The poll used to project a state on www.electoral-vote.com is the latest
poll based on the average of the range of dates on which the survey was
taken. He's very clear about that. That doesn't seem arbitrary to me.

As was demonstrated in 2000, popular vote totals don't mean anything. I
think the election is so close it can go either way. We'll see how close it
is on Tuesday night.


"NOYB" wrote in message
...

"Snafu" wrote in message
...
The only numbers that will matter Tuesday night are the Electoral
College
results. One of the candidates will need 270 votes to be elected.
Polling
in each state shows that John Kerry will have the votes to be elected
president. See http://www.electoral-vote.com/.


Correction:
Polling in each state shows that George Bush will have the votes to be
elected President.

See: http://www.electionprojection.com

Your site uses a single poll to project the winner...and he seems to
arbitrarily pick the most favorable poll for Kerry. For instance, today's
Mason-Dixon and Rasmussen polls showed Bush ahead in Florida by 4 points
and
1 point, respectively. Zogby shows Kerry up 2. Who does the webmaster of
electoral-vote.com give Florida to? Kerry...based solely on Zogby's poll.

www.electionprojection.com uses an average of the major polls. So does
www.realclearpolitics.com ...and if you take an average of the major
polls,
Bush is leading in the popular vote *and* the Electoral College.

In fact, if you look at the electoral-vote.com site where he uses
*averaged*
data, you'll see that Bush is leading even at electoral-vote.com.

See: http://www.electoral-vote.com/fin/oct31z.html