Fritz,
You may be correct, but would you or NYOB, be willing to bet a thousand
dollars on the GOTV benefiting the Repub. or even Bush winning? That is a
high risk bet in anyone's mind. Remember the odds the bookmakers are giving
do not reflect anything except the way people are betting. Their objective
with the spread and odds, is to get 50% to bet one way and 50% to bet the
other way.

"P.Fritz" wrote in message
...

"Jonathan Smithers" wrote in message
news:uishd.554848$8_6.215592@attbi_s04...

"NOYB" wrote in message
ink.net...
If they're so much as even, then all of the polls that use weighting are
wrong...to the tune of
2-3 points. That's why I'm predicting Bush wins the popular vote by 4
points.

You might be correct, but no one in the business of projecting voter
turnout can accurately predict which candidate will do the best job of
getting out the vote. This election will result in a higher than average
voter turnout. Historically, high voter turnout has benefited the
democratic candidates, but it might change, but I think your prediction
is mostly based upon hope and not facts.

The Republican GOTV changed dramatically after the 2000 election......as
seen by the 2002 gain in house seats.....which bucked the trend of the
opposition party gaining seats.


I think the aggressive campaign to get young voters registered and have
them vote on Tuesday will have a major impact on the results. Again,
from what I have seen, this should benefit Kerry. Since the Repub. will
probably still control both houses of Congress, if Kerry wins he will
have to work with Congress on any get any bills through Congress.

"J. Smithers" wrote in message
news:Fvshd.449874$mD.384629@attbi_s02...
Fritz,
You may be correct, but would you or NYOB, be willing to bet a thousand
dollars on the GOTV benefiting the Repub. or even Bush winning? That is a
high risk bet in anyone's mind. Remember the odds the bookmakers are
giving do not reflect anything except the way people are betting. Their
objective with the spread and odds, is to get 50% to bet one way and 50%
to bet the other way.

To many variables, but to the point that NYOB was making, things have
changed since 2000, and the pollsters gauging things based on that election
are making mistakes.


"P.Fritz" wrote in message
...

"Jonathan Smithers" wrote in message
news:uishd.554848$8_6.215592@attbi_s04...

"NOYB" wrote in message
ink.net...
If they're so much as even, then all of the polls that use weighting
are wrong...to the tune of
2-3 points. That's why I'm predicting Bush wins the popular vote by 4
points.

You might be correct, but no one in the business of projecting voter
turnout can accurately predict which candidate will do the best job of
getting out the vote. This election will result in a higher than
average voter turnout. Historically, high voter turnout has benefited
the democratic candidates, but it might change, but I think your
prediction is mostly based upon hope and not facts.

The Republican GOTV changed dramatically after the 2000 election......as
seen by the 2002 gain in house seats.....which bucked the trend of the
opposition party gaining seats.


I think the aggressive campaign to get young voters registered and have
them vote on Tuesday will have a major impact on the results. Again,
from what I have seen, this should benefit Kerry. Since the Repub. will
probably still control both houses of Congress, if Kerry wins he will
have to work with Congress on any get any bills through Congress.

"P.Fritz" wrote in message
...

"J. Smithers" wrote in message
news:Fvshd.449874$mD.384629@attbi_s02...
Fritz,
You may be correct, but would you or NYOB, be willing to bet a thousand
dollars on the GOTV benefiting the Repub. or even Bush winning? That is
a high risk bet in anyone's mind. Remember the odds the bookmakers are
giving do not reflect anything except the way people are betting. Their
objective with the spread and odds, is to get 50% to bet one way and 50%
to bet the other way.

To many variables, but to the point that NYOB was making, things have
changed since 2000, and the pollsters gauging things based on that
election are making mistakes.

The pollsters should look at the trend from the 1996 election to the 2000
election, where the electorate grew more and more Republican...and then look
at the time from the 2000 until the 2002 election, where it became even
more so. That's why guys like Zogby were waaaaay off base with their 2002
predictions. They didn't take into account that there was a change in the
make-up of the electorate...and they're repeating that mistake once again.

"NOYB" wrote in message
news

"P.Fritz" wrote in message
...

"J. Smithers" wrote in message
news:Fvshd.449874$mD.384629@attbi_s02...
Fritz,
You may be correct, but would you or NYOB, be willing to bet a thousand
dollars on the GOTV benefiting the Repub. or even Bush winning? That is
a high risk bet in anyone's mind. Remember the odds the bookmakers are
giving do not reflect anything except the way people are betting. Their
objective with the spread and odds, is to get 50% to bet one way and 50%
to bet the other way.

To many variables, but to the point that NYOB was making, things have
changed since 2000, and the pollsters gauging things based on that
election are making mistakes.

The pollsters should look at the trend from the 1996 election to the 2000
election, where the electorate grew more and more Republican...and then
look at the time from the 2000 until the 2002 election, where it became
even more so. That's why guys like Zogby were waaaaay off base with their
2002 predictions. They didn't take into account that there was a change
in the make-up of the electorate...and they're repeating that mistake once
again.

Another telling fact is where Kerry is campaigning.....he's in Mi.
today.....a state that was supposed to be a 'lock' of the dem's.....should
tell you something about the what the party 'internals' are saying. The
number so states Bush needs to hold from the 2000 election, vs the number
that kerry is trying to hold is another telling aspect......yes it could go
the other way, and the media is doing everything it can to spin it as
'close'

Where would this election be if it wasn't for the 15% media spin for
kerry???? That should tell everyone a lot about the future of the democratic
party.

"J. Smithers" wrote in message
news:Fvshd.449874$mD.384629@attbi_s02...
Fritz,
You may be correct, but would you or NYOB, be willing to bet a thousand
dollars on the GOTV benefiting the Repub. or even Bush winning?

I'd bet a grand on Bush winning...as long as I could deduct it againt the
large tax hike that would be coming my way should Kerry win.

I am not sure if that will get by the IRS. ; )

Nice try though.

"NOYB" wrote in message
link.net...

"J. Smithers" wrote in message
news:Fvshd.449874$mD.384629@attbi_s02...
Fritz,
You may be correct, but would you or NYOB, be willing to bet a thousand
dollars on the GOTV benefiting the Repub. or even Bush winning?

I'd bet a grand on Bush winning...as long as I could deduct it againt the
large tax hike that would be coming my way should Kerry win.