On 3/22/20 11:21 AM, Mr. Luddite wrote:
On 3/22/2020 11:11 AM, Keyser Soze wrote:
On 3/22/20 11:06 AM, Mr. Luddite wrote:
On 3/22/2020 10:17 AM, wrote:
On Sun, 22 Mar 2020 10:05:43 -0400, "Mr. Luddite"
wrote:
On 3/22/2020 10:00 AM, Adorable Deplorable wrote:
On Sun, 22 Mar 2020 09:01:50 -0400, "Mr. Luddite"
wrote:
This morning I was reading some of the results from a study
done by Columbia University on the corvid-19 infection rates.
Highlights include:
1. The study concludes that there is actually 11 times the number
**** of people currently known to be carrying the virus.* Based on
**** current known cases, that would indicate almost 300,000 people
**** in the USA, most who are carrying the virus but don't know it.
2. Based on the level of controls by fed and state governments
**** and the cooperation of the population to adhere to their
**** controls and recommendations, the study evaluated the
**** results and generated graphs of "no controls", "some controls"
**** and "severe controls".* "Severe controls" becomes obvious as
**** the only means of beating this thing.
3. In any event, it has not peaked yet and won't until May or June
**** in the best case and mid summer in a more realistic case.
Not a particularly encouraging study.* It also suggests that
if not brought under control medical facilities, especially
in the hardest hit areas of the country, may find themselves
in the position of choosing who gets treated and who dies.
Annoying to me is my awareness of some people, young and old,
who seem to have determined that the controls and recommendations
don't apply to them, thus putting themselves and people they
come in contact with at risk.
Given the rate of climb in the past few days, I've redone my
curve. It now
results in about 283,000 confirmed US cases by around 22 April,
unless something
really drastic happens.
Yes, it's getting scary quickly!
--
Freedom Isn't Free!
Run your curve again adding the estimated 300,000 people the Columbia
University study believes exists *right now*.
===
What was their methodology for estimating the number of unreported
cases?
Wayne, the study was reported in the New York Times today.* You can
read more about it, the methodology, etc, at the link below.
One thing I missed ... and this is even more scary ...* the study
suggests:
"Even if the country cut its rate of transmission in half — a tall
order — some 650,000 people might become infected in the next two
months."
Link:
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/03/20/us/coronavirus-model-us-outbreak.html?&te=1&nl=morning-briefing&emc=edit_nn_20200322&campaign_id=9&instan ce_id=16976&segment_id=22540&user_id=dd7f8c99a5f94 a70971937d998bca33d®i_id=116446437_nn_20200322
or:
https://tinyurl.com/wdvsqhb
Not to worry...your Trump said the warmer weather will take care of
Covoid-19. Right?
No.* He didn't.
From Marke****ch:
Trump told supporters at a rally in New Hampshire in early March that
the virus will be gone by April, claiming that when temperatures rise,
“the virus” will “miraculously” go away. Chinese President Xi Jinping
has said the same, Trump said. The latest deadly coronavirus, eventually
referenced as COVID-19, first emerged in China at the end of last year.
“The virus that we’re talking about having to do, a lot of people think
that goes away in April, with the heat, as the heat comes in, typically
that will go away in April,” Trump repeated later to a group of governors.