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Brightening economic outlook?
Having a small company that is involved in large, capital equipment type
contracts has certain advantages. One of them, that I noticed years ago, is that the level of new orders almost always reflects an accurate prediction of which way the general economy was heading, usually about 6 months before it became a current topic of discussion in the media. Last year my former company (now my oldest son's) had a tough year with a major slowdown in new order activity and, in some cases, cancellation or postponement of planned orders by several customers. The situation was not unique to the company as many others involved in similar, high cost capital equipment businesses experienced the same slowdown. This has all changed. In the past 30 days the company has received over $6M in new contracts and the quoting activity for more has picked up substantially. If this continues, and past history says it will, 2008 will be a very busy year. I'll betcha that by May or June all the talk will be about how robust the US economy is. Eisboch |
Brightening economic outlook?
On Tue, 1 Jan 2008 07:31:23 -0500, "Eisboch" wrote:
Having a small company that is involved in large, capital equipment type contracts has certain advantages. One of them, that I noticed years ago, is that the level of new orders almost always reflects an accurate prediction of which way the general economy was heading, usually about 6 months before it became a current topic of discussion in the media. Last year my former company (now my oldest son's) had a tough year with a major slowdown in new order activity and, in some cases, cancellation or postponement of planned orders by several customers. The situation was not unique to the company as many others involved in similar, high cost capital equipment businesses experienced the same slowdown. This has all changed. In the past 30 days the company has received over $6M in new contracts and the quoting activity for more has picked up substantially. If this continues, and past history says it will, 2008 will be a very busy year. I'll betcha that by May or June all the talk will be about how robust the US economy is. As you know, my good friend who is in the high end machining business, second year, has enough orders to keep his shop running for the next year flat out and is looking to hire four more machinists by the end of January because he's gotten some major RFPs. He's already ordered some new milling and grinding equipment for delivery in late March. Personally, I was concerned about the housing slowdown, but judging by the activity selling our four rental properties, that hasn't happened at all. We've sold two of them at the asking price with none of that "closing costs" discount crap - both to non-owner occupied investors and tomorrow afternoon I'm showing the other two to some folks interested in owner occupied one of them has already made a "verbal" offer at asking price pending inspection. The dealer that I buy my boats/engines from hasn't been doing so well in the sales department, but this is the first year he hasn't had to lay off his mechanics in the service department for lack of things to do. Normally, he lays them off for a month - mid January to mid February. On the other hand, car/truck sales suck big time from what I'm hearing. I think overall, we're doing fine - just readjusting to a different paradigm. |
Brightening economic outlook?
"Eisboch" wrote in message ... Having a small company that is involved in large, capital equipment type contracts has certain advantages. One of them, that I noticed years ago, is that the level of new orders almost always reflects an accurate prediction of which way the general economy was heading, usually about 6 months before it became a current topic of discussion in the media. Last year my former company (now my oldest son's) had a tough year with a major slowdown in new order activity and, in some cases, cancellation or postponement of planned orders by several customers. The situation was not unique to the company as many others involved in similar, high cost capital equipment businesses experienced the same slowdown. This has all changed. In the past 30 days the company has received over $6M in new contracts and the quoting activity for more has picked up substantially. If this continues, and past history says it will, 2008 will be a very busy year. I'll betcha that by May or June all the talk will be about how robust the US economy is. Eisboch Yeah right. "ALL" the talk in an election year will be about the robust US economy, particularly in this venue. :-) I sure hope your favorite leading indicator is right on track again this time. Enough is enough. |
Brightening economic outlook?
Eisboch wrote:
I'll betcha that by May or June all the talk will be about how robust the US economy is. Eisboch In the face of another half million American families losing their homes, the creation of mostly "McJob" jobs, a few million more Americans without health insurance, slumping retail sales, and a few more cuts in the prime rate that have no impact? Are you pimping for a job in the remains of the Bush Administration? :} |
Brightening economic outlook?
"HK" wrote in message ... Eisboch wrote: I'll betcha that by May or June all the talk will be about how robust the US economy is. Eisboch In the face of another half million American families losing their homes, the creation of mostly "McJob" jobs, a few million more Americans without health insurance, slumping retail sales, and a few more cuts in the prime rate that have no impact? Are you pimping for a job in the remains of the Bush Administration? :} Heh. Hardly. Just reporting a promising trend amidst all the doom and gloom we get saturated with everyday. Eisboch |
Brightening economic outlook?
On Tue, 1 Jan 2008 07:31:23 -0500, "Eisboch" wrote:
Having a small company that is involved in large, capital equipment type contracts has certain advantages. One of them, that I noticed years ago, is that the level of new orders almost always reflects an accurate prediction of which way the general economy was heading, usually about 6 months before it became a current topic of discussion in the media. Last year my former company (now my oldest son's) had a tough year with a major slowdown in new order activity and, in some cases, cancellation or postponement of planned orders by several customers. The situation was not unique to the company as many others involved in similar, high cost capital equipment businesses experienced the same slowdown. This has all changed. In the past 30 days the company has received over $6M in new contracts and the quoting activity for more has picked up substantially. If this continues, and past history says it will, 2008 will be a very busy year. I'll betcha that by May or June all the talk will be about how robust the US economy is. Eisboch Obviously Harry had a rough night last night and isn't out of bed yet to give your comments their due. All the new jobs are for bed-makers or fry-cooks, and the only folks doing well are the selfish CEO's at the top. That's his story, and he's sticking to it! -- *****Have a Spectacular New Year!***** John H |
Brightening economic outlook?
John H. wrote:
On Tue, 1 Jan 2008 07:31:23 -0500, "Eisboch" wrote: Having a small company that is involved in large, capital equipment type contracts has certain advantages. One of them, that I noticed years ago, is that the level of new orders almost always reflects an accurate prediction of which way the general economy was heading, usually about 6 months before it became a current topic of discussion in the media. Last year my former company (now my oldest son's) had a tough year with a major slowdown in new order activity and, in some cases, cancellation or postponement of planned orders by several customers. The situation was not unique to the company as many others involved in similar, high cost capital equipment businesses experienced the same slowdown. This has all changed. In the past 30 days the company has received over $6M in new contracts and the quoting activity for more has picked up substantially. If this continues, and past history says it will, 2008 will be a very busy year. I'll betcha that by May or June all the talk will be about how robust the US economy is. Eisboch Obviously Harry had a rough night last night and isn't out of bed yet to give your comments their due. All the new jobs are for bed-makers or fry-cooks, and the only folks doing well are the selfish CEO's at the top. That's his story, and he's sticking to it! It is good to get Eisboch information. At one time I was in an industry that was nearly 180 degrees out of step with the economy. When we were going up the economy was going down and visa versa It helps explain the streets in our neighborhood that were lined with the remains of a "poor" christmas on last Fridays trash pick up. As with the talking heads in the media, some people confuse economics with political rhetoric. -- Keith Nuttle 3110 Marquette Court Indianapolis, IN 46268 317-802-0699 |
Brightening economic outlook?
On Tue, 1 Jan 2008 09:39:29 -0500, "Eisboch" wrote:
"HK" wrote in message ... Eisboch wrote: I'll betcha that by May or June all the talk will be about how robust the US economy is. Eisboch In the face of another half million American families losing their homes, the creation of mostly "McJob" jobs, a few million more Americans without health insurance, slumping retail sales, and a few more cuts in the prime rate that have no impact? Are you pimping for a job in the remains of the Bush Administration? :} Heh. Hardly. Just reporting a promising trend amidst all the doom and gloom we get saturated with everyday. Think of the children. Um... Sorry - different thread. I watch and listen to CNBC a lot during the day and it's interesting the opinions you get that go from full blown global depression to full bore cheerleading for recovery. And everybody has stats and anecdotal evidence to back it up. If the experts don't know, who the hell does? You have to rely on anecdotal evidence and mine is pretty positive. I know one engineer who is out of a job and that's by personal choice - he's playing caretaker to his six month old grand daughter and having a blast doing it. Seriously, I've been out of the game for 14 years and I'm still getting feelers from head hunters - I'm going to be 62 in July - how bad can it be? I know it's gotta be tougher for people in lower economic brackets - just the cost of gas to get to work has to have an impact on discretionary spending - I understand that. And maybe my view is skewed because I'm more likely to notice job ads for people with some technical skills. Electricians, plumbers, carpenters I know are doing ok - keeping the bills paid and busy all the time - I just don't know. |
Brightening economic outlook?
On Tue, 01 Jan 2008 09:29:21 -0500, HK wrote:
Eisboch wrote: I'll betcha that by May or June all the talk will be about how robust the US economy is. Eisboch In the face of another half million American families losing their homes, the creation of mostly "McJob" jobs, a few million more Americans without health insurance, slumping retail sales, and a few more cuts in the prime rate that have no impact? Are you pimping for a job in the remains of the Bush Administration? :} Let's see, if we have a million new jobs, and supervisors are needed for every ten, then we've also promoted 100,000 to supervisor positions, along with 10,000 to supervise them, and another 1000 to supervise them. Sounds like we're doing pretty well, Harry. Of course, that doesn't fit your agenda. So why not just shut up? -- John H |
Brightening economic outlook?
On Tue, 01 Jan 2008 14:56:04 GMT, Keith nuttle
wrote: John H. wrote: On Tue, 1 Jan 2008 07:31:23 -0500, "Eisboch" wrote: Having a small company that is involved in large, capital equipment type contracts has certain advantages. One of them, that I noticed years ago, is that the level of new orders almost always reflects an accurate prediction of which way the general economy was heading, usually about 6 months before it became a current topic of discussion in the media. Last year my former company (now my oldest son's) had a tough year with a major slowdown in new order activity and, in some cases, cancellation or postponement of planned orders by several customers. The situation was not unique to the company as many others involved in similar, high cost capital equipment businesses experienced the same slowdown. This has all changed. In the past 30 days the company has received over $6M in new contracts and the quoting activity for more has picked up substantially. If this continues, and past history says it will, 2008 will be a very busy year. I'll betcha that by May or June all the talk will be about how robust the US economy is. Eisboch Obviously Harry had a rough night last night and isn't out of bed yet to give your comments their due. All the new jobs are for bed-makers or fry-cooks, and the only folks doing well are the selfish CEO's at the top. That's his story, and he's sticking to it! It is good to get Eisboch information. At one time I was in an industry that was nearly 180 degrees out of step with the economy. When we were going up the economy was going down and visa versa It helps explain the streets in our neighborhood that were lined with the remains of a "poor" christmas on last Fridays trash pick up. As with the talking heads in the media, some people confuse economics with political rhetoric. Well, Brian Williams seems to spend much more time on his 'subtle' political rhetoric than he does on actual news. -- John H |
Brightening economic outlook?
On Jan 1, 9:29*am, HK wrote:
Eisboch wrote: I'll betcha that by May or June all the talk will be about how robust the US economy is. Eisboch In the face of another half million American families losing their homes, the creation of mostly "McJob" jobs, a few million more Americans It was Billary during the election that said "we don't care if they are making potato chips, we will put Americans to work and give them jobs". That's when folks really started getting paid for doing nothing.. Leading to a paper economy in the late 90's. without health insurance, slumping retail sales, and a few more cuts in the prime rate that have no impact? Are you pimping for a job in the remains of the Bush Administration? *:} |
Brightening economic outlook?
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Brightening economic outlook?
"Eisboch" wrote in news:D4mdnd1r3sMzr-fanZ2dnUVZ_u-
: I'll betcha that by May or June all the talk will be about how robust the US economy is. Just talk, not reality. Until we do something to correct this: http://kitco.com/LFgif/au3650nyb.gif our situation will keep getting worse and worse. This chart is the reason prices and costs are rising at such an alarming rate. Whether anyone likes it or not, the price of gold is the measuring stick for the value of currency for the last 10,000 years. It cannot continue to rise at the rate, last year, of about 33%/year. If your orders didn't increase over 33%, you lost your ass. If the value of your property didn't rise over 33%, you lost your ass. If you didn't get over 33% return on your investments, you lost your ass. Oil companies are not responsible for the $3/gallon gas. The Federal Reserve Banknote Corporation and its elite owners are the cause of it all....printing money as fast as they can with nothing to back it up to loan it to the US Government, at interest, to fund these stupid wars the bankers created in the first place. Look again at that balance sheet. Is it 33% more than last year so you can just break even? At some point the Sheeple will be squeezed to the point of breaking. Hope I'm dead by that time so I don't have to witness the murders. Larry -- Do remember to put 2008 on your checks!...(c; |
Brightening economic outlook?
On Jan 1, 10:46*am, HK wrote:
wrote: On Jan 1, 9:29 am, HK wrote: Eisboch wrote: I'll betcha that by May or June all the talk will be about how robust the US economy is. Eisboch In the face of another half million American families losing their homes, the creation of mostly "McJob" jobs, a few million more Americans It was Billary during the election that said "we don't care if they are making potato chips, we will put Americans to work and give them jobs". That's when folks really started getting paid for doing nothing.. Leading to a paper economy in the late 90's. without health insurance, slumping retail sales, and a few more cuts in the prime rate that have no impact? Are you pimping for a job in the remains of the Bush Administration? *:} You must be a Mike Chuckleberry voter.- Hide quoted text - - Show quoted text - No, no... He is an idiot. But you deflect from the fact that Billary used that rhetoric in an election year, what about that?? |
Brightening economic outlook?
On Tue, 01 Jan 2008 09:42:57 -0500, Gene Kearns
wrote: I think overall, we're doing fine - just readjusting to a different paradigm. I wonder what that will turn out to be? In my opinion, and this isn't scientific economic analysis by any stretch, we are shifting back to a more conservative economic approach to spending on a consumer level - perhaps a more thrifty approach to how we approach spending would be a better way to say it. Increasing equity in homes, a more realistic approach to expectations - that kind of thing. Unbridled consumerism has seen it's day - I think. |
Brightening economic outlook?
On Tue, 01 Jan 2008 15:59:53 +0000, Short Wave Sportfishing wrote:
In my opinion, and this isn't scientific economic analysis by any stretch, we are shifting back to a more conservative economic approach to spending on a consumer level - perhaps a more thrifty approach to how we approach spending would be a better way to say it. Increasing equity in homes, a more realistic approach to expectations - that kind of thing. Unbridled consumerism has seen it's day - I think. That will surely crash the world's economy. ;-( |
Brightening economic outlook?
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Brightening economic outlook?
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Brightening economic outlook?
"Larry" wrote in message ... "Eisboch" wrote in news:D4mdnd1r3sMzr-fanZ2dnUVZ_u- : I'll betcha that by May or June all the talk will be about how robust the US economy is. Just talk, not reality. Until we do something to correct this: http://kitco.com/LFgif/au3650nyb.gif our situation will keep getting worse and worse. This chart is the reason prices and costs are rising at such an alarming rate. Whether anyone likes it or not, the price of gold is the measuring stick for the value of currency for the last 10,000 years. It cannot continue to rise at the rate, last year, of about 33%/year. If your orders didn't increase over 33%, you lost your ass. If the value of your property didn't rise over 33%, you lost your ass. If you didn't get over 33% return on your investments, you lost your ass. Oil companies are not responsible for the $3/gallon gas. The Federal Reserve Banknote Corporation and its elite owners are the cause of it all....printing money as fast as they can with nothing to back it up to loan it to the US Government, at interest, to fund these stupid wars the bankers created in the first place. Look again at that balance sheet. Is it 33% more than last year so you can just break even? At some point the Sheeple will be squeezed to the point of breaking. Hope I'm dead by that time so I don't have to witness the murders. Larry, I think what you are promoting only has merit and meaning if you also subscribe to the other nonsense you warned us about ... the demise of the USA, the dollar as a currency and Bush's "plan" to unit all of North America by 2010. If you believe in all that, yup, we are up the creek without a paddle. Fortunately, that conspiracy theory is so full of holes you could use it as a screen door. Eisboch |
Brightening economic outlook?
"Eisboch" wrote in
: Fortunately, that conspiracy theory is so full of holes you could use it as a screen door. The price of gold has fixed the value of money since way before printing of useless paper script. Our money is WORTHLESS, more worthless every week. One only has to look at PRICES to see what's going on.... It's called DEVALUATION and has been used for thousands of years to cheat the masses out of their labor, their property, their lives. Stop by the diesel dock at any marina and check it out! Larry -- Do remember to put 2008 on your checks!...(c; |
Brightening economic outlook?
"Larry" wrote in message ... "Eisboch" wrote in : Fortunately, that conspiracy theory is so full of holes you could use it as a screen door. The price of gold has fixed the value of money since way before printing of useless paper script. Our money is WORTHLESS, more worthless every week. One only has to look at PRICES to see what's going on.... It's called DEVALUATION and has been used for thousands of years to cheat the masses out of their labor, their property, their lives. Before gold it was salt. Eisboch |
Brightening economic outlook?
D.Duck wrote:
"Eisboch" wrote in message ... Having a small company that is involved in large, capital equipment type contracts has certain advantages. One of them, that I noticed years ago, is that the level of new orders almost always reflects an accurate prediction of which way the general economy was heading, usually about 6 months before it became a current topic of discussion in the media. Last year my former company (now my oldest son's) had a tough year with a major slowdown in new order activity and, in some cases, cancellation or postponement of planned orders by several customers. The situation was not unique to the company as many others involved in similar, high cost capital equipment businesses experienced the same slowdown. This has all changed. In the past 30 days the company has received over $6M in new contracts and the quoting activity for more has picked up substantially. If this continues, and past history says it will, 2008 will be a very busy year. I'll betcha that by May or June all the talk will be about how robust the US economy is. Eisboch Yeah right. "ALL" the talk in an election year will be about the robust US economy, particularly in this venue. :-) I sure hope your favorite leading indicator is right on track again this time. Enough is enough. House sales up in November! If you are so inclined it is time to go rental property shopping. |
Brightening economic outlook?
HK wrote:
Eisboch wrote: I'll betcha that by May or June all the talk will be about how robust the US economy is. Eisboch In the face of another half million American families losing their homes, the creation of mostly "McJob" jobs, a few million more Americans without health insurance, slumping retail sales, and a few more cuts in the prime rate that have no impact? Are you pimping for a job in the remains of the Bush Administration? :} Weren't you bitching about the stringent mortgage lending rules and American families not being able to cash in on the housing appreciation boom? If you can't afford to buy it then leave it on the shelf. |
Brightening economic outlook?
Eisboch wrote:
"Larry" wrote in message ... "Eisboch" wrote in : Fortunately, that conspiracy theory is so full of holes you could use it as a screen door. The price of gold has fixed the value of money since way before printing of useless paper script. Our money is WORTHLESS, more worthless every week. One only has to look at PRICES to see what's going on.... It's called DEVALUATION and has been used for thousands of years to cheat the masses out of their labor, their property, their lives. Before gold it was salt. Eisboch I thought poontang came just after salt? |
Brightening economic outlook?
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Brightening economic outlook?
On Jan 1, 4:31�am, "Eisboch" wrote:
Having a small company that is involved in large, capital equipment type contracts has certain advantages. �One of them, that I noticed years ago, is that the level of new orders almost always reflects an accurate prediction of which way the general economy was heading, usually about 6 months before it became a current topic of discussion in the media. Last year my former company (now my oldest son's) had a tough year with a major slowdown in new order activity and, in some cases, cancellation or postponement of planned orders by several customers. �The situation was not unique to the company as many others involved in similar, high cost capital equipment businesses experienced the same slowdown. This has all changed. �In the past 30 days the company has received over $6M in new contracts and the quoting activity for more has picked up substantially. �If this continues, and past history says it will, 2008 will be a very busy year. �I'll betcha that by May or June all the talk will be about how robust the US economy is. Eisboch Well let's hope so. Boat sales in the Pacific NW, measured in units, were off 17% 3Q07 vs. 3Q06. The Marine Trade association tired to put a bright spin on the numbers, noting that the dollar volume of the sales was actually 1% higher than last year. The dollar volume is less meaningful, as boats that sell for more money also cost more money, and a 17% dip in volume is going to wipe out a lot more gross profit than a 1% increase in total sales dollars will restore. The higher total dollar volume coupled with the 17% dip in unit sales reflects the fact that Wally Lunchbucket is a lot more woried about his job, his budget, the cost of fuel, and so forth than is Daddy Warbucks. I sense very little slowdown in the $500k and up market (not that it's ever a beehive of activity).......but a lot of the small, trailer boat guys selling new boats for under $100k are singing the blues. Let's see what happens this spring. The economy is cyclical, regardless of which political party is in power. Every so often it slows down, and all the marginal operators who are so inefficient that they are barely making it when things are booming get weeded out by reality. That's probably a good thing in the long run. I do pity the poor FED. What a quandry. So much of the stuff we buy to day is imported that low interest rates *really* fuel inflation. Not only do people borrow for more consumer spending, but the low rates depress the US dollar on the exchanges and as a result the prices for almost everything go up. Raise the rates to shore up the dollar, and while prices will not be driven up as quickly by a weak foreign exchange our less-than-robust economy can hardly afford a slow down in consumer spending due to higher monthly payments. |
Brightening economic outlook?
"Eisboch" wrote in message ... Having a small company that is involved in large, capital equipment type contracts has certain advantages. One of them, that I noticed years ago, is that the level of new orders almost always reflects an accurate prediction of which way the general economy was heading, usually about 6 months before it became a current topic of discussion in the media. Last year my former company (now my oldest son's) had a tough year with a major slowdown in new order activity and, in some cases, cancellation or postponement of planned orders by several customers. The situation was not unique to the company as many others involved in similar, high cost capital equipment businesses experienced the same slowdown. This has all changed. In the past 30 days the company has received over $6M in new contracts and the quoting activity for more has picked up substantially. If this continues, and past history says it will, 2008 will be a very busy year. I'll betcha that by May or June all the talk will be about how robust the US economy is. Eisboch I hope you're right but I doubt it. The housing market is up to its eyeballs in forclosures with more to come and credit card debt is at an all time high. I've worked for the same company for 23 years (printing/machining ) and watched our industry dwindle slowly since the early 90's. Things have sucked pretty bad for the last 2 years and its a miricle we're still here. Unfortunately, the writing is on the wall as we have enough money left for about 1 more pay period. Too bad its not boating season as it looks like I might have some free time on my hands coming up. Don |
Brightening economic outlook?
On Tue, 1 Jan 2008 22:59:52 -0800 (PST), Chuck Gould
wrote: On Jan 1, 4:31?am, "Eisboch" wrote: Having a small company that is involved in large, capital equipment type contracts has certain advantages. ?One of them, that I noticed years ago, is that the level of new orders almost always reflects an accurate prediction of which way the general economy was heading, usually about 6 months before it became a current topic of discussion in the media. Last year my former company (now my oldest son's) had a tough year with a major slowdown in new order activity and, in some cases, cancellation or postponement of planned orders by several customers. ?The situation was not unique to the company as many others involved in similar, high cost capital equipment businesses experienced the same slowdown. This has all changed. ?In the past 30 days the company has received over $6M in new contracts and the quoting activity for more has picked up substantially. ?If this continues, and past history says it will, 2008 will be a very busy year. ?I'll betcha that by May or June all the talk will be about how robust the US economy is. Eisboch Well let's hope so. Boat sales in the Pacific NW, measured in units, were off 17% 3Q07 vs. 3Q06. The Marine Trade association tired to put a bright spin on the numbers, noting that the dollar volume of the sales was actually 1% higher than last year. The dollar volume is less meaningful, as boats that sell for more money also cost more money, and a 17% dip in volume is going to wipe out a lot more gross profit than a 1% increase in total sales dollars will restore. The higher total dollar volume coupled with the 17% dip in unit sales reflects the fact that Wally Lunchbucket is a lot more woried about his job, his budget, the cost of fuel, and so forth than is Daddy Warbucks. I sense very little slowdown in the $500k and up market (not that it's ever a beehive of activity).......but a lot of the small, trailer boat guys selling new boats for under $100k are singing the blues. Let's see what happens this spring. The economy is cyclical, regardless of which political party is in power. Every so often it slows down, and all the marginal operators who are so inefficient that they are barely making it when things are booming get weeded out by reality. That's probably a good thing in the long run. I do pity the poor FED. What a quandry. So much of the stuff we buy to day is imported that low interest rates *really* fuel inflation. Not only do people borrow for more consumer spending, but the low rates depress the US dollar on the exchanges and as a result the prices for almost everything go up. Raise the rates to shore up the dollar, and while prices will not be driven up as quickly by a weak foreign exchange our less-than-robust economy can hardly afford a slow down in consumer spending due to higher monthly payments. What do you think increasing taxes will do to our 'less than robust' economy, Chuck? -- JohnH "Opa of 6" |
Brightening economic outlook?
Eisboch wrote: "HK" wrote in message ... Eisboch wrote: I'll betcha that by May or June all the talk will be about how robust the US economy is. Eisboch In the face of another half million American families losing their homes, the creation of mostly "McJob" jobs, a few million more Americans without health insurance, slumping retail sales, and a few more cuts in the prime rate that have no impact? Are you pimping for a job in the remains of the Bush Administration? :} Heh. Hardly. Just reporting a promising trend amidst all the doom and gloom we get saturated with everyday. Eisboch Well, I've said this before, that if Ebay is any kind of an economic barometer, I've noticed that "used" boats are selling higher than the same compatable crafts did a couple years ago. This winter which is usually seems to be a buyers market. Boats are tending to sell for better than in the spring time when people are boat hungry with tax refund checks in hand. |
Brightening economic outlook?
On Jan 2, 11:39*am, John H. wrote:
On Tue, 1 Jan 2008 22:59:52 -0800 (PST), Chuck Gould wrote: On Jan 1, 4:31?am, "Eisboch" wrote: Having a small company that is involved in large, capital equipment type contracts has certain advantages. ?One of them, that I noticed years ago, is that the level of new orders almost always reflects an accurate prediction of which way the general economy was heading, usually about 6 months before it became a current topic of discussion in the media. Last year my former company (now my oldest son's) had a tough year with a major slowdown in new order activity and, in some cases, cancellation or postponement of planned orders by several customers. ?The situation was not unique to the company as many others involved in similar, high cost capital equipment businesses experienced the same slowdown. This has all changed. ?In the past 30 days the company has received over $6M in new contracts and the quoting activity for more has picked up substantially. ?If this continues, and past history says it will, 2008 will be a very busy year. ?I'll betcha that by May or June all the talk will be about how robust the US economy is. Eisboch Well let's hope so. Boat sales in the Pacific NW, measured in units, were off 17% 3Q07 vs. 3Q06. The Marine Trade association tired to put a bright spin on the numbers, noting that the dollar volume of the sales was actually 1% higher than last year. The dollar volume is less meaningful, as boats that sell for more money also cost more money, and a 17% dip in volume is going to wipe out a lot more gross profit than a 1% increase in total sales dollars will restore. The higher total dollar volume coupled with the 17% dip in unit sales reflects the fact that Wally Lunchbucket is a lot more woried about his job, his budget, the cost of fuel, and so forth than is Daddy Warbucks. I sense very little slowdown in the $500k and up market (not that it's ever a beehive of activity).......but a lot of the small, trailer boat guys selling new boats for under $100k are singing the blues. Let's see what happens this spring. The economy is cyclical, regardless of which political party is in power. Every so often it slows down, and all the marginal operators who are so inefficient that they are barely making it when things are booming get weeded out by reality. That's probably a good thing in the long run. I do pity the poor FED. What a quandry. So much of the stuff we buy to day is imported that low interest rates *really* fuel inflation. Not only do people borrow for more consumer spending, but the low rates depress the US dollar on the exchanges and as a result the prices for almost everything go up. Raise the rates to shore up the dollar, and while prices will not be driven up as quickly by a weak foreign exchange our less-than-robust economy can hardly afford a slow down in consumer spending due to higher monthly payments. What do you think increasing taxes will do to our 'less than robust' economy, Chuck? -- * JohnH "Opa of 6"- Hide quoted text - - Show quoted text - Pay for Bush's Iraq folly. |
Brightening economic outlook?
Tim wrote:
Eisboch wrote: "HK" wrote in message ... Eisboch wrote: I'll betcha that by May or June all the talk will be about how robust the US economy is. Eisboch In the face of another half million American families losing their homes, the creation of mostly "McJob" jobs, a few million more Americans without health insurance, slumping retail sales, and a few more cuts in the prime rate that have no impact? Are you pimping for a job in the remains of the Bush Administration? :} Heh. Hardly. Just reporting a promising trend amidst all the doom and gloom we get saturated with everyday. Eisboch Well, I've said this before, that if Ebay is any kind of an economic barometer, I've noticed that "used" boats are selling higher than the same compatable crafts did a couple years ago. This winter which is usually seems to be a buyers market. Boats are tending to sell for better than in the spring time when people are boat hungry with tax refund checks in hand. There sure seem to be a lot of boats for sale. I passed three on my visit down to the bay yesterday, and they weren't out there on the edge of the road last week. Went down to the nearby marina and also saw a lot of FOR SALE signs, especially on the larger boats. Didn't see or notice any prices, just a lot of FOR SALE signs. -- George W. Bush - the 43rd Best President Ever! |
Brightening economic outlook?
On Wed, 2 Jan 2008 11:28:13 -0500, D-unit penned the following well
considered thoughts to the readers of rec.boats: |I've worked for the same |company for 23 years (printing/machining ) and |watched our industry dwindle slowly since the early |90's. Doing what? Rotogravure? Blanking? Steel Rule Dies/Embossing? Been there done that.... it sucks.... -- Grady-White Gulfstream, out of Oak Island, NC. Homepage http://pamandgene.idleplay.net/ Rec.boats at Lee Yeaton's Bayguide http://www.thebayguide.com/rec.boats ----------------- www.Newsgroup-Binaries.com - *Completion*Retention*Speed* Access your favorite newsgroups from home or on the road ----------------- |
Brightening economic outlook?
"D-unit" cof42_AT_embarqmail.com wrote in message ... I hope you're right but I doubt it. The housing market is up to its eyeballs in forclosures with more to come and credit card debt is at an all time high. I've worked for the same company for 23 years (printing/machining ) and watched our industry dwindle slowly since the early 90's. Things have sucked pretty bad for the last 2 years and its a miricle we're still here. Unfortunately, the writing is on the wall as we have enough money left for about 1 more pay period. Too bad its not boating season as it looks like I might have some free time on my hands coming up. Don I hate to hear stories like that. Is the downturn in your industry economy related or is it due to diminishing requirements for printed material? Eisboch (went through many close calls over the years) |
Brightening economic outlook?
Small offset printing Gene.
We make IR dryers/Powder Spray attachments for the 11x17 market (and a few larger ones) AB Dick, ATF Davidson, Multigraphics, Heidelberg, etc... We have a machine shop and make all our own parts (I think Im going to miss having access to that the most. It came in quite handy back during the Maco refurb days. I could walk in with a mini-project back in those days and 3 guys would fight over who was going to get to work on it.) Don "Gene Kearns" wrote in message ... On Wed, 2 Jan 2008 11:28:13 -0500, D-unit penned the following well considered thoughts to the readers of rec.boats: |I've worked for the same |company for 23 years (printing/machining ) and |watched our industry dwindle slowly since the early |90's. Doing what? Rotogravure? Blanking? Steel Rule Dies/Embossing? Been there done that.... it sucks.... -- Grady-White Gulfstream, out of Oak Island, NC. Homepage http://pamandgene.idleplay.net/ Rec.boats at Lee Yeaton's Bayguide http://www.thebayguide.com/rec.boats ----------------- www.Newsgroup-Binaries.com - *Completion*Retention*Speed* Access your favorite newsgroups from home or on the road ----------------- |
Brightening economic outlook?
"Eisboch" wrote in message ... "D-unit" cof42_AT_embarqmail.com wrote in message ... I hope you're right but I doubt it. The housing market is up to its eyeballs in forclosures with more to come and credit card debt is at an all time high. I've worked for the same company for 23 years (printing/machining ) and watched our industry dwindle slowly since the early 90's. Things have sucked pretty bad for the last 2 years and its a miricle we're still here. Unfortunately, the writing is on the wall as we have enough money left for about 1 more pay period. Too bad its not boating season as it looks like I might have some free time on my hands coming up. Don I hate to hear stories like that. Is the downturn in your industry economy related or is it due to diminishing requirements for printed material? Computer/Digital technology is the culprit. Most folks are happy with the quality of color copies (or the like) rather than *real* offset printing. Eisboch (went through many close calls over the years) We've had so many I've lost count but Im afraid its a little too close this time. Just the same, I hope you're right about the economy. I would like to see the real estate market rebound soon. db |
Brightening economic outlook?
D-unit wrote:
Small offset printing Gene. We make IR dryers/Powder Spray attachments for the 11x17 market (and a few larger ones) AB Dick, ATF Davidson, Multigraphics, Heidelberg, etc... We have a machine shop and make all our own parts (I think Im going to miss having access to that the most. It came in quite handy back during the Maco refurb days. I could walk in with a mini-project back in those days and 3 guys would fight over who was going to get to work on it.) Don "Gene Kearns" wrote in message ... On Wed, 2 Jan 2008 11:28:13 -0500, D-unit penned the following well considered thoughts to the readers of rec.boats: |I've worked for the same |company for 23 years (printing/machining ) and |watched our industry dwindle slowly since the early |90's. Doing what? Rotogravure? Blanking? Steel Rule Dies/Embossing? Been there done that.... it sucks.... -- Grady-White Gulfstream, out of Oak Island, NC. Homepage http://pamandgene.idleplay.net/ Rec.boats at Lee Yeaton's Bayguide http://www.thebayguide.com/rec.boats ----------------- www.Newsgroup-Binaries.com - *Completion*Retention*Speed* Access your favorite newsgroups from home or on the road ----------------- I've love to have a nice 11x17 offset press. It's the workhorse of all manner of campaigns! -- George W. Bush - the 43rd Best President Ever! |
Brightening economic outlook?
HK wrote:
D-unit wrote: Small offset printing Gene. We make IR dryers/Powder Spray attachments for the 11x17 market (and a few larger ones) AB Dick, ATF Davidson, Multigraphics, Heidelberg, etc... We have a machine shop and make all our own parts (I think Im going to miss having access to that the most. It came in quite handy back during the Maco refurb days. I could walk in with a mini-project back in those days and 3 guys would fight over who was going to get to work on it.) Don "Gene Kearns" wrote in message ... On Wed, 2 Jan 2008 11:28:13 -0500, D-unit penned the following well considered thoughts to the readers of rec.boats: |I've worked for the same |company for 23 years (printing/machining ) and |watched our industry dwindle slowly since the early |90's. Doing what? Rotogravure? Blanking? Steel Rule Dies/Embossing? Been there done that.... it sucks.... -- Grady-White Gulfstream, out of Oak Island, NC. Homepage http://pamandgene.idleplay.net/ Rec.boats at Lee Yeaton's Bayguide http://www.thebayguide.com/rec.boats ----------------- www.Newsgroup-Binaries.com - *Completion*Retention*Speed* Access your favorite newsgroups from home or on the road ----------------- I've love to have a nice 11x17 offset press. It's the workhorse of all manner of campaigns! Why don't you buy one? |
Brightening economic outlook?
On Wed, 2 Jan 2008 12:35:09 -0500, D-unit penned the following well
considered thoughts to the readers of rec.boats: |Small offset printing Gene. | |We make IR dryers/Powder Spray attachments |for the 11x17 market (and a few larger ones) | |AB Dick, ATF Davidson, Multigraphics, Heidelberg, etc... | |We have a machine shop and make all our own parts (I think |Im going to miss having access to that the most. It came in |quite handy back during the Maco refurb days. I could walk |in with a mini-project back in those days and 3 guys would |fight over who was going to get to work on it.) Gotcha.... most of the stuff I worked on was for much larger presses... though I've spent my time in hell pulling the handles on Multiliths and a few ABDs.... before moving into the die and blanking industry -- Grady-White Gulfstream, out of Oak Island, NC. Homepage http://pamandgene.idleplay.net/ Rec.boats at Lee Yeaton's Bayguide http://www.thebayguide.com/rec.boats ----------------- www.Newsgroup-Binaries.com - *Completion*Retention*Speed* Access your favorite newsgroups from home or on the road ----------------- |
Brightening economic outlook?
On Wed, 2 Jan 2008 12:34:46 -0500, Eisboch penned the following well
considered thoughts to the readers of rec.boats: | |"D-unit" cof42_AT_embarqmail.com wrote in message ... | | | | I hope you're right but I doubt it. The housing market | is up to its eyeballs in forclosures with more to come and | credit card debt is at an all time high. | | I've worked for the same | company for 23 years (printing/machining ) and | watched our industry dwindle slowly since the early | 90's. Things have sucked pretty bad for the last 2 years | and its a miricle we're still here. Unfortunately, the | writing is on the wall as we have enough money left | for about 1 more pay period. Too bad its not boating | season as it looks like I might have some free time on | my hands coming up. | | Don | |I hate to hear stories like that. Is the downturn in your industry economy |related or is it due to diminishing requirements for printed material? | |Eisboch (went through many close calls over the years) Except for small and/or time critical jobs, most of your printing/publishing has gone offshore..... -- Grady-White Gulfstream, out of Oak Island, NC. Homepage http://pamandgene.idleplay.net/ Rec.boats at Lee Yeaton's Bayguide http://www.thebayguide.com/rec.boats ----------------- www.Newsgroup-Binaries.com - *Completion*Retention*Speed* Access your favorite newsgroups from home or on the road ----------------- |
Brightening economic outlook?
Gene Kearns wrote:
On Wed, 2 Jan 2008 12:34:46 -0500, Eisboch penned the following well considered thoughts to the readers of rec.boats: | |"D-unit" cof42_AT_embarqmail.com wrote in message ... | | | | I hope you're right but I doubt it. The housing market | is up to its eyeballs in forclosures with more to come and | credit card debt is at an all time high. | | I've worked for the same | company for 23 years (printing/machining ) and | watched our industry dwindle slowly since the early | 90's. Things have sucked pretty bad for the last 2 years | and its a miricle we're still here. Unfortunately, the | writing is on the wall as we have enough money left | for about 1 more pay period. Too bad its not boating | season as it looks like I might have some free time on | my hands coming up. | | Don | |I hate to hear stories like that. Is the downturn in your industry economy |related or is it due to diminishing requirements for printed material? | |Eisboch (went through many close calls over the years) Except for small and/or time critical jobs, most of your printing/publishing has gone offshore..... Thank goodness that isn't true for printing jobs of my clients. We print only with U.S. or Canadian shops, and with U.S./Canadian paper and inks. |
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