In article ,
Gould 0738 wrote:


Bush is dropping like a rock. He's now as 28 with Kerry at 71 to win. He's
also
falling fast in the Florida race, the Ohio race and the popular vote. It's
not
going to be as close as a lot of people think, if this proves true. Which, I
hope it is.

I hope the election isn't a "squeaker."
I believe Kerry could show stronger than the pre-election polls due to the
"cell phone factor", (a high percentage of people under about 30 have no land
lines, and therefore do not get polled), record voter turnout, (lots of new
young voters who haven't yet grown cynical- as well as greater emphasis on the
registered, vs "likely" voter categories when a higher percentage of the
electorate turns out), and his strong end of race momentum.

The nation needs a clear winner this time around. A win so decisive that we
won't spend the next four years arguing about who really won the race. It would
be better if that winner is Kerry, but if Bush slides in
"safe" at second let's hope the margin is
obvious. If there was any question about his initial election, it would be
better if there were no question about the legitimacy of his (wash my mouth
out) possible reelection.

I think you're nuts.

Note that all of the reported counties thus far are in the peninsula.

The Panhandle traditionally votes about 70% Bush - and did in 2000.

Yet Bush is ahead in Florida....

I wouldn't take a bet on Kerry winning Florida - nor Ohio from what I see
at this point.

Note that some of the calls made had the exit polls pointing the other way
- particularly Virginia.

The exit polls had one major problem this time - they were overweighted
female, which is not a good thing for accuracy.

--
--
Karl Denninger ) Internet Consultant & Kids Rights Activist
http://www.denninger.net My home on the net - links to everything I do!
http://scubaforum.org Your UNCENSORED place to talk about DIVING!
http://www.spamcuda.net SPAM FREE mailboxes - FREE FOR A LIMITED TIME!
http://genesis3.blogspot.com Musings Of A Sentient Mind

I think you're nuts.

Thanks karl.

Which statement did you think was the nuttier?

My hope that the election would be decided by an obvious margin, one way or the
other- or my observation that a clearly legitimate win will be important for
either candidate?

In article ,
Gould 0738 wrote:


I think you're nuts.

Thanks karl.

Which statement did you think was the nuttier?

My hope that the election would be decided by an obvious margin, one way or the
other- or my observation that a clearly legitimate win will be important for
either candidate?

I agree with both of those sentiments Chuck. It appeared you were
basically calling the election for Kerry based on the exit polls.

However, I do not believe that Kerry's odds are looking good right
now. The exit polls were clearly wrong in at least a couple of cases
so far, and the reason (improper split of gender among those polled)
appears to have been identified. The misrepresentation of the sample
is large enough (close to 10%) that the swing would easily be 3-4% in
the results .vs. actual returns. This has been confirmed in Virginia -
if it holds elsewhere, Kerry is toast and it indeed will not be close.

Since women tend to vote Democrat, this skews the results - with all these
states being within a couple of points, the error is much larger than the
margin.

I'm looking at Florida's returns right now on a county-by-county basis, and
were I Kerry I wouldn't like what I was seeing. With the exception of
Miami-Dade the counties that should have broken for Kerry big haven't -
and the counties that break heavily for Bush aren't yet in - yet Bush is
comfortably ahead among those counties that HAVE been counted.

The truly ugly part of it for Kerry is that some of the I-4 corridor
counties ARE in, the turnout was huge, and while these counties went for
Gore in 2000, they've gone for Bush in a big way this time around - showing
that the turnout "projections" (e.g. big turnout helps 'crats) probably
isn't going to hold up this time.

If Florida and Ohio both go for Bush then there is basically no way for
Kerry to pull it off.

--
--
Karl Denninger ) Internet Consultant & Kids Rights Activist
http://www.denninger.net My home on the net - links to everything I do!
http://scubaforum.org Your UNCENSORED place to talk about DIVING!
http://www.spamcuda.net SPAM FREE mailboxes - FREE FOR A LIMITED TIME!
http://genesis3.blogspot.com Musings Of A Sentient Mind

On Wed, 03 Nov 2004 01:52:03 GMT, (Karl
Denninger) wrote:


The exit polls had one major problem this time

The biggest problem with exit polls currently is they can't take into
account electronic fraud.

bb

In article ,
bb wrote:


On Wed, 03 Nov 2004 01:52:03 GMT, (Karl
Denninger) wrote:


The exit polls had one major problem this time

The biggest problem with exit polls currently is they can't take into
account electronic fraud.

bb

The exit polls were overrepresenting women by nearly 10%.

That will result in a swing of 3-4% in the results towards Democrats.

If you take the exit polls and move them 3-4% towards Bush, he wins
Florida, Ohio, Virginia and a whole host of other states that looked like
Kerry wins this afternoon.

Virginia has already confirmed this shift, and it looks from a county-level
view in Florida like it may be confirmed here as well.

--
--
Karl Denninger ) Internet Consultant & Kids Rights Activist
http://www.denninger.net My home on the net - links to everything I do!
http://scubaforum.org Your UNCENSORED place to talk about DIVING!
http://www.spamcuda.net SPAM FREE mailboxes - FREE FOR A LIMITED TIME!
http://genesis3.blogspot.com Musings Of A Sentient Mind