It looks like the second Age of Sail is upon us.

According to this author. The world reached
"Peak Oil" in 2006 measured against real
production numbers--not hypothetical predictions!

************************************************** *************

http://www.guardian.co.uk/oil/story/0,,2196435,00.html

Steep decline in oil production brings risk of war and unrest, says
new study


· Output peaked in 2006 and will fall 7% a year
· Decline in gas, coal and uranium also predicted

Ashley Seager
Monday October 22, 2007
The Guardian

World oil production has already peaked and will fall by
half as soon as 2030, according to a report which also
warns that extreme shortages of fossil fuels will lead to
wars and social breakdown.

The German-based Energy Watch Group will release its
study in London today saying that global oil production
peaked in 2006 - much earlier than most experts had
expected. The report, which predicts that production
will now fall by 7% a year, comes after oil prices set
new records almost every day last week, on Friday
hitting more than $90 (£44) a barrel.

Article continues
"The world soon will not be able to produce all the oil
it needs as demand is rising while supply is falling.
This is a huge problem for the world economy," said
Hans-Josef Fell, EWG's founder and the German MP
behind the country's successful support system for
renewable energy.

The report's author, Joerg Schindler, said its most
alarming finding was the steep decline in oil production
after its peak, which he says is now behind us.

The results are in contrast to projections from the
International Energy Agency, which says there is
little reason to worry about oil supplies at the moment.

However, the EWG study relies more on actual oil
production data which, it says, are more reliable than
estimates of reserves still in the ground. The group
says official industry estimates put global reserves
at about 1.255 gigabarrels - equivalent to 42 years'
supply at current consumption rates. But it thinks
the figure is only about two thirds of that.

Global oil production is currently about 81m barrels
a day - EWG expects that to fall to 39m by 2030. It
also predicts significant falls in gas, coal and uranium
production as those energy sources are used up.

Britain's oil production peaked in 1999 and has already
dropped by half to about 1.6 million barrels a day.

The report presents a bleak view of the future unless a
radically different approach is adopted. It quotes the
British energy economist David Fleming as saying:
"Anticipated supply shortages could lead easily to
disturbing scenes of mass unrest as witnessed in
Burma this month. For government, industry and the
wider public, just muddling through is not an option
any more as this situation could spin out of control
and turn into a complete meltdown of society."

Mr Schindler comes to a similar conclusion. "The
world is at the beginning of a structural change of its
economic system. This change will be triggered by
declining fossil fuel supplies and will influence almost
all aspects of our daily life."

Jeremy Leggett, one of Britain's leading
environmentalists and the author of Half Gone, a book
about "peak oil" - defined as the moment when
maximum production is reached, said that both the
UK government and the energy industry were in
"institutionalised denial" and that action should have
been taken sooner.

"When I was an adviser to government, I proposed
that we set up a taskforce to look at how fast the
UK could mobilise alternative energy technologies
in extremis, come the peak," he said. "Other
industry advisers supported that. But the government
prefers to sleep on without even doing a contingency
study. For those of us who know that premature
peak oil is a clear and present danger, it is
impossible to understand such complacency."

Mr Fell said that the world had to move quickly
towards the massive deployment of renewable
energy and to a dramatic increase in energy
efficiency, both as a way to combat climate change
and to ensure that the lights stayed on. "If we did
all this we may not have an energy crisis."

He accused the British government of hypocrisy.
"Tony Blair and Gordon Brown have talked a lot
about climate change but have not brought in proper
policies to drive up the use of renewables," he said.
"This is why they are left talking about nuclear and
carbon capture and storage. "

Yesterday, a spokesman for the Department of
Business and Enterprise said: "Over the next few
years global oil production and refining capacity is
expected to increase faster than demand. The
world's oil resources are sufficient to sustain
economic growth for the foreseeable future. The
challenge will be to bring these resources to
market in a way that ensures sustainable, timely,
reliable and affordable supplies of energy."

The German policy, which guarantees above-market
payments to producers of renewable power, is being
adopted in many countries - but not Britain, where
renewables generate about 4% of the country's
electricity and 2% of its overall energy needs.

On Oct 25, 9:58 pm, Bart wrote:
It looks like the second Age of Sail is upon us.

According to this author. The world reached
"Peak Oil" in 2006 measured against real
production numbers--not hypothetical predictions!

************************************************** *************

http://www.guardian.co.uk/oil/story/0,,2196435,00.html

Steep decline in oil production brings risk of war and unrest, says
new study

· Output peaked in 2006 and will fall 7% a year
· Decline in gas, coal and uranium also predicted

Ashley Seager
Monday October 22, 2007
The Guardian

World oil production has already peaked and will fall by
half as soon as 2030, according to a report which also
warns that extreme shortages of fossil fuels will lead to
wars and social breakdown.

The German-based Energy Watch Group will release its
study in London today saying that global oil production
peaked in 2006 - much earlier than most experts had
expected. The report, which predicts that production
will now fall by 7% a year, comes after oil prices set
new records almost every day last week, on Friday
hitting more than $90 (£44) a barrel.

Article continues
"The world soon will not be able to produce all the oil
it needs as demand is rising while supply is falling.
This is a huge problem for the world economy," said
Hans-Josef Fell, EWG's founder and the German MP
behind the country's successful support system for
renewable energy.

The report's author, Joerg Schindler, said its most
alarming finding was the steep decline in oil production
after its peak, which he says is now behind us.

The results are in contrast to projections from the
International Energy Agency, which says there is
little reason to worry about oil supplies at the moment.

However, the EWG study relies more on actual oil
production data which, it says, are more reliable than
estimates of reserves still in the ground. The group
says official industry estimates put global reserves
at about 1.255 gigabarrels - equivalent to 42 years'
supply at current consumption rates. But it thinks
the figure is only about two thirds of that.

Global oil production is currently about 81m barrels
a day - EWG expects that to fall to 39m by 2030. It
also predicts significant falls in gas, coal and uranium
production as those energy sources are used up.

Britain's oil production peaked in 1999 and has already
dropped by half to about 1.6 million barrels a day.

The report presents a bleak view of the future unless a
radically different approach is adopted. It quotes the
British energy economist David Fleming as saying:
"Anticipated supply shortages could lead easily to
disturbing scenes of mass unrest as witnessed in
Burma this month. For government, industry and the
wider public, just muddling through is not an option
any more as this situation could spin out of control
and turn into a complete meltdown of society."

Mr Schindler comes to a similar conclusion. "The
world is at the beginning of a structural change of its
economic system. This change will be triggered by
declining fossil fuel supplies and will influence almost
all aspects of our daily life."

Jeremy Leggett, one of Britain's leading
environmentalists and the author of Half Gone, a book
about "peak oil" - defined as the moment when
maximum production is reached, said that both the
UK government and the energy industry were in
"institutionalised denial" and that action should have
been taken sooner.

"When I was an adviser to government, I proposed
that we set up a taskforce to look at how fast the
UK could mobilise alternative energy technologies
in extremis, come the peak," he said. "Other
industry advisers supported that. But the government
prefers to sleep on without even doing a contingency
study. For those of us who know that premature
peak oil is a clear and present danger, it is
impossible to understand such complacency."

Mr Fell said that the world had to move quickly
towards the massive deployment of renewable
energy and to a dramatic increase in energy
efficiency, both as a way to combat climate change
and to ensure that the lights stayed on. "If we did
all this we may not have an energy crisis."

He accused the British government of hypocrisy.
"Tony Blair and Gordon Brown have talked a lot
about climate change but have not brought in proper
policies to drive up the use of renewables," he said.
"This is why they are left talking about nuclear and
carbon capture and storage. "

Yesterday, a spokesman for the Department of
Business and Enterprise said: "Over the next few
years global oil production and refining capacity is
expected to increase faster than demand. The
world's oil resources are sufficient to sustain
economic growth for the foreseeable future. The
challenge will be to bring these resources to
market in a way that ensures sustainable, timely,
reliable and affordable supplies of energy."

The German policy, which guarantees above-market
payments to producers of renewable power, is being
adopted in many countries - but not Britain, where
renewables generate about 4% of the country's
electricity and 2% of its overall energy needs.

Shipping Coffee by sail;, since it is the second largest commody
traded on earth, would be a good thing to start now....IMO ;0)

Joe

Bart wrote:

It looks like the second Age of Sail is upon us.

According to this author. The world reached
"Peak Oil" in 2006 measured against real
production numbers--not hypothetical predictions!


The German-based Energy Watch Group

I wouldn't believe anything these guys write Bart, they're a Liberal,
Global Warming touting bunch of scaremongers.

Cheers
Marty
------------ And now a word from our sponsor ------------------
Want to have instant messaging, and chat rooms, and discussion
groups for your local users or business, you need dbabble!
-- See http://netwinsite.com/sponsor/sponsor_dbabble.htm ----

"Martin Baxter" wrote in message
...
Bart wrote:

It looks like the second Age of Sail is upon us.

According to this author. The world reached
"Peak Oil" in 2006 measured against real
production numbers--not hypothetical predictions!


The German-based Energy Watch Group

I wouldn't believe anything these guys write Bart, they're a Liberal,
Global Warming touting bunch of scaremongers.

Cheers
Marty
------------ And now a word from our sponsor ------------------
Want to have instant messaging, and chat rooms, and discussion
groups for your local users or business, you need dbabble!
-- See http://netwinsite.com/sponsor/sponsor_dbabble.htm ----


And, don't even get us started on the dreaded socialized medicine. Gods
forbid we insure kids, whether they can afford it or not! (Oh, sorry.)

--
"j" ganz @@
www.sailnow.com

On Oct 25, 9:58 pm, Bart wrote:
It looks like the second Age of Sail is upon us.


Oil's only 92 a drum..Just wait till it's 300.

Joe

"Capt. JG" wrote:

"Martin Baxter" wrote in message
...
Bart wrote:

It looks like the second Age of Sail is upon us.

According to this author. The world reached
"Peak Oil" in 2006 measured against real
production numbers--not hypothetical predictions!


The German-based Energy Watch Group

I wouldn't believe anything these guys write Bart, they're a Liberal,
Global Warming touting bunch of scaremongers.

Cheers
Marty
------------ And now a word from our sponsor ------------------
Want to have instant messaging, and chat rooms, and discussion
groups for your local users or business, you need dbabble!
-- See http://netwinsite.com/sponsor/sponsor_dbabble.htm ----

And, don't even get us started on the dreaded socialized medicine. Gods
forbid we insure kids, whether they can afford it or not! (Oh, sorry.)

Good God man! You must be some kind of Commie-Pinko. "I don't dislike
women, but I do deny them my essence.", was that General Ripper?

Cheers
Marty

"Martin B" {remove{}and_everything_in_bet ween} wrote in
message ...


"Capt. JG" wrote:

"Martin Baxter" wrote in message
...
Bart wrote:

It looks like the second Age of Sail is upon us.

According to this author. The world reached
"Peak Oil" in 2006 measured against real
production numbers--not hypothetical predictions!


The German-based Energy Watch Group

I wouldn't believe anything these guys write Bart, they're a Liberal,
Global Warming touting bunch of scaremongers.

Cheers
Marty
------------ And now a word from our sponsor ------------------
Want to have instant messaging, and chat rooms, and discussion
groups for your local users or business, you need dbabble!
-- See http://netwinsite.com/sponsor/sponsor_dbabble.htm ----

And, don't even get us started on the dreaded socialized medicine. Gods
forbid we insure kids, whether they can afford it or not! (Oh, sorry.)

Good God man! You must be some kind of Commie-Pinko. "I don't dislike
women, but I do deny them my essence.", was that General Ripper?

Cheers
Marty



At least he was a sailor!


--
"j" ganz @@
www.sailnow.com

On Oct 26, 12:46 pm, Joe wrote:
On Oct 25, 9:58 pm, Bart wrote:

It looks like the second Age of Sail is upon us.

Oil's only 92 a drum..Just wait till it's 300.

Joe

It may happen sooner than you think!

"Bart" wrote in message
oups.com...
On Oct 26, 12:46 pm, Joe wrote:
On Oct 25, 9:58 pm, Bart wrote:

It looks like the second Age of Sail is upon us.

Oil's only 92 a drum..Just wait till it's 300.

Joe

It may happen sooner than you think!



One can only hope!

--
"j" ganz @@
www.sailnow.com

"Capt. JG" wrote in message
...
"

And, don't even get us started on the dreaded socialized
medicine. Gods
forbid we insure kids, whether they can afford it or not!
(Oh, sorry.)


And by ''we'', you mean?