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#1
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OT--Forget the head-to-head numbers
If you look at the state-by-state, favorable/unfavorable internals, you'll
see that Kerry is cooked. http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/6369953/ Florida Bush favorable: 51% unfavorable: 39% Kerry favorable: 42% unfavorable: 42% Ohio Bush favorable: 48% unfavorable: 41% Kerry favorable: 41% unfavorable: 41% (it says 18, but that's reversed with the neutral) Wisconsin Bush favorable: 46% unfavorable: 43% Kerry favorable: 44% unfavorable: 41% Pennsylvania Bush favorable: 46% unfavorable: 43% Kerry favorable: 42% unfavorable: 43% New Mexico Bush favorable: 51% unfavorable: 37% Kerry favorable: 43% unfavorable: 44% Michigan Bush favorable: 45% unfavorable: 44% Kerry favorable: 42% unfavorable: 41% --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Bush's average favorability rating is 47.83%. Kerry's is 42.33%. Bush leads by more than 5 1/2 points. Bush's average unfavorability rating is 41.17%. Kerry's is 42.00%. Bush leads by less than a point. |
#2
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The only numbers that will matter Tuesday night are the Electoral College
results. One of the candidates will need 270 votes to be elected. Polling in each state shows that John Kerry will have the votes to be elected president. See http://www.electoral-vote.com/. Also see the predicted final outcome at http://www.electoral-vote.com/pred/index.html. Buh-bye George. "NOYB" wrote in message ... If you look at the state-by-state, favorable/unfavorable internals, you'll see that Kerry is cooked. http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/6369953/ Florida Bush favorable: 51% unfavorable: 39% Kerry favorable: 42% unfavorable: 42% Ohio Bush favorable: 48% unfavorable: 41% Kerry favorable: 41% unfavorable: 41% (it says 18, but that's reversed with the neutral) Wisconsin Bush favorable: 46% unfavorable: 43% Kerry favorable: 44% unfavorable: 41% Pennsylvania Bush favorable: 46% unfavorable: 43% Kerry favorable: 42% unfavorable: 43% New Mexico Bush favorable: 51% unfavorable: 37% Kerry favorable: 43% unfavorable: 44% Michigan Bush favorable: 45% unfavorable: 44% Kerry favorable: 42% unfavorable: 41% -------------------------------------------------------------------------- ------------------------------------- Bush's average favorability rating is 47.83%. Kerry's is 42.33%. Bush leads by more than 5 1/2 points. Bush's average unfavorability rating is 41.17%. Kerry's is 42.00%. Bush leads by less than a point. |
#3
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"Snafu" wrote in message ... The only numbers that will matter Tuesday night are the Electoral College results. One of the candidates will need 270 votes to be elected. Polling in each state shows that John Kerry will have the votes to be elected president. See http://www.electoral-vote.com/. Correction: Polling in each state shows that George Bush will have the votes to be elected President. See: http://www.electionprojection.com Your site uses a single poll to project the winner...and he seems to arbitrarily pick the most favorable poll for Kerry. For instance, today's Mason-Dixon and Rasmussen polls showed Bush ahead in Florida by 4 points and 1 point, respectively. Zogby shows Kerry up 2. Who does the webmaster of electoral-vote.com give Florida to? Kerry...based solely on Zogby's poll. www.electionprojection.com uses an average of the major polls. So does www.realclearpolitics.com ...and if you take an average of the major polls, Bush is leading in the popular vote *and* the Electoral College. In fact, if you look at the electoral-vote.com site where he uses *averaged* data, you'll see that Bush is leading even at electoral-vote.com. See: http://www.electoral-vote.com/fin/oct31z.html |
#4
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The poll used to project a state on www.electoral-vote.com is the latest
poll based on the average of the range of dates on which the survey was taken. He's very clear about that. That doesn't seem arbitrary to me. As was demonstrated in 2000, popular vote totals don't mean anything. I think the election is so close it can go either way. We'll see how close it is on Tuesday night. "NOYB" wrote in message ... "Snafu" wrote in message ... The only numbers that will matter Tuesday night are the Electoral College results. One of the candidates will need 270 votes to be elected. Polling in each state shows that John Kerry will have the votes to be elected president. See http://www.electoral-vote.com/. Correction: Polling in each state shows that George Bush will have the votes to be elected President. See: http://www.electionprojection.com Your site uses a single poll to project the winner...and he seems to arbitrarily pick the most favorable poll for Kerry. For instance, today's Mason-Dixon and Rasmussen polls showed Bush ahead in Florida by 4 points and 1 point, respectively. Zogby shows Kerry up 2. Who does the webmaster of electoral-vote.com give Florida to? Kerry...based solely on Zogby's poll. www.electionprojection.com uses an average of the major polls. So does www.realclearpolitics.com ...and if you take an average of the major polls, Bush is leading in the popular vote *and* the Electoral College. In fact, if you look at the electoral-vote.com site where he uses *averaged* data, you'll see that Bush is leading even at electoral-vote.com. See: http://www.electoral-vote.com/fin/oct31z.html |
#5
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"Snafu" wrote in message ... The poll used to project a state on www.electoral-vote.com is the latest poll based on the average of the range of dates on which the survey was taken. He's very clear about that. He's lying and you believed it. Check for yourself. The Mason-Dixon poll is more current than the Zogby poll, even when you average the range of dates. Mason-Dixon has Bush up 4 in Florida, and up 1 in Minnesota (it's right there in the first table on his website). Your guy uses Zogby's numbers for both states...thus giving both states to Kerry. What a farce! That doesn't seem arbitrary to me. Now does it? As was demonstrated in 2000, popular vote totals don't mean anything. I'm talking about EC votes. If you average all of the major polls, Bush has more EC votes. If you take just Zogby's numbers, Kerry has more EC votes. Since Gallup, Rasmussen, and Mason-Dixon are all more recent than Zogby's (by 1 day), electoral-vote ought to be using the numbers from those pollsters. I'll stick with realclearpolitics.com or electionprojection.com since both of those sites take an average of the major polls. I'll also look at electoral-vote.com's link and click on the "Averaged" data map: http://www.electoral-vote.com/fin/oct31z.html |
#6
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NOYB,
This is a close race, the margin of error is higher than the spread between the candidates. The election will go to whomever is able to get out the votes. "NOYB" wrote in message ... "Snafu" wrote in message ... The only numbers that will matter Tuesday night are the Electoral College results. One of the candidates will need 270 votes to be elected. Polling in each state shows that John Kerry will have the votes to be elected president. See http://www.electoral-vote.com/. Correction: Polling in each state shows that George Bush will have the votes to be elected President. See: http://www.electionprojection.com Your site uses a single poll to project the winner...and he seems to arbitrarily pick the most favorable poll for Kerry. For instance, today's Mason-Dixon and Rasmussen polls showed Bush ahead in Florida by 4 points and 1 point, respectively. Zogby shows Kerry up 2. Who does the webmaster of electoral-vote.com give Florida to? Kerry...based solely on Zogby's poll. www.electionprojection.com uses an average of the major polls. So does www.realclearpolitics.com ...and if you take an average of the major polls, Bush is leading in the popular vote *and* the Electoral College. In fact, if you look at the electoral-vote.com site where he uses *averaged* data, you'll see that Bush is leading even at electoral-vote.com. See: http://www.electoral-vote.com/fin/oct31z.html |
#7
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"Harry Krause" wrote in message ... NOYB wrote: "Snafu" wrote in message ... The poll used to project a state on www.electoral-vote.com is the latest poll based on the average of the range of dates on which the survey was taken. He's very clear about that. He's lying and you believed it. Check for yourself. The Mason-Dixon poll is more current than the Zogby poll, even when you average the range of dates. Mason-Dixon has Bush up 4 in Florida, and up 1 in Minnesota (it's right there in the first table on his website). Your guy uses Zogby's numbers for both states...thus giving both states to Kerry. What a farce! Last week Zogby was your favorite pollster. Silly boy. No. I posted Zogby's numbers for you, Harry, since he seems to be the only pollster you'll believe. If that's the case, then your boy Kerry is in trouble. This election is about ebbs and flows for each campaign. Zogby uses a 3-day rolling average tracking poll. For today's poll, he's using data from the 29th, 30th, and 31st...and has dropped Thursday Oct. 28th's results off the average. And guess what? Bush actually gained from an uptick in his favor. That means Bush's number have been improving while Kerry's are dropping. By tomorrow morning, my prediciton is that Zogby will have Bush up 3...which is exactly what Rove is predicting. I'm a little more optimistic and think Bush will the popular vote by 4 points. You're really putting too much of your cold heart into these last-minute polls. The election is a dead heat. What matters Tuesday is voter turnout. Not really. I think Zogby's weighting is flawed, but his tracking polls at least show consistent trends in the polls. There is no doubt that Kerry had better momentum (at least relative to the week before) going into the weekend...but Bush has better momentum heading into eleciton day. Got any links to real polls along the I-4 Corridor? I don't know...and even if there were, I don't that that any any of the locally-sponsored polls are worth a damn. Most showed a statistical dead-heat between Jeb and McBride heading into the 2002 election...and Jeb won by 13 points. |
#8
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"Jon Smithe" wrote in message news:TEhhd.551890$8_6.82393@attbi_s04... NOYB, This is a close race, the margin of error is higher than the spread between the candidates. The election will go to whomever is able to get out the votes. IMO, the polls which use projected poltical party afffiliation are wrong. They are under the assumption that people will turn out just as they have in the past: 39% Democrats, 35% Republicans, and 26% Independent. I believe there's been a pretty strong shift to the right in this country over the past 4 years, and that registered Republicans will outnumber registered Democrats (or at least be even) at the polls tomorrow. If they're so much as even, then all of the polls that use weighting are wrong...to the tune of 2-3 points. That's why I'm predicting Bush wins the popular vote by 4 points. |
#9
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"NOYB" wrote in message ink.net... If they're so much as even, then all of the polls that use weighting are wrong...to the tune of 2-3 points. That's why I'm predicting Bush wins the popular vote by 4 points. You might be correct, but no one in the business of projecting voter turnout can accurately predict which candidate will do the best job of getting out the vote. This election will result in a higher than average voter turnout. Historically, high voter turnout has benefited the democratic candidates, but it might change, but I think your prediction is mostly based upon hope and not facts. I think the aggressive campaign to get young voters registered and have them vote on Tuesday will have a major impact on the results. Again, from what I have seen, this should benefit Kerry. Since the Repub. will probably still control both houses of Congress, if Kerry wins he will have to work with Congress on any get any bills through Congress. |
#10
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"Jonathan Smithers" wrote in message news:uishd.554848$8_6.215592@attbi_s04... "NOYB" wrote in message ink.net... If they're so much as even, then all of the polls that use weighting are wrong...to the tune of 2-3 points. That's why I'm predicting Bush wins the popular vote by 4 points. You might be correct, but no one in the business of projecting voter turnout can accurately predict which candidate will do the best job of getting out the vote. This election will result in a higher than average voter turnout. Historically, high voter turnout has benefited the democratic candidates, but it might change, but I think your prediction is mostly based upon hope and not facts. The Republican GOTV changed dramatically after the 2000 election......as seen by the 2002 gain in house seats.....which bucked the trend of the opposition party gaining seats. I think the aggressive campaign to get young voters registered and have them vote on Tuesday will have a major impact on the results. Again, from what I have seen, this should benefit Kerry. Since the Repub. will probably still control both houses of Congress, if Kerry wins he will have to work with Congress on any get any bills through Congress. |
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