BoatBanter.com - View Single Post

On 02 Nov 2004 23:39:08 GMT, (Gould 0738) wrote:

Bush is dropping like a rock. He's now as 28 with Kerry at 71 to win. He's
also
falling fast in the Florida race, the Ohio race and the popular vote. It's
not
going to be as close as a lot of people think, if this proves true. Which, I
hope it is.

I hope the election isn't a "squeaker."
I believe Kerry could show stronger than the pre-election polls due to the
"cell phone factor", (a high percentage of people under about 30 have no land
lines, and therefore do not get polled), record voter turnout, (lots of new
young voters who haven't yet grown cynical- as well as greater emphasis on the
registered, vs "likely" voter categories when a higher percentage of the
electorate turns out), and his strong end of race momentum.

Two comments:

1 - I was talking to a state DNC member about a month or so back and
she was telling me that the pollsters had missed one huge block of
potential voters - the 18-25 block and that's why she was pushing hard
for contact polling data. The reason? Cell phones - they aren't
polled as it's illegal. She had a pretty good logic going for her
too.

2 - My wife and I just returned from Town Hall and the Town Clerk was
telling me that this is the first time she's ever seen voter volume
like this - and we're only 6,500 people strong.

I agree with you on the clear election results.

For the record, I didn't vote for President as it's a foregone
conclusion here in CT for one and I just couldn't bring myself to vote
for either of the two goons running. Voted for all the other offices
though.

All the best,

Tom
--------------

"What the hell's the deal with this newsgroup...
is there a computer terminal in the day room of
some looney bin somewhere?"

Bilgeman - circa 2004