"Vito" wrote in message ...
Shen44 wrote:

Subject: Perfect Storm
From: "Simple Simon"
Date: 09/12/2003 10:23 Pacific Standard Time
Message-id:

Look at the symmetry and the nice eye on this baby!

True, but only a fool or amateur like yourself, would try to estimate it's
final direction at this stage.

Fool or not, official predictions ignore the 3rd derivative - the rate
at which the rate of course changes if you will. That's why their
"updates" keep moving the landfall farther north. Factor it in and the
eye goes right up Lon Gyland sound, across Conn and Mass Bay and into
the Atlantic

So much depends upon timing. Projections are all based on
where a storm is and when it's there. This includes forward
progress as well as direction. Right now Isabel is putzing around
and slowing down more than was accounted for in earlier
weather service forecasts. If it keeps going as slow or
slows down even more then tracks will change even more the
further it's projected into the future. . .

You're correct in your assessment that the longer Isabel takes
to follow the projected track the more the track will have to
be adjusted north. The majority of the tacks take Isabel right
up the Chesapeake Bay. If Isabel doesn't start speeding up
these tracks will all be shown more east from their present
positions. I think BAM -M is beginning to be more and
more viable even though it is the only one out of the 'norm'

http://maps.wunderground.com/data/im...0313_model.gif


S.Simon

Simple Simon wrote:

...... I think BAM -M is beginning to be more and
more viable even though it is the only one out of the 'norm'

Oooops! A few high pressure ridges moving SW out on No Europe and oy!
there it goes across West Va.