On Sun, 22 Mar 2020 11:06:56 -0400, "Mr. Luddite"
wrote:

On 3/22/2020 10:17 AM, wrote:
On Sun, 22 Mar 2020 10:05:43 -0400, "Mr. Luddite"
wrote:

On 3/22/2020 10:00 AM, Adorable Deplorable wrote:
On Sun, 22 Mar 2020 09:01:50 -0400, "Mr. Luddite" wrote:

This morning I was reading some of the results from a study
done by Columbia University on the corvid-19 infection rates.

Highlights include:

1. The study concludes that there is actually 11 times the number
of people currently known to be carrying the virus. Based on
current known cases, that would indicate almost 300,000 people
in the USA, most who are carrying the virus but don't know it.

2. Based on the level of controls by fed and state governments
and the cooperation of the population to adhere to their
controls and recommendations, the study evaluated the
results and generated graphs of "no controls", "some controls"
and "severe controls". "Severe controls" becomes obvious as
the only means of beating this thing.

3. In any event, it has not peaked yet and won't until May or June
in the best case and mid summer in a more realistic case.

Not a particularly encouraging study. It also suggests that
if not brought under control medical facilities, especially
in the hardest hit areas of the country, may find themselves
in the position of choosing who gets treated and who dies.

Annoying to me is my awareness of some people, young and old,
who seem to have determined that the controls and recommendations
don't apply to them, thus putting themselves and people they
come in contact with at risk.

Given the rate of climb in the past few days, I've redone my curve. It now
results in about 283,000 confirmed US cases by around 22 April, unless something
really drastic happens.

Yes, it's getting scary quickly!
--

Freedom Isn't Free!



Run your curve again adding the estimated 300,000 people the Columbia
University study believes exists *right now*.

===

What was their methodology for estimating the number of unreported
cases?



Wayne, the study was reported in the New York Times today. You can read
more about it, the methodology, etc, at the link below.

One thing I missed ... and this is even more scary ... the study
suggests:

"Even if the country cut its rate of transmission in half — a tall order
— some 650,000 people might become infected in the next two months."

Link:

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/03/20/us/coronavirus-model-us-outbreak.html?&te=1&nl=morning-briefing&emc=edit_nn_20200322&campaign_id=9&instan ce_id=16976&segment_id=22540&user_id=dd7f8c99a5f94 a70971937d998bca33d&regi_id=116446437_nn_20200322

or:

https://tinyurl.com/wdvsqhb

===

Thanks. As best I can tell they inferred the number of unreported
infections based on the rate of new infections spreading. Apparently
they validated their assumptions with statistical methods and peer
review. That's probably as good as it gets in the absence of wide
spread testing.


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