sobering study
 

This morning I was reading some of the results from a study
done by Columbia University on the corvid-19 infection rates.

Highlights include:

1. The study concludes that there is actually 11 times the number
of people currently known to be carrying the virus. Based on
current known cases, that would indicate almost 300,000 people
in the USA, most who are carrying the virus but don't know it.

2. Based on the level of controls by fed and state governments
and the cooperation of the population to adhere to their
controls and recommendations, the study evaluated the
results and generated graphs of "no controls", "some controls"
and "severe controls". "Severe controls" becomes obvious as
the only means of beating this thing.

3. In any event, it has not peaked yet and won't until May or June
in the best case and mid summer in a more realistic case.

Not a particularly encouraging study. It also suggests that
if not brought under control medical facilities, especially
in the hardest hit areas of the country, may find themselves
in the position of choosing who gets treated and who dies.

Annoying to me is my awareness of some people, young and old,
who seem to have determined that the controls and recommendations
don't apply to them, thus putting themselves and people they
come in contact with at risk.


--
This email has been checked for viruses by AVG.
https://www.avg.com

sobering study
 

On Sun, 22 Mar 2020 09:01:50 -0400, "Mr. Luddite" wrote:

This morning I was reading some of the results from a study
done by Columbia University on the corvid-19 infection rates.

Highlights include:

1. The study concludes that there is actually 11 times the number
of people currently known to be carrying the virus. Based on
current known cases, that would indicate almost 300,000 people
in the USA, most who are carrying the virus but don't know it.

2. Based on the level of controls by fed and state governments
and the cooperation of the population to adhere to their
controls and recommendations, the study evaluated the
results and generated graphs of "no controls", "some controls"
and "severe controls". "Severe controls" becomes obvious as
the only means of beating this thing.

3. In any event, it has not peaked yet and won't until May or June
in the best case and mid summer in a more realistic case.

Not a particularly encouraging study. It also suggests that
if not brought under control medical facilities, especially
in the hardest hit areas of the country, may find themselves
in the position of choosing who gets treated and who dies.

Annoying to me is my awareness of some people, young and old,
who seem to have determined that the controls and recommendations
don't apply to them, thus putting themselves and people they
come in contact with at risk.

Given the rate of climb in the past few days, I've redone my curve. It now
results in about 283,000 confirmed US cases by around 22 April, unless something
really drastic happens.

Yes, it's getting scary quickly!
--

Freedom Isn't Free!

sobering study
 

On 3/22/2020 10:00 AM, Adorable Deplorable wrote:
On Sun, 22 Mar 2020 09:01:50 -0400, "Mr. Luddite" wrote:

This morning I was reading some of the results from a study
done by Columbia University on the corvid-19 infection rates.

Highlights include:

1. The study concludes that there is actually 11 times the number
of people currently known to be carrying the virus. Based on
current known cases, that would indicate almost 300,000 people
in the USA, most who are carrying the virus but don't know it.

2. Based on the level of controls by fed and state governments
and the cooperation of the population to adhere to their
controls and recommendations, the study evaluated the
results and generated graphs of "no controls", "some controls"
and "severe controls". "Severe controls" becomes obvious as
the only means of beating this thing.

3. In any event, it has not peaked yet and won't until May or June
in the best case and mid summer in a more realistic case.

Not a particularly encouraging study. It also suggests that
if not brought under control medical facilities, especially
in the hardest hit areas of the country, may find themselves
in the position of choosing who gets treated and who dies.

Annoying to me is my awareness of some people, young and old,
who seem to have determined that the controls and recommendations
don't apply to them, thus putting themselves and people they
come in contact with at risk.

Given the rate of climb in the past few days, I've redone my curve. It now
results in about 283,000 confirmed US cases by around 22 April, unless something
really drastic happens.

Yes, it's getting scary quickly!
--

Freedom Isn't Free!



Run your curve again adding the estimated 300,000 people the Columbia
University study believes exists *right now*.



--
This email has been checked for viruses by AVG.
https://www.avg.com

sobering study
 

On Sun, 22 Mar 2020 10:05:43 -0400, "Mr. Luddite"
wrote:

On 3/22/2020 10:00 AM, Adorable Deplorable wrote:
On Sun, 22 Mar 2020 09:01:50 -0400, "Mr. Luddite" wrote:

This morning I was reading some of the results from a study
done by Columbia University on the corvid-19 infection rates.

Highlights include:

1. The study concludes that there is actually 11 times the number
of people currently known to be carrying the virus. Based on
current known cases, that would indicate almost 300,000 people
in the USA, most who are carrying the virus but don't know it.

2. Based on the level of controls by fed and state governments
and the cooperation of the population to adhere to their
controls and recommendations, the study evaluated the
results and generated graphs of "no controls", "some controls"
and "severe controls". "Severe controls" becomes obvious as
the only means of beating this thing.

3. In any event, it has not peaked yet and won't until May or June
in the best case and mid summer in a more realistic case.

Not a particularly encouraging study. It also suggests that
if not brought under control medical facilities, especially
in the hardest hit areas of the country, may find themselves
in the position of choosing who gets treated and who dies.

Annoying to me is my awareness of some people, young and old,
who seem to have determined that the controls and recommendations
don't apply to them, thus putting themselves and people they
come in contact with at risk.

Given the rate of climb in the past few days, I've redone my curve. It now
results in about 283,000 confirmed US cases by around 22 April, unless something
really drastic happens.

Yes, it's getting scary quickly!
--

Freedom Isn't Free!



Run your curve again adding the estimated 300,000 people the Columbia
University study believes exists *right now*.

===

What was their methodology for estimating the number of unreported
cases?

--
This email has been checked for viruses by AVG.
https://www.avg.com

sobering study
 

On 3/22/2020 10:17 AM, wrote:
On Sun, 22 Mar 2020 10:05:43 -0400, "Mr. Luddite"
wrote:

On 3/22/2020 10:00 AM, Adorable Deplorable wrote:
On Sun, 22 Mar 2020 09:01:50 -0400, "Mr. Luddite" wrote:

This morning I was reading some of the results from a study
done by Columbia University on the corvid-19 infection rates.

Highlights include:

1. The study concludes that there is actually 11 times the number
of people currently known to be carrying the virus. Based on
current known cases, that would indicate almost 300,000 people
in the USA, most who are carrying the virus but don't know it.

2. Based on the level of controls by fed and state governments
and the cooperation of the population to adhere to their
controls and recommendations, the study evaluated the
results and generated graphs of "no controls", "some controls"
and "severe controls". "Severe controls" becomes obvious as
the only means of beating this thing.

3. In any event, it has not peaked yet and won't until May or June
in the best case and mid summer in a more realistic case.

Not a particularly encouraging study. It also suggests that
if not brought under control medical facilities, especially
in the hardest hit areas of the country, may find themselves
in the position of choosing who gets treated and who dies.

Annoying to me is my awareness of some people, young and old,
who seem to have determined that the controls and recommendations
don't apply to them, thus putting themselves and people they
come in contact with at risk.

Given the rate of climb in the past few days, I've redone my curve. It now
results in about 283,000 confirmed US cases by around 22 April, unless something
really drastic happens.

Yes, it's getting scary quickly!
--

Freedom Isn't Free!



Run your curve again adding the estimated 300,000 people the Columbia
University study believes exists *right now*.

===



What was their methodology for estimating the number of unreported
cases?



I don't know Wayne. I was just reading their conclusions, as reported.


--
This email has been checked for viruses by AVG.
https://www.avg.com

sobering study
 

On Sun, 22 Mar 2020 10:05:43 -0400, "Mr. Luddite" wrote:

On 3/22/2020 10:00 AM, Adorable Deplorable wrote:
On Sun, 22 Mar 2020 09:01:50 -0400, "Mr. Luddite" wrote:

This morning I was reading some of the results from a study
done by Columbia University on the corvid-19 infection rates.

Highlights include:

1. The study concludes that there is actually 11 times the number
of people currently known to be carrying the virus. Based on
current known cases, that would indicate almost 300,000 people
in the USA, most who are carrying the virus but don't know it.

2. Based on the level of controls by fed and state governments
and the cooperation of the population to adhere to their
controls and recommendations, the study evaluated the
results and generated graphs of "no controls", "some controls"
and "severe controls". "Severe controls" becomes obvious as
the only means of beating this thing.

3. In any event, it has not peaked yet and won't until May or June
in the best case and mid summer in a more realistic case.

Not a particularly encouraging study. It also suggests that
if not brought under control medical facilities, especially
in the hardest hit areas of the country, may find themselves
in the position of choosing who gets treated and who dies.

Annoying to me is my awareness of some people, young and old,
who seem to have determined that the controls and recommendations
don't apply to them, thus putting themselves and people they
come in contact with at risk.

Given the rate of climb in the past few days, I've redone my curve. It now
results in about 283,000 confirmed US cases by around 22 April, unless something
really drastic happens.

Yes, it's getting scary quickly!
--

Freedom Isn't Free!



Run your curve again adding the estimated 300,000 people the Columbia
University study believes exists *right now*.

That's very scary. Mycurve is based on a start of 26663 confirmed cases. Adding
300,000 to that would give an estimate of around 1,758,000 by 22 April. Let's
hope Columbia U is wrong.

On the other hand, if there are an additional 300K cases out there, that would
indicate the symptoms aren't bad enough for the folks to get 'confirmed'.

I'm tempted to test fate and get out there and catch it. I think catching it
now, before the hospitals are totally inundated, would be a good idea.
--

Freedom Isn't Free!

sobering study
 

On 3/22/2020 10:37 AM, Adorable Deplorable wrote:
On Sun, 22 Mar 2020 10:05:43 -0400, "Mr. Luddite" wrote:

On 3/22/2020 10:00 AM, Adorable Deplorable wrote:
On Sun, 22 Mar 2020 09:01:50 -0400, "Mr. Luddite" wrote:

This morning I was reading some of the results from a study
done by Columbia University on the corvid-19 infection rates.

Highlights include:

1. The study concludes that there is actually 11 times the number
of people currently known to be carrying the virus. Based on
current known cases, that would indicate almost 300,000 people
in the USA, most who are carrying the virus but don't know it.

2. Based on the level of controls by fed and state governments
and the cooperation of the population to adhere to their
controls and recommendations, the study evaluated the
results and generated graphs of "no controls", "some controls"
and "severe controls". "Severe controls" becomes obvious as
the only means of beating this thing.

3. In any event, it has not peaked yet and won't until May or June
in the best case and mid summer in a more realistic case.

Not a particularly encouraging study. It also suggests that
if not brought under control medical facilities, especially
in the hardest hit areas of the country, may find themselves
in the position of choosing who gets treated and who dies.

Annoying to me is my awareness of some people, young and old,
who seem to have determined that the controls and recommendations
don't apply to them, thus putting themselves and people they
come in contact with at risk.

Given the rate of climb in the past few days, I've redone my curve. It now
results in about 283,000 confirmed US cases by around 22 April, unless something
really drastic happens.

Yes, it's getting scary quickly!
--

Freedom Isn't Free!



Run your curve again adding the estimated 300,000 people the Columbia
University study believes exists *right now*.

That's very scary. Mycurve is based on a start of 26663 confirmed cases. Adding
300,000 to that would give an estimate of around 1,758,000 by 22 April. Let's
hope Columbia U is wrong.

On the other hand, if there are an additional 300K cases out there, that would
indicate the symptoms aren't bad enough for the folks to get 'confirmed'.



I'm tempted to test fate and get out there and catch it. I think catching it
now, before the hospitals are totally inundated, would be a good idea.
--

Freedom Isn't Free!


Could you add me to your will first? :-)




--
This email has been checked for viruses by AVG.
https://www.avg.com

sobering study
 

On 3/22/2020 10:17 AM, wrote:
On Sun, 22 Mar 2020 10:05:43 -0400, "Mr. Luddite"
wrote:

On 3/22/2020 10:00 AM, Adorable Deplorable wrote:
On Sun, 22 Mar 2020 09:01:50 -0400, "Mr. Luddite" wrote:

This morning I was reading some of the results from a study
done by Columbia University on the corvid-19 infection rates.

Highlights include:

1. The study concludes that there is actually 11 times the number
of people currently known to be carrying the virus. Based on
current known cases, that would indicate almost 300,000 people
in the USA, most who are carrying the virus but don't know it.

2. Based on the level of controls by fed and state governments
and the cooperation of the population to adhere to their
controls and recommendations, the study evaluated the
results and generated graphs of "no controls", "some controls"
and "severe controls". "Severe controls" becomes obvious as
the only means of beating this thing.

3. In any event, it has not peaked yet and won't until May or June
in the best case and mid summer in a more realistic case.

Not a particularly encouraging study. It also suggests that
if not brought under control medical facilities, especially
in the hardest hit areas of the country, may find themselves
in the position of choosing who gets treated and who dies.

Annoying to me is my awareness of some people, young and old,
who seem to have determined that the controls and recommendations
don't apply to them, thus putting themselves and people they
come in contact with at risk.

Given the rate of climb in the past few days, I've redone my curve. It now
results in about 283,000 confirmed US cases by around 22 April, unless something
really drastic happens.

Yes, it's getting scary quickly!
--

Freedom Isn't Free!



Run your curve again adding the estimated 300,000 people the Columbia
University study believes exists *right now*.

===

What was their methodology for estimating the number of unreported
cases?



Wayne, the study was reported in the New York Times today. You can read
more about it, the methodology, etc, at the link below.

One thing I missed ... and this is even more scary ... the study
suggests:

"Even if the country cut its rate of transmission in half — a tall order
— some 650,000 people might become infected in the next two months."

Link:

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/03/20/us/coronavirus-model-us-outbreak.html?&te=1&nl=morning-briefing&emc=edit_nn_20200322&campaign_id=9&instan ce_id=16976&segment_id=22540&user_id=dd7f8c99a5f94 a70971937d998bca33d&regi_id=116446437_nn_20200322

or:

https://tinyurl.com/wdvsqhb

--
This email has been checked for viruses by AVG.
https://www.avg.com

sobering study
 

On 3/22/20 10:47 AM, Mr. Luddite wrote:
On 3/22/2020 10:37 AM, Adorable Deplorable wrote:
On Sun, 22 Mar 2020 10:05:43 -0400, "Mr. Luddite"
wrote:

On 3/22/2020 10:00 AM, Adorable Deplorable wrote:
On Sun, 22 Mar 2020 09:01:50 -0400, "Mr. Luddite"
wrote:

This morning I was reading some of the results from a study
done by Columbia University on the corvid-19 infection rates.

Highlights include:

1. The study concludes that there is actually 11 times the number
Â*Â*Â*Â* of people currently known to be carrying the virus.Â* Based on
Â*Â*Â*Â* current known cases, that would indicate almost 300,000 people
Â*Â*Â*Â* in the USA, most who are carrying the virus but don't know it.

2. Based on the level of controls by fed and state governments
Â*Â*Â*Â* and the cooperation of the population to adhere to their
Â*Â*Â*Â* controls and recommendations, the study evaluated the
Â*Â*Â*Â* results and generated graphs of "no controls", "some controls"
Â*Â*Â*Â* and "severe controls".Â* "Severe controls" becomes obvious as
Â*Â*Â*Â* the only means of beating this thing.

3. In any event, it has not peaked yet and won't until May or June
Â*Â*Â*Â* in the best case and mid summer in a more realistic case.

Not a particularly encouraging study.Â* It also suggests that
if not brought under control medical facilities, especially
in the hardest hit areas of the country, may find themselves
in the position of choosing who gets treated and who dies.

Annoying to me is my awareness of some people, young and old,
who seem to have determined that the controls and recommendations
don't apply to them, thus putting themselves and people they
come in contact with at risk.

Given the rate of climb in the past few days, I've redone my curve.
It now
results in about 283,000 confirmed US cases by around 22 April,
unless something
really drastic happens.

Yes, it's getting scary quickly!
--

Freedom Isn't Free!



Run your curve again adding the estimated 300,000 people the Columbia
University study believes exists *right now*.

That's very scary. Mycurve is based on a start of 26663 confirmed
cases. Adding
300,000 to that would giveÂ* an estimate of around 1,758,000 by 22
April. Let's
hope Columbia U is wrong.

On the other hand, if there are an additional 300K cases out there,
that would
indicate the symptoms aren't bad enough for the folks to get 'confirmed'.



I'm tempted to test fate and get out there and catch it. I think
catching it
now, before the hospitals are totally inundated, would be a good idea.
--

Freedom Isn't Free!


Could you add me to your will first?Â*Â* :-)





What a great idea...Herring the Racist catching the virus for us and
reporting back. How do we encourage that?

sobering study
 

On 3/22/20 11:06 AM, Mr. Luddite wrote:
On 3/22/2020 10:17 AM, wrote:
On Sun, 22 Mar 2020 10:05:43 -0400, "Mr. Luddite"
wrote:

On 3/22/2020 10:00 AM, Adorable Deplorable wrote:
On Sun, 22 Mar 2020 09:01:50 -0400, "Mr. Luddite"
wrote:

This morning I was reading some of the results from a study
done by Columbia University on the corvid-19 infection rates.

Highlights include:

1. The study concludes that there is actually 11 times the number
Â*Â*Â*Â* of people currently known to be carrying the virus.Â* Based on
Â*Â*Â*Â* current known cases, that would indicate almost 300,000 people
Â*Â*Â*Â* in the USA, most who are carrying the virus but don't know it.

2. Based on the level of controls by fed and state governments
Â*Â*Â*Â* and the cooperation of the population to adhere to their
Â*Â*Â*Â* controls and recommendations, the study evaluated the
Â*Â*Â*Â* results and generated graphs of "no controls", "some controls"
Â*Â*Â*Â* and "severe controls".Â* "Severe controls" becomes obvious as
Â*Â*Â*Â* the only means of beating this thing.

3. In any event, it has not peaked yet and won't until May or June
Â*Â*Â*Â* in the best case and mid summer in a more realistic case.

Not a particularly encouraging study.Â* It also suggests that
if not brought under control medical facilities, especially
in the hardest hit areas of the country, may find themselves
in the position of choosing who gets treated and who dies.

Annoying to me is my awareness of some people, young and old,
who seem to have determined that the controls and recommendations
don't apply to them, thus putting themselves and people they
come in contact with at risk.

Given the rate of climb in the past few days, I've redone my curve.
It now
results in about 283,000 confirmed US cases by around 22 April,
unless something
really drastic happens.

Yes, it's getting scary quickly!
--

Freedom Isn't Free!



Run your curve again adding the estimated 300,000 people the Columbia
University study believes exists *right now*.

===

What was their methodology for estimating the number of unreported
cases?



Wayne, the study was reported in the New York Times today.Â* You can read
more about it, the methodology, etc, at the link below.

One thing I missed ... and this is even more scary ...Â* the study
suggests:

"Even if the country cut its rate of transmission in half — a tall order
— some 650,000 people might become infected in the next two months."

Link:

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/03/20/us/coronavirus-model-us-outbreak.html?&te=1&nl=morning-briefing&emc=edit_nn_20200322&campaign_id=9&instan ce_id=16976&segment_id=22540&user_id=dd7f8c99a5f94 a70971937d998bca33d&regi_id=116446437_nn_20200322


or:

https://tinyurl.com/wdvsqhb


Not to worry...your Trump said the warmer weather will take care of
Covoid-19. Right?