"Jere Lull" wrote

Urmmm, isn't that how we all broaden our horizons? A little the first
time, bit more next, etc.?

This is an issue I gave a lot of thought to during my flying days when
people I knew died more frequently than in boating and I was very interested
in the human factors because it was clear that they were the primary
determinent of longevity.

There is a very subtle distinction between developing experience and
increasing proficiency and luck. The house odds never change. While
increasing competence lets you safely deal with more challenging situations,
it's easy to start thinking that this effects the latter. Its killed many
pilots as well as sailors.

I personally think S&L are doing very well and had a good strategy for this
ordinarily risky passage. I don't expect them to get cocky but it's
something to think about in general terms. I"m sure they are still making a
lot of mistakes but I'm still making them after four decades of sailing.
They are making good progress on the basics. I saw them right after their
first long passage and they were remarkably perky. They have found a watch
keeping and energy conservation routine that works.

They have the makings of solidly competent cruisers despite (or perhaps
because of) their well publisized early mistakes.

--
Roger Long