"Jere Lull" wrote in message
news:2008100619140616807-jerelull@maccom...
On 2008-10-06 06:37:49 -0400, "Roger Long" said:

"Wayne.B" wrote

Yes but there were, and still are, some risks:

I had dinner last night with the research vessel captain & mate who have
about 50 years experience in the waters of Chesapeake Bay and offshore
around the capes. I told them what S&L are up to and they said "They've
got more courage than we do. I hope they don't make a habit of it."

I'm reminded of the saying that airplane pilots have:

"There are old pilots, and there are bold pilots, but there are no old
bold pilots."


The much discussed corollary to that is that taking weather risks and
getting away with it tends to affect future judgement. They pulled this
off but I too hope they don't make a habit of it. If someone with years
of experience had done it, I would be thinking, "Good weather call." but
it looks different for a second offshore passage.

As one who counseled them that Hattaras could blow up unpredictably in any
given hour, particularly this time of year, I have to say it seems they're
taking appropriate actions and precautions, are using every available
input.

They're staying enough clear that they could heave to for many hours, seem
to think it might be a nice change. They motor-sailed for 50+ hours to
take advantage of the existing conditions vs what was predicted to be on
the horizon. They're now obviously heading towards Charleston to ride out
expected nastiness -- and probably to take on a bit more fuel.

They aren't real sailors or they wouldn't rely on their diesel so much. They
left when they should have known they would have to do a lot of motor
sailing because of the light winds mostly from astern. Plus, they're bucking
a Gulf Stream current whether they know it or not. I warned them they should
have gone the Bermuda route but, noooooooo.

Their priorities were to get to Miami to meet some friends there. So they
compromised on their ability to sail by leaving in light wind conditions.
Real sailors put sailing over meeting friends on a schedule and would have
left when a nor'wester was in the offing and rode the damned thing all the
way to mid-Florida. Winds from the northwest, even when strong, since
they're blowing offshore don't get a chance to heap up the waters very much.
Staying close inshore under those conditions makes for a very fast passage
with no need to ever run a stupid engine.

Wilbur Hubbard

On Mon, 6 Oct 2008 19:27:31 -0400, "Wilbur Hubbard"
wrote:

I warned them they should
have gone the Bermuda route but, noooooooo.

That's fine if you're going to the islands but I don't know anyone who
goes to Florida that way.

"Wayne.B" wrote in message
...
On Mon, 6 Oct 2008 19:27:31 -0400, "Wilbur Hubbard"
wrote:

I warned them they should
have gone the Bermuda route but, noooooooo.

That's fine if you're going to the islands but I don't know anyone who
goes to Florida that way.


True enough but from Miami they plan to go to the Bahamas and the down
island if I recall correctly. They've been to Miami already so why go again
other than to meet with those friends them mentioned? Or, perhaps they are
afraid to go off soundings. From their route they were off soundings only
once. And they immediately turned tail and backtracked until they got back
onto the continental shelf. They need to overcome their psychological
dependence on land.

Wilbur Hubbard

"Jere Lull" wrote

As one who counseled them that Hattaras could blow up unpredictably in any
given hour, particularly this time of year, I have to say it seems they're
taking appropriate actions and precautions, are using every available
input.


I'll agree that they have done it well, this time. As long as it doesn't
lead them into thinking they can push their luck a little farther next time,
and a little farther the next time it works out, they'll be fine.

--
Roger Long

On 2008-10-06 21:40:49 -0400, "Roger Long" said:

"Jere Lull" wrote

As one who counseled them that Hattaras could blow up unpredictably in
any given hour, particularly this time of year, I have to say it seems
they're taking appropriate actions and precautions, are using every
available input.


I'll agree that they have done it well, this time. As long as it
doesn't lead them into thinking they can push their luck a little
farther next time, and a little farther the next time it works out,
they'll be fine.

Urmmm, isn't that how we all broaden our horizons? A little the first
time, bit more next, etc.?

I'll agree that their first steps are larger than mine, but within the
framework of the passage-making they're doing, they're doing it with
more awareness of particularly the weather than most delivery crews
have.

Because of the time-bind they're in, this leg of their journey is more
a delivery than cruising, but they ARE ducking out of the weather.

As I type, they just entered Charleston Harbor, probably passed Fort
Sumter just about now. It really is kewl to flip the satellite view on
at times such as this.

--
Jere Lull
Xan-à-Deux -- Tanzer 28 #4 out of Tolchester, MD
Xan's pages: http://web.mac.com/jerelull/iWeb/Xan/
Our BVI trips & tips: http://homepage.mac.com/jerelull/BVI/

Jere Lull wrote:

As I type, they just entered Charleston Harbor, probably passed Fort
Sumter just about now. It really is kewl to flip the satellite view on
at times such as this.

Ain't that the truth? Think they're headed for the municipal marina?

Cheers
Martin

On Tue, 07 Oct 2008 04:16:16 GMT, Jere Lull wrote:

I'll agree that they have done it well, this time. As long as it
doesn't lead them into thinking they can push their luck a little
farther next time, and a little farther the next time it works out,
they'll be fine.

Urmmm, isn't that how we all broaden our horizons? A little the first
time, bit more next, etc.?

When my kids were teenagers learning how to drive, I used to tell them
that one of the key things about becoming a safe driver is to live
through your first one or two accidents. Until you've been "caught
out" a few times the same thing may apply to boating.

On 2008-10-07 00:20:33 -0400, Marty said:

Jere Lull wrote:

As I type, they just entered Charleston Harbor, probably passed Fort
Sumter just about now. It really is kewl to flip the satellite view on
at times such as this.

Ain't that the truth? Think they're headed for the municipal marina?

Well, they seemed to tie up to a dock about 1:40 and haven't moved
(appreciably) since.
--
Jere Lull
Xan-à-Deux -- Tanzer 28 #4 out of Tolchester, MD
Xan's pages: http://web.mac.com/jerelull/iWeb/Xan/
Our BVI trips & tips: http://homepage.mac.com/jerelull/BVI/

"Jere Lull" wrote

Urmmm, isn't that how we all broaden our horizons? A little the first
time, bit more next, etc.?

This is an issue I gave a lot of thought to during my flying days when
people I knew died more frequently than in boating and I was very interested
in the human factors because it was clear that they were the primary
determinent of longevity.

There is a very subtle distinction between developing experience and
increasing proficiency and luck. The house odds never change. While
increasing competence lets you safely deal with more challenging situations,
it's easy to start thinking that this effects the latter. Its killed many
pilots as well as sailors.

I personally think S&L are doing very well and had a good strategy for this
ordinarily risky passage. I don't expect them to get cocky but it's
something to think about in general terms. I"m sure they are still making a
lot of mistakes but I'm still making them after four decades of sailing.
They are making good progress on the basics. I saw them right after their
first long passage and they were remarkably perky. They have found a watch
keeping and energy conservation routine that works.

They have the makings of solidly competent cruisers despite (or perhaps
because of) their well publisized early mistakes.

--
Roger Long

On Sun, 05 Oct 2008 14:23:08 -0400, Marty wrote:

Well I found a nice little on-line Haversine (the function to compute
the Great Circle distance between two points) calculator.

I have had good luck with a pair of deviders.

Casady