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#1
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Scottish weather forecasting
In July 2001 the Met Office opened a new "Centre of Excellence" in
Aberdeen, primarily to provide marine forecasts but it also provides forecasts for mountain use, winter road conditions and aviation use. By all accounts I've seen the centre has been successful, both commercially and in terms of its quality of service. Being a modern weather forecasting service it is heavily reliant on computing power, but as we know, computer forecasts don't have it all worked out yet and a degree of local, specialist knowledge helps in giving a good forecast on top of what the computer models can do. So I've been rather dismayed to hear that the Met Office are proposing to close down the Aberdeen office and move its operations to their main base in Exeter, putting all their eggs in the supercomputing basket. Local Weather For Local People? Not any more if the Met Office have their way. The closure is subject to consultation, and to try and sway this consultation an e-petition is in place at: http://www.petitiononline.com/SCOTMET/petition.html If you share my view that this closure is a potentially Very Bad Idea, please take the time to sign it. Pete. -- Peter Clinch Medical Physics IT Officer Tel 44 1382 660111 ext. 33637 Univ. of Dundee, Ninewells Hospital Fax 44 1382 640177 Dundee DD1 9SY Scotland UK net http://www.dundee.ac.uk/~pjclinch/ |
#2
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Nice one Pete. Delighted to add my name.
Do they know what Munros are in Exeter? :-) -- Remove my boots to email me ... Regards Andy "Peter Clinch" wrote in message ... In July 2001 the Met Office opened a new "Centre of Excellence" in Aberdeen, primarily to provide marine forecasts but it also provides forecasts for mountain use, winter road conditions and aviation use. By all accounts I've seen the centre has been successful, both commercially and in terms of its quality of service. Being a modern weather forecasting service it is heavily reliant on computing power, but as we know, computer forecasts don't have it all worked out yet and a degree of local, specialist knowledge helps in giving a good forecast on top of what the computer models can do. So I've been rather dismayed to hear that the Met Office are proposing to close down the Aberdeen office and move its operations to their main base in Exeter, putting all their eggs in the supercomputing basket. Local Weather For Local People? Not any more if the Met Office have their way. The closure is subject to consultation, and to try and sway this consultation an e-petition is in place at: http://www.petitiononline.com/SCOTMET/petition.html If you share my view that this closure is a potentially Very Bad Idea, please take the time to sign it. Pete. -- Peter Clinch Medical Physics IT Officer Tel 44 1382 660111 ext. 33637 Univ. of Dundee, Ninewells Hospital Fax 44 1382 640177 Dundee DD1 9SY Scotland UK net http://www.dundee.ac.uk/~pjclinch/ |
#3
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Andy Crawford wrote:
Nice one Pete. Delighted to add my name. Do they know what Munros are in Exeter? :-) Just small bits of the Matrix... which they are, at some level, but until the Met Office's supercomputers can lay in perfect forecasts they're a little more than that, too. Pete. -- Peter Clinch Medical Physics IT Officer Tel 44 1382 660111 ext. 33637 Univ. of Dundee, Ninewells Hospital Fax 44 1382 640177 Dundee DD1 9SY Scotland UK net http://www.dundee.ac.uk/~pjclinch/ |
#4
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Peter Clinch writes:
Andy Crawford wrote: Nice one Pete. Delighted to add my name. Do they know what Munros are in Exeter? :-) Just small bits of the Matrix... which they are, at some level, but until the Met Office's supercomputers can lay in perfect forecasts they're a little more than that, too. I suppose that if you use the average height in each gridpoint that Scotland is actually fairly flat :-) Roos |
#5
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"Peter Clinch" wrote in message ... Andy Crawford wrote: Nice one Pete. Delighted to add my name. Do they know what Munros are in Exeter? :-) Just small bits of the Matrix... which they are, at some level, but until the Met Office's supercomputers can lay in perfect forecasts they're a little more than that, too. To be honest, from what my Dad heard when he took a trip round the Met Office recently, wherever they are, they can only predict with any degree of certainty upto three days ahead. Anything beyond that is purely theoretical, based on Computer sims and about as reliable as crows flying and cows lying down. Rob |
#6
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I hope this does not compromise Radio Scotlands excellent Outdoors
Conditions Forecast. At the moment I would say it is as important as Geoff Monks mwis in picking out my hill days! I often await this forecast before getting my stuff togehter for a quick blast up north! Compared to a decade ago we are absolutely spoilt with quality weather information such as the two mentioned above along with the forecasting models such as Wetterkarte GFS and Americas NOGAPS No excuses for a duff day in the hills now, I haven't had one since Oct last year, and I've probably knocked off about 70 munros since then! Don't quite no what went wrong that day, every forecast showed near excellent conditions, ended up navigating my way round the 3 hills just above newtonmoor, what a waste of a day out! Pity the beeb seem to be trying to emulate that awful met check computer generated meaningless garbage that is about as much use as a candle in a jam jar! |
#7
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Radio Scotland is fine when you don't have access to a computer but
their service isn't that reliable firstly because they change the timings to suit any programme change or it is on FM and not MW or vice versa. Try finding a forecast on Sunday evening there is none. I also suspect that the morning forecast on Saturday and Sunday is a repeat of what they say the evening before. I say that because one evening I listened to the forecast and they made an error. The same error was repeated in the morning forecast so they are just reading from a script which they are not updating regularly. I think they would rather we paid for this service. Not much change when there are free sites on the internet like Geoff Monks. I would say that on average the forecast is 50% correct which obviously means that they are wrong 50% of the time although never counted. Lindsay www.caledoniahilltreks.com |
#8
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"Lindsay" writes:
I would say that on average the forecast is 50% correct which obviously means that they are wrong 50% of the time although never counted. If you predict that tomorrow will be like today you're right more than 50% of the time. -- Chris Malcolm +44 (0)131 651 3445 DoD #205 IPAB, Informatics, JCMB, King's Buildings, Edinburgh, EH9 3JZ, UK [http://www.dai.ed.ac.uk/homes/cam/] |
#9
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Chris Malcolm wrote:
If you predict that tomorrow will be like today you're right more than 50% of the time. Unless it's nice to day and you plan to be out tomorrow... ;-/ Pete. -- Peter Clinch Medical Physics IT Officer Tel 44 1382 660111 ext. 33637 Univ. of Dundee, Ninewells Hospital Fax 44 1382 640177 Dundee DD1 9SY Scotland UK net http://www.dundee.ac.uk/~pjclinch/ |
#10
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In uk.rec.walking Peter Clinch wrote:
Chris Malcolm wrote: If you predict that tomorrow will be like today you're right more than 50% of the time. Unless it's nice to day and you plan to be out tomorrow... ;-/ Last year I had worked out that there is a seven-day cycle: five days of sunshine and then two days of rain and storms (typically beginnning on Fridays at 4pm). Unless you take a week off that is... I'm glad to say the pattern seems to have changed! -- Rudi Winter, Aberystwyth, Wales |
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