"Lindsay" writes:

I would say that on average the forecast is 50% correct which obviously
means that they are wrong 50% of the time although never counted.

If you predict that tomorrow will be like today you're right more than
50% of the time.

--
Chris Malcolm +44 (0)131 651 3445 DoD #205
IPAB, Informatics, JCMB, King's Buildings, Edinburgh, EH9 3JZ, UK
[http://www.dai.ed.ac.uk/homes/cam/]

Chris Malcolm wrote:

If you predict that tomorrow will be like today you're right more than
50% of the time.

Unless it's nice to day and you plan to be out tomorrow... ;-/

Pete.
--
Peter Clinch Medical Physics IT Officer
Tel 44 1382 660111 ext. 33637 Univ. of Dundee, Ninewells Hospital
Fax 44 1382 640177 Dundee DD1 9SY Scotland UK
net http://www.dundee.ac.uk/~pjclinch/

"Lindsay" wrote in message

Radio Scotland is fine when you don't have access to a computer but
their service isn't that reliable firstly because they change the
timings to suit any programme change or it is on FM and not MW or vice
versa. Try finding a forecast on Sunday evening there is none.

Agreed, annoying to have to switch furiously between FM and AM just before
7pm in hope that you get the right station. But if you are away from home
and unable to get online, it is the only hill forcast going!

It is sometimes available on a Sunday! I once accidently heard it on the
radio at 10pm .....3 hours late!


I also suspect that the morning forecast on Saturday and Sunday is a
repeat of what they say the evening before. I say that because one
evening I listened to the forecast and they made an error. The same
error was repeated in the morning forecast so they are just reading
from a script which they are not updating regularly. I think they
would rather we paid for this service. Not much change when there are
free sites on the internet like Geoff Monks.

I would say that on average the forecast is 50% correct which obviously
means that they are wrong 50% of the time although never counted.


Thhey are much better than that, even I can achieve much better than 50%



Lindsay
www.caledoniahilltreks.com

"Chris Malcolm" wrote in message
...
"Lindsay" writes:

I would say that on average the forecast is 50% correct which obviously
means that they are wrong 50% of the time although never counted.

If you predict that tomorrow will be like today you're right more than
50% of the time.


And if the Isobar charts are predicted to be very simillar tommorow as they
are today then the weather is nearly gaurenteed to be the same!.

I use this tactic all the time, watch the webcams every day, and if the
weathers good today and the air movement is predicted to be the same
tomorrow I head up north. Fantastic sucess rate, my last 70 Munros have been
cloud free!

In uk.rec.walking Peter Clinch wrote:
Chris Malcolm wrote:
If you predict that tomorrow will be like today you're right more than
50% of the time.
Unless it's nice to day and you plan to be out tomorrow... ;-/

Last year I had worked out that there is a seven-day cycle: five days
of sunshine and then two days of rain and storms (typically beginnning
on Fridays at 4pm). Unless you take a week off that is...

I'm glad to say the pattern seems to have changed!
--
Rudi Winter, Aberystwyth, Wales