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Harryk

wrote:
On Fri, 13 May 2011 15:03:23 -0400,
wrote:

wrote:
On Fri, 13 May 2011 13:21:39 -0400, wrote:

On Fri, 13 May 2011 12:58:50 -0400, wrote:

On Fri, 13 May 2011 12:29:20 -0400,
sent the following message
Ron Paul, the Texas congressman, declared his (third) candidacy for
president Friday on ‘Good Morning America.’ The ‘intellectual
grandfather’ of the tea party movement is a constitutional purist
who’s
as popular among his fervent followers as he is disliked by the GOP
establishment. He’s a dark horse pushing for an upset victory.
- - -
Ah, yes...Crazy Ron...about as much chance of winning the
presidency as,
say, Newt, the Donald, the Sara, the Michele, the Mitt, et cetera.
It seems everybody wants to get in on the movement to neuter BHO.
This is just making Obama stronger. If there is a split field he can
win with 40-45% (like Clinton in 92 with 43%)
I bet we see an establishment GOP candidate like Romney and a 3d party
running someone like Gary Johnson (NM).
Ron Paul will not be a serious candidate

I think the GOP has written this cycle off too, just like they did in
08.
They are still looking for a credible candidate.
They really need to find a Latino in 16 who can make the bankers happy
and still appeals to the redneck base. He will have to be able to
speak English without an accent and still be able to put commercials
on Univision/Telemundo in perfect Spanish.
The rednecks won't have a clue what he is telling them unless they can
figure out the SAP feature on their cable box.

Actually the more I think about this, it is more like 96. The GOP will
put up the next guy in line, not expecting him to win (again think
Romney) but much like Clinton, if you are a big money republican, you
won't do much better for yourself than the guy you have now.

Think about what the fat cats got out of Clinton in his second term.
They got tax cuts, an import treaty that was great for WalMart., a
booming stock market and shredded most of FDRs financial regulation.
They would not have gotten that out of Dole, Too many democrats would
fight it.
The fat cats are thrilled with Obama.
So far Obama has restored their tax cuts, cut the FICA tax, continued
the Bush bailout, kept the lucrative wars going, started a new war,
passed a financial regulation bill that didn't really regulate much
(we still have too big to fail) and passed health reform that will
make the health care industry a lot more money.

Why would they ever want to see him go?

The demographic changes coming in this country do not favor the
Republicans.

That really depends on who the republicans want to be in 2016. It is
interesting to me that Obama is a lot more vulnerable from the left
than he is from the right but those people are committed to vote
democratic, no matter how badly they get screwed and lied to.
I do not see any real primary challenge from the left this time.
That is one reason I think the GOP is ducking this year. They are
hoping the 2016 will end up being a food fight on the left that leaves
room for a centrist candidate with a little broader appeal than they
get with the white guys they have been running.
I do believe that by then the days of denial about the debt and
deficit will be over and that will be the main issue. I am just not
sure what the magic bullet will be to fix a 2 trillion dollar problem
and I bet the deficit will be that big if we keep kicking this can
down the road. Our current $420 billion dollar interest payment could
easily be well over a trillion by then. That would be over $3000 for
every man woman and child in the country

Well, I don't see the GOP nominating a "centrist" candidate, unless we
totally redefine centrist. The party is in the hands of those who
dislike blacks, latinos, gays, and non-christians, with an overlay of
birthers and teaparty types who, forgive me, are pretty much bat**** crazy.

The GOP won't even have "defense" to fall back upon, since it was under
the Obama administration that we did what the Republican administration
could not do...catch Osama.

Add in the GOP proposal to dump medicare...

What does that all add up to? Pretty much the end of GOP aspirations for
the White House for a long time to come, and possible loss of the U.S.
House in 2012. But that is a long shot.

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