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#11
posted to rec.boats
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sobering study
On 3/22/2020 11:07 AM, Keyser Soze wrote:
On 3/22/20 10:47 AM, Mr. Luddite wrote: On 3/22/2020 10:37 AM, Adorable Deplorable wrote: On Sun, 22 Mar 2020 10:05:43 -0400, "Mr. Luddite" wrote: On 3/22/2020 10:00 AM, Adorable Deplorable wrote: On Sun, 22 Mar 2020 09:01:50 -0400, "Mr. Luddite" wrote: This morning I was reading some of the results from a study done by Columbia University on the corvid-19 infection rates. Highlights include: 1. The study concludes that there is actually 11 times the number **** of people currently known to be carrying the virus.* Based on **** current known cases, that would indicate almost 300,000 people **** in the USA, most who are carrying the virus but don't know it. 2. Based on the level of controls by fed and state governments **** and the cooperation of the population to adhere to their **** controls and recommendations, the study evaluated the **** results and generated graphs of "no controls", "some controls" **** and "severe controls".* "Severe controls" becomes obvious as **** the only means of beating this thing. 3. In any event, it has not peaked yet and won't until May or June **** in the best case and mid summer in a more realistic case. Not a particularly encouraging study.* It also suggests that if not brought under control medical facilities, especially in the hardest hit areas of the country, may find themselves in the position of choosing who gets treated and who dies. Annoying to me is my awareness of some people, young and old, who seem to have determined that the controls and recommendations don't apply to them, thus putting themselves and people they come in contact with at risk. Given the rate of climb in the past few days, I've redone my curve. It now results in about 283,000 confirmed US cases by around 22 April, unless something really drastic happens. Yes, it's getting scary quickly! -- Freedom Isn't Free! Run your curve again adding the estimated 300,000 people the Columbia University study believes exists *right now*. That's very scary. Mycurve is based on a start of 26663 confirmed cases. Adding 300,000 to that would give* an estimate of around 1,758,000 by 22 April. Let's hope Columbia U is wrong. On the other hand, if there are an additional 300K cases out there, that would indicate the symptoms aren't bad enough for the folks to get 'confirmed'. I'm tempted to test fate and get out there and catch it. I think catching it now, before the hospitals are totally inundated, would be a good idea. -- Freedom Isn't Free! Could you add me to your will first?** :-) What a great idea...Herring the Racist catching the virus for us and reporting back. How do we encourage that? Are you sure some virus or bug hasn't been in your skull for the past few months, devouring whatever brain cells you have left? -- This email has been checked for viruses by AVG. https://www.avg.com |
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#12
posted to rec.boats
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sobering study
On 3/22/20 11:13 AM, Mr. Luddite wrote:
On 3/22/2020 11:07 AM, Keyser Soze wrote: On 3/22/20 10:47 AM, Mr. Luddite wrote: On 3/22/2020 10:37 AM, Adorable Deplorable wrote: On Sun, 22 Mar 2020 10:05:43 -0400, "Mr. Luddite" wrote: On 3/22/2020 10:00 AM, Adorable Deplorable wrote: On Sun, 22 Mar 2020 09:01:50 -0400, "Mr. Luddite" wrote: This morning I was reading some of the results from a study done by Columbia University on the corvid-19 infection rates. Highlights include: 1. The study concludes that there is actually 11 times the number **** of people currently known to be carrying the virus.* Based on **** current known cases, that would indicate almost 300,000 people **** in the USA, most who are carrying the virus but don't know it. 2. Based on the level of controls by fed and state governments **** and the cooperation of the population to adhere to their **** controls and recommendations, the study evaluated the **** results and generated graphs of "no controls", "some controls" **** and "severe controls".* "Severe controls" becomes obvious as **** the only means of beating this thing. 3. In any event, it has not peaked yet and won't until May or June **** in the best case and mid summer in a more realistic case. Not a particularly encouraging study.* It also suggests that if not brought under control medical facilities, especially in the hardest hit areas of the country, may find themselves in the position of choosing who gets treated and who dies. Annoying to me is my awareness of some people, young and old, who seem to have determined that the controls and recommendations don't apply to them, thus putting themselves and people they come in contact with at risk. Given the rate of climb in the past few days, I've redone my curve. It now results in about 283,000 confirmed US cases by around 22 April, unless something really drastic happens. Yes, it's getting scary quickly! -- Freedom Isn't Free! Run your curve again adding the estimated 300,000 people the Columbia University study believes exists *right now*. That's very scary. Mycurve is based on a start of 26663 confirmed cases. Adding 300,000 to that would give* an estimate of around 1,758,000 by 22 April. Let's hope Columbia U is wrong. On the other hand, if there are an additional 300K cases out there, that would indicate the symptoms aren't bad enough for the folks to get 'confirmed'. I'm tempted to test fate and get out there and catch it. I think catching it now, before the hospitals are totally inundated, would be a good idea. -- Freedom Isn't Free! Could you add me to your will first?** :-) What a great idea...Herring the Racist catching the virus for us and reporting back. How do we encourage that? Are you sure some virus or bug hasn't been in your skull for the past few months, devouring whatever brain cells you have left? Perhaps, but I've still got enough smarts left to think I should "...test fate and get out there and catch it..." is a really bad idea. And, again, how do we encourage Herring? |
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#14
posted to rec.boats
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sobering study
On Sunday, March 22, 2020 at 11:15:13 AM UTC-4, Keyser Soze wrote:
On 3/22/20 11:13 AM, Mr. Luddite wrote: On 3/22/2020 11:07 AM, Keyser Soze wrote: On 3/22/20 10:47 AM, Mr. Luddite wrote: On 3/22/2020 10:37 AM, Adorable Deplorable wrote: On Sun, 22 Mar 2020 10:05:43 -0400, "Mr. Luddite" wrote: On 3/22/2020 10:00 AM, Adorable Deplorable wrote: On Sun, 22 Mar 2020 09:01:50 -0400, "Mr. Luddite" wrote: This morning I was reading some of the results from a study done by Columbia University on the corvid-19 infection rates. Highlights include: 1. The study concludes that there is actually 11 times the number **** of people currently known to be carrying the virus.* Based on **** current known cases, that would indicate almost 300,000 people **** in the USA, most who are carrying the virus but don't know it. 2. Based on the level of controls by fed and state governments **** and the cooperation of the population to adhere to their **** controls and recommendations, the study evaluated the **** results and generated graphs of "no controls", "some controls" **** and "severe controls".* "Severe controls" becomes obvious as **** the only means of beating this thing. 3. In any event, it has not peaked yet and won't until May or June **** in the best case and mid summer in a more realistic case. Not a particularly encouraging study.* It also suggests that if not brought under control medical facilities, especially in the hardest hit areas of the country, may find themselves in the position of choosing who gets treated and who dies. Annoying to me is my awareness of some people, young and old, who seem to have determined that the controls and recommendations don't apply to them, thus putting themselves and people they come in contact with at risk. Given the rate of climb in the past few days, I've redone my curve. It now results in about 283,000 confirmed US cases by around 22 April, unless something really drastic happens. Yes, it's getting scary quickly! -- Freedom Isn't Free! Run your curve again adding the estimated 300,000 people the Columbia University study believes exists *right now*. That's very scary. Mycurve is based on a start of 26663 confirmed cases. Adding 300,000 to that would give* an estimate of around 1,758,000 by 22 April. Let's hope Columbia U is wrong. On the other hand, if there are an additional 300K cases out there, that would indicate the symptoms aren't bad enough for the folks to get 'confirmed'. I'm tempted to test fate and get out there and catch it. I think catching it now, before the hospitals are totally inundated, would be a good idea. -- Freedom Isn't Free! Could you add me to your will first?** :-) What a great idea...Herring the Racist catching the virus for us and reporting back. How do we encourage that? Are you sure some virus or bug hasn't been in your skull for the past few months, devouring whatever brain cells you have left? Perhaps, but I've still got enough smarts left to think I should "...test fate and get out there and catch it..." is a really bad idea. You left off "before the hospitals are totally inundated". You say you're the paragon of health. If you catch it when the hospitals are full, you'll have no problems beating it, right? You'll just hop on the bus, ride it into DC, and check into that special hospital room they've reserved just for you, eh?  |
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#15
posted to rec.boats
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sobering study
On 3/22/20 11:21 AM, Mr. Luddite wrote:
On 3/22/2020 11:11 AM, Keyser Soze wrote: On 3/22/20 11:06 AM, Mr. Luddite wrote: On 3/22/2020 10:17 AM, wrote: On Sun, 22 Mar 2020 10:05:43 -0400, "Mr. Luddite" wrote: On 3/22/2020 10:00 AM, Adorable Deplorable wrote: On Sun, 22 Mar 2020 09:01:50 -0400, "Mr. Luddite" wrote: This morning I was reading some of the results from a study done by Columbia University on the corvid-19 infection rates. Highlights include: 1. The study concludes that there is actually 11 times the number **** of people currently known to be carrying the virus.* Based on **** current known cases, that would indicate almost 300,000 people **** in the USA, most who are carrying the virus but don't know it. 2. Based on the level of controls by fed and state governments **** and the cooperation of the population to adhere to their **** controls and recommendations, the study evaluated the **** results and generated graphs of "no controls", "some controls" **** and "severe controls".* "Severe controls" becomes obvious as **** the only means of beating this thing. 3. In any event, it has not peaked yet and won't until May or June **** in the best case and mid summer in a more realistic case. Not a particularly encouraging study.* It also suggests that if not brought under control medical facilities, especially in the hardest hit areas of the country, may find themselves in the position of choosing who gets treated and who dies. Annoying to me is my awareness of some people, young and old, who seem to have determined that the controls and recommendations don't apply to them, thus putting themselves and people they come in contact with at risk. Given the rate of climb in the past few days, I've redone my curve. It now results in about 283,000 confirmed US cases by around 22 April, unless something really drastic happens. Yes, it's getting scary quickly! -- Freedom Isn't Free! Run your curve again adding the estimated 300,000 people the Columbia University study believes exists *right now*. === What was their methodology for estimating the number of unreported cases? Wayne, the study was reported in the New York Times today.* You can read more about it, the methodology, etc, at the link below. One thing I missed ... and this is even more scary ...* the study suggests: "Even if the country cut its rate of transmission in half — a tall order — some 650,000 people might become infected in the next two months." Link: https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/03/20/us/coronavirus-model-us-outbreak.html?&te=1&nl=morning-briefing&emc=edit_nn_20200322&campaign_id=9&instan ce_id=16976&segment_id=22540&user_id=dd7f8c99a5f94 a70971937d998bca33d®i_id=116446437_nn_20200322 or: https://tinyurl.com/wdvsqhb Not to worry...your Trump said the warmer weather will take care of Covoid-19. Right? No.* He didn't. From Marke****ch: Trump told supporters at a rally in New Hampshire in early March that the virus will be gone by April, claiming that when temperatures rise, “the virus” will “miraculously” go away. Chinese President Xi Jinping has said the same, Trump said. The latest deadly coronavirus, eventually referenced as COVID-19, first emerged in China at the end of last year. “The virus that we’re talking about having to do, a lot of people think that goes away in April, with the heat, as the heat comes in, typically that will go away in April,” Trump repeated later to a group of governors. |
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#16
posted to rec.boats
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sobering study
On Sun, 22 Mar 2020 11:06:56 -0400, "Mr. Luddite"
wrote: On 3/22/2020 10:17 AM, wrote: On Sun, 22 Mar 2020 10:05:43 -0400, "Mr. Luddite" wrote: On 3/22/2020 10:00 AM, Adorable Deplorable wrote: On Sun, 22 Mar 2020 09:01:50 -0400, "Mr. Luddite" wrote: This morning I was reading some of the results from a study done by Columbia University on the corvid-19 infection rates. Highlights include: 1. The study concludes that there is actually 11 times the number of people currently known to be carrying the virus. Based on current known cases, that would indicate almost 300,000 people in the USA, most who are carrying the virus but don't know it. 2. Based on the level of controls by fed and state governments and the cooperation of the population to adhere to their controls and recommendations, the study evaluated the results and generated graphs of "no controls", "some controls" and "severe controls". "Severe controls" becomes obvious as the only means of beating this thing. 3. In any event, it has not peaked yet and won't until May or June in the best case and mid summer in a more realistic case. Not a particularly encouraging study. It also suggests that if not brought under control medical facilities, especially in the hardest hit areas of the country, may find themselves in the position of choosing who gets treated and who dies. Annoying to me is my awareness of some people, young and old, who seem to have determined that the controls and recommendations don't apply to them, thus putting themselves and people they come in contact with at risk. Given the rate of climb in the past few days, I've redone my curve. It now results in about 283,000 confirmed US cases by around 22 April, unless something really drastic happens. Yes, it's getting scary quickly! -- Freedom Isn't Free! Run your curve again adding the estimated 300,000 people the Columbia University study believes exists *right now*. === What was their methodology for estimating the number of unreported cases? Wayne, the study was reported in the New York Times today. You can read more about it, the methodology, etc, at the link below. One thing I missed ... and this is even more scary ... the study suggests: "Even if the country cut its rate of transmission in half a tall order some 650,000 people might become infected in the next two months." Link: https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/03/20/us/coronavirus-model-us-outbreak.html?&te=1&nl=morning-briefing&emc=edit_nn_20200322&campaign_id=9&instan ce_id=16976&segment_id=22540&user_id=dd7f8c99a5f94 a70971937d998bca33d®i_id=116446437_nn_20200322 or: https://tinyurl.com/wdvsqhb === Thanks. As best I can tell they inferred the number of unreported infections based on the rate of new infections spreading. Apparently they validated their assumptions with statistical methods and peer review. That's probably as good as it gets in the absence of wide spread testing. -- This email has been checked for viruses by AVG. https://www.avg.com |
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#17
posted to rec.boats
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sobering study
On Sun, 22 Mar 2020 10:47:20 -0400, "Mr. Luddite" wrote:
On 3/22/2020 10:37 AM, Adorable Deplorable wrote: On Sun, 22 Mar 2020 10:05:43 -0400, "Mr. Luddite" wrote: On 3/22/2020 10:00 AM, Adorable Deplorable wrote: On Sun, 22 Mar 2020 09:01:50 -0400, "Mr. Luddite" wrote: This morning I was reading some of the results from a study done by Columbia University on the corvid-19 infection rates. Highlights include: 1. The study concludes that there is actually 11 times the number of people currently known to be carrying the virus. Based on current known cases, that would indicate almost 300,000 people in the USA, most who are carrying the virus but don't know it. 2. Based on the level of controls by fed and state governments and the cooperation of the population to adhere to their controls and recommendations, the study evaluated the results and generated graphs of "no controls", "some controls" and "severe controls". "Severe controls" becomes obvious as the only means of beating this thing. 3. In any event, it has not peaked yet and won't until May or June in the best case and mid summer in a more realistic case. Not a particularly encouraging study. It also suggests that if not brought under control medical facilities, especially in the hardest hit areas of the country, may find themselves in the position of choosing who gets treated and who dies. Annoying to me is my awareness of some people, young and old, who seem to have determined that the controls and recommendations don't apply to them, thus putting themselves and people they come in contact with at risk. Given the rate of climb in the past few days, I've redone my curve. It now results in about 283,000 confirmed US cases by around 22 April, unless something really drastic happens. Yes, it's getting scary quickly! -- Freedom Isn't Free! Run your curve again adding the estimated 300,000 people the Columbia University study believes exists *right now*. That's very scary. Mycurve is based on a start of 26663 confirmed cases. Adding 300,000 to that would give an estimate of around 1,758,000 by 22 April. Let's hope Columbia U is wrong. On the other hand, if there are an additional 300K cases out there, that would indicate the symptoms aren't bad enough for the folks to get 'confirmed'. I'm tempted to test fate and get out there and catch it. I think catching it now, before the hospitals are totally inundated, would be a good idea. -- Freedom Isn't Free! Could you add me to your will first? :-) Do you think my chances will be better in six months? -- Freedom Isn't Free! |
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#18
posted to rec.boats
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sobering study
On Sun, 22 Mar 2020 11:11:00 -0400, Keyser Soze
wrote: "Even if the country cut its rate of transmission in half a tall order some 650,000 people might become infected in the next two months." Link: https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/03/20/us/coronavirus-model-us-outbreak.html?&te=1&nl=morning-briefing&emc=edit_nn_20200322&campaign_id=9&instan ce_id=16976&segment_id=22540&user_id=dd7f8c99a5f94 a70971937d998bca33d®i_id=116446437_nn_20200322 or: https://tinyurl.com/wdvsqhb Not to worry...your Trump said the warmer weather will take care of Covoid-19. Right? === It's good to know that your inner arse'l is still functioning normally. We'd start to worry if you suddenly went normal on us. -- This email has been checked for viruses by AVG. https://www.avg.com |
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#19
posted to rec.boats
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sobering study
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#20
posted to rec.boats
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sobering study
On Sun, 22 Mar 2020 11:27:22 -0400, Keyser Soze wrote:
On 3/22/20 11:21 AM, Mr. Luddite wrote: On 3/22/2020 11:11 AM, Keyser Soze wrote: On 3/22/20 11:06 AM, Mr. Luddite wrote: On 3/22/2020 10:17 AM, wrote: On Sun, 22 Mar 2020 10:05:43 -0400, "Mr. Luddite" wrote: On 3/22/2020 10:00 AM, Adorable Deplorable wrote: On Sun, 22 Mar 2020 09:01:50 -0400, "Mr. Luddite" wrote: This morning I was reading some of the results from a study done by Columbia University on the corvid-19 infection rates. Highlights include: 1. The study concludes that there is actually 11 times the number **** of people currently known to be carrying the virus.* Based on **** current known cases, that would indicate almost 300,000 people **** in the USA, most who are carrying the virus but don't know it. 2. Based on the level of controls by fed and state governments **** and the cooperation of the population to adhere to their **** controls and recommendations, the study evaluated the **** results and generated graphs of "no controls", "some controls" **** and "severe controls".* "Severe controls" becomes obvious as **** the only means of beating this thing. 3. In any event, it has not peaked yet and won't until May or June **** in the best case and mid summer in a more realistic case. Not a particularly encouraging study.* It also suggests that if not brought under control medical facilities, especially in the hardest hit areas of the country, may find themselves in the position of choosing who gets treated and who dies. Annoying to me is my awareness of some people, young and old, who seem to have determined that the controls and recommendations don't apply to them, thus putting themselves and people they come in contact with at risk. Given the rate of climb in the past few days, I've redone my curve. It now results in about 283,000 confirmed US cases by around 22 April, unless something really drastic happens. Yes, it's getting scary quickly! -- Freedom Isn't Free! Run your curve again adding the estimated 300,000 people the Columbia University study believes exists *right now*. === What was their methodology for estimating the number of unreported cases? Wayne, the study was reported in the New York Times today.* You can read more about it, the methodology, etc, at the link below. One thing I missed ... and this is even more scary ...* the study suggests: "Even if the country cut its rate of transmission in half a tall order some 650,000 people might become infected in the next two months." Link: https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/03/20/us/coronavirus-model-us-outbreak.html?&te=1&nl=morning-briefing&emc=edit_nn_20200322&campaign_id=9&instan ce_id=16976&segment_id=22540&user_id=dd7f8c99a5f94 a70971937d998bca33d®i_id=116446437_nn_20200322 or: https://tinyurl.com/wdvsqhb Not to worry...your Trump said the warmer weather will take care of Covoid-19. Right? No.* He didn't. From Marke****ch: Trump told supporters at a rally in New Hampshire in early March that the virus will be gone by April, claiming that when temperatures rise, the virus will miraculously go away. Chinese President Xi Jinping has said the same, Trump said. The latest deadly coronavirus, eventually referenced as COVID-19, first emerged in China at the end of last year. The virus that were talking about having to do, a lot of people think that goes away in April, with the heat, as the heat comes in, typically that will go away in April, Trump repeated later to a group of governors. Cite? Liar. -- Freedom Isn't Free! |
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