On Wed, 03 Nov 2004 01:52:03 GMT, (Karl
Denninger) wrote:


The exit polls had one major problem this time

The biggest problem with exit polls currently is they can't take into
account electronic fraud.

bb

In article ,
Gould 0738 wrote:


I think you're nuts.

Thanks karl.

Which statement did you think was the nuttier?

My hope that the election would be decided by an obvious margin, one way or the
other- or my observation that a clearly legitimate win will be important for
either candidate?

I agree with both of those sentiments Chuck. It appeared you were
basically calling the election for Kerry based on the exit polls.

However, I do not believe that Kerry's odds are looking good right
now. The exit polls were clearly wrong in at least a couple of cases
so far, and the reason (improper split of gender among those polled)
appears to have been identified. The misrepresentation of the sample
is large enough (close to 10%) that the swing would easily be 3-4% in
the results .vs. actual returns. This has been confirmed in Virginia -
if it holds elsewhere, Kerry is toast and it indeed will not be close.

Since women tend to vote Democrat, this skews the results - with all these
states being within a couple of points, the error is much larger than the
margin.

I'm looking at Florida's returns right now on a county-by-county basis, and
were I Kerry I wouldn't like what I was seeing. With the exception of
Miami-Dade the counties that should have broken for Kerry big haven't -
and the counties that break heavily for Bush aren't yet in - yet Bush is
comfortably ahead among those counties that HAVE been counted.

The truly ugly part of it for Kerry is that some of the I-4 corridor
counties ARE in, the turnout was huge, and while these counties went for
Gore in 2000, they've gone for Bush in a big way this time around - showing
that the turnout "projections" (e.g. big turnout helps 'crats) probably
isn't going to hold up this time.

If Florida and Ohio both go for Bush then there is basically no way for
Kerry to pull it off.

--
--
Karl Denninger ) Internet Consultant & Kids Rights Activist
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In article ,
bb wrote:


On Wed, 03 Nov 2004 01:52:03 GMT, (Karl
Denninger) wrote:


The exit polls had one major problem this time

The biggest problem with exit polls currently is they can't take into
account electronic fraud.

bb

The exit polls were overrepresenting women by nearly 10%.

That will result in a swing of 3-4% in the results towards Democrats.

If you take the exit polls and move them 3-4% towards Bush, he wins
Florida, Ohio, Virginia and a whole host of other states that looked like
Kerry wins this afternoon.

Virginia has already confirmed this shift, and it looks from a county-level
view in Florida like it may be confirmed here as well.

--
--
Karl Denninger ) Internet Consultant & Kids Rights Activist
http://www.denninger.net My home on the net - links to everything I do!
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"JimH" wrote in message
...


And that qualifies him as being a capable candidate for POTUS to you?


You're probably right...better to vote for a boozing slacker.

In article ,
Harry Krause wrote:


Karl Denninger wrote:com,

The exit polls were overrepresenting women by nearly 10%.

That will result in a swing of 3-4% in the results towards Democrats.

If you take the exit polls and move them 3-4% towards Bush, he wins
Florida, Ohio, Virginia and a whole host of other states that looked like
Kerry wins this afternoon.

There are approximately 250,000 absentee ballots in Florida that have
not yet been added to the totals you are seeing. Florida apparently is
as much a mess this time as last time.

Incorrect; the county-by-county breakdown tells all (they specifically
tabulate if the absentee vote is included, and don't consider the count in
a given county "complete" until it is...)

--
--
Karl Denninger ) Internet Consultant & Kids Rights Activist
http://www.denninger.net My home on the net - links to everything I do!
http://scubaforum.org Your UNCENSORED place to talk about DIVING!
http://www.spamcuda.net SPAM FREE mailboxes - FREE FOR A LIMITED TIME!
http://genesis3.blogspot.com Musings Of A Sentient Mind

In article ,
Gould 0738 wrote:


I agree with both of those sentiments Chuck. It appeared you were
basically calling the election for Kerry based on the exit polls.

You mixed my comments up with another post to which I was responding.

It ain't over yet. May not be over for days, but lets hope the will of the 50
states (the people don't count in this race) is clear by later toninght.

I think it will be over later this evening - Florida is now roughly 75% in,
including the "big" democrat counties.

Ohio is tougher for me, because I don't have nearly as good a "feel" for
the county breakdown there.

As things sit right now Bush is ahead by close to 200,000 votes - to make
up that differential Kerry has a hell of an uphill climb, given that his
stronghold counties are either largely or entirely in at this point.

The exit polls were pretty clearly wrong.

--
--
Karl Denninger ) Internet Consultant & Kids Rights Activist
http://www.denninger.net My home on the net - links to everything I do!
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http://www.spamcuda.net SPAM FREE mailboxes - FREE FOR A LIMITED TIME!
http://genesis3.blogspot.com Musings Of A Sentient Mind

In article ,
Harry Krause wrote:


Karl Denninger wrote:
In article ,
Gould 0738 wrote:


I agree with both of those sentiments Chuck. It appeared you were
basically calling the election for Kerry based on the exit polls.

You mixed my comments up with another post to which I was responding.

It ain't over yet. May not be over for days, but lets hope the will of the 50
states (the people don't count in this race) is clear by later toninght.

I think it will be over later this evening - Florida is now roughly 75% in,
including the "big" democrat counties.

Ohio is tougher for me, because I don't have nearly as good a "feel" for
the county breakdown there.

As things sit right now Bush is ahead by close to 200,000 votes - to make
up that differential Kerry has a hell of an uphill climb, given that his
stronghold counties are either largely or entirely in at this point.

The exit polls were pretty clearly wrong.

--


Probably not. My guess is that "adjustments" were made on the
receipt-less electronic voting machines in Florida and Ohio. Of course,
with no paper trail, how would one prove this? How convenient.

Right out of the Democrat Party playbook.

"Even if you can't find evidence of fraud or intimidation, accuse people of
it anyway."

Never mind that the counties which went heavily Kerry are all run by
Democrats. Up here in the Panhandle we use mark-sense paper ballots,
which are easily recounted (either by machine or hand)

Thus, you want to now accuse a Democrat Party machine, which ran the
election in those counties, of committing fraud for the REPUBLICAN
candidate?

That stretches credibility just a TINY bit, don't 'ya think?

--
--
Karl Denninger ) Internet Consultant & Kids Rights Activist
http://www.denninger.net My home on the net - links to everything I do!
http://scubaforum.org Your UNCENSORED place to talk about DIVING!
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http://genesis3.blogspot.com Musings Of A Sentient Mind

"Harry Krause" wrote in message
...

I've posited more than once that federal elections ought to be run by
federal officials,

Harry,
You posting your preference in rec.boats will not have any impact on making
any changes.
Why don't you do something about it.

I owned a '64 Corvair Spyder with the four separate carbs, scattered in 4
different areas of the engine. Crazy set up, but it would peel a wheel in
4th gear.


"Eisboch" wrote in message
...
Don White wrote:
"Short Wave Sportfishing" wrote in
message
snip

For the record, I didn't vote for President as it's a foregone
conclusion here in CT for one and I just couldn't bring myself to vote
for either of the two goons running. Voted for all the other offices
though.

All the best,

Tom
--------------


Why didn't you support Ralph. After all, he warned us about the Corvair.



I thought Corvairs were pretty cool, particularly the '64 Spyder.


Eisboch

In article ,
Harry Krause wrote:

Karl Denninger wrote:
Right out of the Democrat Party playbook.

"Even if you can't find evidence of fraud or intimidation, accuse people of
it anyway."

Never mind that the counties which went heavily Kerry are all run by
Democrats. Up here in the Panhandle we use mark-sense paper ballots,
which are easily recounted (either by machine or hand)

Thus, you want to now accuse a Democrat Party machine, which ran the
election in those counties, of committing fraud for the REPUBLICAN
candidate?

That stretches credibility just a TINY bit, don't 'ya think?

--

Try to think this through, Karl. There's more to Florida than Miami-Dade
and Evangelistia, where you live, eh? Anywhere there are receipt-less
electronic voting machines in Florida, there are opportunities for
fraud. And when the GOP runs the entire state, but for a few counties,
the opportunities are substantial.

I've posited more than once that federal elections ought to be run by
federal officials, on equipment that meets standards and provides both
the voter and the counters with hard receipts. Receipt-less electronic
voting machines are so much trash. There are electronic machines that
generate receipts.

You're correct.

Now explain why Theresa LaPore, who's a Democrat in a heavily-democratic
county, decided to buy and install in her county the machines that do not
generate receipts - in the very county where the chad fun was present.

PS: The majority of the heavily republican counties in Florida use and have
used mark-sense cards with a reader at the point of ballot deposit that
will not accept an overvoted ballot.

Indeed, its simply amazing - the Democrat counties are the ones who adopted
these electronic machines, in the main. Do 'ya think they thought perhaps
they could pull some funny bizness - like in Pennsylvania where there were
machines in heavily-Democrat counties that STARTED with votes on the
tabulators - but it just didn't work out for them?

Might be....

Florida is now 88% in, with Bush having a margin of about 250,000 votes.

Florida looks pretty safe in Bush's column Harry... the remaining votes
would have to break roughly 75% for Kerry for him to win here.

Ain't gonna happen.

--
--
Karl Denninger ) Internet Consultant & Kids Rights Activist
http://www.denninger.net My home on the net - links to everything I do!
http://scubaforum.org Your UNCENSORED place to talk about DIVING!
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http://genesis3.blogspot.com Musings Of A Sentient Mind