"Lindsay" writes:

I would say that on average the forecast is 50% correct which obviously
means that they are wrong 50% of the time although never counted.

If you predict that tomorrow will be like today you're right more than
50% of the time.

--
Chris Malcolm +44 (0)131 651 3445 DoD #205
IPAB, Informatics, JCMB, King's Buildings, Edinburgh, EH9 3JZ, UK
[http://www.dai.ed.ac.uk/homes/cam/]

Chris Malcolm wrote:

If you predict that tomorrow will be like today you're right more than
50% of the time.

Unless it's nice to day and you plan to be out tomorrow... ;-/

Pete.
--
Peter Clinch Medical Physics IT Officer
Tel 44 1382 660111 ext. 33637 Univ. of Dundee, Ninewells Hospital
Fax 44 1382 640177 Dundee DD1 9SY Scotland UK
net http://www.dundee.ac.uk/~pjclinch/

In uk.rec.walking Peter Clinch wrote:
Chris Malcolm wrote:
If you predict that tomorrow will be like today you're right more than
50% of the time.
Unless it's nice to day and you plan to be out tomorrow... ;-/

Last year I had worked out that there is a seven-day cycle: five days
of sunshine and then two days of rain and storms (typically beginnning
on Fridays at 4pm). Unless you take a week off that is...

I'm glad to say the pattern seems to have changed!
--
Rudi Winter, Aberystwyth, Wales

"Chris Malcolm" wrote in message
...
"Lindsay" writes:

I would say that on average the forecast is 50% correct which obviously
means that they are wrong 50% of the time although never counted.

If you predict that tomorrow will be like today you're right more than
50% of the time.


And if the Isobar charts are predicted to be very simillar tommorow as they
are today then the weather is nearly gaurenteed to be the same!.

I use this tactic all the time, watch the webcams every day, and if the
weathers good today and the air movement is predicted to be the same
tomorrow I head up north. Fantastic sucess rate, my last 70 Munros have been
cloud free!