Fritz,
You may be correct, but would you or NYOB, be willing to bet a thousand
dollars on the GOTV benefiting the Repub. or even Bush winning? That is a
high risk bet in anyone's mind. Remember the odds the bookmakers are giving
do not reflect anything except the way people are betting. Their objective
with the spread and odds, is to get 50% to bet one way and 50% to bet the
other way.

"P.Fritz" wrote in message
...

"Jonathan Smithers" wrote in message
news:uishd.554848$8_6.215592@attbi_s04...

"NOYB" wrote in message
ink.net...
If they're so much as even, then all of the polls that use weighting are
wrong...to the tune of
2-3 points. That's why I'm predicting Bush wins the popular vote by 4
points.

You might be correct, but no one in the business of projecting voter
turnout can accurately predict which candidate will do the best job of
getting out the vote. This election will result in a higher than average
voter turnout. Historically, high voter turnout has benefited the
democratic candidates, but it might change, but I think your prediction
is mostly based upon hope and not facts.

The Republican GOTV changed dramatically after the 2000 election......as
seen by the 2002 gain in house seats.....which bucked the trend of the
opposition party gaining seats.


I think the aggressive campaign to get young voters registered and have
them vote on Tuesday will have a major impact on the results. Again,
from what I have seen, this should benefit Kerry. Since the Repub. will
probably still control both houses of Congress, if Kerry wins he will
have to work with Congress on any get any bills through Congress.