"I am Tosk" wrote in message
...
In article ,
says...

On Sun, 24 Jan 2010 15:57:49 -0800, "nom=de=plume"
wrote:

wrote in message
.. .
On Sun, 24 Jan 2010 11:13:31 -0800, "nom=de=plume"
wrote:

There will be no meaningful recovery until we find a way to replace
all the jobs that we have sent offshore.


Not sure I agree with the "replace all" comment, but I do certainly
agree
with the rest of the statement.


I am not sure why you disagree with "all" unless you mean "all plus
the new kids entering the market".
Our economy has been based on the middle class having good jobs. We
really have to start making things here again.
Maybe we should have a telethon to collect money to rebuild the US
infrastructure after we are done in Haiti..



If you use a term such as "all" or "every" it's almost always wrong.
Some
jobs won't be replaced.

I agree a lot of auto workers are not going to be making cars but they
could be making other things. I believe wind energy is a boondoggle
but if people are willing to do it, it is not a bad place for factory
workers to work. There are plenty of things we need in the
infrastructure area. We just need to talk people into paying for it.

The roads and bridges are fine, and the dollar for dollar return in
products is not as good when spent on highway maintenance as it would be
in a decent sock factory. It's not the infrastructure that is holding
back our manufacturing. It's the Un..... well, either way, we need to
address the things that are killing the manufacturing base.

Old instructor told me long ago, don't bother with the bee, go for the
stinger...

Scotty, we need to go for the stinger.


The roads and bridges are dandy, until they collapse. Infrastructure is one
of the things we really need to work on in this country.

--
Nom=de=Plume

wrote in message
...
On Sun, 24 Jan 2010 23:56:47 -0500, I am Tosk
wrote:

There are plenty of things we need in the
infrastructure area. We just need to talk people into paying for it.

The roads and bridges are fine, and the dollar for dollar return in
products is not as good when spent on highway maintenance as it would be
in a decent sock factory. It's not the infrastructure that is holding
back our manufacturing. It's the Un..... well, either way, we need to
address the things that are killing the manufacturing base.

When you start building roads and bridges you also crank up the heavy
equipment factories, the cement plants and the steel fabricators.
There are also other infrastructure items like our failing sewer
systems and water distribution that need work.
We would put a lot of people to work if this wind generation scheme
caught hold but the environmentalists will never let it happen.


I don't think Tosk quite gets that.

All environmentalists are against it or just a few? All is a tricky word.
You might want to try and avoid using it. In this case "the" seems to be the
poor substitute.

--
Nom=de=Plume

wrote in message
news
On Sun, 24 Jan 2010 18:35:50 -0800, "nom=de=plume"
wrote:


course, we can't when unions think that unskilled labor assemblimg an
outlet strip should earn $60k a year.

What's wrong with them thinking that? Nothing. It's called what the market
will bear.

The market has already spoken. We go to walmart and buy something from
china because it is cheaper.

And if we all bought socks from the last US company making them,
they'd have a banner year, expand, and we'd have the socks we need and
more jobs to boot.

Except that GM/Chrysler designed cars that nobody wanted.

I hear that a lot but they sold the hell out of their trucks. That was
the cash cow at all of the US manufacturers. The Ford F150 is still
one of the top 3 vehicles in the US, down from #1.
I will agree the assembly of a lot of these cars is crap (squeaks
rattles etc) ... but that brings us back to that $60,000 guy doesn't
it?


I suppose it does, but I don't know what Wal-mart has to do with the auto
industry. There are plenty of foreign cars that are affordable and darn
nice.

--
Nom=de=Plume

wrote in message
...
On Sun, 24 Jan 2010 15:58:37 -0800, "nom=de=plume"
wrote:

What happens if the USA just says, "No"?

Just curious.

Short answer ...
The dollar would be devalued and oil would cost more, among other
things.


And the Chinese economy would tank.

The Chinese are actually in a better position to take the hit than we
were. They are really only a generation away from the 18th century way
of doing things in large parts of the country. If their economy
crashes it will disappoint a lot of people who thought they were
moving up but they won't starve.
My fear is they are a culture with a thousand year plan. They might be
willing to take those lumps to defeat us. It is certainly cheaper for
them than the thermonuclear war we had held over our heads for most of
the second half of the 20th century.


Nope.. much worse. They're basically still a third-world country. People
would starve and die.

You're right about the culture thing though. The leaders don't care if
millions die. They already proved that in the Cultural Rev.

--
Nom=de=Plume

wrote in message
...
On Sun, 24 Jan 2010 17:35:33 -0800, "nom=de=plume"
wrote:

If you think hyperinflation is coming, claiming that you've got all cash
isn't exactly where you want to be. You should be complete in a precious
metals, since you may not be able to "click" and get it done, as the SEC
would shut down the exchange. Also, you'll need to have the gold or
whatever
in your possession to be safe.

Oh, and you're not too bright... if that wasn't obvious.


Silver coins is a good hedge. You might give someone a quarter for a
loaf of bread but it is hard to make change for a Krugerrand.
I have some but I wish I had bought a drywall bucket full when they
were 4-5x face.


It's a "crunch" mentality to hoard pieces of metal. Some is fine, but I sure
as heck don't want to lug it around.

--
Nom=de=Plume

"Canuck57" wrote in message
...
On 24/01/2010 6:35 PM, nom=de=plume wrote:
wrote in message
...
On 24/01/2010 3:57 PM, wrote:
On Sun, 24 Jan 2010 15:02:26 -0500,
wrote:

Chinese are tightening their credit. I thinks Obama's problems just
got
worse. Especially if China wants some of that maturing US debt paid
off.


What happens if the USA just says, "No"?

Just curious.

Short answer ...
The dollar would be devalued and oil would cost more, among other
things.

Good answer, hyper inflation due to currency devaluation. And I really
think that is the liberal game plan. Has been for over 2 years as
nothing
else explains the mad-hatter direction of government other than pure
insanity, which may be true all the same. Here goes my view on how
government is thinking on this depression.

Government does not sees the problem as people not having money, they
see
homes in a recession pricing. It makes it attractive for a family to
toss
the keys to the banks and walk. Growth is needed to hide losses and
screw
ups.

Part of the plan is getting people to put all the money in seemingly
safe
places, T-bills, money market, cash places. At ultra low interest
rates.

Now lets say let the dollar fall by say 75% in a rapid period of time,
too
fast to move out of cash and sell t-bills etc. Just stop honoring debt,
just like Iceland just did. Who knows, they could be the pilot group.

So if one woke up and oil went from $80 barrel to $320 a barrel, the
government just devlaued it's $12 trillion dollar debt by 75%, as people
get wage increases in the inflation cycle, and money is stuck in low
interest, the currency debt and fiscal debt becomes depreciated on the
backs of people with money.

It is why I am in pure cash (can buy gold/stock/real-esate etc) on a
click. But will not touch a morgage mutual, t-bill or cd/gic with a 10
foot poll. I view lending right now as toxic. Even if it is lending to
government. The only way I would lend to government is with an infation
clause and 5% premium without taxation. Otherwie a brick of gold looks
pretty good.

Lets take a scenario, person A buys $1000 of oil, say 12.5 barrels of
it.
Person B buys a T-bill at a meaningless interest rate. Then the dollar
plumets as debt isn't honored against the currency itself.

Person A still has 12.5 barels of oil worth $4000. Person B has
$1000.10
that now can only purchase 1/4 of what it did not too long ago. Value
currency depreciation.

More people will get jobs if it goes far enough as then US goods become
cheap like Chinese ones. Hyper inflation as coffee goes from $10 a tine
to $40, but government doesn't give a damn about retired and people,
they
are just to milk for statism. Wages will not keep up.

How this addresses housing is simple. If a home is $200K to build
today,
but is selling for $180K, and has a $200K morgage, after inflation it
changes to perhaps $500K to build and $400k to buy. No idiot will oss
the
keys for that sweet deal.

To understand government policy, it becomes easy once you realize they
are
the biggest meanist delinquent dysfunctional debtors going. A debt
monger
mindset and plent of self denial.

Time will tell, but in 2010 some time we should see a big move down in
USD
value. Big move actually. Probably in the later hald as the mini
recovery
bubble pops.



If you think hyperinflation is coming, claiming that you've got all cash
isn't exactly where you want to be. You should be complete in a precious
metals, since you may not be able to "click" and get it done, as the SEC
would shut down the exchange. Also, you'll need to have the gold or
whatever
in your possession to be safe.

Oh, and you're not too bright... if that wasn't obvious.

To you, not obvious. My generalization about cash is I am not going to
CD/GIC or loan it as a cash instrument, not even a money market and
certainly not bonds or some silly morgage mutual. I don't "invest in
cash" isn't the same as wanting some short term liquidity for
opportunities and portfolio rebalancing.

I have my reasons including if Obama drives the Dow to 8000 or lower it
might be a minor repeat of last year....and like last year have
opportunistic cash for the average in on the dip, its Obama's move. LOL.
Or perhaps buy some gold.

Just that China credit tightening and Japan banking with Obama chest
pounding sounds like trouble.

I don't think the US SEC can shut down a Canadian exchange. Have another
drink.


I definitely think you should put all your money in gold. Also, buy some
land in a remote place and live there.

--
Nom=de=Plume

"Canuck57" wrote in message
...
On 24/01/2010 5:20 PM, thunder wrote:
On Sun, 24 Jan 2010 15:02:26 -0500, Eisboch wrote:


What happens if the USA just says, "No"?

Just curious.

It would be one hell of a crash, and 5-10 very rough years, but then...
We'd have to get our own house in order, as no other country would want
to finance our overspending ways. Personally, I don't think it would be
all bad, but there are a lot easier ways to get our house in order. It
would be playing with fire, and you never know how burned we would get.

Iceland, Brazil, Zimbabwe, Venzuela, Argentina, Germany pre WW II all have
some history on this. Generally not good for the standard of living which
drops signifigantly. How far it drops depends a lot on the size of the
default. $2 trillion ot the Chinese, you will notice it big time.
Especially if the Saudis want Euros for USDs on the value drop --
could happen very fast. Get the Japanese banks to drop in the middle
being a major holder of US debt... all hell could break loose when the
germany banks fall.

Just waiting for the music to stop.


Please keep waiting (can you do this quietly?) Get back to us when the sky
starts falling.

--
Nom=de=Plume

In article ,
says...

On Sun, 24 Jan 2010 23:56:47 -0500, I am Tosk
wrote:

There are plenty of things we need in the
infrastructure area. We just need to talk people into paying for it.

The roads and bridges are fine, and the dollar for dollar return in
products is not as good when spent on highway maintenance as it would be
in a decent sock factory. It's not the infrastructure that is holding
back our manufacturing. It's the Un..... well, either way, we need to
address the things that are killing the manufacturing base.

When you start building roads and bridges you also crank up the heavy
equipment factories, the cement plants and the steel fabricators.
There are also other infrastructure items like our failing sewer
systems and water distribution that need work.
We would put a lot of people to work if this wind generation scheme
caught hold but the environmentalists will never let it happen.

I still think putting all that money into roads that folks will drive
around on for free isn't as good as putting the money into factories t
make hard goods that can be sold to the public...

Scotty

wrote in message
...
On Sun, 24 Jan 2010 23:56:47 -0500, I am Tosk
wrote:

There are plenty of things we need in the
infrastructure area. We just need to talk people into paying for it.

The roads and bridges are fine, and the dollar for dollar return in
products is not as good when spent on highway maintenance as it would be
in a decent sock factory. It's not the infrastructure that is holding
back our manufacturing. It's the Un..... well, either way, we need to
address the things that are killing the manufacturing base.

When you start building roads and bridges you also crank up the heavy
equipment factories, the cement plants and the steel fabricators.
There are also other infrastructure items like our failing sewer
systems and water distribution that need work.
We would put a lot of people to work if this wind generation scheme
caught hold but the environmentalists will never let it happen.


I just don't get it. Government spending on infrastructure may create some
jobs in
certain industries, but it needs to be paid for by tax revenues from
somewhere.
Tax revenues come mostly from income taxes on employed people..... 45
percent, I think.
Point is, there has to be more private industry jobs hiring people who pay
taxes than just
those working on infrastructure improvements to pay for it.

Otherwise, the US just continues to borrow money to create a few jobs.

Eisboch

"nom=de=plume" wrote in message
...


What's wrong with wind turbines? They seem to work... of course, it'll
require some investment...


One problem is that they are notoriously over-rated in terms of their output
capacity.
Another big problem is environmentalists.
Another big oops is that the optimum areas that large scale wind turbine
generating plants would
be located are typically remote with no existing way to get the power to the
grid.
The cost of getting the power to the grid can be enormous and full of
additional environmental
impacts and/or objections.

Eisboch