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Calculating S.S. benefit at 62 vs 66
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Calculating S.S. benefit at 62 vs 66
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#3
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Calculating S.S. benefit at 62 vs 66
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#4
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Calculating S.S. benefit at 62 vs 66
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#6
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Calculating S.S. benefit at 62 vs 66
On Tue, 12 Aug 2014 02:23:59 -0400, wrote:
if you have 30 million boomers liquidating their 401ks === I don't think liquidate is the right description. Those who have made good investment decisions can do well with the just dividend stream and capital gains, leaving the principal amount mostly untouched. |
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#7
posted to rec.boats
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Calculating S.S. benefit at 62 vs 66
Wayne.B wrote:
On Tue, 12 Aug 2014 02:23:59 -0400, wrote: if you have 30 million boomers liquidating their 401ks === I don't think liquidate is the right description. Those who have made good investment decisions can do well with the just dividend stream and capital gains, leaving the principal amount mostly untouched. The problem, is most of those retirees have little actual money / income. So they will have to cash in the retirement accounts for living. I read somewhere that the average savings of a 50 year is less the $50,000. They are not going to get to the amount of savings by 66 to live off of the dividend stream. In other words, most have made either bad investment decisions, or saved little, or both. Those people who have driven around in leased Bimmers and MB's and living the good life on current income are probably a majority. Or they were lower income workers. Janitors, etc. |
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#8
posted to rec.boats
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Calculating S.S. benefit at 62 vs 66
On 8/12/14, 2:19 PM, wrote:
On Tue, 12 Aug 2014 11:54:17 -0500, Califbill wrote: Wayne.B wrote: On Tue, 12 Aug 2014 02:23:59 -0400, wrote: if you have 30 million boomers liquidating their 401ks === I don't think liquidate is the right description. Those who have made good investment decisions can do well with the just dividend stream and capital gains, leaving the principal amount mostly untouched. The problem, is most of those retirees have little actual money / income. So they will have to cash in the retirement accounts for living. I read somewhere that the average savings of a 50 year is less the $50,000. They are not going to get to the amount of savings by 66 to live off of the dividend stream. In other words, most have made either bad investment decisions, or saved little, or both. Those people who have driven around in leased Bimmers and MB's and living the good life on current income are probably a majority. Or they were lower income workers. Janitors, etc. That is my thinking and to make things worse, these people will be selling into a bear market, just to pay the rent. That is a perpetual motion market crash in the making. Every correction will be pushed down farther than it normally would be by these subsistence sellers. OTOH the rich will certainly have the opportunity to get richer since they can sit on the side lines with a big bag of money and scoop up the bargains when they think they see a bottom. You just have to be sure you are invested in a fund with large cash reserves and hope it is enough to get them over the hard times without selling off stocks to cover withdrawals. For me, I am already starting to take my profits on this bubble market we are looking at right now. I think this bubble is going to pop. It won't happen in my lifetime, but this country is headed for a real revolution. Whether is is peaceful or violent will only be revealed in the future. Corporationists, greed, banksters and the trend to find the cheapest labor for everything means the death of the middle class and the end of the possibility of lower income groups being able to fight their way into it. No more decent jobs with benefits, eventually no more Social Security, no more nothing for the vast majority of Americans beyond bleak subsistence living. Municipal services being privatized, jails privatized, police forces gearing up with assault vehicles and weaponry, and ignorant Americans thinking illegal Central and South American immigrants are the cause of civilization's decline. It's a perfect scenario for heads on pikes of the Koch Brothers types and a real restructuring of America. |
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#9
posted to rec.boats
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Calculating S.S. benefit at 62 vs 66
In article ,
says... On Tue, 12 Aug 2014 00:35:02 -0400, Wayne.B wrote: On Mon, 11 Aug 2014 13:16:58 -0400, wrote: The stocks are not just paper, they represent actual ownership of some darn good companies and a claim on their earnings and free cash flow. I know that is the theory but there is a lot of air under most of the stock prices these days.This has a certain Ponzi aspect too. As long as more money coming in than is taken out, it does OK. If there is a significant net loss of money coming into the market it will crash pretty fast. === You're entitled to your opinion of course, and there are no doubt some over inflated companies out there along with a handfull of outright frauds not yet discovered. On the other hand there are also some real captains of industry who make real products and sell them worldwide. I'm thinking of names like GE, IBM, Intel, Apple, Cisco, etc. These are companies that not only make solid products and sell them well, but they also have provable positive cash flows and pay dividends. There are many others of course, and there are also many companies in sectors such as energy and transportation with very solid fundamentals and positive cash flows. Cash flow is a good indicator because it is real, easy to measure and not easily subject to accounting slight of hand. I just think the whole market is way overdue for a correction no matter what and if you have 30 million boomers liquidating their 401ks there will be an impact on the market. What makes you think 30m boomers have 401k's? That's ridiculous. The total 401k participation is about 50 million. And why would they suddenly liquidate it? Besides, most retirees depend on SS, and the wealthy ones pass equities to their heirs. And the 401k market is a small part of total equities from what I can find out. Funny how the numbers business guards their numbers. |
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#10
posted to rec.boats
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Calculating S.S. benefit at 62 vs 66
On 8/16/2014 1:45 AM, Boating All Out wrote:
In article , says... On Tue, 12 Aug 2014 00:35:02 -0400, Wayne.B wrote: On Mon, 11 Aug 2014 13:16:58 -0400, wrote: The stocks are not just paper, they represent actual ownership of some darn good companies and a claim on their earnings and free cash flow. I know that is the theory but there is a lot of air under most of the stock prices these days.This has a certain Ponzi aspect too. As long as more money coming in than is taken out, it does OK. If there is a significant net loss of money coming into the market it will crash pretty fast. === You're entitled to your opinion of course, and there are no doubt some over inflated companies out there along with a handfull of outright frauds not yet discovered. On the other hand there are also some real captains of industry who make real products and sell them worldwide. I'm thinking of names like GE, IBM, Intel, Apple, Cisco, etc. These are companies that not only make solid products and sell them well, but they also have provable positive cash flows and pay dividends. There are many others of course, and there are also many companies in sectors such as energy and transportation with very solid fundamentals and positive cash flows. Cash flow is a good indicator because it is real, easy to measure and not easily subject to accounting slight of hand. I just think the whole market is way overdue for a correction no matter what and if you have 30 million boomers liquidating their 401ks there will be an impact on the market. What makes you think 30m boomers have 401k's? That's ridiculous. The total 401k participation is about 50 million. And why would they suddenly liquidate it? Besides, most retirees depend on SS, and the wealthy ones pass equities to their heirs. And the 401k market is a small part of total equities from what I can find out. Funny how the numbers business guards their numbers. The grand daddy of al mutual funds is 60% held in 401K plans. The Gubmint requires systematic liquidation beginning at age 70 1/2 -- "I predict future happiness for Americans if they can prevent the government from wasting the labors of the people under the pretense of taking care of them". Thomas Jefferson |
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