In article ,
Gould 0738 wrote:


Bush is dropping like a rock. He's now as 28 with Kerry at 71 to win. He's
also
falling fast in the Florida race, the Ohio race and the popular vote. It's
not
going to be as close as a lot of people think, if this proves true. Which, I
hope it is.

I hope the election isn't a "squeaker."
I believe Kerry could show stronger than the pre-election polls due to the
"cell phone factor", (a high percentage of people under about 30 have no land
lines, and therefore do not get polled), record voter turnout, (lots of new
young voters who haven't yet grown cynical- as well as greater emphasis on the
registered, vs "likely" voter categories when a higher percentage of the
electorate turns out), and his strong end of race momentum.

The nation needs a clear winner this time around. A win so decisive that we
won't spend the next four years arguing about who really won the race. It would
be better if that winner is Kerry, but if Bush slides in
"safe" at second let's hope the margin is
obvious. If there was any question about his initial election, it would be
better if there were no question about the legitimacy of his (wash my mouth
out) possible reelection.

I think you're nuts.

Note that all of the reported counties thus far are in the peninsula.

The Panhandle traditionally votes about 70% Bush - and did in 2000.

Yet Bush is ahead in Florida....

I wouldn't take a bet on Kerry winning Florida - nor Ohio from what I see
at this point.

Note that some of the calls made had the exit polls pointing the other way
- particularly Virginia.

The exit polls had one major problem this time - they were overweighted
female, which is not a good thing for accuracy.

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