I've been asked by private email to comment on the Bill Grey disappearance.

Back when I was flying general aviation airplanes, I had a lot more
opportunity to the mysterious deaths of people engaged in my favorite
activity. When a plane went down without clear cause, the newsgroups I
frequented then would erupt with speculation followed by flames about the
futility and disrespect of speculation.

I never found the speculation that objectionable myself as long as people
were not claiming to have the answer because of their superior knowledge,
intellect, and analytical skills. Safety in any hazardous environment is
always enhanced by pondering what could go wrong and how you would prevent
or respond to it.

Although I now get paid for applying my knowledge, intellect, and analytical
skills to things like the sinking of the Titanic, I couldn't begin to form
an opinion about what actually happened here. However, it's instructive for
anyone who takes a small craft to sea to think about how this this boat
could have disappeared so suddenly that no distress call could be made.

--
Roger Long

"Roger Long" wrote in message
...
I've been asked by private email to comment on the Bill Grey
disappearance.

Back when I was flying general aviation airplanes, I had a lot more
opportunity to the mysterious deaths of people engaged in my favorite
activity. When a plane went down without clear cause, the newsgroups I
frequented then would erupt with speculation followed by flames about the
futility and disrespect of speculation.

I never found the speculation that objectionable myself as long as people
were not claiming to have the answer because of their superior knowledge,
intellect, and analytical skills. Safety in any hazardous environment is
always enhanced by pondering what could go wrong and how you would prevent
or respond to it.

Although I now get paid for applying my knowledge, intellect, and
analytical skills to things like the sinking of the Titanic, I couldn't
begin to form an opinion about what actually happened here. However, it's
instructive for anyone who takes a small craft to sea to think about how
this this boat could have disappeared so suddenly that no distress call
could be made.

--
Roger Long


I've sailed in these waters for years... I can't think of anything that
would sink the boat so quickly or thoroughly that would cause no debris.
I've been out there in very bad conditions, and it was very benign that
day.. light wind, small seas.

Here's a possible scenario... by the way it's Jim Gray...

He's out there to scatter his mother's ashes. The wind and seas are
relatively calm, so he's likely running on the engine. Perhaps he has the
autohelm driving. Even sunny, it's pretty cold right now, and with the
moving boat, he's definitely wearing a foulie or something for a wind break.
Since he's a careful sailor, according to all the reports, he's definitely
wearing a PFD is likely tethered to the boat. I would be if single-handing
offshore. (I do that in the bay when by myself on a typical day of 15 to 20
kts.)

He has some sort of catestrophic medical event.. HA, stroke, whatever, and
dies or is incapacitated quickly, unable to summon help. The boat continues
under autopilot at say 7 kts. If this happened at 10 nm offshore, about the
max range of a cell phone in that area, and he wasn't reported missing until
20:30 hours, then when they finally started looking say at 22:00, he would
have been 20 x 7 = 140 nm. It would take them several more hours to search
this far out, so he might be 200 nm off. The boat would have something like
40 gals max. So, at 5 miles per gallon (SWAG) that would be 200 nm until the
engine died, but if sails were up, it would still be going. Perhaps he was
able to sail for part of the trip. If so, that would extend the range. The
winds were light, under 10 kts, but that's still enough to make good
progress.

--
"j" ganz @@
www.sailnow.com

In article , rlong003
@maine.rr.com says...
I've been asked by private email to comment on the Bill Grey disappearance.

Back when I was flying general aviation airplanes, I had a lot more
opportunity to the mysterious deaths of people engaged in my favorite
activity. When a plane went down without clear cause, the newsgroups I
frequented then would erupt with speculation followed by flames about the
futility and disrespect of speculation.

I never found the speculation that objectionable myself as long as people
were not claiming to have the answer because of their superior knowledge,
intellect, and analytical skills. Safety in any hazardous environment is
always enhanced by pondering what could go wrong and how you would prevent
or respond to it.

Although I now get paid for applying my knowledge, intellect, and analytical
skills to things like the sinking of the Titanic, I couldn't begin to form
an opinion about what actually happened here. However, it's instructive for
anyone who takes a small craft to sea to think about how this this boat
could have disappeared so suddenly that no distress call could be made.


If there's only one person aboard, and that person goes overboard,
the boat can take as long as it wants to disappear, and there won't
be a distress call.


Mark Borgerson

Capt. JG wrote:


Here's a possible scenario...

He has some sort of catestrophic medical event.. HA, stroke,
whatever, and dies or is incapacitated quickly, unable to summon
help. The boat continues under autopilot ...

That was my first thought.

Maybe it was just on my mind because I'm planning the installation of a
windvane and autopilot


--
Roger Long

Roger Long wrote:
Capt. JG wrote:


Here's a possible scenario...

He has some sort of catestrophic medical event.. HA, stroke,
whatever, and dies or is incapacitated quickly, unable to summon
help. The boat continues under autopilot ...

That was my first thought.

Maybe it was just on my mind because I'm planning the installation of a
windvane and autopilot



To make it worse, with no one to turn on running lights, it could have
been t-boned by a tanker in the middle of the night, hundreds of miles
away, and never been noticed.

Everyone says that floating debris is inevitable, but I'm not so
convinced. A glancing blow could easily open a hole that would sink
the boat quickly, and if the hatches were closed, how much would escape?

"Jeff" wrote in message
. ..
Roger Long wrote:
Capt. JG wrote:


Here's a possible scenario...

He has some sort of catestrophic medical event.. HA, stroke,
whatever, and dies or is incapacitated quickly, unable to summon
help. The boat continues under autopilot ...

That was my first thought.

Maybe it was just on my mind because I'm planning the installation of a
windvane and autopilot



To make it worse, with no one to turn on running lights, it could have
been t-boned by a tanker in the middle of the night, hundreds of miles
away, and never been noticed.

Everyone says that floating debris is inevitable, but I'm not so
convinced. A glancing blow could easily open a hole that would sink the
boat quickly, and if the hatches were closed, how much would escape?


Well, that's a possibility, but I think it's more likely to still be out
there.

--
"j" ganz @@
www.sailnow.com

"Mark Borgerson" wrote in message
.net...
In article , rlong003
@maine.rr.com says...
I've been asked by private email to comment on the Bill Grey
disappearance.

Back when I was flying general aviation airplanes, I had a lot more
opportunity to the mysterious deaths of people engaged in my favorite
activity. When a plane went down without clear cause, the newsgroups I
frequented then would erupt with speculation followed by flames about the
futility and disrespect of speculation.

I never found the speculation that objectionable myself as long as people
were not claiming to have the answer because of their superior knowledge,
intellect, and analytical skills. Safety in any hazardous environment is
always enhanced by pondering what could go wrong and how you would
prevent
or respond to it.

Although I now get paid for applying my knowledge, intellect, and
analytical
skills to things like the sinking of the Titanic, I couldn't begin to
form
an opinion about what actually happened here. However, it's instructive
for
anyone who takes a small craft to sea to think about how this this boat
could have disappeared so suddenly that no distress call could be made.


If there's only one person aboard, and that person goes overboard,
the boat can take as long as it wants to disappear, and there won't
be a distress call.


Mark Borgerson



True, but he did had a history of being tethered and wearing a PFD.

--
"j" ganz @@
www.sailnow.com

"Gogarty" wrote in message
...
In article ,
says...


In article , rlong003
says...
I've been asked by private email to comment on the Bill Grey
disappearance.

Back when I was flying general aviation airplanes, I had a lot more
opportunity to the mysterious deaths of people engaged in my favorite
activity. When a plane went down without clear cause, the newsgroups I
frequented then would erupt with speculation followed by flames about
the
futility and disrespect of speculation.

I never found the speculation that objectionable myself as long as
people
were not claiming to have the answer because of their superior
knowledge,
intellect, and analytical skills. Safety in any hazardous environment is
always enhanced by pondering what could go wrong and how you would
prevent
or respond to it.

Although I now get paid for applying my knowledge, intellect, and
analytical
skills to things like the sinking of the Titanic, I couldn't begin to
form
an opinion about what actually happened here. However, it's instructive
for
anyone who takes a small craft to sea to think about how this this boat
could have disappeared so suddenly that no distress call could be made.


If there's only one person aboard, and that person goes overboard,
the boat can take as long as it wants to disappear, and there won't
be a distress call.


Mark Borgerson

Did I not read there was a cell phone signal in the evening?



No... mid-morning...

http://www.mercurynews.com/mld/mercu...l/16591383.htm


--
"j" ganz @@
www.sailnow.com

In article , lid
says...
"Mark Borgerson" wrote in message
.net...
In article , rlong003
@maine.rr.com says...
I've been asked by private email to comment on the Bill Grey
disappearance.

Back when I was flying general aviation airplanes, I had a lot more
opportunity to the mysterious deaths of people engaged in my favorite
activity. When a plane went down without clear cause, the newsgroups I
frequented then would erupt with speculation followed by flames about the
futility and disrespect of speculation.

I never found the speculation that objectionable myself as long as people
were not claiming to have the answer because of their superior knowledge,
intellect, and analytical skills. Safety in any hazardous environment is
always enhanced by pondering what could go wrong and how you would
prevent
or respond to it.

Although I now get paid for applying my knowledge, intellect, and
analytical
skills to things like the sinking of the Titanic, I couldn't begin to
form
an opinion about what actually happened here. However, it's instructive
for
anyone who takes a small craft to sea to think about how this this boat
could have disappeared so suddenly that no distress call could be made.


If there's only one person aboard, and that person goes overboard,
the boat can take as long as it wants to disappear, and there won't
be a distress call.


Mark Borgerson



True, but he did had a history of being tethered and wearing a PFD.

Depending on the boat and his strength, getting back aboard might
have been impossible. That depends a lot on the length of the
tether and whether the boat was in motion.

In my younger days (more than 30 years ago), I singlehanded around
SF Bay in an Islander 24 for a few months after I got out of the Navy.
I even ventured as far north as Bodega Bay. After a few foggy
mornings out there, I decided I wouldbe better off going back to
graduate school! It was bad enough in the summer. I probably
would never have ventured outside the Golden Gate in the winter.

Since sea time in Large Gray Boats doesn't quite count the same
as time in your own sailboat, I was a much less experienced
sailor than Bill Gray, though.

Mark Borgerson

"Mark Borgerson" wrote in message
.net...

True, but he did had a history of being tethered and wearing a PFD.

Depending on the boat and his strength, getting back aboard might
have been impossible. That depends a lot on the length of the
tether and whether the boat was in motion.

In my younger days (more than 30 years ago), I singlehanded around
SF Bay in an Islander 24 for a few months after I got out of the Navy.
I even ventured as far north as Bodega Bay. After a few foggy
mornings out there, I decided I wouldbe better off going back to
graduate school! It was bad enough in the summer. I probably
would never have ventured outside the Golden Gate in the winter.

Since sea time in Large Gray Boats doesn't quite count the same
as time in your own sailboat, I was a much less experienced
sailor than Bill Gray, though.

Mark Borgerson



In that case, he would still be attached to the boat... remember, the
conditions were fairly benign that day (and still are).

Summer is prime sailing season here. Winter sailing is typically either no
sailing due to storms or very light wind sailing.


--
"j" ganz @@
www.sailnow.com