"Snafu" wrote in message
...
The only numbers that will matter Tuesday night are the Electoral College
results. One of the candidates will need 270 votes to be elected.
Polling
in each state shows that John Kerry will have the votes to be elected
president. See http://www.electoral-vote.com/.


Correction:
Polling in each state shows that George Bush will have the votes to be
elected President.

See: http://www.electionprojection.com

Your site uses a single poll to project the winner...and he seems to
arbitrarily pick the most favorable poll for Kerry. For instance, today's
Mason-Dixon and Rasmussen polls showed Bush ahead in Florida by 4 points and
1 point, respectively. Zogby shows Kerry up 2. Who does the webmaster of
electoral-vote.com give Florida to? Kerry...based solely on Zogby's poll.

www.electionprojection.com uses an average of the major polls. So does
www.realclearpolitics.com ...and if you take an average of the major polls,
Bush is leading in the popular vote *and* the Electoral College.

In fact, if you look at the electoral-vote.com site where he uses *averaged*
data, you'll see that Bush is leading even at electoral-vote.com.

See: http://www.electoral-vote.com/fin/oct31z.html

The poll used to project a state on www.electoral-vote.com is the latest
poll based on the average of the range of dates on which the survey was
taken. He's very clear about that. That doesn't seem arbitrary to me.

As was demonstrated in 2000, popular vote totals don't mean anything. I
think the election is so close it can go either way. We'll see how close it
is on Tuesday night.


"NOYB" wrote in message
...

"Snafu" wrote in message
...
The only numbers that will matter Tuesday night are the Electoral
College
results. One of the candidates will need 270 votes to be elected.
Polling
in each state shows that John Kerry will have the votes to be elected
president. See http://www.electoral-vote.com/.


Correction:
Polling in each state shows that George Bush will have the votes to be
elected President.

See: http://www.electionprojection.com

Your site uses a single poll to project the winner...and he seems to
arbitrarily pick the most favorable poll for Kerry. For instance, today's
Mason-Dixon and Rasmussen polls showed Bush ahead in Florida by 4 points
and
1 point, respectively. Zogby shows Kerry up 2. Who does the webmaster of
electoral-vote.com give Florida to? Kerry...based solely on Zogby's poll.

www.electionprojection.com uses an average of the major polls. So does
www.realclearpolitics.com ...and if you take an average of the major
polls,
Bush is leading in the popular vote *and* the Electoral College.

In fact, if you look at the electoral-vote.com site where he uses
*averaged*
data, you'll see that Bush is leading even at electoral-vote.com.

See: http://www.electoral-vote.com/fin/oct31z.html

"Snafu" wrote in message
...
The poll used to project a state on www.electoral-vote.com is the latest
poll based on the average of the range of dates on which the survey was
taken. He's very clear about that.

He's lying and you believed it. Check for yourself. The Mason-Dixon poll
is more current than the Zogby poll, even when you average the range of
dates. Mason-Dixon has Bush up 4 in Florida, and up 1 in Minnesota (it's
right there in the first table on his website). Your guy uses Zogby's
numbers for both states...thus giving both states to Kerry. What a farce!





That doesn't seem arbitrary to me.

Now does it?



As was demonstrated in 2000, popular vote totals don't mean anything.

I'm talking about EC votes. If you average all of the major polls, Bush has
more EC votes. If you take just Zogby's numbers, Kerry has more EC votes.
Since Gallup, Rasmussen, and Mason-Dixon are all more recent than Zogby's
(by 1 day), electoral-vote ought to be using the numbers from those
pollsters.

I'll stick with realclearpolitics.com or electionprojection.com since both
of those sites take an average of the major polls. I'll also look at
electoral-vote.com's link and click on the "Averaged" data map:
http://www.electoral-vote.com/fin/oct31z.html

NOYB,
This is a close race, the margin of error is higher than the spread between
the candidates. The election will go to whomever is able to get out the
votes.


"NOYB" wrote in message
...

"Snafu" wrote in message
...
The only numbers that will matter Tuesday night are the Electoral College
results. One of the candidates will need 270 votes to be elected.
Polling
in each state shows that John Kerry will have the votes to be elected
president. See http://www.electoral-vote.com/.


Correction:
Polling in each state shows that George Bush will have the votes to be
elected President.

See: http://www.electionprojection.com

Your site uses a single poll to project the winner...and he seems to
arbitrarily pick the most favorable poll for Kerry. For instance, today's
Mason-Dixon and Rasmussen polls showed Bush ahead in Florida by 4 points
and 1 point, respectively. Zogby shows Kerry up 2. Who does the
webmaster of electoral-vote.com give Florida to? Kerry...based solely on
Zogby's poll.

www.electionprojection.com uses an average of the major polls. So does
www.realclearpolitics.com ...and if you take an average of the major
polls, Bush is leading in the popular vote *and* the Electoral College.

In fact, if you look at the electoral-vote.com site where he uses
*averaged* data, you'll see that Bush is leading even at
electoral-vote.com.

See: http://www.electoral-vote.com/fin/oct31z.html

"Jon Smithe" wrote in message
news:TEhhd.551890$8_6.82393@attbi_s04...
NOYB,
This is a close race, the margin of error is higher than the spread
between the candidates. The election will go to whomever is able to get
out the votes.

IMO, the polls which use projected poltical party afffiliation are wrong.
They are under the assumption that people will turn out just as they have in
the past:
39% Democrats, 35% Republicans, and 26% Independent. I believe there's been
a
pretty strong shift to the right in this country over the past 4 years, and
that registered
Republicans will outnumber registered Democrats (or at least be even) at the
polls tomorrow.

If they're so much as even, then all of the polls that use weighting are
wrong...to the tune of
2-3 points. That's why I'm predicting Bush wins the popular vote by 4
points.

"NOYB" wrote in message
ink.net...
If they're so much as even, then all of the polls that use weighting are
wrong...to the tune of
2-3 points. That's why I'm predicting Bush wins the popular vote by 4
points.

You might be correct, but no one in the business of projecting voter turnout
can accurately predict which candidate will do the best job of getting out
the vote. This election will result in a higher than average voter turnout.
Historically, high voter turnout has benefited the democratic candidates,
but it might change, but I think your prediction is mostly based upon hope
and not facts.

I think the aggressive campaign to get young voters registered and have them
vote on Tuesday will have a major impact on the results. Again, from what I
have seen, this should benefit Kerry. Since the Repub. will probably still
control both houses of Congress, if Kerry wins he will have to work with
Congress on any get any bills through Congress.

"Jonathan Smithers" wrote in message
news:uishd.554848$8_6.215592@attbi_s04...

"NOYB" wrote in message
ink.net...
If they're so much as even, then all of the polls that use weighting are
wrong...to the tune of
2-3 points. That's why I'm predicting Bush wins the popular vote by 4
points.

You might be correct, but no one in the business of projecting voter
turnout can accurately predict which candidate will do the best job of
getting out the vote. This election will result in a higher than average
voter turnout. Historically, high voter turnout has benefited the
democratic candidates, but it might change, but I think your prediction is
mostly based upon hope and not facts.

The Republican GOTV changed dramatically after the 2000 election......as
seen by the 2002 gain in house seats.....which bucked the trend of the
opposition party gaining seats.


I think the aggressive campaign to get young voters registered and have
them vote on Tuesday will have a major impact on the results. Again, from
what I have seen, this should benefit Kerry. Since the Repub. will
probably still control both houses of Congress, if Kerry wins he will have
to work with Congress on any get any bills through Congress.

Fritz,
You may be correct, but would you or NYOB, be willing to bet a thousand
dollars on the GOTV benefiting the Repub. or even Bush winning? That is a
high risk bet in anyone's mind. Remember the odds the bookmakers are giving
do not reflect anything except the way people are betting. Their objective
with the spread and odds, is to get 50% to bet one way and 50% to bet the
other way.

"P.Fritz" wrote in message
...

"Jonathan Smithers" wrote in message
news:uishd.554848$8_6.215592@attbi_s04...

"NOYB" wrote in message
ink.net...
If they're so much as even, then all of the polls that use weighting are
wrong...to the tune of
2-3 points. That's why I'm predicting Bush wins the popular vote by 4
points.

You might be correct, but no one in the business of projecting voter
turnout can accurately predict which candidate will do the best job of
getting out the vote. This election will result in a higher than average
voter turnout. Historically, high voter turnout has benefited the
democratic candidates, but it might change, but I think your prediction
is mostly based upon hope and not facts.

The Republican GOTV changed dramatically after the 2000 election......as
seen by the 2002 gain in house seats.....which bucked the trend of the
opposition party gaining seats.


I think the aggressive campaign to get young voters registered and have
them vote on Tuesday will have a major impact on the results. Again,
from what I have seen, this should benefit Kerry. Since the Repub. will
probably still control both houses of Congress, if Kerry wins he will
have to work with Congress on any get any bills through Congress.

"J. Smithers" wrote in message
news:Fvshd.449874$mD.384629@attbi_s02...
Fritz,
You may be correct, but would you or NYOB, be willing to bet a thousand
dollars on the GOTV benefiting the Repub. or even Bush winning? That is a
high risk bet in anyone's mind. Remember the odds the bookmakers are
giving do not reflect anything except the way people are betting. Their
objective with the spread and odds, is to get 50% to bet one way and 50%
to bet the other way.

To many variables, but to the point that NYOB was making, things have
changed since 2000, and the pollsters gauging things based on that election
are making mistakes.


"P.Fritz" wrote in message
...

"Jonathan Smithers" wrote in message
news:uishd.554848$8_6.215592@attbi_s04...

"NOYB" wrote in message
ink.net...
If they're so much as even, then all of the polls that use weighting
are wrong...to the tune of
2-3 points. That's why I'm predicting Bush wins the popular vote by 4
points.

You might be correct, but no one in the business of projecting voter
turnout can accurately predict which candidate will do the best job of
getting out the vote. This election will result in a higher than
average voter turnout. Historically, high voter turnout has benefited
the democratic candidates, but it might change, but I think your
prediction is mostly based upon hope and not facts.

The Republican GOTV changed dramatically after the 2000 election......as
seen by the 2002 gain in house seats.....which bucked the trend of the
opposition party gaining seats.


I think the aggressive campaign to get young voters registered and have
them vote on Tuesday will have a major impact on the results. Again,
from what I have seen, this should benefit Kerry. Since the Repub. will
probably still control both houses of Congress, if Kerry wins he will
have to work with Congress on any get any bills through Congress.

"J. Smithers" wrote in message
news:Fvshd.449874$mD.384629@attbi_s02...
Fritz,
You may be correct, but would you or NYOB, be willing to bet a thousand
dollars on the GOTV benefiting the Repub. or even Bush winning?

I'd bet a grand on Bush winning...as long as I could deduct it againt the
large tax hike that would be coming my way should Kerry win.