Mr. Luddite wrote:
On 1/12/2018 8:12 PM, wrote:
On Fri, 12 Jan 2018 17:32:35 -0500, "Mr. Luddite"
wrote:

On 1/12/2018 4:30 PM, wrote:
On Fri, 12 Jan 2018 12:32:02 -0500, "Mr. Luddite"
wrote:

On 1/12/2018 10:59 AM, wrote:
On Fri, 12 Jan 2018 10:00:11 -0500, Keyser Soze
wrote:

On 1/12/18 9:46 AM, amdx wrote:
On 1/8/2018 6:29 PM, Alex wrote:
wrote:
On Sat, 6 Jan 2018 22:35:27 -0500, Alex wrote:

amdx wrote:
and hey, how about the stock market?

I should do well under the new tax law, looks like I'll qualify for
the pass thru, knocking off 20% of my business income from being
taxable.
and a Standard deduction of $24k, what's not to like.
Â* I'll will lose two child deductions, but I would have lost one
anyone, she's getting married.

Â*Â*Â*Â*Â*Â*Â*Â*Â*Â*Â*Â*Â*Â*Â*Â*Â*Â*Â*Â*Â*Â*Â*Â*Â* Â*Â* Mikek
My 401K hit seven figures shortly after President Trump was elected and
has grown even more.Â* I'll have to see how it affects my paycheck.Â* The
new rates won't be active until next month.Â* If this continues I might
be able to retire at 55!


===

I've been moving into more conservative, and more diversified assets
in anticipation of a market pull back.Â* I'd suggest keeping your job a
bit longer if you enjoy what you're doing.Â* Inflation becomes a real
risk once you stop working.

---
This email has been checked for viruses by AVG.
http://www.avg.com

I'm realistically looking to retire by 60.Â* I've got a few IRA's and
some non-retirement investments, too.Â* I don't want to have to watch
the market all the time to feel comfortable.

Investing new money is challenging right now with the market so high.
I'm looking more and more at real estate.

Many people do well with real estate, but if you buy rentals you are
buying a job. 20 some years ago I had 5 rentals, I did well with them,
but when I moved out of state I sold them all, and at 62 I have zero
interest being on call to do repairs or maintenance.
Â*Â*Â*Â*Â*Â*Â*Â*Â*Â*Â*Â*Â*Â*Â*Â*Â*Â*Â*Â*Â*Â*Â*Â*Â* Â*Â*Â* Mikek


When the market "corrects" and tumbles, what are you going to do...go
back to selling shrimp?

Temporary glitches in the market are dealt with by using
diversification.
So far it has always recovered. If there was an actual crash that we
didn't recover from, selling shrimp would not be an option either
because the dollar would go down with it along with the whole world
economy.
That kind of thing will usually result in a massive war and these days
it will be the kind of war that ends all of that global warming
bull****. We will scrub those few billion of the population we need to
and be in a nuclear winter for a decade or two.



My, my. You certainly have a cheery outlook of the future.


I am just responding to the kind of crash Harry was alluding to.
It is not impossible tho. How long can we keep borrowing more than we
make (as a society)?
The fact remains that we have been borrowing our way to prosperity
since the Reagan administration with no real plan to pay it back. One
of these days that debt will overwhelm our ability to even pay the
interest. Then what? That is the long range problem.
In the short term, it will not take much to crash the stock market and
depress the economy.
A coup in the executive branch would do it as we saw in 74, a crash
the middle class never recovered from. That is also what led to the
"borrow and spend prosperity".



I get a kick out of the economic experts giving their predictions. The
gold/precious metals people say we are about to experience a major stock
market crash that will make 2008's real estate bubble burst look like a
minor hic-up. Then there's the pro-market guys (heard one today) who
are predicting a long term (3 to 5 year) run up of stock values.


I could argue either side of that. You do have a ****load of Gen Exers
and Millennials chucking money into the market with their 401ks and
that tends to support the bull but I still have a hard time ignoring
the debt problem and the lack of real growth.
We already borrow all of the money to run the government beyond
entitlements and interest on the debt. What happens when revenue does
not even cover that? The Fed already monetized $4.5T of our debt by
buying unsold bonds. When will the world figure out our debt is a bad
bet and stop renewing their bonds? Things will happen fast then.
I know US "paper" is supposed to be the safest thing in the world but
so was real estate ... until it wasn't.
I was the one on these yacking boards who said real estate was
cruising for a fall but I was 10-15 years early. I did not believe the
elasticity of the financial markets to absorb that much bad debt. When
it finally popped it was much worse than I predicted tho because it
brought down the banking industry with it, not just the real estate
market. I did not really understand the effect of the derivatives.
This situation is worse than that.
If the federal debt bubble pops the 30s will look like a bump in the
road. It could take down "money" as we know it.



Debt as it relates to global economics is a transparent, phony concept
period. There's no underlying standard or base to it. Debt is only
real to common people tied to the banking systems via mortgages, credit
cards or loans and the penalties for defaulting are governed only within
the rules of the banking systems.

Global (national) debt doesn't mean a thing. To be concerned with it
assumes you think a "note" is going to be called and it is going to be
repaid someday by someone. It isn't. It's factored into global trade
and international finance. To think it is like a bank loan that has a
maturity date tied to it isn't real. A maturity date doesn't exist.
If there aren't enough revenues to pay the phony interest, the
government just prints more money.






Debt may not cause a downfall of the country, but it may cause
hyperinflation, and really bad times for anybody below the 1-3%. Look at
Carter presidency. 18% savings account interest, but hard to get a loan
and that is going to cost 23%,etc.

On 1/13/2018 3:18 PM, Bill wrote:
Mr. Luddite wrote:
On 1/12/2018 8:12 PM, wrote:
On Fri, 12 Jan 2018 17:32:35 -0500, "Mr. Luddite"
wrote:

On 1/12/2018 4:30 PM, wrote:
On Fri, 12 Jan 2018 12:32:02 -0500, "Mr. Luddite"
wrote:

On 1/12/2018 10:59 AM, wrote:
On Fri, 12 Jan 2018 10:00:11 -0500, Keyser Soze
wrote:

On 1/12/18 9:46 AM, amdx wrote:
On 1/8/2018 6:29 PM, Alex wrote:
wrote:
On Sat, 6 Jan 2018 22:35:27 -0500, Alex wrote:

amdx wrote:
and hey, how about the stock market?

I should do well under the new tax law, looks like I'll qualify for
the pass thru, knocking off 20% of my business income from being
taxable.
and a Standard deduction of $24k, what's not to like.
Â* I'll will lose two child deductions, but I would have lost one
anyone, she's getting married.

Â*Â*Â*Â*Â*Â*Â*Â*Â*Â*Â*Â*Â*Â*Â*Â*Â*Â*Â*Â*Â*Â*Â*Â*Â* Â*Â* Mikek
My 401K hit seven figures shortly after President Trump was elected and
has grown even more.Â* I'll have to see how it affects my paycheck.Â* The
new rates won't be active until next month.Â* If this continues I might
be able to retire at 55!


===

I've been moving into more conservative, and more diversified assets
in anticipation of a market pull back.Â* I'd suggest keeping your job a
bit longer if you enjoy what you're doing.Â* Inflation becomes a real
risk once you stop working.

---
This email has been checked for viruses by AVG.
http://www.avg.com

I'm realistically looking to retire by 60.Â* I've got a few IRA's and
some non-retirement investments, too.Â* I don't want to have to watch
the market all the time to feel comfortable.

Investing new money is challenging right now with the market so high.
I'm looking more and more at real estate.

Many people do well with real estate, but if you buy rentals you are
buying a job. 20 some years ago I had 5 rentals, I did well with them,
but when I moved out of state I sold them all, and at 62 I have zero
interest being on call to do repairs or maintenance.
Â*Â*Â*Â*Â*Â*Â*Â*Â*Â*Â*Â*Â*Â*Â*Â*Â*Â*Â*Â*Â*Â*Â*Â*Â* Â*Â*Â* Mikek


When the market "corrects" and tumbles, what are you going to do...go
back to selling shrimp?

Temporary glitches in the market are dealt with by using
diversification.
So far it has always recovered. If there was an actual crash that we
didn't recover from, selling shrimp would not be an option either
because the dollar would go down with it along with the whole world
economy.
That kind of thing will usually result in a massive war and these days
it will be the kind of war that ends all of that global warming
bull****. We will scrub those few billion of the population we need to
and be in a nuclear winter for a decade or two.



My, my. You certainly have a cheery outlook of the future.


I am just responding to the kind of crash Harry was alluding to.
It is not impossible tho. How long can we keep borrowing more than we
make (as a society)?
The fact remains that we have been borrowing our way to prosperity
since the Reagan administration with no real plan to pay it back. One
of these days that debt will overwhelm our ability to even pay the
interest. Then what? That is the long range problem.
In the short term, it will not take much to crash the stock market and
depress the economy.
A coup in the executive branch would do it as we saw in 74, a crash
the middle class never recovered from. That is also what led to the
"borrow and spend prosperity".



I get a kick out of the economic experts giving their predictions. The
gold/precious metals people say we are about to experience a major stock
market crash that will make 2008's real estate bubble burst look like a
minor hic-up. Then there's the pro-market guys (heard one today) who
are predicting a long term (3 to 5 year) run up of stock values.


I could argue either side of that. You do have a ****load of Gen Exers
and Millennials chucking money into the market with their 401ks and
that tends to support the bull but I still have a hard time ignoring
the debt problem and the lack of real growth.
We already borrow all of the money to run the government beyond
entitlements and interest on the debt. What happens when revenue does
not even cover that? The Fed already monetized $4.5T of our debt by
buying unsold bonds. When will the world figure out our debt is a bad
bet and stop renewing their bonds? Things will happen fast then.
I know US "paper" is supposed to be the safest thing in the world but
so was real estate ... until it wasn't.
I was the one on these yacking boards who said real estate was
cruising for a fall but I was 10-15 years early. I did not believe the
elasticity of the financial markets to absorb that much bad debt. When
it finally popped it was much worse than I predicted tho because it
brought down the banking industry with it, not just the real estate
market. I did not really understand the effect of the derivatives.
This situation is worse than that.
If the federal debt bubble pops the 30s will look like a bump in the
road. It could take down "money" as we know it.



Debt as it relates to global economics is a transparent, phony concept
period. There's no underlying standard or base to it. Debt is only
real to common people tied to the banking systems via mortgages, credit
cards or loans and the penalties for defaulting are governed only within
the rules of the banking systems.

Global (national) debt doesn't mean a thing. To be concerned with it
assumes you think a "note" is going to be called and it is going to be
repaid someday by someone. It isn't. It's factored into global trade
and international finance. To think it is like a bank loan that has a
maturity date tied to it isn't real. A maturity date doesn't exist.
If there aren't enough revenues to pay the phony interest, the
government just prints more money.






Debt may not cause a downfall of the country, but it may cause
hyperinflation, and really bad times for anybody below the 1-3%. Look at
Carter presidency. 18% savings account interest, but hard to get a loan
and that is going to cost 23%,etc.

I was looking at 30 years mortgages then, 16.75%.
Ended up with a 3 year balloon at 13.75%.
Mikek

On Sat, 13 Jan 2018 14:51:58 -0500, "Mr. Luddite"
wrote:


On Sat, 13 Jan 2018 13:31:21 -0500, Keyser Soze
wrote:

On 1/13/18 1:13 PM, wrote:
On Sat, 13 Jan 2018 08:05:16 -0500, Keyser Soze
wrote:

On 1/12/18 11:05 PM, wrote:
On Fri, 12 Jan 2018 18:08:50 -0500, Keyser Soze
wrote:



I have no interest in the "1% of the world." I think the pursuit of
money for greed's sake is a sickness.

Guilty?
If what you have said is true you are the top 1% of the US and more
like the top .0001% of the world. I bet you never said "naa, that's
too much" and gave your employer some back.


My employer has been me since the mid-1970s.

Maybe in the eyes of the IRS but your employer is everyone who employs
your services. I bet you squeeze them as hard as you can.


Nope. In fact, often I have undercut the prices of competitors for
monthly services covered by a contract. I haven't raised my price for
researching and writing a 15-30 minute speech in 15 years, and I've
lowered my price for visual presentations because the software these
days is easier to use. A full-time staff speechwriter in DC for a major
league client can command an annual salary of $150,000-$200,000, so if I
can produce three or four speeches a year for a client, I'm a bargain.
Serious annual reports are higher because there is so much back and
forth, editing, lawyer and CPA demanded changes, et cetera. I don't mark
up out-of-pocket expenses, such as graphics artists, travel, et cetera.

I've had three clients under contract for 15-30 years.


Harry, you are operating in a semi-retired, something to do mode.
If you were actually running a business with employees with their costs
you couldn't be as generous with your time or fees.



===

Or spend as much time trolling the internet.

---
This email has been checked for viruses by AVG.
http://www.avg.com

On 1/13/2018 4:37 PM, amdx wrote:
On 1/13/2018 3:18 PM, Bill wrote:
Mr. Luddite wrote:
On 1/12/2018 8:12 PM, wrote:
On Fri, 12 Jan 2018 17:32:35 -0500, "Mr. Luddite"
wrote:

On 1/12/2018 4:30 PM, wrote:
On Fri, 12 Jan 2018 12:32:02 -0500, "Mr. Luddite"
wrote:

On 1/12/2018 10:59 AM, wrote:
On Fri, 12 Jan 2018 10:00:11 -0500, Keyser Soze
wrote:

On 1/12/18 9:46 AM, amdx wrote:
On 1/8/2018 6:29 PM, Alex wrote:
wrote:
On Sat, 6 Jan 2018 22:35:27 -0500, Alex
wrote:

amdx wrote:
and hey, how about the stock market?

I should do well under the new tax law, looks like I'll
qualify for
the pass thru, knocking off 20% of my business income from
being
taxable.
and a Standard deduction of $24k, what's not to like.
Â*Â* I'll will lose two child deductions, but I would have
lost one
anyone, she's getting married.

Â*Â*Â*Â*Â*Â*Â*Â*Â*Â*Â*Â*Â*Â*Â*Â*Â*Â*Â*Â*Â*Â*Â*Â*Â* Â*Â*Â* Mikek
My 401K hit seven figures shortly after President Trump was
elected and
has grown even more.Â* I'll have to see how it affects my
paycheck.Â* The
new rates won't be active until next month.Â* If this
continues I might
be able to retire at 55!


===

I've been moving into more conservative, and more
diversified assets
in anticipation of a market pull back.Â* I'd suggest keeping
your job a
bit longer if you enjoy what you're doing.Â* Inflation
becomes a real
risk once you stop working.

---
This email has been checked for viruses by AVG.
http://www.avg.com

I'm realistically looking to retire by 60.Â* I've got a few
IRA's and
some non-retirement investments, too.Â* I don't want to have
to watch
the market all the time to feel comfortable.

Investing new money is challenging right now with the market
so high.
I'm looking more and more at real estate.

Many people do well with real estate, but if you buy rentals
you are
buying a job. 20 some years ago I had 5 rentals, I did well
with them,
but when I moved out of state I sold them all, and at 62 I
have zero
interest being on call to do repairs or maintenance.
Â*Â*Â*Â*Â*Â*Â*Â*Â*Â*Â*Â*Â*Â*Â*Â*Â*Â*Â*Â*Â*Â*Â*Â*Â* Â*Â*Â*Â* Mikek


When the market "corrects" and tumbles, what are you going to
do...go
back to selling shrimp?

Temporary glitches in the market are dealt with by using
diversification.
So far it has always recovered. If there was an actual crash
that we
didn't recover from, selling shrimp would not be an option either
because the dollar would go down with it along with the whole world
economy.
That kind of thing will usually result in a massive war and
these days
it will be the kind of war that ends all of that global warming
bull****. We will scrub those few billion of the population we
need to
and be in a nuclear winter for a decade or two.



My, my.Â* You certainly have a cheery outlook of the future.


I am just responding to the kind of crash Harry was alluding to.
It is not impossible tho. How long can we keep borrowing more than we
make (as a society)?
The fact remains that we have been borrowing our way to prosperity
since the Reagan administration with no real plan to pay it back. One
of these days that debt will overwhelm our ability to even pay the
interest. Then what? That is the long range problem.
In the short term, it will not take much to crash the stock market
and
depress the economy.
A coup in the executive branch would do it as we saw in 74, a crash
the middle class never recovered from. That is also what led to the
"borrow and spend prosperity".



I get a kick out of the economic experts giving their predictions.
The
gold/precious metals people say we are about to experience a major
stock
market crash that will make 2008's real estate bubble burst look
like a
minor hic-up.Â* Then there's the pro-market guys (heard one today) who
are predicting a long term (3 to 5 year) run up of stock values.


I could argue either side of that. You do have a ****load of Gen Exers
and Millennials chucking money into the market with their 401ks and
that tends to support the bull but I still have a hard time ignoring
the debt problem and the lack of real growth.
We already borrow all of the money to run the government beyond
entitlements and interest on the debt. What happens when revenue does
not even cover that? The Fed already monetized $4.5T of our debt by
buyingÂ* unsold bonds. When will the world figure out our debt is a bad
bet and stop renewing their bonds? Things will happen fast then.
I know US "paper" is supposed to be the safest thing in the world but
so was real estate ... until it wasn't.
I was the one on these yacking boards who said real estate was
cruising for a fall but I was 10-15 years early. I did not believe the
elasticity of the financial markets to absorb that much bad debt. When
it finally popped it was much worse than I predicted tho because it
brought down the banking industry with it, not just the real estate
market. I did not really understand the effect of the derivatives.
This situation is worse than that.
If the federal debt bubble pops the 30s will look like a bump in the
road. It could take down "money" as we know it.



Debt as it relates to global economics is a transparent, phony concept
period.Â* There's no underlying standard or base to it.Â* Debt is only
real to common people tied to the banking systems via mortgages, credit
cards or loans and the penalties for defaulting are governed only within
the rules of the banking systems.

Global (national) debt doesn't mean a thing.Â* To be concerned with it
assumes you think a "note" is going to be called and it is going to be
repaid someday by someone.Â* It isn't.Â* It's factored into global trade
and international finance. To think it is like a bank loan that has a
maturity date tied to it isn't real.Â* A maturity date doesn't exist.
If there aren't enough revenues to pay the phony interest, the
government just prints more money.






Debt may not cause a downfall of the country, but it may cause
hyperinflation, and really bad times for anybody below the 1-3%.
Look at
Carter presidency.Â*Â* 18% savings account interest, but hard to get a loan
and that is going to cost 23%,etc.

Â*I was looking at 30 years mortgages then, 16.75%.
Ended up with a 3 year balloon at 13.75%.
Â*Â*Â*Â*Â*Â*Â*Â*Â*Â*Â*Â*Â*Â*Â*Â*Â*Â*Â*Â*Â*Â*Â*Â*Â* Â*Â* Mikek


My first mortgage was in 1982. Economy was still reeling from the
Carter years. Banks were offering 12.5% for a conventional, 30 year
mortgage. I decided to contact the VA and ended up with a VA backed
conventional mortgage at 11%. Seemed like a great deal at the time.
I remember they had "points" then also.

On Sat, 13 Jan 2018 16:54:46 -0500, "Mr. Luddite"
wrote:

My first mortgage was in 1982. Economy was still reeling from the
Carter years. Banks were offering 12.5% for a conventional, 30 year
mortgage. I decided to contact the VA and ended up with a VA backed
conventional mortgage at 11%. Seemed like a great deal at the time.
I remember they had "points" then also.

The points is what kept me away from a VA mortgage. I ended up with a
better rate bottom line from a bank.

On 1/13/2018 5:26 PM, wrote:
On Sat, 13 Jan 2018 16:54:46 -0500, "Mr. Luddite"
wrote:

My first mortgage was in 1982. Economy was still reeling from the
Carter years. Banks were offering 12.5% for a conventional, 30 year
mortgage. I decided to contact the VA and ended up with a VA backed
conventional mortgage at 11%. Seemed like a great deal at the time.
I remember they had "points" then also.

The points is what kept me away from a VA mortgage. I ended up with a
better rate bottom line from a bank.



I think all mortgages, VA or not, had points back then. They just
factored them into the loan.

On Sat, 13 Jan 2018 17:46:04 -0500, "Mr. Luddite"
wrote:

On 1/13/2018 5:26 PM, wrote:
On Sat, 13 Jan 2018 16:54:46 -0500, "Mr. Luddite"
wrote:

My first mortgage was in 1982. Economy was still reeling from the
Carter years. Banks were offering 12.5% for a conventional, 30 year
mortgage. I decided to contact the VA and ended up with a VA backed
conventional mortgage at 11%. Seemed like a great deal at the time.
I remember they had "points" then also.

The points is what kept me away from a VA mortgage. I ended up with a
better rate bottom line from a bank.



I think all mortgages, VA or not, had points back then. They just
factored them into the loan.

Not the one I got, it is what made the decision for me. It was 1/4%
higher than the VA (maybe hiding the points?) but no points. I planned
on paying it off early anyway so I didn't care as much about the rate.
The points were right now.

On Saturday, 13 January 2018 17:54:51 UTC-4, Mr. Luddite wrote:
On 1/13/2018 4:37 PM, amdx wrote:
On 1/13/2018 3:18 PM, Bill wrote:
Mr. Luddite wrote:
On 1/12/2018 8:12 PM, wrote:
On Fri, 12 Jan 2018 17:32:35 -0500, "Mr. Luddite"
wrote:

On 1/12/2018 4:30 PM, wrote:
On Fri, 12 Jan 2018 12:32:02 -0500, "Mr. Luddite"
wrote:

On 1/12/2018 10:59 AM, wrote:
On Fri, 12 Jan 2018 10:00:11 -0500, Keyser Soze
wrote:

On 1/12/18 9:46 AM, amdx wrote:
On 1/8/2018 6:29 PM, Alex wrote:
wrote:
On Sat, 6 Jan 2018 22:35:27 -0500, Alex
wrote:

amdx wrote:
and hey, how about the stock market?

I should do well under the new tax law, looks like I'll
qualify for
the pass thru, knocking off 20% of my business income from
being
taxable.
and a Standard deduction of $24k, what's not to like.
Â*Â* I'll will lose two child deductions, but I would have
lost one
anyone, she's getting married.

Â*Â*Â*Â*Â*Â*Â*Â*Â*Â*Â*Â*Â*Â*Â*Â*Â*Â*Â*Â*Â*Â*Â*Â*Â* Â*Â*Â* Mikek
My 401K hit seven figures shortly after President Trump was
elected and
has grown even more.Â* I'll have to see how it affects my
paycheck.Â* The
new rates won't be active until next month.Â* If this
continues I might
be able to retire at 55!


===

I've been moving into more conservative, and more
diversified assets
in anticipation of a market pull back.Â* I'd suggest keeping
your job a
bit longer if you enjoy what you're doing.Â* Inflation
becomes a real
risk once you stop working.

---
This email has been checked for viruses by AVG.
http://www.avg.com

I'm realistically looking to retire by 60.Â* I've got a few
IRA's and
some non-retirement investments, too.Â* I don't want to have
to watch
the market all the time to feel comfortable.

Investing new money is challenging right now with the market
so high.
I'm looking more and more at real estate.

Many people do well with real estate, but if you buy rentals
you are
buying a job. 20 some years ago I had 5 rentals, I did well
with them,
but when I moved out of state I sold them all, and at 62 I
have zero
interest being on call to do repairs or maintenance.
Â*Â*Â*Â*Â*Â*Â*Â*Â*Â*Â*Â*Â*Â*Â*Â*Â*Â*Â*Â*Â*Â*Â*Â*Â* Â*Â*Â*Â* Mikek


When the market "corrects" and tumbles, what are you going to
do...go
back to selling shrimp?

Temporary glitches in the market are dealt with by using
diversification.
So far it has always recovered. If there was an actual crash
that we
didn't recover from, selling shrimp would not be an option either
because the dollar would go down with it along with the whole world
economy.
That kind of thing will usually result in a massive war and
these days
it will be the kind of war that ends all of that global warming
bull****. We will scrub those few billion of the population we
need to
and be in a nuclear winter for a decade or two.



My, my.Â* You certainly have a cheery outlook of the future.


I am just responding to the kind of crash Harry was alluding to.
It is not impossible tho. How long can we keep borrowing more than we
make (as a society)?
The fact remains that we have been borrowing our way to prosperity
since the Reagan administration with no real plan to pay it back. One
of these days that debt will overwhelm our ability to even pay the
interest. Then what? That is the long range problem.
In the short term, it will not take much to crash the stock market
and
depress the economy.
A coup in the executive branch would do it as we saw in 74, a crash
the middle class never recovered from. That is also what led to the
"borrow and spend prosperity".



I get a kick out of the economic experts giving their predictions.
The
gold/precious metals people say we are about to experience a major
stock
market crash that will make 2008's real estate bubble burst look
like a
minor hic-up.Â* Then there's the pro-market guys (heard one today) who
are predicting a long term (3 to 5 year) run up of stock values.


I could argue either side of that. You do have a ****load of Gen Exers
and Millennials chucking money into the market with their 401ks and
that tends to support the bull but I still have a hard time ignoring
the debt problem and the lack of real growth.
We already borrow all of the money to run the government beyond
entitlements and interest on the debt. What happens when revenue does
not even cover that? The Fed already monetized $4.5T of our debt by
buyingÂ* unsold bonds. When will the world figure out our debt is a bad
bet and stop renewing their bonds? Things will happen fast then.
I know US "paper" is supposed to be the safest thing in the world but
so was real estate ... until it wasn't.
I was the one on these yacking boards who said real estate was
cruising for a fall but I was 10-15 years early. I did not believe the
elasticity of the financial markets to absorb that much bad debt. When
it finally popped it was much worse than I predicted tho because it
brought down the banking industry with it, not just the real estate
market. I did not really understand the effect of the derivatives.
This situation is worse than that.
If the federal debt bubble pops the 30s will look like a bump in the
road. It could take down "money" as we know it.



Debt as it relates to global economics is a transparent, phony concept
period.Â* There's no underlying standard or base to it.Â* Debt is only
real to common people tied to the banking systems via mortgages, credit
cards or loans and the penalties for defaulting are governed only within
the rules of the banking systems.

Global (national) debt doesn't mean a thing.Â* To be concerned with it
assumes you think a "note" is going to be called and it is going to be
repaid someday by someone.Â* It isn't.Â* It's factored into global trade
and international finance. To think it is like a bank loan that has a
maturity date tied to it isn't real.Â* A maturity date doesn't exist.
If there aren't enough revenues to pay the phony interest, the
government just prints more money.






Debt may not cause a downfall of the country, but it may cause
hyperinflation, and really bad times for anybody below the 1-3%.
Look at
Carter presidency.Â*Â* 18% savings account interest, but hard to get a loan
and that is going to cost 23%,etc.

Â*I was looking at 30 years mortgages then, 16.75%.
Ended up with a 3 year balloon at 13.75%.
Â*Â*Â*Â*Â*Â*Â*Â*Â*Â*Â*Â*Â*Â*Â*Â*Â*Â*Â*Â*Â*Â*Â*Â*Â* Â*Â* Mikek


My first mortgage was in 1982. Economy was still reeling from the
Carter years. Banks were offering 12.5% for a conventional, 30 year
mortgage. I decided to contact the VA and ended up with a VA backed
conventional mortgage at 11%. Seemed like a great deal at the time.
I remember they had "points" then also.

My firdt mortgage through the Nova Scotia Co-op Housing in 1974 was at 11%. Sure was glad about that when others were getting burned at 18-20%. Most I could borow was $23K. Not quite enough to build the Cedar cape Cod style house we wanted with cathedral ceilings of V joint tongue & groove pine held up on 4" x 12" exposed Douglas Fir beams that ran the length of the house on the main and 2nd story ceilings. Used the smooth fit 24" cedar shingles on the exterior walls that came in cardboard boxes from British Columbia. Everyone else in the program was building bland bungalows. Yes, I did have to go find another $9K from a 2nd mortgage to finish the house.

wrote:
On Fri, 12 Jan 2018 20:01:47 -0500, Alex wrote:


I'm looking at land. Residential lots in SW FL and some acreage in
Central FL. All would be held in an LLC but I need to find out if I
still need to carry liability insurance in case some idiot trespasses
and gets hurt.

I would never be a landlord for the reasons you mention.
Short answer, yes, unless you are willing to give up all the assets of
the LLC, usually the property.
I also would not count on a lawyer trying to penetrate the LLC and
coming after you personally. Even if it is unsuccessful, you may still
end up paying the lawyer tax.

If liability insurance is cheap enough, I would just buy it. I have a
personal umbrella policy for $2MM in case something got out of hand.

On Sat, 13 Jan 2018 17:46:04 -0500, "Mr. Luddite" wrote:

On 1/13/2018 5:26 PM, wrote:
On Sat, 13 Jan 2018 16:54:46 -0500, "Mr. Luddite"
wrote:

My first mortgage was in 1982. Economy was still reeling from the
Carter years. Banks were offering 12.5% for a conventional, 30 year
mortgage. I decided to contact the VA and ended up with a VA backed
conventional mortgage at 11%. Seemed like a great deal at the time.
I remember they had "points" then also.

The points is what kept me away from a VA mortgage. I ended up with a
better rate bottom line from a bank.



I think all mortgages, VA or not, had points back then. They just
factored them into the loan.

Agree.