sobering study
 

This morning I was reading some of the results from a study
done by Columbia University on the corvid-19 infection rates.

Highlights include:

1. The study concludes that there is actually 11 times the number
of people currently known to be carrying the virus. Based on
current known cases, that would indicate almost 300,000 people
in the USA, most who are carrying the virus but don't know it.

2. Based on the level of controls by fed and state governments
and the cooperation of the population to adhere to their
controls and recommendations, the study evaluated the
results and generated graphs of "no controls", "some controls"
and "severe controls". "Severe controls" becomes obvious as
the only means of beating this thing.

3. In any event, it has not peaked yet and won't until May or June
in the best case and mid summer in a more realistic case.

Not a particularly encouraging study. It also suggests that
if not brought under control medical facilities, especially
in the hardest hit areas of the country, may find themselves
in the position of choosing who gets treated and who dies.

Annoying to me is my awareness of some people, young and old,
who seem to have determined that the controls and recommendations
don't apply to them, thus putting themselves and people they
come in contact with at risk.


--
This email has been checked for viruses by AVG.
https://www.avg.com

sobering study
 

On Sun, 22 Mar 2020 09:01:50 -0400, "Mr. Luddite" wrote:

This morning I was reading some of the results from a study
done by Columbia University on the corvid-19 infection rates.

Highlights include:

1. The study concludes that there is actually 11 times the number
of people currently known to be carrying the virus. Based on
current known cases, that would indicate almost 300,000 people
in the USA, most who are carrying the virus but don't know it.

2. Based on the level of controls by fed and state governments
and the cooperation of the population to adhere to their
controls and recommendations, the study evaluated the
results and generated graphs of "no controls", "some controls"
and "severe controls". "Severe controls" becomes obvious as
the only means of beating this thing.

3. In any event, it has not peaked yet and won't until May or June
in the best case and mid summer in a more realistic case.

Not a particularly encouraging study. It also suggests that
if not brought under control medical facilities, especially
in the hardest hit areas of the country, may find themselves
in the position of choosing who gets treated and who dies.

Annoying to me is my awareness of some people, young and old,
who seem to have determined that the controls and recommendations
don't apply to them, thus putting themselves and people they
come in contact with at risk.

Given the rate of climb in the past few days, I've redone my curve. It now
results in about 283,000 confirmed US cases by around 22 April, unless something
really drastic happens.

Yes, it's getting scary quickly!
--

Freedom Isn't Free!

sobering study
 

On 3/22/2020 10:00 AM, Adorable Deplorable wrote:
On Sun, 22 Mar 2020 09:01:50 -0400, "Mr. Luddite" wrote:

This morning I was reading some of the results from a study
done by Columbia University on the corvid-19 infection rates.

Highlights include:

1. The study concludes that there is actually 11 times the number
of people currently known to be carrying the virus. Based on
current known cases, that would indicate almost 300,000 people
in the USA, most who are carrying the virus but don't know it.

2. Based on the level of controls by fed and state governments
and the cooperation of the population to adhere to their
controls and recommendations, the study evaluated the
results and generated graphs of "no controls", "some controls"
and "severe controls". "Severe controls" becomes obvious as
the only means of beating this thing.

3. In any event, it has not peaked yet and won't until May or June
in the best case and mid summer in a more realistic case.

Not a particularly encouraging study. It also suggests that
if not brought under control medical facilities, especially
in the hardest hit areas of the country, may find themselves
in the position of choosing who gets treated and who dies.

Annoying to me is my awareness of some people, young and old,
who seem to have determined that the controls and recommendations
don't apply to them, thus putting themselves and people they
come in contact with at risk.

Given the rate of climb in the past few days, I've redone my curve. It now
results in about 283,000 confirmed US cases by around 22 April, unless something
really drastic happens.

Yes, it's getting scary quickly!
--

Freedom Isn't Free!



Run your curve again adding the estimated 300,000 people the Columbia
University study believes exists *right now*.



--
This email has been checked for viruses by AVG.
https://www.avg.com

sobering study
 

On Sun, 22 Mar 2020 10:05:43 -0400, "Mr. Luddite"
wrote:

On 3/22/2020 10:00 AM, Adorable Deplorable wrote:
On Sun, 22 Mar 2020 09:01:50 -0400, "Mr. Luddite" wrote:

This morning I was reading some of the results from a study
done by Columbia University on the corvid-19 infection rates.

Highlights include:

1. The study concludes that there is actually 11 times the number
of people currently known to be carrying the virus. Based on
current known cases, that would indicate almost 300,000 people
in the USA, most who are carrying the virus but don't know it.

2. Based on the level of controls by fed and state governments
and the cooperation of the population to adhere to their
controls and recommendations, the study evaluated the
results and generated graphs of "no controls", "some controls"
and "severe controls". "Severe controls" becomes obvious as
the only means of beating this thing.

3. In any event, it has not peaked yet and won't until May or June
in the best case and mid summer in a more realistic case.

Not a particularly encouraging study. It also suggests that
if not brought under control medical facilities, especially
in the hardest hit areas of the country, may find themselves
in the position of choosing who gets treated and who dies.

Annoying to me is my awareness of some people, young and old,
who seem to have determined that the controls and recommendations
don't apply to them, thus putting themselves and people they
come in contact with at risk.

Given the rate of climb in the past few days, I've redone my curve. It now
results in about 283,000 confirmed US cases by around 22 April, unless something
really drastic happens.

Yes, it's getting scary quickly!
--

Freedom Isn't Free!



Run your curve again adding the estimated 300,000 people the Columbia
University study believes exists *right now*.

===

What was their methodology for estimating the number of unreported
cases?

--
This email has been checked for viruses by AVG.
https://www.avg.com

sobering study
 

On 3/22/2020 10:17 AM, wrote:
On Sun, 22 Mar 2020 10:05:43 -0400, "Mr. Luddite"
wrote:

On 3/22/2020 10:00 AM, Adorable Deplorable wrote:
On Sun, 22 Mar 2020 09:01:50 -0400, "Mr. Luddite" wrote:

This morning I was reading some of the results from a study
done by Columbia University on the corvid-19 infection rates.

Highlights include:

1. The study concludes that there is actually 11 times the number
of people currently known to be carrying the virus. Based on
current known cases, that would indicate almost 300,000 people
in the USA, most who are carrying the virus but don't know it.

2. Based on the level of controls by fed and state governments
and the cooperation of the population to adhere to their
controls and recommendations, the study evaluated the
results and generated graphs of "no controls", "some controls"
and "severe controls". "Severe controls" becomes obvious as
the only means of beating this thing.

3. In any event, it has not peaked yet and won't until May or June
in the best case and mid summer in a more realistic case.

Not a particularly encouraging study. It also suggests that
if not brought under control medical facilities, especially
in the hardest hit areas of the country, may find themselves
in the position of choosing who gets treated and who dies.

Annoying to me is my awareness of some people, young and old,
who seem to have determined that the controls and recommendations
don't apply to them, thus putting themselves and people they
come in contact with at risk.

Given the rate of climb in the past few days, I've redone my curve. It now
results in about 283,000 confirmed US cases by around 22 April, unless something
really drastic happens.

Yes, it's getting scary quickly!
--

Freedom Isn't Free!



Run your curve again adding the estimated 300,000 people the Columbia
University study believes exists *right now*.

===



What was their methodology for estimating the number of unreported
cases?



I don't know Wayne. I was just reading their conclusions, as reported.


--
This email has been checked for viruses by AVG.
https://www.avg.com

sobering study
 

On Sun, 22 Mar 2020 10:05:43 -0400, "Mr. Luddite" wrote:

On 3/22/2020 10:00 AM, Adorable Deplorable wrote:
On Sun, 22 Mar 2020 09:01:50 -0400, "Mr. Luddite" wrote:

This morning I was reading some of the results from a study
done by Columbia University on the corvid-19 infection rates.

Highlights include:

1. The study concludes that there is actually 11 times the number
of people currently known to be carrying the virus. Based on
current known cases, that would indicate almost 300,000 people
in the USA, most who are carrying the virus but don't know it.

2. Based on the level of controls by fed and state governments
and the cooperation of the population to adhere to their
controls and recommendations, the study evaluated the
results and generated graphs of "no controls", "some controls"
and "severe controls". "Severe controls" becomes obvious as
the only means of beating this thing.

3. In any event, it has not peaked yet and won't until May or June
in the best case and mid summer in a more realistic case.

Not a particularly encouraging study. It also suggests that
if not brought under control medical facilities, especially
in the hardest hit areas of the country, may find themselves
in the position of choosing who gets treated and who dies.

Annoying to me is my awareness of some people, young and old,
who seem to have determined that the controls and recommendations
don't apply to them, thus putting themselves and people they
come in contact with at risk.

Given the rate of climb in the past few days, I've redone my curve. It now
results in about 283,000 confirmed US cases by around 22 April, unless something
really drastic happens.

Yes, it's getting scary quickly!
--

Freedom Isn't Free!



Run your curve again adding the estimated 300,000 people the Columbia
University study believes exists *right now*.

That's very scary. Mycurve is based on a start of 26663 confirmed cases. Adding
300,000 to that would give an estimate of around 1,758,000 by 22 April. Let's
hope Columbia U is wrong.

On the other hand, if there are an additional 300K cases out there, that would
indicate the symptoms aren't bad enough for the folks to get 'confirmed'.

I'm tempted to test fate and get out there and catch it. I think catching it
now, before the hospitals are totally inundated, would be a good idea.
--

Freedom Isn't Free!

sobering study
 

On 3/22/2020 10:37 AM, Adorable Deplorable wrote:
On Sun, 22 Mar 2020 10:05:43 -0400, "Mr. Luddite" wrote:

On 3/22/2020 10:00 AM, Adorable Deplorable wrote:
On Sun, 22 Mar 2020 09:01:50 -0400, "Mr. Luddite" wrote:

This morning I was reading some of the results from a study
done by Columbia University on the corvid-19 infection rates.

Highlights include:

1. The study concludes that there is actually 11 times the number
of people currently known to be carrying the virus. Based on
current known cases, that would indicate almost 300,000 people
in the USA, most who are carrying the virus but don't know it.

2. Based on the level of controls by fed and state governments
and the cooperation of the population to adhere to their
controls and recommendations, the study evaluated the
results and generated graphs of "no controls", "some controls"
and "severe controls". "Severe controls" becomes obvious as
the only means of beating this thing.

3. In any event, it has not peaked yet and won't until May or June
in the best case and mid summer in a more realistic case.

Not a particularly encouraging study. It also suggests that
if not brought under control medical facilities, especially
in the hardest hit areas of the country, may find themselves
in the position of choosing who gets treated and who dies.

Annoying to me is my awareness of some people, young and old,
who seem to have determined that the controls and recommendations
don't apply to them, thus putting themselves and people they
come in contact with at risk.

Given the rate of climb in the past few days, I've redone my curve. It now
results in about 283,000 confirmed US cases by around 22 April, unless something
really drastic happens.

Yes, it's getting scary quickly!
--

Freedom Isn't Free!



Run your curve again adding the estimated 300,000 people the Columbia
University study believes exists *right now*.

That's very scary. Mycurve is based on a start of 26663 confirmed cases. Adding
300,000 to that would give an estimate of around 1,758,000 by 22 April. Let's
hope Columbia U is wrong.

On the other hand, if there are an additional 300K cases out there, that would
indicate the symptoms aren't bad enough for the folks to get 'confirmed'.



I'm tempted to test fate and get out there and catch it. I think catching it
now, before the hospitals are totally inundated, would be a good idea.
--

Freedom Isn't Free!


Could you add me to your will first? :-)




--
This email has been checked for viruses by AVG.
https://www.avg.com

sobering study
 

On 3/22/2020 10:17 AM, wrote:
On Sun, 22 Mar 2020 10:05:43 -0400, "Mr. Luddite"
wrote:

On 3/22/2020 10:00 AM, Adorable Deplorable wrote:
On Sun, 22 Mar 2020 09:01:50 -0400, "Mr. Luddite" wrote:

This morning I was reading some of the results from a study
done by Columbia University on the corvid-19 infection rates.

Highlights include:

1. The study concludes that there is actually 11 times the number
of people currently known to be carrying the virus. Based on
current known cases, that would indicate almost 300,000 people
in the USA, most who are carrying the virus but don't know it.

2. Based on the level of controls by fed and state governments
and the cooperation of the population to adhere to their
controls and recommendations, the study evaluated the
results and generated graphs of "no controls", "some controls"
and "severe controls". "Severe controls" becomes obvious as
the only means of beating this thing.

3. In any event, it has not peaked yet and won't until May or June
in the best case and mid summer in a more realistic case.

Not a particularly encouraging study. It also suggests that
if not brought under control medical facilities, especially
in the hardest hit areas of the country, may find themselves
in the position of choosing who gets treated and who dies.

Annoying to me is my awareness of some people, young and old,
who seem to have determined that the controls and recommendations
don't apply to them, thus putting themselves and people they
come in contact with at risk.

Given the rate of climb in the past few days, I've redone my curve. It now
results in about 283,000 confirmed US cases by around 22 April, unless something
really drastic happens.

Yes, it's getting scary quickly!
--

Freedom Isn't Free!



Run your curve again adding the estimated 300,000 people the Columbia
University study believes exists *right now*.

===

What was their methodology for estimating the number of unreported
cases?



Wayne, the study was reported in the New York Times today. You can read
more about it, the methodology, etc, at the link below.

One thing I missed ... and this is even more scary ... the study
suggests:

"Even if the country cut its rate of transmission in half — a tall order
— some 650,000 people might become infected in the next two months."

Link:

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/03/20/us/coronavirus-model-us-outbreak.html?&te=1&nl=morning-briefing&emc=edit_nn_20200322&campaign_id=9&instan ce_id=16976&segment_id=22540&user_id=dd7f8c99a5f94 a70971937d998bca33d&regi_id=116446437_nn_20200322

or:

https://tinyurl.com/wdvsqhb

--
This email has been checked for viruses by AVG.
https://www.avg.com

sobering study
 

On 3/22/20 10:47 AM, Mr. Luddite wrote:
On 3/22/2020 10:37 AM, Adorable Deplorable wrote:
On Sun, 22 Mar 2020 10:05:43 -0400, "Mr. Luddite"
wrote:

On 3/22/2020 10:00 AM, Adorable Deplorable wrote:
On Sun, 22 Mar 2020 09:01:50 -0400, "Mr. Luddite"
wrote:

This morning I was reading some of the results from a study
done by Columbia University on the corvid-19 infection rates.

Highlights include:

1. The study concludes that there is actually 11 times the number
Â*Â*Â*Â* of people currently known to be carrying the virus.Â* Based on
Â*Â*Â*Â* current known cases, that would indicate almost 300,000 people
Â*Â*Â*Â* in the USA, most who are carrying the virus but don't know it.

2. Based on the level of controls by fed and state governments
Â*Â*Â*Â* and the cooperation of the population to adhere to their
Â*Â*Â*Â* controls and recommendations, the study evaluated the
Â*Â*Â*Â* results and generated graphs of "no controls", "some controls"
Â*Â*Â*Â* and "severe controls".Â* "Severe controls" becomes obvious as
Â*Â*Â*Â* the only means of beating this thing.

3. In any event, it has not peaked yet and won't until May or June
Â*Â*Â*Â* in the best case and mid summer in a more realistic case.

Not a particularly encouraging study.Â* It also suggests that
if not brought under control medical facilities, especially
in the hardest hit areas of the country, may find themselves
in the position of choosing who gets treated and who dies.

Annoying to me is my awareness of some people, young and old,
who seem to have determined that the controls and recommendations
don't apply to them, thus putting themselves and people they
come in contact with at risk.

Given the rate of climb in the past few days, I've redone my curve.
It now
results in about 283,000 confirmed US cases by around 22 April,
unless something
really drastic happens.

Yes, it's getting scary quickly!
--

Freedom Isn't Free!



Run your curve again adding the estimated 300,000 people the Columbia
University study believes exists *right now*.

That's very scary. Mycurve is based on a start of 26663 confirmed
cases. Adding
300,000 to that would giveÂ* an estimate of around 1,758,000 by 22
April. Let's
hope Columbia U is wrong.

On the other hand, if there are an additional 300K cases out there,
that would
indicate the symptoms aren't bad enough for the folks to get 'confirmed'.



I'm tempted to test fate and get out there and catch it. I think
catching it
now, before the hospitals are totally inundated, would be a good idea.
--

Freedom Isn't Free!


Could you add me to your will first?Â*Â* :-)





What a great idea...Herring the Racist catching the virus for us and
reporting back. How do we encourage that?

sobering study
 

On 3/22/20 11:06 AM, Mr. Luddite wrote:
On 3/22/2020 10:17 AM, wrote:
On Sun, 22 Mar 2020 10:05:43 -0400, "Mr. Luddite"
wrote:

On 3/22/2020 10:00 AM, Adorable Deplorable wrote:
On Sun, 22 Mar 2020 09:01:50 -0400, "Mr. Luddite"
wrote:

This morning I was reading some of the results from a study
done by Columbia University on the corvid-19 infection rates.

Highlights include:

1. The study concludes that there is actually 11 times the number
Â*Â*Â*Â* of people currently known to be carrying the virus.Â* Based on
Â*Â*Â*Â* current known cases, that would indicate almost 300,000 people
Â*Â*Â*Â* in the USA, most who are carrying the virus but don't know it.

2. Based on the level of controls by fed and state governments
Â*Â*Â*Â* and the cooperation of the population to adhere to their
Â*Â*Â*Â* controls and recommendations, the study evaluated the
Â*Â*Â*Â* results and generated graphs of "no controls", "some controls"
Â*Â*Â*Â* and "severe controls".Â* "Severe controls" becomes obvious as
Â*Â*Â*Â* the only means of beating this thing.

3. In any event, it has not peaked yet and won't until May or June
Â*Â*Â*Â* in the best case and mid summer in a more realistic case.

Not a particularly encouraging study.Â* It also suggests that
if not brought under control medical facilities, especially
in the hardest hit areas of the country, may find themselves
in the position of choosing who gets treated and who dies.

Annoying to me is my awareness of some people, young and old,
who seem to have determined that the controls and recommendations
don't apply to them, thus putting themselves and people they
come in contact with at risk.

Given the rate of climb in the past few days, I've redone my curve.
It now
results in about 283,000 confirmed US cases by around 22 April,
unless something
really drastic happens.

Yes, it's getting scary quickly!
--

Freedom Isn't Free!



Run your curve again adding the estimated 300,000 people the Columbia
University study believes exists *right now*.

===

What was their methodology for estimating the number of unreported
cases?



Wayne, the study was reported in the New York Times today.Â* You can read
more about it, the methodology, etc, at the link below.

One thing I missed ... and this is even more scary ...Â* the study
suggests:

"Even if the country cut its rate of transmission in half — a tall order
— some 650,000 people might become infected in the next two months."

Link:

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/03/20/us/coronavirus-model-us-outbreak.html?&te=1&nl=morning-briefing&emc=edit_nn_20200322&campaign_id=9&instan ce_id=16976&segment_id=22540&user_id=dd7f8c99a5f94 a70971937d998bca33d&regi_id=116446437_nn_20200322


or:

https://tinyurl.com/wdvsqhb


Not to worry...your Trump said the warmer weather will take care of
Covoid-19. Right?

sobering study
 

On 3/22/2020 11:07 AM, Keyser Soze wrote:
On 3/22/20 10:47 AM, Mr. Luddite wrote:
On 3/22/2020 10:37 AM, Adorable Deplorable wrote:
On Sun, 22 Mar 2020 10:05:43 -0400, "Mr. Luddite"
wrote:

On 3/22/2020 10:00 AM, Adorable Deplorable wrote:
On Sun, 22 Mar 2020 09:01:50 -0400, "Mr. Luddite"
wrote:

This morning I was reading some of the results from a study
done by Columbia University on the corvid-19 infection rates.

Highlights include:

1. The study concludes that there is actually 11 times the number
Â*Â*Â*Â* of people currently known to be carrying the virus.Â* Based on
Â*Â*Â*Â* current known cases, that would indicate almost 300,000 people
Â*Â*Â*Â* in the USA, most who are carrying the virus but don't know it.

2. Based on the level of controls by fed and state governments
Â*Â*Â*Â* and the cooperation of the population to adhere to their
Â*Â*Â*Â* controls and recommendations, the study evaluated the
Â*Â*Â*Â* results and generated graphs of "no controls", "some controls"
Â*Â*Â*Â* and "severe controls".Â* "Severe controls" becomes obvious as
Â*Â*Â*Â* the only means of beating this thing.

3. In any event, it has not peaked yet and won't until May or June
Â*Â*Â*Â* in the best case and mid summer in a more realistic case.

Not a particularly encouraging study.Â* It also suggests that
if not brought under control medical facilities, especially
in the hardest hit areas of the country, may find themselves
in the position of choosing who gets treated and who dies.

Annoying to me is my awareness of some people, young and old,
who seem to have determined that the controls and recommendations
don't apply to them, thus putting themselves and people they
come in contact with at risk.

Given the rate of climb in the past few days, I've redone my curve.
It now
results in about 283,000 confirmed US cases by around 22 April,
unless something
really drastic happens.

Yes, it's getting scary quickly!
--

Freedom Isn't Free!



Run your curve again adding the estimated 300,000 people the Columbia
University study believes exists *right now*.

That's very scary. Mycurve is based on a start of 26663 confirmed
cases. Adding
300,000 to that would giveÂ* an estimate of around 1,758,000 by 22
April. Let's
hope Columbia U is wrong.

On the other hand, if there are an additional 300K cases out there,
that would
indicate the symptoms aren't bad enough for the folks to get
'confirmed'.



I'm tempted to test fate and get out there and catch it. I think
catching it
now, before the hospitals are totally inundated, would be a good idea.
--

Freedom Isn't Free!


Could you add me to your will first?Â*Â* :-)





What a great idea...Herring the Racist catching the virus for us and
reporting back. How do we encourage that?


Are you sure some virus or bug hasn't been in your skull for the past
few months, devouring whatever brain cells you have left?

--
This email has been checked for viruses by AVG.
https://www.avg.com

sobering study
 

On 3/22/20 11:13 AM, Mr. Luddite wrote:
On 3/22/2020 11:07 AM, Keyser Soze wrote:
On 3/22/20 10:47 AM, Mr. Luddite wrote:
On 3/22/2020 10:37 AM, Adorable Deplorable wrote:
On Sun, 22 Mar 2020 10:05:43 -0400, "Mr. Luddite"
wrote:

On 3/22/2020 10:00 AM, Adorable Deplorable wrote:
On Sun, 22 Mar 2020 09:01:50 -0400, "Mr. Luddite"
wrote:

This morning I was reading some of the results from a study
done by Columbia University on the corvid-19 infection rates.

Highlights include:

1. The study concludes that there is actually 11 times the number
Â*Â*Â*Â* of people currently known to be carrying the virus.Â* Based on
Â*Â*Â*Â* current known cases, that would indicate almost 300,000 people
Â*Â*Â*Â* in the USA, most who are carrying the virus but don't know it.

2. Based on the level of controls by fed and state governments
Â*Â*Â*Â* and the cooperation of the population to adhere to their
Â*Â*Â*Â* controls and recommendations, the study evaluated the
Â*Â*Â*Â* results and generated graphs of "no controls", "some controls"
Â*Â*Â*Â* and "severe controls".Â* "Severe controls" becomes obvious as
Â*Â*Â*Â* the only means of beating this thing.

3. In any event, it has not peaked yet and won't until May or June
Â*Â*Â*Â* in the best case and mid summer in a more realistic case.

Not a particularly encouraging study.Â* It also suggests that
if not brought under control medical facilities, especially
in the hardest hit areas of the country, may find themselves
in the position of choosing who gets treated and who dies.

Annoying to me is my awareness of some people, young and old,
who seem to have determined that the controls and recommendations
don't apply to them, thus putting themselves and people they
come in contact with at risk.

Given the rate of climb in the past few days, I've redone my
curve. It now
results in about 283,000 confirmed US cases by around 22 April,
unless something
really drastic happens.

Yes, it's getting scary quickly!
--

Freedom Isn't Free!



Run your curve again adding the estimated 300,000 people the Columbia
University study believes exists *right now*.

That's very scary. Mycurve is based on a start of 26663 confirmed
cases. Adding
300,000 to that would giveÂ* an estimate of around 1,758,000 by 22
April. Let's
hope Columbia U is wrong.

On the other hand, if there are an additional 300K cases out there,
that would
indicate the symptoms aren't bad enough for the folks to get
'confirmed'.



I'm tempted to test fate and get out there and catch it. I think
catching it
now, before the hospitals are totally inundated, would be a good idea.
--

Freedom Isn't Free!


Could you add me to your will first?Â*Â* :-)





What a great idea...Herring the Racist catching the virus for us and
reporting back. How do we encourage that?


Are you sure some virus or bug hasn't been in your skull for the past
few months, devouring whatever brain cells you have left?

Perhaps, but I've still got enough smarts left to think I should
"...test fate and get out there and catch it..." is a really bad idea.

And, again, how do we encourage Herring?

sobering study
 

On 3/22/2020 11:11 AM, Keyser Soze wrote:
On 3/22/20 11:06 AM, Mr. Luddite wrote:
On 3/22/2020 10:17 AM, wrote:
On Sun, 22 Mar 2020 10:05:43 -0400, "Mr. Luddite"
wrote:

On 3/22/2020 10:00 AM, Adorable Deplorable wrote:
On Sun, 22 Mar 2020 09:01:50 -0400, "Mr. Luddite"
wrote:

This morning I was reading some of the results from a study
done by Columbia University on the corvid-19 infection rates.

Highlights include:

1. The study concludes that there is actually 11 times the number
Â*Â*Â*Â* of people currently known to be carrying the virus.Â* Based on
Â*Â*Â*Â* current known cases, that would indicate almost 300,000 people
Â*Â*Â*Â* in the USA, most who are carrying the virus but don't know it.

2. Based on the level of controls by fed and state governments
Â*Â*Â*Â* and the cooperation of the population to adhere to their
Â*Â*Â*Â* controls and recommendations, the study evaluated the
Â*Â*Â*Â* results and generated graphs of "no controls", "some controls"
Â*Â*Â*Â* and "severe controls".Â* "Severe controls" becomes obvious as
Â*Â*Â*Â* the only means of beating this thing.

3. In any event, it has not peaked yet and won't until May or June
Â*Â*Â*Â* in the best case and mid summer in a more realistic case.

Not a particularly encouraging study.Â* It also suggests that
if not brought under control medical facilities, especially
in the hardest hit areas of the country, may find themselves
in the position of choosing who gets treated and who dies.

Annoying to me is my awareness of some people, young and old,
who seem to have determined that the controls and recommendations
don't apply to them, thus putting themselves and people they
come in contact with at risk.

Given the rate of climb in the past few days, I've redone my curve.
It now
results in about 283,000 confirmed US cases by around 22 April,
unless something
really drastic happens.

Yes, it's getting scary quickly!
--

Freedom Isn't Free!



Run your curve again adding the estimated 300,000 people the Columbia
University study believes exists *right now*.

===

What was their methodology for estimating the number of unreported
cases?



Wayne, the study was reported in the New York Times today.Â* You can
read more about it, the methodology, etc, at the link below.

One thing I missed ... and this is even more scary ...Â* the study
suggests:

"Even if the country cut its rate of transmission in half — a tall
order — some 650,000 people might become infected in the next two
months."

Link:

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/03/20/us/coronavirus-model-us-outbreak.html?&te=1&nl=morning-briefing&emc=edit_nn_20200322&campaign_id=9&instan ce_id=16976&segment_id=22540&user_id=dd7f8c99a5f94 a70971937d998bca33d&regi_id=116446437_nn_20200322


or:

https://tinyurl.com/wdvsqhb


Not to worry...your Trump said the warmer weather will take care of
Covoid-19. Right?


No. He didn't.

--
This email has been checked for viruses by AVG.
https://www.avg.com

sobering study
 

On Sunday, March 22, 2020 at 11:15:13 AM UTC-4, Keyser Soze wrote:
On 3/22/20 11:13 AM, Mr. Luddite wrote:
On 3/22/2020 11:07 AM, Keyser Soze wrote:
On 3/22/20 10:47 AM, Mr. Luddite wrote:
On 3/22/2020 10:37 AM, Adorable Deplorable wrote:
On Sun, 22 Mar 2020 10:05:43 -0400, "Mr. Luddite"
wrote:

On 3/22/2020 10:00 AM, Adorable Deplorable wrote:
On Sun, 22 Mar 2020 09:01:50 -0400, "Mr. Luddite"
wrote:

This morning I was reading some of the results from a study
done by Columbia University on the corvid-19 infection rates.

Highlights include:

1. The study concludes that there is actually 11 times the number
Â*Â*Â*Â* of people currently known to be carrying the virus.Â* Based on
Â*Â*Â*Â* current known cases, that would indicate almost 300,000 people
Â*Â*Â*Â* in the USA, most who are carrying the virus but don't know it.

2. Based on the level of controls by fed and state governments
Â*Â*Â*Â* and the cooperation of the population to adhere to their
Â*Â*Â*Â* controls and recommendations, the study evaluated the
Â*Â*Â*Â* results and generated graphs of "no controls", "some controls"
Â*Â*Â*Â* and "severe controls".Â* "Severe controls" becomes obvious as
Â*Â*Â*Â* the only means of beating this thing.

3. In any event, it has not peaked yet and won't until May or June
Â*Â*Â*Â* in the best case and mid summer in a more realistic case.

Not a particularly encouraging study.Â* It also suggests that
if not brought under control medical facilities, especially
in the hardest hit areas of the country, may find themselves
in the position of choosing who gets treated and who dies.

Annoying to me is my awareness of some people, young and old,
who seem to have determined that the controls and recommendations
don't apply to them, thus putting themselves and people they
come in contact with at risk.

Given the rate of climb in the past few days, I've redone my
curve. It now
results in about 283,000 confirmed US cases by around 22 April,
unless something
really drastic happens.

Yes, it's getting scary quickly!
--

Freedom Isn't Free!



Run your curve again adding the estimated 300,000 people the Columbia
University study believes exists *right now*.

That's very scary. Mycurve is based on a start of 26663 confirmed
cases. Adding
300,000 to that would giveÂ* an estimate of around 1,758,000 by 22
April. Let's
hope Columbia U is wrong.

On the other hand, if there are an additional 300K cases out there,
that would
indicate the symptoms aren't bad enough for the folks to get
'confirmed'.



I'm tempted to test fate and get out there and catch it. I think
catching it
now, before the hospitals are totally inundated, would be a good idea.
--

Freedom Isn't Free!


Could you add me to your will first?Â*Â* :-)





What a great idea...Herring the Racist catching the virus for us and
reporting back. How do we encourage that?


Are you sure some virus or bug hasn't been in your skull for the past
few months, devouring whatever brain cells you have left?

Perhaps, but I've still got enough smarts left to think I should
"...test fate and get out there and catch it..." is a really bad idea.

You left off "before the hospitals are totally inundated". You say you're the paragon of health. If you catch it when the hospitals are full, you'll have no problems beating it, right? You'll just hop on the bus, ride it into DC, and check into that special hospital room they've reserved just for you, eh?

:)

sobering study
 

On 3/22/20 11:21 AM, Mr. Luddite wrote:
On 3/22/2020 11:11 AM, Keyser Soze wrote:
On 3/22/20 11:06 AM, Mr. Luddite wrote:
On 3/22/2020 10:17 AM, wrote:
On Sun, 22 Mar 2020 10:05:43 -0400, "Mr. Luddite"
wrote:

On 3/22/2020 10:00 AM, Adorable Deplorable wrote:
On Sun, 22 Mar 2020 09:01:50 -0400, "Mr. Luddite"
wrote:

This morning I was reading some of the results from a study
done by Columbia University on the corvid-19 infection rates.

Highlights include:

1. The study concludes that there is actually 11 times the number
Â*Â*Â*Â* of people currently known to be carrying the virus.Â* Based on
Â*Â*Â*Â* current known cases, that would indicate almost 300,000 people
Â*Â*Â*Â* in the USA, most who are carrying the virus but don't know it.

2. Based on the level of controls by fed and state governments
Â*Â*Â*Â* and the cooperation of the population to adhere to their
Â*Â*Â*Â* controls and recommendations, the study evaluated the
Â*Â*Â*Â* results and generated graphs of "no controls", "some controls"
Â*Â*Â*Â* and "severe controls".Â* "Severe controls" becomes obvious as
Â*Â*Â*Â* the only means of beating this thing.

3. In any event, it has not peaked yet and won't until May or June
Â*Â*Â*Â* in the best case and mid summer in a more realistic case.

Not a particularly encouraging study.Â* It also suggests that
if not brought under control medical facilities, especially
in the hardest hit areas of the country, may find themselves
in the position of choosing who gets treated and who dies.

Annoying to me is my awareness of some people, young and old,
who seem to have determined that the controls and recommendations
don't apply to them, thus putting themselves and people they
come in contact with at risk.

Given the rate of climb in the past few days, I've redone my
curve. It now
results in about 283,000 confirmed US cases by around 22 April,
unless something
really drastic happens.

Yes, it's getting scary quickly!
--

Freedom Isn't Free!



Run your curve again adding the estimated 300,000 people the Columbia
University study believes exists *right now*.

===

What was their methodology for estimating the number of unreported
cases?



Wayne, the study was reported in the New York Times today.Â* You can
read more about it, the methodology, etc, at the link below.

One thing I missed ... and this is even more scary ...Â* the study
suggests:

"Even if the country cut its rate of transmission in half — a tall
order — some 650,000 people might become infected in the next two
months."

Link:

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/03/20/us/coronavirus-model-us-outbreak.html?&te=1&nl=morning-briefing&emc=edit_nn_20200322&campaign_id=9&instan ce_id=16976&segment_id=22540&user_id=dd7f8c99a5f94 a70971937d998bca33d&regi_id=116446437_nn_20200322


or:

https://tinyurl.com/wdvsqhb


Not to worry...your Trump said the warmer weather will take care of
Covoid-19. Right?


No.Â* He didn't.

From Marke****ch:

Trump told supporters at a rally in New Hampshire in early March that
the virus will be gone by April, claiming that when temperatures rise,
“the virus� will “miraculously� go away. Chinese President Xi Jinping
has said the same, Trump said. The latest deadly coronavirus, eventually
referenced as COVID-19, first emerged in China at the end of last year.

“The virus that we’re talking about having to do, a lot of people think
that goes away in April, with the heat, as the heat comes in, typically
that will go away in April,� Trump repeated later to a group of governors.

sobering study
 

On Sun, 22 Mar 2020 11:06:56 -0400, "Mr. Luddite"
wrote:

On 3/22/2020 10:17 AM, wrote:
On Sun, 22 Mar 2020 10:05:43 -0400, "Mr. Luddite"
wrote:

On 3/22/2020 10:00 AM, Adorable Deplorable wrote:
On Sun, 22 Mar 2020 09:01:50 -0400, "Mr. Luddite" wrote:

This morning I was reading some of the results from a study
done by Columbia University on the corvid-19 infection rates.

Highlights include:

1. The study concludes that there is actually 11 times the number
of people currently known to be carrying the virus. Based on
current known cases, that would indicate almost 300,000 people
in the USA, most who are carrying the virus but don't know it.

2. Based on the level of controls by fed and state governments
and the cooperation of the population to adhere to their
controls and recommendations, the study evaluated the
results and generated graphs of "no controls", "some controls"
and "severe controls". "Severe controls" becomes obvious as
the only means of beating this thing.

3. In any event, it has not peaked yet and won't until May or June
in the best case and mid summer in a more realistic case.

Not a particularly encouraging study. It also suggests that
if not brought under control medical facilities, especially
in the hardest hit areas of the country, may find themselves
in the position of choosing who gets treated and who dies.

Annoying to me is my awareness of some people, young and old,
who seem to have determined that the controls and recommendations
don't apply to them, thus putting themselves and people they
come in contact with at risk.

Given the rate of climb in the past few days, I've redone my curve. It now
results in about 283,000 confirmed US cases by around 22 April, unless something
really drastic happens.

Yes, it's getting scary quickly!
--

Freedom Isn't Free!



Run your curve again adding the estimated 300,000 people the Columbia
University study believes exists *right now*.

===

What was their methodology for estimating the number of unreported
cases?



Wayne, the study was reported in the New York Times today. You can read
more about it, the methodology, etc, at the link below.

One thing I missed ... and this is even more scary ... the study
suggests:

"Even if the country cut its rate of transmission in half — a tall order
— some 650,000 people might become infected in the next two months."

Link:

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/03/20/us/coronavirus-model-us-outbreak.html?&te=1&nl=morning-briefing&emc=edit_nn_20200322&campaign_id=9&instan ce_id=16976&segment_id=22540&user_id=dd7f8c99a5f94 a70971937d998bca33d&regi_id=116446437_nn_20200322

or:

https://tinyurl.com/wdvsqhb

===

Thanks. As best I can tell they inferred the number of unreported
infections based on the rate of new infections spreading. Apparently
they validated their assumptions with statistical methods and peer
review. That's probably as good as it gets in the absence of wide
spread testing.


--
This email has been checked for viruses by AVG.
https://www.avg.com

sobering study
 

On Sun, 22 Mar 2020 10:47:20 -0400, "Mr. Luddite" wrote:

On 3/22/2020 10:37 AM, Adorable Deplorable wrote:
On Sun, 22 Mar 2020 10:05:43 -0400, "Mr. Luddite" wrote:

On 3/22/2020 10:00 AM, Adorable Deplorable wrote:
On Sun, 22 Mar 2020 09:01:50 -0400, "Mr. Luddite" wrote:

This morning I was reading some of the results from a study
done by Columbia University on the corvid-19 infection rates.

Highlights include:

1. The study concludes that there is actually 11 times the number
of people currently known to be carrying the virus. Based on
current known cases, that would indicate almost 300,000 people
in the USA, most who are carrying the virus but don't know it.

2. Based on the level of controls by fed and state governments
and the cooperation of the population to adhere to their
controls and recommendations, the study evaluated the
results and generated graphs of "no controls", "some controls"
and "severe controls". "Severe controls" becomes obvious as
the only means of beating this thing.

3. In any event, it has not peaked yet and won't until May or June
in the best case and mid summer in a more realistic case.

Not a particularly encouraging study. It also suggests that
if not brought under control medical facilities, especially
in the hardest hit areas of the country, may find themselves
in the position of choosing who gets treated and who dies.

Annoying to me is my awareness of some people, young and old,
who seem to have determined that the controls and recommendations
don't apply to them, thus putting themselves and people they
come in contact with at risk.

Given the rate of climb in the past few days, I've redone my curve. It now
results in about 283,000 confirmed US cases by around 22 April, unless something
really drastic happens.

Yes, it's getting scary quickly!
--

Freedom Isn't Free!



Run your curve again adding the estimated 300,000 people the Columbia
University study believes exists *right now*.

That's very scary. Mycurve is based on a start of 26663 confirmed cases. Adding
300,000 to that would give an estimate of around 1,758,000 by 22 April. Let's
hope Columbia U is wrong.

On the other hand, if there are an additional 300K cases out there, that would
indicate the symptoms aren't bad enough for the folks to get 'confirmed'.



I'm tempted to test fate and get out there and catch it. I think catching it
now, before the hospitals are totally inundated, would be a good idea.
--

Freedom Isn't Free!


Could you add me to your will first? :-)

Do you think my chances will be better in six months?
--

Freedom Isn't Free!

sobering study
 

On Sun, 22 Mar 2020 11:11:00 -0400, Keyser Soze
wrote:

"Even if the country cut its rate of transmission in half — a tall order
— some 650,000 people might become infected in the next two months."

Link:

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/03/20/us/coronavirus-model-us-outbreak.html?&te=1&nl=morning-briefing&emc=edit_nn_20200322&campaign_id=9&instan ce_id=16976&segment_id=22540&user_id=dd7f8c99a5f94 a70971937d998bca33d&regi_id=116446437_nn_20200322


or:

https://tinyurl.com/wdvsqhb


Not to worry...your Trump said the warmer weather will take care of
Covoid-19. Right?

===

It's good to know that your inner arse'l is still functioning
normally. We'd start to worry if you suddenly went normal on us.

--
This email has been checked for viruses by AVG.
https://www.avg.com

sobering study
 

On Sun, 22 Mar 2020 11:06:56 -0400, "Mr. Luddite" wrote:

On 3/22/2020 10:17 AM, wrote:
On Sun, 22 Mar 2020 10:05:43 -0400, "Mr. Luddite"
wrote:

On 3/22/2020 10:00 AM, Adorable Deplorable wrote:
On Sun, 22 Mar 2020 09:01:50 -0400, "Mr. Luddite" wrote:

This morning I was reading some of the results from a study
done by Columbia University on the corvid-19 infection rates.

Highlights include:

1. The study concludes that there is actually 11 times the number
of people currently known to be carrying the virus. Based on
current known cases, that would indicate almost 300,000 people
in the USA, most who are carrying the virus but don't know it.

2. Based on the level of controls by fed and state governments
and the cooperation of the population to adhere to their
controls and recommendations, the study evaluated the
results and generated graphs of "no controls", "some controls"
and "severe controls". "Severe controls" becomes obvious as
the only means of beating this thing.

3. In any event, it has not peaked yet and won't until May or June
in the best case and mid summer in a more realistic case.

Not a particularly encouraging study. It also suggests that
if not brought under control medical facilities, especially
in the hardest hit areas of the country, may find themselves
in the position of choosing who gets treated and who dies.

Annoying to me is my awareness of some people, young and old,
who seem to have determined that the controls and recommendations
don't apply to them, thus putting themselves and people they
come in contact with at risk.

Given the rate of climb in the past few days, I've redone my curve. It now
results in about 283,000 confirmed US cases by around 22 April, unless something
really drastic happens.

Yes, it's getting scary quickly!
--

Freedom Isn't Free!



Run your curve again adding the estimated 300,000 people the Columbia
University study believes exists *right now*.

===

What was their methodology for estimating the number of unreported
cases?



Wayne, the study was reported in the New York Times today. You can read
more about it, the methodology, etc, at the link below.

One thing I missed ... and this is even more scary ... the study
suggests:

"Even if the country cut its rate of transmission in half — a tall order
— some 650,000 people might become infected in the next two months."

Link:

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/03/20/us/coronavirus-model-us-outbreak.html?&te=1&nl=morning-briefing&emc=edit_nn_20200322&campaign_id=9&instan ce_id=16976&segment_id=22540&user_id=dd7f8c99a5f94 a70971937d998bca33d&regi_id=116446437_nn_20200322

or:

https://tinyurl.com/wdvsqhb

Sounds pretty close to my projection!
--

Freedom Isn't Free!

sobering study
 

On Sun, 22 Mar 2020 11:27:22 -0400, Keyser Soze wrote:

On 3/22/20 11:21 AM, Mr. Luddite wrote:
On 3/22/2020 11:11 AM, Keyser Soze wrote:
On 3/22/20 11:06 AM, Mr. Luddite wrote:
On 3/22/2020 10:17 AM, wrote:
On Sun, 22 Mar 2020 10:05:43 -0400, "Mr. Luddite"
wrote:

On 3/22/2020 10:00 AM, Adorable Deplorable wrote:
On Sun, 22 Mar 2020 09:01:50 -0400, "Mr. Luddite"
wrote:

This morning I was reading some of the results from a study
done by Columbia University on the corvid-19 infection rates.

Highlights include:

1. The study concludes that there is actually 11 times the number
**** of people currently known to be carrying the virus.* Based on
**** current known cases, that would indicate almost 300,000 people
**** in the USA, most who are carrying the virus but don't know it.

2. Based on the level of controls by fed and state governments
**** and the cooperation of the population to adhere to their
**** controls and recommendations, the study evaluated the
**** results and generated graphs of "no controls", "some controls"
**** and "severe controls".* "Severe controls" becomes obvious as
**** the only means of beating this thing.

3. In any event, it has not peaked yet and won't until May or June
**** in the best case and mid summer in a more realistic case.

Not a particularly encouraging study.* It also suggests that
if not brought under control medical facilities, especially
in the hardest hit areas of the country, may find themselves
in the position of choosing who gets treated and who dies.

Annoying to me is my awareness of some people, young and old,
who seem to have determined that the controls and recommendations
don't apply to them, thus putting themselves and people they
come in contact with at risk.

Given the rate of climb in the past few days, I've redone my
curve. It now
results in about 283,000 confirmed US cases by around 22 April,
unless something
really drastic happens.

Yes, it's getting scary quickly!
--

Freedom Isn't Free!



Run your curve again adding the estimated 300,000 people the Columbia
University study believes exists *right now*.

===

What was their methodology for estimating the number of unreported
cases?



Wayne, the study was reported in the New York Times today.* You can
read more about it, the methodology, etc, at the link below.

One thing I missed ... and this is even more scary ...* the study
suggests:

"Even if the country cut its rate of transmission in half — a tall
order — some 650,000 people might become infected in the next two
months."

Link:

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/03/20/us/coronavirus-model-us-outbreak.html?&te=1&nl=morning-briefing&emc=edit_nn_20200322&campaign_id=9&instan ce_id=16976&segment_id=22540&user_id=dd7f8c99a5f94 a70971937d998bca33d&regi_id=116446437_nn_20200322


or:

https://tinyurl.com/wdvsqhb


Not to worry...your Trump said the warmer weather will take care of
Covoid-19. Right?


No.* He didn't.

From Marke****ch:

Trump told supporters at a rally in New Hampshire in early March that
the virus will be gone by April, claiming that when temperatures rise,
“the virus” will “miraculously” go away. Chinese President Xi Jinping
has said the same, Trump said. The latest deadly coronavirus, eventually
referenced as COVID-19, first emerged in China at the end of last year.

“The virus that we’re talking about having to do, a lot of people think
that goes away in April, with the heat, as the heat comes in, typically
that will go away in April,” Trump repeated later to a group of governors.

Cite? Liar.
--

Freedom Isn't Free!

sobering study
 

On Sun, 22 Mar 2020 10:37:42 -0400, Adorable Deplorable
wrote:

I'm tempted to test fate and get out there and catch it. I think catching it
now, before the hospitals are totally inundated, would be a good idea.

===

At you age that would be a poor betting strategy. The fatality rate
for people over 70 is very high even with expert care.

--
This email has been checked for viruses by AVG.
https://www.avg.com

sobering study
 

wrote:
On Sun, 22 Mar 2020 10:37:42 -0400, Adorable Deplorable
wrote:

I'm tempted to test fate and get out there and catch it. I think catching it
now, before the hospitals are totally inundated, would be a good idea.

===

At you age that would be a poor betting strategy. The fatality rate
for people over 70 is very high even with expert care.


6 months may have a handle on cures.

sobering study
 

On Sun, 22 Mar 2020 08:25:27 -0700 (PDT), Its Me wrote:

On Sunday, March 22, 2020 at 11:15:13 AM UTC-4, Keyser Soze wrote:
On 3/22/20 11:13 AM, Mr. Luddite wrote:
On 3/22/2020 11:07 AM, Keyser Soze wrote:
On 3/22/20 10:47 AM, Mr. Luddite wrote:
On 3/22/2020 10:37 AM, Adorable Deplorable wrote:
On Sun, 22 Mar 2020 10:05:43 -0400, "Mr. Luddite"
wrote:

On 3/22/2020 10:00 AM, Adorable Deplorable wrote:
On Sun, 22 Mar 2020 09:01:50 -0400, "Mr. Luddite"
wrote:

This morning I was reading some of the results from a study
done by Columbia University on the corvid-19 infection rates.

Highlights include:

1. The study concludes that there is actually 11 times the number
**** of people currently known to be carrying the virus.* Based on
**** current known cases, that would indicate almost 300,000 people
**** in the USA, most who are carrying the virus but don't know it.

2. Based on the level of controls by fed and state governments
**** and the cooperation of the population to adhere to their
**** controls and recommendations, the study evaluated the
**** results and generated graphs of "no controls", "some controls"
**** and "severe controls".* "Severe controls" becomes obvious as
**** the only means of beating this thing.

3. In any event, it has not peaked yet and won't until May or June
**** in the best case and mid summer in a more realistic case.

Not a particularly encouraging study.* It also suggests that
if not brought under control medical facilities, especially
in the hardest hit areas of the country, may find themselves
in the position of choosing who gets treated and who dies.

Annoying to me is my awareness of some people, young and old,
who seem to have determined that the controls and recommendations
don't apply to them, thus putting themselves and people they
come in contact with at risk.

Given the rate of climb in the past few days, I've redone my
curve. It now
results in about 283,000 confirmed US cases by around 22 April,
unless something
really drastic happens.

Yes, it's getting scary quickly!
--

Freedom Isn't Free!



Run your curve again adding the estimated 300,000 people the Columbia
University study believes exists *right now*.

That's very scary. Mycurve is based on a start of 26663 confirmed
cases. Adding
300,000 to that would give* an estimate of around 1,758,000 by 22
April. Let's
hope Columbia U is wrong.

On the other hand, if there are an additional 300K cases out there,
that would
indicate the symptoms aren't bad enough for the folks to get
'confirmed'.



I'm tempted to test fate and get out there and catch it. I think
catching it
now, before the hospitals are totally inundated, would be a good idea.
--

Freedom Isn't Free!


Could you add me to your will first?** :-)





What a great idea...Herring the Racist catching the virus for us and
reporting back. How do we encourage that?


Are you sure some virus or bug hasn't been in your skull for the past
few months, devouring whatever brain cells you have left?

Perhaps, but I've still got enough smarts left to think I should
"...test fate and get out there and catch it..." is a really bad idea.

You left off "before the hospitals are totally inundated". You say you're the paragon of health. If you catch it when the hospitals are full, you'll have no problems beating it, right? You'll just hop on the bus, ride it into DC, and check into that special hospital room they've reserved just for you, eh?

:)


LOL!
--

Freedom Isn't Free!

sobering study
 

On Sun, 22 Mar 2020 13:49:25 -0400, wrote:

On Sun, 22 Mar 2020 10:37:42 -0400, Adorable Deplorable
wrote:

I'm tempted to test fate and get out there and catch it. I think catching it
now, before the hospitals are totally inundated, would be a good idea.

===

At you age that would be a poor betting strategy. The fatality rate
for people over 70 is very high even with expert care.

True, but with expert care some are living. I'm thinking in six months the
expert care may be inundated - no ventilators left.
--

Freedom Isn't Free!

sobering study
 

On Sun, 22 Mar 2020 18:10:49 -0000 (UTC), Bill
wrote:

wrote:
On Sun, 22 Mar 2020 10:37:42 -0400, Adorable Deplorable
wrote:

I'm tempted to test fate and get out there and catch it. I think catching it
now, before the hospitals are totally inundated, would be a good idea.

===

At you age that would be a poor betting strategy. The fatality rate
for people over 70 is very high even with expert care.


6 months may have a handle on cures.

That would be nice!
--

Freedom Isn't Free!

sobering study
 

On Sun, 22 Mar 2020 10:37:42 -0400, Adorable Deplorable
wrote:

On Sun, 22 Mar 2020 10:05:43 -0400, "Mr. Luddite" wrote:

On 3/22/2020 10:00 AM, Adorable Deplorable wrote:
On Sun, 22 Mar 2020 09:01:50 -0400, "Mr. Luddite" wrote:

This morning I was reading some of the results from a study
done by Columbia University on the corvid-19 infection rates.

Highlights include:

1. The study concludes that there is actually 11 times the number
of people currently known to be carrying the virus. Based on
current known cases, that would indicate almost 300,000 people
in the USA, most who are carrying the virus but don't know it.

2. Based on the level of controls by fed and state governments
and the cooperation of the population to adhere to their
controls and recommendations, the study evaluated the
results and generated graphs of "no controls", "some controls"
and "severe controls". "Severe controls" becomes obvious as
the only means of beating this thing.

3. In any event, it has not peaked yet and won't until May or June
in the best case and mid summer in a more realistic case.

Not a particularly encouraging study. It also suggests that
if not brought under control medical facilities, especially
in the hardest hit areas of the country, may find themselves
in the position of choosing who gets treated and who dies.

Annoying to me is my awareness of some people, young and old,
who seem to have determined that the controls and recommendations
don't apply to them, thus putting themselves and people they
come in contact with at risk.

Given the rate of climb in the past few days, I've redone my curve. It now
results in about 283,000 confirmed US cases by around 22 April, unless something
really drastic happens.

Yes, it's getting scary quickly!
--

Freedom Isn't Free!



Run your curve again adding the estimated 300,000 people the Columbia
University study believes exists *right now*.

That's very scary. Mycurve is based on a start of 26663 confirmed cases. Adding
300,000 to that would give an estimate of around 1,758,000 by 22 April. Let's
hope Columbia U is wrong.

On the other hand, if there are an additional 300K cases out there, that would
indicate the symptoms aren't bad enough for the folks to get 'confirmed'.

I'm tempted to test fate and get out there and catch it. I think catching it
now, before the hospitals are totally inundated, would be a good idea.

As Ed suggested on FB, it might be best if all of the health care
workers caught it and got it over with, now that they are not being
slammed with a million cases.

sobering study
 

On Sun, 22 Mar 2020 10:05:43 -0400, "Mr. Luddite"
wrote:

On 3/22/2020 10:00 AM, Adorable Deplorable wrote:
On Sun, 22 Mar 2020 09:01:50 -0400, "Mr. Luddite" wrote:

This morning I was reading some of the results from a study
done by Columbia University on the corvid-19 infection rates.

Highlights include:

1. The study concludes that there is actually 11 times the number
of people currently known to be carrying the virus. Based on
current known cases, that would indicate almost 300,000 people
in the USA, most who are carrying the virus but don't know it.

2. Based on the level of controls by fed and state governments
and the cooperation of the population to adhere to their
controls and recommendations, the study evaluated the
results and generated graphs of "no controls", "some controls"
and "severe controls". "Severe controls" becomes obvious as
the only means of beating this thing.

3. In any event, it has not peaked yet and won't until May or June
in the best case and mid summer in a more realistic case.

Not a particularly encouraging study. It also suggests that
if not brought under control medical facilities, especially
in the hardest hit areas of the country, may find themselves
in the position of choosing who gets treated and who dies.

Annoying to me is my awareness of some people, young and old,
who seem to have determined that the controls and recommendations
don't apply to them, thus putting themselves and people they
come in contact with at risk.

Given the rate of climb in the past few days, I've redone my curve. It now
results in about 283,000 confirmed US cases by around 22 April, unless something
really drastic happens.

Yes, it's getting scary quickly!
--

Freedom Isn't Free!



Run your curve again adding the estimated 300,000 people the Columbia
University study believes exists *right now*.

If the number is really 300,000+ and only 400 died, that is not a
horrible ratio. (0.133% or so).

sobering study
 

On Sun, 22 Mar 2020 23:48:38 -0400, wrote:

On Sun, 22 Mar 2020 10:37:42 -0400, Adorable Deplorable
wrote:

On Sun, 22 Mar 2020 10:05:43 -0400, "Mr. Luddite" wrote:

On 3/22/2020 10:00 AM, Adorable Deplorable wrote:
On Sun, 22 Mar 2020 09:01:50 -0400, "Mr. Luddite" wrote:

This morning I was reading some of the results from a study
done by Columbia University on the corvid-19 infection rates.

Highlights include:

1. The study concludes that there is actually 11 times the number
of people currently known to be carrying the virus. Based on
current known cases, that would indicate almost 300,000 people
in the USA, most who are carrying the virus but don't know it.

2. Based on the level of controls by fed and state governments
and the cooperation of the population to adhere to their
controls and recommendations, the study evaluated the
results and generated graphs of "no controls", "some controls"
and "severe controls". "Severe controls" becomes obvious as
the only means of beating this thing.

3. In any event, it has not peaked yet and won't until May or June
in the best case and mid summer in a more realistic case.

Not a particularly encouraging study. It also suggests that
if not brought under control medical facilities, especially
in the hardest hit areas of the country, may find themselves
in the position of choosing who gets treated and who dies.

Annoying to me is my awareness of some people, young and old,
who seem to have determined that the controls and recommendations
don't apply to them, thus putting themselves and people they
come in contact with at risk.

Given the rate of climb in the past few days, I've redone my curve. It now
results in about 283,000 confirmed US cases by around 22 April, unless something
really drastic happens.

Yes, it's getting scary quickly!
--

Freedom Isn't Free!



Run your curve again adding the estimated 300,000 people the Columbia
University study believes exists *right now*.

That's very scary. Mycurve is based on a start of 26663 confirmed cases. Adding
300,000 to that would give an estimate of around 1,758,000 by 22 April. Let's
hope Columbia U is wrong.

On the other hand, if there are an additional 300K cases out there, that would
indicate the symptoms aren't bad enough for the folks to get 'confirmed'.

I'm tempted to test fate and get out there and catch it. I think catching it
now, before the hospitals are totally inundated, would be a good idea.

As Ed suggested on FB, it might be best if all of the health care
workers caught it and got it over with, now that they are not being
slammed with a million cases.

How come I didn't see Ed's post? Did he block me because my dog's prettier than
he is?
--

Freedom Isn't Free!

sobering study
 

On 3/22/2020 10:27 AM, Keyser Soze wrote:
On 3/22/20 11:21 AM, Mr. Luddite wrote:
On 3/22/2020 11:11 AM, Keyser Soze wrote:
On 3/22/20 11:06 AM, Mr. Luddite wrote:
On 3/22/2020 10:17 AM, wrote:
On Sun, 22 Mar 2020 10:05:43 -0400, "Mr. Luddite"
wrote:

On 3/22/2020 10:00 AM, Adorable Deplorable wrote:
On Sun, 22 Mar 2020 09:01:50 -0400, "Mr. Luddite"
wrote:

This morning I was reading some of the results from a study
done by Columbia University on the corvid-19 infection rates.

Highlights include:

1. The study concludes that there is actually 11 times the number
Â*Â*Â*Â* of people currently known to be carrying the virus.Â* Based on
Â*Â*Â*Â* current known cases, that would indicate almost 300,000 people
Â*Â*Â*Â* in the USA, most who are carrying the virus but don't know it.

2. Based on the level of controls by fed and state governments
Â*Â*Â*Â* and the cooperation of the population to adhere to their
Â*Â*Â*Â* controls and recommendations, the study evaluated the
Â*Â*Â*Â* results and generated graphs of "no controls", "some controls"
Â*Â*Â*Â* and "severe controls".Â* "Severe controls" becomes obvious as
Â*Â*Â*Â* the only means of beating this thing.

3. In any event, it has not peaked yet and won't until May or June
Â*Â*Â*Â* in the best case and mid summer in a more realistic case.

Not a particularly encouraging study.Â* It also suggests that
if not brought under control medical facilities, especially
in the hardest hit areas of the country, may find themselves
in the position of choosing who gets treated and who dies.

Annoying to me is my awareness of some people, young and old,
who seem to have determined that the controls and recommendations
don't apply to them, thus putting themselves and people they
come in contact with at risk.

Given the rate of climb in the past few days, I've redone my
curve. It now
results in about 283,000 confirmed US cases by around 22 April,
unless something
really drastic happens.

Yes, it's getting scary quickly!
--

Freedom Isn't Free!



Run your curve again adding the estimated 300,000 people the Columbia
University study believes exists *right now*.

===

What was their methodology for estimating the number of unreported
cases?



Wayne, the study was reported in the New York Times today.Â* You can
read more about it, the methodology, etc, at the link below.

One thing I missed ... and this is even more scary ...Â* the study
suggests:

"Even if the country cut its rate of transmission in half — a tall
order — some 650,000 people might become infected in the next two
months."

Link:

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/03/20/us/coronavirus-model-us-outbreak.html?&te=1&nl=morning-briefing&emc=edit_nn_20200322&campaign_id=9&instan ce_id=16976&segment_id=22540&user_id=dd7f8c99a5f94 a70971937d998bca33d&regi_id=116446437_nn_20200322


or:

https://tinyurl.com/wdvsqhb


Not to worry...your Trump said the warmer weather will take care of
Covoid-19. Right?


No.Â* He didn't.

From Marke****ch:

Trump told supporters at a rally in New Hampshire in early March that
the virus will be gone by April, claiming that when temperatures rise,
“the virus� will “miraculously� go away. Chinese President Xi Jinping
has said the same, Trump said. The latest deadly coronavirus, eventually
referenced as COVID-19, first emerged in China at the end of last year.

Patient zero contacted the disease Nov 17.
https://www.google.com/search?client...ed+in+November

Mikek

sobering study
 

On Mon, 23 Mar 2020 07:50:42 -0400, Adorable Deplorable
wrote:

On Sun, 22 Mar 2020 23:48:38 -0400, wrote:

On Sun, 22 Mar 2020 10:37:42 -0400, Adorable Deplorable
wrote:

On Sun, 22 Mar 2020 10:05:43 -0400, "Mr. Luddite" wrote:

On 3/22/2020 10:00 AM, Adorable Deplorable wrote:
On Sun, 22 Mar 2020 09:01:50 -0400, "Mr. Luddite" wrote:

This morning I was reading some of the results from a study
done by Columbia University on the corvid-19 infection rates.

Highlights include:

1. The study concludes that there is actually 11 times the number
of people currently known to be carrying the virus. Based on
current known cases, that would indicate almost 300,000 people
in the USA, most who are carrying the virus but don't know it.

2. Based on the level of controls by fed and state governments
and the cooperation of the population to adhere to their
controls and recommendations, the study evaluated the
results and generated graphs of "no controls", "some controls"
and "severe controls". "Severe controls" becomes obvious as
the only means of beating this thing.

3. In any event, it has not peaked yet and won't until May or June
in the best case and mid summer in a more realistic case.

Not a particularly encouraging study. It also suggests that
if not brought under control medical facilities, especially
in the hardest hit areas of the country, may find themselves
in the position of choosing who gets treated and who dies.

Annoying to me is my awareness of some people, young and old,
who seem to have determined that the controls and recommendations
don't apply to them, thus putting themselves and people they
come in contact with at risk.

Given the rate of climb in the past few days, I've redone my curve. It now
results in about 283,000 confirmed US cases by around 22 April, unless something
really drastic happens.

Yes, it's getting scary quickly!
--

Freedom Isn't Free!



Run your curve again adding the estimated 300,000 people the Columbia
University study believes exists *right now*.

That's very scary. Mycurve is based on a start of 26663 confirmed cases. Adding
300,000 to that would give an estimate of around 1,758,000 by 22 April. Let's
hope Columbia U is wrong.

On the other hand, if there are an additional 300K cases out there, that would
indicate the symptoms aren't bad enough for the folks to get 'confirmed'.

I'm tempted to test fate and get out there and catch it. I think catching it
now, before the hospitals are totally inundated, would be a good idea.

As Ed suggested on FB, it might be best if all of the health care
workers caught it and got it over with, now that they are not being
slammed with a million cases.

How come I didn't see Ed's post? Did he block me because my dog's prettier than
he is?

Dunno it was on his wall.

sobering study
 

On Mon, 23 Mar 2020 12:52:46 -0400, wrote:

On Mon, 23 Mar 2020 07:50:42 -0400, Adorable Deplorable
wrote:

On Sun, 22 Mar 2020 23:48:38 -0400, wrote:

On Sun, 22 Mar 2020 10:37:42 -0400, Adorable Deplorable
wrote:

On Sun, 22 Mar 2020 10:05:43 -0400, "Mr. Luddite" wrote:

On 3/22/2020 10:00 AM, Adorable Deplorable wrote:
On Sun, 22 Mar 2020 09:01:50 -0400, "Mr. Luddite" wrote:

This morning I was reading some of the results from a study
done by Columbia University on the corvid-19 infection rates.

Highlights include:

1. The study concludes that there is actually 11 times the number
of people currently known to be carrying the virus. Based on
current known cases, that would indicate almost 300,000 people
in the USA, most who are carrying the virus but don't know it.

2. Based on the level of controls by fed and state governments
and the cooperation of the population to adhere to their
controls and recommendations, the study evaluated the
results and generated graphs of "no controls", "some controls"
and "severe controls". "Severe controls" becomes obvious as
the only means of beating this thing.

3. In any event, it has not peaked yet and won't until May or June
in the best case and mid summer in a more realistic case.

Not a particularly encouraging study. It also suggests that
if not brought under control medical facilities, especially
in the hardest hit areas of the country, may find themselves
in the position of choosing who gets treated and who dies.

Annoying to me is my awareness of some people, young and old,
who seem to have determined that the controls and recommendations
don't apply to them, thus putting themselves and people they
come in contact with at risk.

Given the rate of climb in the past few days, I've redone my curve. It now
results in about 283,000 confirmed US cases by around 22 April, unless something
really drastic happens.

Yes, it's getting scary quickly!
--

Freedom Isn't Free!



Run your curve again adding the estimated 300,000 people the Columbia
University study believes exists *right now*.

That's very scary. Mycurve is based on a start of 26663 confirmed cases. Adding
300,000 to that would give an estimate of around 1,758,000 by 22 April. Let's
hope Columbia U is wrong.

On the other hand, if there are an additional 300K cases out there, that would
indicate the symptoms aren't bad enough for the folks to get 'confirmed'.

I'm tempted to test fate and get out there and catch it. I think catching it
now, before the hospitals are totally inundated, would be a good idea.

As Ed suggested on FB, it might be best if all of the health care
workers caught it and got it over with, now that they are not being
slammed with a million cases.

How come I didn't see Ed's post? Did he block me because my dog's prettier than
he is?

Dunno it was on his wall.

Found it! Comments left.
--

Freedom Isn't Free!