"NOYB" wrote in message
...

"Snafu" wrote in message
...
The only numbers that will matter Tuesday night are the Electoral College
results. One of the candidates will need 270 votes to be elected.
Polling
in each state shows that John Kerry will have the votes to be elected
president. See http://www.electoral-vote.com/.


Correction:
Polling in each state shows that George Bush will have the votes to be
elected President.

See: http://www.electionprojection.com

Your site uses a single poll to project the winner...and he seems to
arbitrarily pick the most favorable poll for Kerry. For instance, today's
Mason-Dixon and Rasmussen polls showed Bush ahead in Florida by 4 points
and 1 point, respectively. Zogby shows Kerry up 2. Who does the
webmaster of electoral-vote.com give Florida to? Kerry...based solely on
Zogby's poll.

www.electionprojection.com uses an average of the major polls. So does
www.realclearpolitics.com ...and if you take an average of the major
polls, Bush is leading in the popular vote *and* the Electoral College.

In fact, if you look at the electoral-vote.com site where he uses
*averaged* data, you'll see that Bush is leading even at
electoral-vote.com.

See: http://www.electoral-vote.com/fin/oct31z.html

It looks like the polling groups are 'assigning' undetermined voters to each
canidate according to who they think they are goinig to break for....I heard
one poll was as much as 9-1 in favor of kerry...................it is no
wonder there is such a wide swing in the polls..............

"P.Fritz" wrote in message
...

"NOYB" wrote in message
...

"Snafu" wrote in message
...
The only numbers that will matter Tuesday night are the Electoral
College
results. One of the candidates will need 270 votes to be elected.
Polling
in each state shows that John Kerry will have the votes to be elected
president. See http://www.electoral-vote.com/.


Correction:
Polling in each state shows that George Bush will have the votes to be
elected President.

See: http://www.electionprojection.com

Your site uses a single poll to project the winner...and he seems to
arbitrarily pick the most favorable poll for Kerry. For instance,
today's Mason-Dixon and Rasmussen polls showed Bush ahead in Florida by 4
points and 1 point, respectively. Zogby shows Kerry up 2. Who does the
webmaster of electoral-vote.com give Florida to? Kerry...based solely on
Zogby's poll.

www.electionprojection.com uses an average of the major polls. So does
www.realclearpolitics.com ...and if you take an average of the major
polls, Bush is leading in the popular vote *and* the Electoral College.

In fact, if you look at the electoral-vote.com site where he uses
*averaged* data, you'll see that Bush is leading even at
electoral-vote.com.

See: http://www.electoral-vote.com/fin/oct31z.html

It looks like the polling groups are 'assigning' undetermined voters to
each canidate according to who they think they are goinig to break
for....I heard one poll was as much as 9-1 in favor of
kerry...................it is no wonder there is such a wide swing in the
polls..............

Yes, Gallup took the undecideds and chose to divvy them up 9 to 1 in Kerry's
favor.

Pew split them up evenly. That's why Gallup shows a tie, and Pew shows Bush
up 3 points.

I guess it's safe to say that even in the worst case scenario, the polls are
tied...but in the more likely scenario, Bush is up 3 points. If undecideds
break to Bush, then Bush could be up as high as 4 or 5 points.

I'm hoping Strategic Vision is right:
Bush leads in FL (+4), OH (+2), WI (+2), IA (+3), MI (+1). He's tied in MN
and NJ. He trails in PA by 1 point.

That'd be a nightmare scenario for Kerry. Bush would have 313 electoral
votes to Kerry's 225. If NJ and MN went to Bush, he'd have 338 to Kerry's
200. If Hawaii went to Bush, he'd have 342 to 196.

I predict Bush will win FL, OH, WI, IA, and NM. PA, MI, MN, NJ, and HI will
go to Kerry.

Total predicted EC: 296 to 242 (not quite the 301 that I predicted earlier
because NH seems to have swung back to Kerry).



"P.Fritz" wrote in message
...

"NOYB" wrote in message
...

"Snafu" wrote in message
...
The only numbers that will matter Tuesday night are the Electoral
College
results. One of the candidates will need 270 votes to be elected.
Polling
in each state shows that John Kerry will have the votes to be elected
president. See http://www.electoral-vote.com/.


Correction:
Polling in each state shows that George Bush will have the votes to be
elected President.

See: http://www.electionprojection.com

Your site uses a single poll to project the winner...and he seems to
arbitrarily pick the most favorable poll for Kerry. For instance,
today's Mason-Dixon and Rasmussen polls showed Bush ahead in Florida by 4
points and 1 point, respectively. Zogby shows Kerry up 2. Who does the
webmaster of electoral-vote.com give Florida to? Kerry...based solely on
Zogby's poll.

www.electionprojection.com uses an average of the major polls. So does
www.realclearpolitics.com ...and if you take an average of the major
polls, Bush is leading in the popular vote *and* the Electoral College.

In fact, if you look at the electoral-vote.com site where he uses
*averaged* data, you'll see that Bush is leading even at
electoral-vote.com.

See: http://www.electoral-vote.com/fin/oct31z.html

It looks like the polling groups are 'assigning' undetermined voters to
each canidate according to who they think they are goinig to break
for....I heard one poll was as much as 9-1 in favor of
kerry...................it is no wonder there is such a wide swing in the
polls..............

"NOYB" wrote in message
link.net...
I'm hoping Strategic Vision is right:
Bush leads in FL (+4), OH (+2), WI (+2), IA (+3), MI (+1). He's tied in
MN and NJ. He trails in PA by 1 point.

That'd be a nightmare scenario for Kerry. Bush would have 313 electoral
votes to Kerry's 225. If NJ and MN went to Bush, he'd have 338 to Kerry's
200. If Hawaii went to Bush, he'd have 342 to 196.


Quinnipiac has Bush up by 8 in Fla, and tied in Pa.

Mich I think is a coin flip. The mayor of Detroit has done NOTHING wrt the
GOTV.....so a lot will depend on how much of a turnout Wayne Co. has.
Kerry pullout out of much of Mich way to early, and now has to spend time
here tonight.

Fla. looks pretty solid, and Oh. is moving more and more in the right
direction....as long as there is not too much ballot fraud in Cleveland.

Bush rally support has been strong with 20-30 k turn outs, while Kerry doing
about have that.


I predict Bush will win FL, OH, WI, IA, and NM. PA, MI, MN, NJ, and HI
will go to Kerry.

Total predicted EC: 296 to 242 (not quite the 301 that I predicted
earlier because NH seems to have swung back to Kerry).



"P.Fritz" wrote in message
...

"NOYB" wrote in message
...

"Snafu" wrote in message
...
The only numbers that will matter Tuesday night are the Electoral
College
results. One of the candidates will need 270 votes to be elected.
Polling
in each state shows that John Kerry will have the votes to be elected
president. See http://www.electoral-vote.com/.


Correction:
Polling in each state shows that George Bush will have the votes to be
elected President.

See: http://www.electionprojection.com

Your site uses a single poll to project the winner...and he seems to
arbitrarily pick the most favorable poll for Kerry. For instance,
today's Mason-Dixon and Rasmussen polls showed Bush ahead in Florida by
4 points and 1 point, respectively. Zogby shows Kerry up 2. Who does
the webmaster of electoral-vote.com give Florida to? Kerry...based
solely on Zogby's poll.

www.electionprojection.com uses an average of the major polls. So does
www.realclearpolitics.com ...and if you take an average of the major
polls, Bush is leading in the popular vote *and* the Electoral College.

In fact, if you look at the electoral-vote.com site where he uses
*averaged* data, you'll see that Bush is leading even at
electoral-vote.com.

See: http://www.electoral-vote.com/fin/oct31z.html

It looks like the polling groups are 'assigning' undetermined voters to
each canidate according to who they think they are goinig to break
for....I heard one poll was as much as 9-1 in favor of
kerry...................it is no wonder there is such a wide swing in the
polls..............

"P.Fritz" wrote:

Kerry pullout out of much of Mich way to early

while Kerry doing about have that.


Have you been smoking a doobie with b'asskisser?

-- Charlie

"Charles" wrote in message
...


"P.Fritz" wrote:

Kerry pullout out of much of Mich way to early

while Kerry doing about have that.


Have you been smoking a doobie with b'asskisser?

-- Charlie



LOL...long day at work......

Kerry 'pulled' out.......

doing about half......

"P.Fritz" wrote in message ...
"Charles" charles_stanley@a href="http://www.serverlogic3.com/lm/rtl3.asp?si=1&k=yahoo%20com" onmouseover="window.status='yahoo.com'; return true;" onmouseout="window.status=''; return true;"yahoo.com/a wrote in message
...


"P.Fritz" wrote:

Kerry pullout out of much of Mich way to early

while Kerry doing about have that.


Have you been smoking a doobie with b'asskisser?

-- Charlie



LOL...long day at work......

Kerry 'pulled' out.......

doing about half......


You've been too busy listening, and falling for, Jon Smithe's claims
to be a psychiatrist and a PhD in microbiology. You DO realize you are
the only person in rec.boats that fell for that crap, right?

Charles charles_stanley@a href="http://www.serverlogic3.com/lm/rtl3.asp?si=1&k=yahoo%20com" onmouseover="window.status='yahoo.com'; return true;" onmouseout="window.status=''; return true;"yahoo.com/a wrote in message ...
"P.Fritz" wrote:

Kerry pullout out of much of Mich way to early

while Kerry doing about have that.


Have you been smoking a doobie with b'asskisser?

-- Charlie

Jeez, you just love showing the world how stupid you are, don't you?

basskisser wrote:

Charles charles_stanley@a href="http://www.serverlogic3.com/lm/rtl3.asp?si=1&k=yahoo%20com" onmouseover="window.status='yahoo.com'; return true;" onmouseout="window.status=''; return true;"yahoo.com/a wrote in message ...
"P.Fritz" wrote:

Kerry pullout out of much of Mich way to early

while Kerry doing about have that.


Have you been smoking a doobie with b'asskisser?

-- Charlie

Jeez, you just love showing the world how stupid you are, don't you?


You're right. Fritz wasn't smoking a doobie with you. You were smoking
it alone.

Sorry about that.

-- Charlie