"Roger Long" wrote in message
...
I've been asked by private email to comment on the Bill Grey
disappearance.

Back when I was flying general aviation airplanes, I had a lot more
opportunity to the mysterious deaths of people engaged in my favorite
activity. When a plane went down without clear cause, the newsgroups I
frequented then would erupt with speculation followed by flames about the
futility and disrespect of speculation.

I never found the speculation that objectionable myself as long as people
were not claiming to have the answer because of their superior knowledge,
intellect, and analytical skills. Safety in any hazardous environment is
always enhanced by pondering what could go wrong and how you would prevent
or respond to it.

Although I now get paid for applying my knowledge, intellect, and
analytical skills to things like the sinking of the Titanic, I couldn't
begin to form an opinion about what actually happened here. However, it's
instructive for anyone who takes a small craft to sea to think about how
this this boat could have disappeared so suddenly that no distress call
could be made.

--
Roger Long


I've sailed in these waters for years... I can't think of anything that
would sink the boat so quickly or thoroughly that would cause no debris.
I've been out there in very bad conditions, and it was very benign that
day.. light wind, small seas.

Here's a possible scenario... by the way it's Jim Gray...

He's out there to scatter his mother's ashes. The wind and seas are
relatively calm, so he's likely running on the engine. Perhaps he has the
autohelm driving. Even sunny, it's pretty cold right now, and with the
moving boat, he's definitely wearing a foulie or something for a wind break.
Since he's a careful sailor, according to all the reports, he's definitely
wearing a PFD is likely tethered to the boat. I would be if single-handing
offshore. (I do that in the bay when by myself on a typical day of 15 to 20
kts.)

He has some sort of catestrophic medical event.. HA, stroke, whatever, and
dies or is incapacitated quickly, unable to summon help. The boat continues
under autopilot at say 7 kts. If this happened at 10 nm offshore, about the
max range of a cell phone in that area, and he wasn't reported missing until
20:30 hours, then when they finally started looking say at 22:00, he would
have been 20 x 7 = 140 nm. It would take them several more hours to search
this far out, so he might be 200 nm off. The boat would have something like
40 gals max. So, at 5 miles per gallon (SWAG) that would be 200 nm until the
engine died, but if sails were up, it would still be going. Perhaps he was
able to sail for part of the trip. If so, that would extend the range. The
winds were light, under 10 kts, but that's still enough to make good
progress.

--
"j" ganz @@
www.sailnow.com