to guzzle gas for
the next 15 - 20 yrs.



Best-selling vehicles

Car First-half 2004 sales Base
price
. Ford F-Series 432,969 $19,920
. Chevrolet Silverado 322,907 $19,485
. Dodge Ram pickup 223,609 $20,365
. Toyota Camry 213,625 $19,560
. Honda Accord 192,106 $16,390
. Ford Explorer 168,059 $23,690
. Honda Civic 162,483
$13,500
. Ford Taurus 144,035
$20,320
. Chevrolet Impala 139,460 22,395
. Dodge Caravan 131,367 $18,995



"Doug Kanter" wrote in message
...
Stop into a Toyota or Honda dealer, ask to speak briefly to their
most
experienced salesperson, and ask what's selling. Or, you could just
look
around. I agree that too many gas pigs are sold to people who have
absolutely zero need for a truck of any kind, but that doesn't
negate
the
fact that cars like Corollas and Civics are selling like hotcakes,
and
they're not even in the category of "high efficiency", compared to
vehicles like the Prius (50+ mpg).



"Juan Valdez" wrote in message
...
Doug,
What is silly is your inability to see the obvious. There is one
reason
for the increase of gas prices. There is an increase in demand,
without
any increase in supply. Consumers will not pay for better fuel
efficient
cars until the cost of the gas guzzlers make it worth their while.
The
fact that a few people buy fuel efficient cars, does not negate the
fact
that too many people are buying gas guzzling SUV and Trucks, while
keeping their home thermostat set at 78 degrees.

Heck even Al Gore who was dumb as dirt, knew you had to raise the
cost of
gas to make it economically viable to find alternative energy
sources.
Al's idea was to tax gas $3/gal and use the tax to find alternative
energy.


"Doug Kanter" wrote in message
...
"Juan Valdez" wrote in message
...
Most of the people in rec.boats who complain about the price of
gas,
are driving trucks with low mpg and boats that burn tons of gas.
If
they really were concerned about the price of gas, they would buy
a
hybrid car and a either a trawler or sailboat.

They refuse to see the obvious. Consumers will not buy a fuel
efficient car or boat, or pay for alternative energy sources
until
the
cost of petrol fuels make it worth while to do so.

That's silly. There are plenty of fuel efficient cars being sold.
It's
been that way for years. Even a basic Corolla gets over 30 mpg.
Same
with models from Honda. Dealers don't need to whore these out with
stupid "employee discount" offers, as do the big 3.

"Doug Kanter" wrote in message
...
The confusion began here when you said consumers would not buy fuel
efficient vehicles until this that or the other thing happened. I pointed
out that these vehicles exist and are selling nicely already. This is not
an absolute statement, since it should be obvious that MORE of these
vehicles will be sold as fuel prices increase, and as the current crop of
still-useful vehicles ages and needs replacement.

It did NOT disagree with anything you said in your last paragraph
beginning with "I can't figure out...". One exception, though: Oil prices
are largely disconnected from supply and demand. If you believe otherwise,
you are not familiar with how daily prices are REALLY pegged by
speculators. The price increases of the past 12 months are wildly out of
proportion to changes in supply & demand.

If you take into accounts futures markets, they are not disconnected at that
point... they are relative

Jim Carter wrote:
wrote in message
oups.com...


"We understand that Venezuela has underground storage facilities with
billions of gallons of toxic, combustible materials and a well
developed plan to make this material available to incendiary factions
within the borders of the US homeland"

That ought to about do it. :-)




I am still laughing at that one!!!!! You come up with the greatest lines I
have ever read!!!

Jim


Don't laugh too hard Jim.
With the crew running the US gov't...we could see that line used against
Canada.

"Don White" wrote in message
...
Jim Carter wrote:
wrote in message
oups.com...


"We understand that Venezuela has underground storage facilities with
billions of gallons of toxic, combustible materials and a well
developed plan to make this material available to incendiary factions
within the borders of the US homeland"

That ought to about do it. :-)




I am still laughing at that one!!!!! You come up with the greatest
lines I
have ever read!!!

Jim


Don't laugh too hard Jim.
With the crew running the US gov't...we could see that line used against
Canada.

Or......Louisiana or New Jersey.

"Doug Kanter" wrote in message
...
Well....at least we know that the vehicles from the big 3 will be gone
within a few years. As far as the figures for the big trucks, I think you
have to subtract those sold to people who actually MUST have such vehicles
for their work. That would leave us with real numbers for the yahoos who
buy "a hemi" just because they feel like it.

I love the way you cut on the Big 3 - yet their JD powers long term
reliability are similar compared to Toyota and Honda... I own Toyotas, but
it doesnt mean I wouldn't buy again from the Big 3...

saying that they will be gone is silly.... someone might trade them in, but
i can guarantee you that unless they are in some major accident, they will
not be junked in 3 years...

"Dan J.S." wrote in message
...

"Doug Kanter" wrote in message
...
The confusion began here when you said consumers would not buy fuel
efficient vehicles until this that or the other thing happened. I pointed
out that these vehicles exist and are selling nicely already. This is not
an absolute statement, since it should be obvious that MORE of these
vehicles will be sold as fuel prices increase, and as the current crop of
still-useful vehicles ages and needs replacement.

It did NOT disagree with anything you said in your last paragraph
beginning with "I can't figure out...". One exception, though: Oil prices
are largely disconnected from supply and demand. If you believe
otherwise, you are not familiar with how daily prices are REALLY pegged
by speculators. The price increases of the past 12 months are wildly out
of proportion to changes in supply & demand.

If you take into accounts futures markets, they are not disconnected at
that point... they are relative


Fine, but that's like saying the more chicken YOU eat, the more often I will
mow my lawn. I can choose to mow in such a way that the frequency is
absolutely correlated to your chicken consumption, but the two are NOT
related in the real world.

It does seem too simple for some.


"P. Fritz" wrote in message
...

"Juan Valdez" wrote in message
...
Doug,
As China continues to expand it manufacture capacity and it's citizens
continue to increase their consumption of oil, the price of oil will
continue to increase. I hate this as much as you do, because I too buy
gas
and heat my home. The truth is the only way we can change this is to
find
alternative energy and more efficient ways to use oil. If we
nationalize
the oil industry, it is not going to change the long term problem. If we
elect a democratic house, senate and president, it still is not going to
change the long term direction. Al Gore wrote a book (I think it was
about
10 yrs ago) that forecasted this exact situation we are faced with today.

It is time to face the facts, oil is a finite resource and we are using
it
up very fast.

With the increase in the cost of oil, alternative energy sources become
more economically viable. When they become more economically viable,
more
will be produced.....funny how capitalism can solve the problem :-)



"Doug Kanter" wrote in message
...
Well....at least we know that the vehicles from the big 3 will be gone
within a few years. As far as the figures for the big trucks, I think
you
have to subtract those sold to people who actually MUST have such
vehicles
for their work. That would leave us with real numbers for the yahoos
who
buy "a hemi" just because they feel like it.

"Juan Valdez" wrote in message
...
Doug,
I know you prefer to talk to the experienced salepeople to determine
buying patterns, but I found it easier to look at sales history.
These gas guzzlers purchased in 2004 will continue to guzzle gas for
the
next 15 - 20 yrs.



Best-selling vehicles

Car First-half 2004 sales Base
price
. Ford F-Series 432,969 $19,920
. Chevrolet Silverado 322,907 $19,485
. Dodge Ram pickup 223,609 $20,365
. Toyota Camry 213,625 $19,560
. Honda Accord 192,106 $16,390
. Ford Explorer 168,059 $23,690
. Honda Civic 162,483 $13,500
. Ford Taurus 144,035 $20,320
. Chevrolet Impala 139,460 22,395
. Dodge Caravan 131,367 $18,995



"Doug Kanter" wrote in message
...
Stop into a Toyota or Honda dealer, ask to speak briefly to their
most
experienced salesperson, and ask what's selling. Or, you could just
look
around. I agree that too many gas pigs are sold to people who have
absolutely zero need for a truck of any kind, but that doesn't negate
the
fact that cars like Corollas and Civics are selling like hotcakes,
and
they're not even in the category of "high efficiency", compared to
vehicles like the Prius (50+ mpg).



"Juan Valdez" wrote in message
...
Doug,
What is silly is your inability to see the obvious. There is one
reason
for the increase of gas prices. There is an increase in demand,
without
any increase in supply. Consumers will not pay for better fuel
efficient
cars until the cost of the gas guzzlers make it worth their while.
The
fact that a few people buy fuel efficient cars, does not negate the
fact
that too many people are buying gas guzzling SUV and Trucks, while
keeping their home thermostat set at 78 degrees.

Heck even Al Gore who was dumb as dirt, knew you had to raise the
cost
of
gas to make it economically viable to find alternative energy
sources.
Al's idea was to tax gas $3/gal and use the tax to find alternative
energy.


"Doug Kanter" wrote in message
...
"Juan Valdez" wrote in message
...
Most of the people in rec.boats who complain about the price of
gas,
are driving trucks with low mpg and boats that burn tons of gas.
If
they really were concerned about the price of gas, they would buy
a
hybrid car and a either a trawler or sailboat.

They refuse to see the obvious. Consumers will not buy a fuel
efficient car or boat, or pay for alternative energy sources until
the
cost of petrol fuels make it worth while to do so.

That's silly. There are plenty of fuel efficient cars being sold.
It's
been that way for years. Even a basic Corolla gets over 30 mpg.
Same
with models from Honda. Dealers don't need to whore these out with
stupid "employee discount" offers, as do the big 3.

"P. Fritz" wrote in message
...


Claiming that futures markets were the same as the stock market bubble is
just pure ignorance.

Futures markets are basically legalized gambling.

Really? Perhaps you can explain how a stock can trade at a P/E ratio of,
say, 500, with little or no cash on hand and no profits in sight for at
least a few years, and how that's not gambling.

"Dan J.S." wrote in message
...

"Doug Kanter" wrote in message
...
Well....at least we know that the vehicles from the big 3 will be gone
within a few years. As far as the figures for the big trucks, I think you
have to subtract those sold to people who actually MUST have such
vehicles for their work. That would leave us with real numbers for the
yahoos who buy "a hemi" just because they feel like it.

I love the way you cut on the Big 3 - yet their JD powers long term
reliability are similar compared to Toyota and Honda... I own Toyotas, but
it doesnt mean I wouldn't buy again from the Big 3...

saying that they will be gone is silly.... someone might trade them in,
but i can guarantee you that unless they are in some major accident, they
will not be junked in 3 years...




OK, then.

Doug,
I hate it, but I know if the govt. got involved in the oil industry it would
be more inefficient than today, and in the long run we all would be screwed.

I can remember when Jimmy Carter was in office and credit card companies
were charging 21-25% interest on their cards. Everyone was screaming, the
govt. needs to step in and correct this problem. Well, very soon after the
boost in interest competition corrected the problem. Competition will
correct the problem much quicker and more efficiently than a governmental
bureaucracy.


"Doug Kanter" wrote in message
...
Your explanation of futures is largely accurate, except that each time
they're bid up, the price at the pumps rises. This should infuriate you.


"Juan Valdez" wrote in message
...
Doug,

Oil futures are based upon the best guess of it's future worth. They do
not determine what someone will actually pay for the oil in the future.
If oil futures are bid up to $120 a barrel, that does not mean that will
be the market price when the future is due. It is normally that the
price of commodity will not be the same price as that on a futures
contract. The difference is the profit or lose realized by the person
holding the futures contract.

While it is easy to hold stock certificates in a bank, when it comes time
to pay off on your futures contract, most people have to sell the oil,
they do not have empty tankers sitting around to hold the oil waiting for
a better price. They will have to sell the oil at the market price,
which is determined by supply and demand. Trust me, if the US reduced it
consumption by 25% and China reduced it's consumption by 25% we would see
one hell of a drop in oil prices.






"Doug Kanter" wrote in message
...
True, but this does not address the current issue: The price of oil, as
it stands today, is not related to supply or demand. It is where it is
because the price has been bid up to current levels based purely on
speculation. This is no different than the way tech stocks were inflated
all out of proportion a few years ago.


"Juan Valdez" wrote in message
...
Doug,
As China continues to expand it manufacture capacity and it's citizens
continue to increase their consumption of oil, the price of oil will
continue to increase. I hate this as much as you do, because I too buy
gas and heat my home. The truth is the only way we can change this is
to find alternative energy and more efficient ways to use oil. If we
nationalize the oil industry, it is not going to change the long term
problem. If we elect a democratic house, senate and president, it
still is not going to change the long term direction. Al Gore wrote a
book (I think it was about 10 yrs ago) that forecasted this exact
situation we are faced with today.

It is time to face the facts, oil is a finite resource and we are using
it up very fast.


"Doug Kanter" wrote in message
...
Well....at least we know that the vehicles from the big 3 will be gone
within a few years. As far as the figures for the big trucks, I think
you have to subtract those sold to people who actually MUST have such
vehicles for their work. That would leave us with real numbers for the
yahoos who buy "a hemi" just because they feel like it.

"Juan Valdez" wrote in message
...
Doug,
I know you prefer to talk to the experienced salepeople to determine
buying patterns, but I found it easier to look at sales history.
These gas guzzlers purchased in 2004 will continue to guzzle gas for
the next 15 - 20 yrs.



Best-selling vehicles

Car First-half 2004 sales Base
price
. Ford F-Series 432,969 $19,920
. Chevrolet Silverado 322,907 $19,485
. Dodge Ram pickup 223,609 $20,365
. Toyota Camry 213,625 $19,560
. Honda Accord 192,106 $16,390
. Ford Explorer 168,059 $23,690
. Honda Civic 162,483
$13,500
. Ford Taurus 144,035
$20,320
. Chevrolet Impala 139,460 22,395
. Dodge Caravan 131,367 $18,995



"Doug Kanter" wrote in message
...
Stop into a Toyota or Honda dealer, ask to speak briefly to their
most
experienced salesperson, and ask what's selling. Or, you could just
look
around. I agree that too many gas pigs are sold to people who have
absolutely zero need for a truck of any kind, but that doesn't
negate the
fact that cars like Corollas and Civics are selling like hotcakes,
and
they're not even in the category of "high efficiency", compared to
vehicles like the Prius (50+ mpg).



"Juan Valdez" wrote in message
...
Doug,
What is silly is your inability to see the obvious. There is one
reason
for the increase of gas prices. There is an increase in demand,
without
any increase in supply. Consumers will not pay for better fuel
efficient
cars until the cost of the gas guzzlers make it worth their while.
The
fact that a few people buy fuel efficient cars, does not negate the
fact
that too many people are buying gas guzzling SUV and Trucks, while
keeping their home thermostat set at 78 degrees.

Heck even Al Gore who was dumb as dirt, knew you had to raise the
cost of
gas to make it economically viable to find alternative energy
sources.
Al's idea was to tax gas $3/gal and use the tax to find alternative
energy.


"Doug Kanter" wrote in message
...
"Juan Valdez" wrote in message
...
Most of the people in rec.boats who complain about the price of
gas,
are driving trucks with low mpg and boats that burn tons of gas.
If
they really were concerned about the price of gas, they would buy
a
hybrid car and a either a trawler or sailboat.

They refuse to see the obvious. Consumers will not buy a fuel
efficient car or boat, or pay for alternative energy sources
until the
cost of petrol fuels make it worth while to do so.

That's silly. There are plenty of fuel efficient cars being sold.
It's
been that way for years. Even a basic Corolla gets over 30 mpg.
Same
with models from Honda. Dealers don't need to whore these out with
stupid "employee discount" offers, as do the big 3.