"Canuck57" wrote in message
...
On 24/01/2010 3:57 PM, wrote:
On Sun, 24 Jan 2010 15:02:26 -0500,
wrote:

Chinese are tightening their credit. I thinks Obama's problems just
got
worse. Especially if China wants some of that maturing US debt paid
off.


What happens if the USA just says, "No"?

Just curious.

Short answer ...
The dollar would be devalued and oil would cost more, among other
things.

Good answer, hyper inflation due to currency devaluation. And I really
think that is the liberal game plan. Has been for over 2 years as nothing
else explains the mad-hatter direction of government other than pure
insanity, which may be true all the same. Here goes my view on how
government is thinking on this depression.

Government does not sees the problem as people not having money, they see
homes in a recession pricing. It makes it attractive for a family to toss
the keys to the banks and walk. Growth is needed to hide losses and screw
ups.

Part of the plan is getting people to put all the money in seemingly safe
places, T-bills, money market, cash places. At ultra low interest rates.

Now lets say let the dollar fall by say 75% in a rapid period of time, too
fast to move out of cash and sell t-bills etc. Just stop honoring debt,
just like Iceland just did. Who knows, they could be the pilot group.

So if one woke up and oil went from $80 barrel to $320 a barrel, the
government just devlaued it's $12 trillion dollar debt by 75%, as people
get wage increases in the inflation cycle, and money is stuck in low
interest, the currency debt and fiscal debt becomes depreciated on the
backs of people with money.

It is why I am in pure cash (can buy gold/stock/real-esate etc) on a
click. But will not touch a morgage mutual, t-bill or cd/gic with a 10
foot poll. I view lending right now as toxic. Even if it is lending to
government. The only way I would lend to government is with an infation
clause and 5% premium without taxation. Otherwie a brick of gold looks
pretty good.

Lets take a scenario, person A buys $1000 of oil, say 12.5 barrels of it.
Person B buys a T-bill at a meaningless interest rate. Then the dollar
plumets as debt isn't honored against the currency itself.

Person A still has 12.5 barels of oil worth $4000. Person B has $1000.10
that now can only purchase 1/4 of what it did not too long ago. Value
currency depreciation.

More people will get jobs if it goes far enough as then US goods become
cheap like Chinese ones. Hyper inflation as coffee goes from $10 a tine
to $40, but government doesn't give a damn about retired and people, they
are just to milk for statism. Wages will not keep up.

How this addresses housing is simple. If a home is $200K to build today,
but is selling for $180K, and has a $200K morgage, after inflation it
changes to perhaps $500K to build and $400k to buy. No idiot will oss the
keys for that sweet deal.

To understand government policy, it becomes easy once you realize they are
the biggest meanist delinquent dysfunctional debtors going. A debt monger
mindset and plent of self denial.

Time will tell, but in 2010 some time we should see a big move down in USD
value. Big move actually. Probably in the later hald as the mini recovery
bubble pops.



If you think hyperinflation is coming, claiming that you've got all cash
isn't exactly where you want to be. You should be complete in a precious
metals, since you may not be able to "click" and get it done, as the SEC
would shut down the exchange. Also, you'll need to have the gold or whatever
in your possession to be safe.

Oh, and you're not too bright... if that wasn't obvious.

--
Nom=de=Plume

"thunder" wrote in message
t...
On Sun, 24 Jan 2010 15:02:26 -0500, Eisboch wrote:


What happens if the USA just says, "No"?

Just curious.

It would be one hell of a crash, and 5-10 very rough years, but then...
We'd have to get our own house in order, as no other country would want
to finance our overspending ways. Personally, I don't think it would be
all bad, but there are a lot easier ways to get our house in order. It
would be playing with fire, and you never know how burned we would get.


There would be other international consequences also. It would affect the
totality of the world financial markets, and some countries would not
recover for decades. This alone could prevent our recovery in the time-frame
you mention.

--
Nom=de=Plume

On Jan 24, 4:38*pm, I am Tosk wrote:
In article f59dda3b-def7-4970-a98a-c5314f862444
@h34g2000yqm.googlegroups.com, says...







On Jan 24, 3:02 pm, "Eisboch" wrote:
"Canuck57" wrote in message

...

Chinese are tightening their credit. I thinks Obama's problems just got
worse. Especially if China wants some of that maturing US debt paid off.

What happens if the USA just says, "No"?

Just curious.

Eisboch

They'll quit selling their products here. *That'll show us.

I dare you to walk around your house and find 10 items you need to live
life the way you do.. Then do an Internet search and see if you could
have those items if the Chinese stopped making them or the parts for
them... OK, you might be able to do it if you tried, but if everyone in
the country was trying to buy a pair of socks from the last company in
the US that made them (BTW I don't think anybody here does) we would run
out pretty quickly.

Scotty

A huge part of the problem is the fact that we don't manufacture much
stuff here. IMO, we need to start making stuff here again. Of
course, we can't when unions think that unskilled labor assemblimg an
outlet strip should earn $60k a year.

And if we all bought socks from the last US company making them,
they'd have a banner year, expand, and we'd have the socks we need and
more jobs to boot.

"Jack" wrote in message
...
On Jan 24, 4:38 pm, I am Tosk wrote:
In article f59dda3b-def7-4970-a98a-c5314f862444
@h34g2000yqm.googlegroups.com, says...







On Jan 24, 3:02 pm, "Eisboch" wrote:
"Canuck57" wrote in message

...

Chinese are tightening their credit. I thinks Obama's problems just
got
worse. Especially if China wants some of that maturing US debt paid
off.

What happens if the USA just says, "No"?

Just curious.

Eisboch

They'll quit selling their products here. That'll show us.

I dare you to walk around your house and find 10 items you need to live
life the way you do.. Then do an Internet search and see if you could
have those items if the Chinese stopped making them or the parts for
them... OK, you might be able to do it if you tried, but if everyone in
the country was trying to buy a pair of socks from the last company in
the US that made them (BTW I don't think anybody here does) we would run
out pretty quickly.

Scotty

A huge part of the problem is the fact that we don't manufacture much
stuff here. IMO, we need to start making stuff here again. Of

I agree.

course, we can't when unions think that unskilled labor assemblimg an
outlet strip should earn $60k a year.

What's wrong with them thinking that? Nothing. It's called what the market
will bear.

And if we all bought socks from the last US company making them,
they'd have a banner year, expand, and we'd have the socks we need and
more jobs to boot.

Except that GM/Chrysler designed cars that nobody wanted.


--
Nom=de=Plume

In article fff54e85-9427-4b39-9824-
,
says...

On Jan 24, 4:38*pm, I am Tosk wrote:
In article f59dda3b-def7-4970-a98a-c5314f862444
@h34g2000yqm.googlegroups.com, says...







On Jan 24, 3:02 pm, "Eisboch" wrote:
"Canuck57" wrote in message

...

Chinese are tightening their credit. I thinks Obama's problems just got
worse. Especially if China wants some of that maturing US debt paid off.

What happens if the USA just says, "No"?

Just curious.

Eisboch

They'll quit selling their products here. *That'll show us.

I dare you to walk around your house and find 10 items you need to live
life the way you do.. Then do an Internet search and see if you could
have those items if the Chinese stopped making them or the parts for
them... OK, you might be able to do it if you tried, but if everyone in
the country was trying to buy a pair of socks from the last company in
the US that made them (BTW I don't think anybody here does) we would run
out pretty quickly.

Scotty

A huge part of the problem is the fact that we don't manufacture much
stuff here. IMO, we need to start making stuff here again. Of
course, we can't when unions think that unskilled labor assemblimg an
outlet strip should earn $60k a year.

And if we all bought socks from the last US company making them,
they'd have a banner year, expand, and we'd have the socks we need and
more jobs to boot.

They would never keep up with the demand. Did you know that there is a
city in China that basically makes all the retail socks we buy here in
America and most of the rest of the world. That's how manufacturing
works over there, one city (group) one product.. The whole area is all
about socks, millions and millions of socks. Or sock company wouldn't
last a month without spare parts and new machines from China anyway...

We would have no socks. No problem though, we wouldn't have any shoes
either, pants, shirts, toasters, coffeemakers, coats, tin cans for
food...

They could wipe us out so we better keep paying them and keep ourselves
valuable to them..

Scotty

In article ,
says...

On Sun, 24 Jan 2010 15:57:49 -0800, "nom=de=plume"
wrote:

wrote in message
.. .
On Sun, 24 Jan 2010 11:13:31 -0800, "nom=de=plume"
wrote:

There will be no meaningful recovery until we find a way to replace
all the jobs that we have sent offshore.


Not sure I agree with the "replace all" comment, but I do certainly agree
with the rest of the statement.


I am not sure why you disagree with "all" unless you mean "all plus
the new kids entering the market".
Our economy has been based on the middle class having good jobs. We
really have to start making things here again.
Maybe we should have a telethon to collect money to rebuild the US
infrastructure after we are done in Haiti..



If you use a term such as "all" or "every" it's almost always wrong. Some
jobs won't be replaced.

I agree a lot of auto workers are not going to be making cars but they
could be making other things. I believe wind energy is a boondoggle
but if people are willing to do it, it is not a bad place for factory
workers to work. There are plenty of things we need in the
infrastructure area. We just need to talk people into paying for it.

The roads and bridges are fine, and the dollar for dollar return in
products is not as good when spent on highway maintenance as it would be
in a decent sock factory. It's not the infrastructure that is holding
back our manufacturing. It's the Un..... well, either way, we need to
address the things that are killing the manufacturing base.

Old instructor told me long ago, don't bother with the bee, go for the
stinger...

Scotty, we need to go for the stinger.

On 24/01/2010 6:35 PM, nom=de=plume wrote:
wrote in message
...
On 24/01/2010 3:57 PM, wrote:
On Sun, 24 Jan 2010 15:02:26 -0500,
wrote:

Chinese are tightening their credit. I thinks Obama's problems just
got
worse. Especially if China wants some of that maturing US debt paid
off.


What happens if the USA just says, "No"?

Just curious.

Short answer ...
The dollar would be devalued and oil would cost more, among other
things.

Good answer, hyper inflation due to currency devaluation. And I really
think that is the liberal game plan. Has been for over 2 years as nothing
else explains the mad-hatter direction of government other than pure
insanity, which may be true all the same. Here goes my view on how
government is thinking on this depression.

Government does not sees the problem as people not having money, they see
homes in a recession pricing. It makes it attractive for a family to toss
the keys to the banks and walk. Growth is needed to hide losses and screw
ups.

Part of the plan is getting people to put all the money in seemingly safe
places, T-bills, money market, cash places. At ultra low interest rates.

Now lets say let the dollar fall by say 75% in a rapid period of time, too
fast to move out of cash and sell t-bills etc. Just stop honoring debt,
just like Iceland just did. Who knows, they could be the pilot group.

So if one woke up and oil went from $80 barrel to $320 a barrel, the
government just devlaued it's $12 trillion dollar debt by 75%, as people
get wage increases in the inflation cycle, and money is stuck in low
interest, the currency debt and fiscal debt becomes depreciated on the
backs of people with money.

It is why I am in pure cash (can buy gold/stock/real-esate etc) on a
click. But will not touch a morgage mutual, t-bill or cd/gic with a 10
foot poll. I view lending right now as toxic. Even if it is lending to
government. The only way I would lend to government is with an infation
clause and 5% premium without taxation. Otherwie a brick of gold looks
pretty good.

Lets take a scenario, person A buys $1000 of oil, say 12.5 barrels of it.
Person B buys a T-bill at a meaningless interest rate. Then the dollar
plumets as debt isn't honored against the currency itself.

Person A still has 12.5 barels of oil worth $4000. Person B has $1000.10
that now can only purchase 1/4 of what it did not too long ago. Value
currency depreciation.

More people will get jobs if it goes far enough as then US goods become
cheap like Chinese ones. Hyper inflation as coffee goes from $10 a tine
to $40, but government doesn't give a damn about retired and people, they
are just to milk for statism. Wages will not keep up.

How this addresses housing is simple. If a home is $200K to build today,
but is selling for $180K, and has a $200K morgage, after inflation it
changes to perhaps $500K to build and $400k to buy. No idiot will oss the
keys for that sweet deal.

To understand government policy, it becomes easy once you realize they are
the biggest meanist delinquent dysfunctional debtors going. A debt monger
mindset and plent of self denial.

Time will tell, but in 2010 some time we should see a big move down in USD
value. Big move actually. Probably in the later hald as the mini recovery
bubble pops.



If you think hyperinflation is coming, claiming that you've got all cash
isn't exactly where you want to be. You should be complete in a precious
metals, since you may not be able to "click" and get it done, as the SEC
would shut down the exchange. Also, you'll need to have the gold or whatever
in your possession to be safe.

Oh, and you're not too bright... if that wasn't obvious.

To you, not obvious. My generalization about cash is I am not going to
CD/GIC or loan it as a cash instrument, not even a money market and
certainly not bonds or some silly morgage mutual. I don't "invest in
cash" isn't the same as wanting some short term liquidity for
opportunities and portfolio rebalancing.

I have my reasons including if Obama drives the Dow to 8000 or lower it
might be a minor repeat of last year....and like last year have
opportunistic cash for the average in on the dip, its Obama's move.
LOL. Or perhaps buy some gold.

Just that China credit tightening and Japan banking with Obama chest
pounding sounds like trouble.

I don't think the US SEC can shut down a Canadian exchange. Have
another drink.

On 24/01/2010 5:20 PM, thunder wrote:
On Sun, 24 Jan 2010 15:02:26 -0500, Eisboch wrote:


What happens if the USA just says, "No"?

Just curious.

It would be one hell of a crash, and 5-10 very rough years, but then...
We'd have to get our own house in order, as no other country would want
to finance our overspending ways. Personally, I don't think it would be
all bad, but there are a lot easier ways to get our house in order. It
would be playing with fire, and you never know how burned we would get.

Iceland, Brazil, Zimbabwe, Venzuela, Argentina, Germany pre WW II all
have some history on this. Generally not good for the standard of
living which drops signifigantly. How far it drops depends a lot on the
size of the default. $2 trillion ot the Chinese, you will notice it big
time. Especially if the Saudis want Euros for USDs on the value drop --
could happen very fast. Get the Japanese banks to drop in the middle
being a major holder of US debt... all hell could break loose when the
germany banks fall.

Just waiting for the music to stop.

On 24/01/2010 6:37 PM, nom=de=plume wrote:
wrote in message
t...
On Sun, 24 Jan 2010 15:02:26 -0500, Eisboch wrote:


What happens if the USA just says, "No"?

Just curious.

It would be one hell of a crash, and 5-10 very rough years, but then...
We'd have to get our own house in order, as no other country would want
to finance our overspending ways. Personally, I don't think it would be
all bad, but there are a lot easier ways to get our house in order. It
would be playing with fire, and you never know how burned we would get.


There would be other international consequences also. It would affect the
totality of the world financial markets, and some countries would not
recover for decades. This alone could prevent our recovery in the time-frame
you mention.

Yep. Like the cold war, MAD if someone moves wrong. Chinese want the
value of the USDs they have, but if they flood the market and crash the
USD too quick....

Look at the cost of a barrel of oil as how well the USD is doing. If
oil goes up, the USD lost value. If the barrel goes down in cost, the
USD is strong. Look at the barrel of oil as a unit of constant value
currency. A one barrel note if you will. Todays exchange rate is
$74.60 USD == $1 OIL barrel note. Hard for some to do.

That way you can gauge the currency inflation effects more accurately.
Like the theory of relativity, is the dollar going up or the cost of oil
coming down? Both are true depending where you stand.

wrote in message
...
On Sun, 24 Jan 2010 15:57:49 -0800, "nom=de=plume"
wrote:

wrote in message
. ..
On Sun, 24 Jan 2010 11:13:31 -0800, "nom=de=plume"
wrote:

There will be no meaningful recovery until we find a way to replace
all the jobs that we have sent offshore.


Not sure I agree with the "replace all" comment, but I do certainly
agree
with the rest of the statement.


I am not sure why you disagree with "all" unless you mean "all plus
the new kids entering the market".
Our economy has been based on the middle class having good jobs. We
really have to start making things here again.
Maybe we should have a telethon to collect money to rebuild the US
infrastructure after we are done in Haiti..



If you use a term such as "all" or "every" it's almost always wrong. Some
jobs won't be replaced.

I agree a lot of auto workers are not going to be making cars but they
could be making other things. I believe wind energy is a boondoggle
but if people are willing to do it, it is not a bad place for factory
workers to work. There are plenty of things we need in the
infrastructure area. We just need to talk people into paying for it.


What's wrong with wind turbines? They seem to work... of course, it'll
require some investment...

--
Nom=de=Plume