In article ,
Gould 0738 wrote:


I think you're nuts.

Thanks karl.

Which statement did you think was the nuttier?

My hope that the election would be decided by an obvious margin, one way or the
other- or my observation that a clearly legitimate win will be important for
either candidate?

I agree with both of those sentiments Chuck. It appeared you were
basically calling the election for Kerry based on the exit polls.

However, I do not believe that Kerry's odds are looking good right
now. The exit polls were clearly wrong in at least a couple of cases
so far, and the reason (improper split of gender among those polled)
appears to have been identified. The misrepresentation of the sample
is large enough (close to 10%) that the swing would easily be 3-4% in
the results .vs. actual returns. This has been confirmed in Virginia -
if it holds elsewhere, Kerry is toast and it indeed will not be close.

Since women tend to vote Democrat, this skews the results - with all these
states being within a couple of points, the error is much larger than the
margin.

I'm looking at Florida's returns right now on a county-by-county basis, and
were I Kerry I wouldn't like what I was seeing. With the exception of
Miami-Dade the counties that should have broken for Kerry big haven't -
and the counties that break heavily for Bush aren't yet in - yet Bush is
comfortably ahead among those counties that HAVE been counted.

The truly ugly part of it for Kerry is that some of the I-4 corridor
counties ARE in, the turnout was huge, and while these counties went for
Gore in 2000, they've gone for Bush in a big way this time around - showing
that the turnout "projections" (e.g. big turnout helps 'crats) probably
isn't going to hold up this time.

If Florida and Ohio both go for Bush then there is basically no way for
Kerry to pull it off.

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Karl Denninger ) Internet Consultant & Kids Rights Activist
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