Wayne.B wrote:
On Sun, 05 Oct 2008 18:54:41 -0400, Marty wrote:

I put Skip's numbers in for a 12 hour period and got 60nm, not
to bad at all, 120 mile days are nothing to be sneered at.

I agree. It's a big heavy cruising boat that is not exactly over
rigged, and they have been in light to moderate winds for the most
part.


I'm pulling for Skip, a few thought he was nuts for attempting this in
one leg and warned of dire consequences rounding Cape Hatteras. So far
it looks great, except for a chance of getting rained on going into Miami.

Cheers
Martin

On Sun, 05 Oct 2008 22:02:17 -0400, Marty wrote:

I'm pulling for Skip, a few thought he was nuts for attempting this in
one leg and warned of dire consequences rounding Cape Hatteras. So far
it looks great, except for a chance of getting rained on going into Miami.

Yes but there were, and still are, some risks:

The Gulf Stream off Cape Hatteras is notorious for unforecasted
squalls and steep squirrelly seas due to the shoaling water, strong
currents and convergant weather systems. They lucked out on that
one. I know quite a few very experienced, knowledgeable people who
will not go outside Hatteras if they have a choice. I also know a few
who swear they will never do it again. One is a friend of mine who
had a 56 ft ketch and broke a rudder out there in a storm some years
ago. He had to be towed several hundred miles into Norfolk in very
gnarly conditions.

The next issue in my mind is that they are pushing the limits of
mental and physical endurance after many days of round the clock
sailing and watch standing. Lots of other people have done that sort
of thing successfully, but they are not kids anymore, and the boat is
big enough to be a handful if conditions deteriorate or gear starts
failing.

Last but not least they are heading into southern waters with another
3 weeks to go on the hurricane season. Fortunately storm formation
is in a lull and will quite likely continue that way with any luck.

I'm reminded of the saying that airplane pilots have:

"There are old pilots, and there are bold pilots, but there are no old
bold pilots."

"Wayne.B" wrote

Yes but there were, and still are, some risks:

I had dinner last night with the research vessel captain & mate who have
about 50 years experience in the
waters of Chesapeak Bay and offshore around the capes. I told them what S&L
are up to and they said "They've got more courage than we do. I hope they
don't make a habit of it."

I'm reminded of the saying that airplane pilots have:

"There are old pilots, and there are bold pilots, but there are no old
bold pilots."


The much discussed corollary to that is that taking weather risks and
getting away with it tends to effect future judgement. They pulled this off
but I too hope they don't make a habit of it. If someone with years of
experience had done it, I would be thinking, "Good weather call." but it
looks different for a second offshore passage.

Roger

Roger Long wrote:
"Wayne.B" wrote

Yes but there were, and still are, some risks:

I had dinner last night with the research vessel captain & mate who have
about 50 years experience in the
waters of Chesapeak Bay and offshore around the capes. I told them what S&L
are up to and they said "They've got more courage than we do. I hope they
don't make a habit of it."

I'm reminded of the saying that airplane pilots have:

"There are old pilots, and there are bold pilots, but there are no old
bold pilots."


The much discussed corollary to that is that taking weather risks and
getting away with it tends to effect future judgement. They pulled this off
but I too hope they don't make a habit of it. If someone with years of
experience had done it, I would be thinking, "Good weather call." but it
looks different for a second offshore passage.

Roger




Don't forget they are using a professional weather router to guide
and advise them.
Gordon

Gordon wrote:
Roger Long wrote:
"Wayne.B" wrote

Yes but there were, and still are, some risks:

I had dinner last night with the research vessel captain & mate who
have about 50 years experience in the
waters of Chesapeak Bay and offshore around the capes. I told them
what S&L are up to and they said "They've got more courage than we
do. I hope they don't make a habit of it."

I'm reminded of the saying that airplane pilots have:

"There are old pilots, and there are bold pilots, but there are no old
bold pilots."


The much discussed corollary to that is that taking weather risks and
getting away with it tends to effect future judgement. They pulled
this off but I too hope they don't make a habit of it. If someone
with years of experience had done it, I would be thinking, "Good
weather call." but it looks different for a second offshore passage.

Roger




Don't forget they are using a professional weather router to guide and
advise them.
Gordon

Well, it looks like they are going to duck into Charleston and wait out
the nasty stuff slated for Miami. Maybe they/re getting tired?

Cheers
Martin

On Mon, 6 Oct 2008 06:37:49 -0400, "Roger Long"
wrote:

If someone with years of
experience had done it, I would be thinking, "Good weather call." but it
looks different for a second offshore passage.

There are places along the beaches of the Outer Banks where you can
look out from the sand and see the wreakage of rather large boats that
got it wrong for one reason or another.

On Mon, 06 Oct 2008 12:00:58 -0400, Martin Baxter
wrote:

Well, it looks like they are going to duck into Charleston and wait out
the nasty stuff slated for Miami. Maybe they/re getting tired?

That, and their cat (Portia) got sea sick and peed all over
everything.

Cute cat, bad behavior. It would be a good call though. Four
straight days of good weather is about all you can hope for this time
of year.

On Mon, 06 Oct 2008 12:28:37 -0400, Wayne.B
wrote:

On Mon, 06 Oct 2008 12:00:58 -0400, Martin Baxter
wrote:

Well, it looks like they are going to duck into Charleston and wait out
the nasty stuff slated for Miami. Maybe they/re getting tired?

That, and their cat (Portia) got sea sick and peed all over
everything.

I would do the same with those two.



Cute cat, bad behavior. It would be a good call though. Four
straight days of good weather is about all you can hope for this time
of year.

"Gordon" wrote

Don't forget they are using a professional weather router to guide and
advise them.

Yes, but the professional oceanographic vessel officers I was talking to
get pretty good info as well.

--
Roger Long

On 2008-10-06 06:37:49 -0400, "Roger Long" said:

"Wayne.B" wrote

Yes but there were, and still are, some risks:

I had dinner last night with the research vessel captain & mate who
have about 50 years experience in the waters of Chesapeake Bay and
offshore around the capes. I told them what S&L are up to and they said
"They've got more courage than we do. I hope they don't make a habit of
it."

I'm reminded of the saying that airplane pilots have:

"There are old pilots, and there are bold pilots, but there are no old
bold pilots."


The much discussed corollary to that is that taking weather risks and
getting away with it tends to affect future judgement. They pulled this
off but I too hope they don't make a habit of it. If someone with years
of experience had done it, I would be thinking, "Good weather call."
but it looks different for a second offshore passage.

As one who counseled them that Hattaras could blow up unpredictably in
any given hour, particularly this time of year, I have to say it seems
they're taking appropriate actions and precautions, are using every
available input.

They're staying enough clear that they could heave to for many hours,
seem to think it might be a nice change. They motor-sailed for 50+
hours to take advantage of the existing conditions vs what was
predicted to be on the horizon. They're now obviously heading towards
Charleston to ride out expected nastiness -- and probably to take on a
bit more fuel.

--
Jere Lull
Xan-à-Deux -- Tanzer 28 #4 out of Tolchester, MD
Xan's pages: http://web.mac.com/jerelull/iWeb/Xan/
Our BVI trips & tips: http://homepage.mac.com/jerelull/BVI/