I think you're nuts.

Thanks karl.

Which statement did you think was the nuttier?

My hope that the election would be decided by an obvious margin, one way or the
other- or my observation that a clearly legitimate win will be important for
either candidate?

In article ,
Gould 0738 wrote:


I think you're nuts.

Thanks karl.

Which statement did you think was the nuttier?

My hope that the election would be decided by an obvious margin, one way or the
other- or my observation that a clearly legitimate win will be important for
either candidate?

I agree with both of those sentiments Chuck. It appeared you were
basically calling the election for Kerry based on the exit polls.

However, I do not believe that Kerry's odds are looking good right
now. The exit polls were clearly wrong in at least a couple of cases
so far, and the reason (improper split of gender among those polled)
appears to have been identified. The misrepresentation of the sample
is large enough (close to 10%) that the swing would easily be 3-4% in
the results .vs. actual returns. This has been confirmed in Virginia -
if it holds elsewhere, Kerry is toast and it indeed will not be close.

Since women tend to vote Democrat, this skews the results - with all these
states being within a couple of points, the error is much larger than the
margin.

I'm looking at Florida's returns right now on a county-by-county basis, and
were I Kerry I wouldn't like what I was seeing. With the exception of
Miami-Dade the counties that should have broken for Kerry big haven't -
and the counties that break heavily for Bush aren't yet in - yet Bush is
comfortably ahead among those counties that HAVE been counted.

The truly ugly part of it for Kerry is that some of the I-4 corridor
counties ARE in, the turnout was huge, and while these counties went for
Gore in 2000, they've gone for Bush in a big way this time around - showing
that the turnout "projections" (e.g. big turnout helps 'crats) probably
isn't going to hold up this time.

If Florida and Ohio both go for Bush then there is basically no way for
Kerry to pull it off.

--
--
Karl Denninger ) Internet Consultant & Kids Rights Activist
http://www.denninger.net My home on the net - links to everything I do!
http://scubaforum.org Your UNCENSORED place to talk about DIVING!
http://www.spamcuda.net SPAM FREE mailboxes - FREE FOR A LIMITED TIME!
http://genesis3.blogspot.com Musings Of A Sentient Mind

On Wed, 03 Nov 2004 01:52:03 GMT, (Karl
Denninger) wrote:


The exit polls had one major problem this time

The biggest problem with exit polls currently is they can't take into
account electronic fraud.

bb

In article ,
bb wrote:


On Wed, 03 Nov 2004 01:52:03 GMT, (Karl
Denninger) wrote:


The exit polls had one major problem this time

The biggest problem with exit polls currently is they can't take into
account electronic fraud.

bb

The exit polls were overrepresenting women by nearly 10%.

That will result in a swing of 3-4% in the results towards Democrats.

If you take the exit polls and move them 3-4% towards Bush, he wins
Florida, Ohio, Virginia and a whole host of other states that looked like
Kerry wins this afternoon.

Virginia has already confirmed this shift, and it looks from a county-level
view in Florida like it may be confirmed here as well.

--
--
Karl Denninger ) Internet Consultant & Kids Rights Activist
http://www.denninger.net My home on the net - links to everything I do!
http://scubaforum.org Your UNCENSORED place to talk about DIVING!
http://www.spamcuda.net SPAM FREE mailboxes - FREE FOR A LIMITED TIME!
http://genesis3.blogspot.com Musings Of A Sentient Mind

Oops. Bush is winning FL, the popular vote, and probably OH and the
presidency as of 0037 CST. Like you're influencing the vote.

--


Keith
__
"If you had to identify in a word, the reason why the human race has not
achieved and never will achieve its full potential, that word would be
"meetings." - Dave Barry
"F330 GT" wrote in message
...
F330 GT wrote:
Tradesports Interactive now shows Bush pres @ 38, Kerry pres @ 62.4 a
change of
15 points in the last few hours.

Bush winning popular vote @ 25.1. Kerry wins popular vote @ 54.6.

Follow the money.... The bettors know.


Barry

Oh, come on...I didn't get to vote that many times.

Seriously, even the exit polling data spilling about is too preliminary
for anyone to determine anything.


--
You're probably right but the signs are looking real good. This site is a
real
time market for trading and as such is as close to a real time poll as you
can
get.

Bush is dropping like a rock. He's now as 28 with Kerry at 71 to win. He's
also
falling fast in the Florida race, the Ohio race and the popular vote. It's
not
going to be as close as a lot of people think, if this proves true. Which,
I
hope it is.

Check out: www.tradesports.com

Barry

On 02 Nov 2004 21:41:50 GMT, unity (F330 GT) wrote:

Tradesports Interactive now shows Bush pres @ 38, Kerry pres @ 62.4 a change of
15 points in the last few hours.

Bush winning popular vote @ 25.1. Kerry wins popular vote @ 54.6.

Follow the money.... The bettors know........

Nothing!

Reality paints a much different picture the day after....

Dave

On Wed, 03 Nov 2004 10:21:58 -0500, Dave Hall
wrote:

On 02 Nov 2004 21:41:50 GMT, unity (F330 GT) wrote:

Tradesports Interactive now shows Bush pres @ 38, Kerry pres @ 62.4 a change of
15 points in the last few hours.

Bush winning popular vote @ 25.1. Kerry wins popular vote @ 54.6.

Follow the money.... The bettors know........

Nothing!

Reality paints a much different picture the day after....

Think Washington Redskins. :)

Pigs are really flying!!!!

Later,

Tom

"Beware the one legged man in a butt
kicking contest - he is there for a
reason."

Wun Hung Lo - date unknown

"Short Wave Sportfishing" wrote in message
...
On Wed, 03 Nov 2004 10:21:58 -0500, Dave Hall
wrote:

On 02 Nov 2004 21:41:50 GMT, unity (F330 GT) wrote:

Tradesports Interactive now shows Bush pres @ 38, Kerry pres @ 62.4 a
change of
15 points in the last few hours.

Bush winning popular vote @ 25.1. Kerry wins popular vote @ 54.6.

Follow the money.... The bettors know........

Nothing!

Reality paints a much different picture the day after....

Think Washington Redskins. :)

Or the Red Sox!?

On Wed, 03 Nov 2004 19:10:19 GMT, Short Wave Sportfishing
wrote:

On Wed, 03 Nov 2004 10:21:58 -0500, Dave Hall
wrote:

On 02 Nov 2004 21:41:50 GMT, unity (F330 GT) wrote:

Tradesports Interactive now shows Bush pres @ 38, Kerry pres @ 62.4 a change of
15 points in the last few hours.

Bush winning popular vote @ 25.1. Kerry wins popular vote @ 54.6.

Follow the money.... The bettors know........

Nothing!

Reality paints a much different picture the day after....

Think Washington Redskins. :)

Pigs are really flying!!!!


Another unrelated coincidence bites the dust......

Dave

"Dave Hall" wrote in message
...
On Wed, 03 Nov 2004 19:10:19 GMT, Short Wave Sportfishing
wrote:

On Wed, 03 Nov 2004 10:21:58 -0500, Dave Hall
wrote:

On 02 Nov 2004 21:41:50 GMT, unity (F330 GT) wrote:

Tradesports Interactive now shows Bush pres @ 38, Kerry pres @ 62.4 a
change of
15 points in the last few hours.

Bush winning popular vote @ 25.1. Kerry wins popular vote @ 54.6.

Follow the money.... The bettors know........

Nothing!

Reality paints a much different picture the day after....

Think Washington Redskins. :)

Pigs are really flying!!!!


Another unrelated coincidence bites the dust......

Dave

But the school polls have maintained their accuracy.........because most
kids vote their parents values.