"NOYB" wrote in message
news

"P.Fritz" wrote in message
...

"J. Smithers" wrote in message
news:Fvshd.449874$mD.384629@attbi_s02...
Fritz,
You may be correct, but would you or NYOB, be willing to bet a thousand
dollars on the GOTV benefiting the Repub. or even Bush winning? That is
a high risk bet in anyone's mind. Remember the odds the bookmakers are
giving do not reflect anything except the way people are betting. Their
objective with the spread and odds, is to get 50% to bet one way and 50%
to bet the other way.

To many variables, but to the point that NYOB was making, things have
changed since 2000, and the pollsters gauging things based on that
election are making mistakes.

The pollsters should look at the trend from the 1996 election to the 2000
election, where the electorate grew more and more Republican...and then
look at the time from the 2000 until the 2002 election, where it became
even more so. That's why guys like Zogby were waaaaay off base with their
2002 predictions. They didn't take into account that there was a change
in the make-up of the electorate...and they're repeating that mistake once
again.

Another telling fact is where Kerry is campaigning.....he's in Mi.
today.....a state that was supposed to be a 'lock' of the dem's.....should
tell you something about the what the party 'internals' are saying. The
number so states Bush needs to hold from the 2000 election, vs the number
that kerry is trying to hold is another telling aspect......yes it could go
the other way, and the media is doing everything it can to spin it as
'close'

Where would this election be if it wasn't for the 15% media spin for
kerry???? That should tell everyone a lot about the future of the democratic
party.