On Mon, 13 Apr 2020 09:37:32 -0400, "Mr. Luddite" wrote:

On 4/13/2020 9:10 AM, Its Me wrote:


The social distancing was/is to flatten the curve. To stretch out the infection over a longer period of time, as you have pointed out.

So now Fauci, who said on Jan 26th that the US didn't need to worry about Corona, is backtracking and saying that earlier distancing would have saved lives. This guy seems to be in political cover-his-ass mode.



I don't know if he's trying to cover his ass or not. My impression of
him is that he just analyzes data through the myopic view of a
scientist.

I came across a timeline written by someone else that I think is a
fair historical summary of the early stages of all this. Plenty of
mistakes were made:

-------------------------------------------

Dec. 1: The first known patient

Dec. 30: Dr. Li Wenliang, at Wuhan Central Hospital, warned
colleagues about a cluster of patients being treated for
viral pneumonia

Dec. 31: China alerted the WHO of a spate of illnesses in
Wuhan, China.

Jan. 1: China shut down the Huanan Wholesale Seafood Market
in Wuhan.

Jan. 10: The genetic sequence of the isolated coronavirus
was shared.

Jan. 11: The first death was reported.

Jan 14: (WHO) repeated China’s claim that coronavirus was
not contagious among humans

Jan. 20: The first human-to-human transmission was reported
by a Chinese expert.

Jan 22: Trump said, "we have it totally under control.
It’s one person coming in from China, and we
have it under control. It’s going to be just fine."

Jan 23: Chinese authorities implemented a strict nationwide
travel ban, but allowed International flights.

Jan 24: Bill de Blasio said, “We urge all New Yorkers to
continue to pursue their everyday activities and
routines”

Jan 25: Good Morning America:
"People should be more concerned right now with the
flu in this country."

Jan 26: New York City’s health commissioner, Dr. Oxiris
Barbot said, “We are encouraging New Yorkers to
go about their everyday lives... those “who had
recently traveled from Wuhan were not being urged
to self-quarantine or avoid large public gatherings.”

Jan. 30: The WHO declared a public health emergency of international
concern.

Feb 1: President Trump instilled China travel ban. New York
City had its first suspected case of coronavirus.

Feb 2: NYC health commissioner Bardot “As we gear up to
celebrate the Lunar New Year in NYC, I want to
assure New Yorkers that there is no reason for anyone
to change their holiday plans, avoid the subway, or
certain parts of the city because of coronavirus.”

Feb 4: China’s consul general in New York, Huang Ping,
thanked the Chinese-American community and other
concerned Americans on Tuesday for their aid in
battling the coronavirus outbreak, and criticized
what he described as “an overreaction by the
American government in severely restricting travel
to and from China.”

Feb 5: New York Times "Who says it's not safe to travel
to China? The coronavirus travel ban is unjust
and doesn't work anyway." NYC Health Commissioner
Barbot on Twitter, “Today our city is celebrating
the Lunar New Year parade in Chinatown... I want
to remind everyone to enjoy the parade and not
change any plans due to misinformation spreading
about coronavirus.”

Feb 6: Bardot: “The important thing for New Yorkers to
know is that in the city currently, their risk is
low and our city preparedness is high...We’re
telling New Yorkers, go about your lives, take the
subway, go out, enjoy life. . . If it were likely
that it could be transmitted casually, we would be
seeing a lot more cases.”

Feb 9: Chinatown in New York City held its annual Lunar
New Year parade. Surgical masks were nearly absent
from this parade. Councilman Mark D. Levine on
Twitter, “In powerful show of defiance of coronavirus
scare, huge crowds gathering in NYC’s Chinatown for
ceremony ahead of annual Lunar New Year parade. Chants
of ‘Be Strong Wuhan!’ If you are staying away, you are
missing out.”

Feb 12: The House Judiciary Committee on voted, 22-10, to
terminate President Trump's expanded travel ban and
rein in presidential authority to issue such
travel restrictions.

Feb 13: New York City Council speaker Corey Johnson “It is
important to support the Chinese community in New
York City...There is no need to avoid public spaces.
I urge everyone to dine and shop as usual.”

Bill de Blasio: "This should not stop you from
going about your life. It should not stop you
from going to Chinatown and going out to eat. I am
going to do that today myself.”

Feb 25: Dr. Anthony Fauci “You need to do nothing different
than you’re already doing"

Feb. 26: In a press conference, President Trump said the risk
to Americans remains low.

Feb 28: A German team of doctors in Wuhan, China, “we discovered
that shedding of potentially infectious virus may
occur in persons who have no fever and no signs or
only minor signs of infection.”

Feb 29: The Food and Drug Administration declared that other
labs besides their own could develop their own
coronavirus tests.

March 1: Health officials announced the first confirmed case
in New York.


March 2: Governor Andrew Cuomo: “In this situation, the facts
defeat fear, because the reality is reassuring...
The woman who has now tested positive, she’s at home,
she’s not even in a hospital, so the perspective here
is important. And the facts, once you know the facts,
once you know the reality, it is reassuring, and we
should relax, because that’s what’s dictated by the
reality of the situation. I get the emotion, I
understand; I understand the anxiety. I’m a
native-born New Yorker, we live with anxiety.
But the facts don’t back it up here. . . . What
happened in other countries versus what happened here,
we don’t even think it’s going to be as bad as it was
in other countries.”

I'll bet you didn't get that from the NYTimes.
--

Freedom Isn't Free!

On 4/13/2020 9:39 AM, John wrote:
On Mon, 13 Apr 2020 06:10:47 -0700 (PDT), Its Me wrote:

On Monday, April 13, 2020 at 8:31:06 AM UTC-4, Mr. Luddite wrote:
On 4/13/2020 8:18 AM, John wrote:
On Mon, 13 Apr 2020 08:05:37 -0400, "Mr. Luddite" wrote:

On 4/13/2020 7:45 AM, John wrote:
On Sun, 12 Apr 2020 20:57:02 -0400, wrote:

On Sun, 12 Apr 2020 17:33:55 -0400, John wrote:

On Sun, 12 Apr 2020 17:20:55 -0400, wrote:

On Sun, 12 Apr 2020 08:34:56 -0400, "Mr. Luddite"
wrote:

On 4/11/2020 9:57 PM, wrote:
On Sat, 11 Apr 2020 15:23:13 -0400, Keyser Soze
wrote:

On 4/11/20 1:32 PM, wrote:
On Sat, 11 Apr 2020 09:29:26 -0400, Keyser Soze
wrote:

On 4/10/20 9:42 PM, wrote:
On Fri, 10 Apr 2020 16:31:10 -0400, Keyser Soze
wrote:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Cud7...ature=youtu.be

Fauci is just hoping nobody compiles the things he said that turn out
to be wrong. He might cost them some grant money.


Oh, so you think Fauci is as intellectually full of **** as you are, eh?

He certainly seem to be very flexible in what he believes is true. The
"facts" seem to change daily and mostly toward the idea that this was
a lot of hysterical hype. The CDC and NIH guidelines are letters in
the sand that disappear at every tide change ... IOW about twice a
day.


Indeed, Fauci is a scientist who absorbs new data and evaluates it.



Science seldom supports an estimate that changes by a factor of 3600%
in 2 weeks. (2.2 million to 60,000) . It also seems pretty unlikely
that science makes the leap from "A home made face mask is useless" to
recommending them for anyone in public.
Those are politically knee jerks, not science.
Nobody wants to tell Nanna she is wasting her time but I bet most
hospitals are throwing those home made face masks in the trash. I know
I would not be happy if my surgeon showed up with a Granny's "do rag"
on his face.


Not quite that bad Greg.

The estimate of 2.3 million deaths was based on doing *nothing*.

The estimates of up to 240K deaths which was reduced first to
84K and then to 60K are based on everyone following the CDC
recommendations precisely.

Since we are all likely to get it eventually, the only thing I see
this doing is "flattening the curve" and not having it all happen at
once, They pretty much say that too. It is unlikely a vaccine will be
here before this thing runs it' initial course. This curve is likely
to look more like a decreasing sine wave as the virus waxes and wanes
through society ... assuming we stay locked down and start venturing
out over time.

Good, you see the purpose - flattening the curve.

It still doesn't change your chances of being infected and at our age,
dying. It just prolongs the suspense.

Which is why I said early on that I'd as soon catch it quickly, before the
hospitals got full!
--

Freedom Isn't Free!



It's depressing to realize that once this is all over and assuming those
who became infected and recovered have a degree of immunity (although
not 100% confirmed) that us old farts who locked ourselves up in
isolation to avoid becoming infected will be the ones who remain
most at risk.

We may need to hibernate for a long, long time. :-)

That's the truth. I'm supposed to fly to Seattle in July for a wedding. Already
paid for five tickets. I'm having serious second thoughts about that trip. I'd
really hate to get out there, come down with the virus, and spend time in a
hospital there.

United will allow rescheduling the trip up to a year from the date the tickets
were purchased. We'll see, I reckon.

Also have a trip to Seattle planned for August. Motorcycle ride with my brother.
Having qualms about that one also. Alaska Air has the same rules as United.


Probably too early to tell but I have a hunch we'll still be dealing
with this for quite a while.

The social distancing was/is to flatten the curve. To stretch out the infection over a longer period of time, as you have pointed out.

So now Fauci, who said on Jan 26th that the US didn't need to worry about Corona, is backtracking and saying that earlier distancing would have saved lives. This guy seems to be in political cover-his-ass mode.

Perhaps he was listening to the 'on the spot' gurus from the WHO.
--

Freedom Isn't Free!



See the timeline I posted in reply to "Its Me".

Interesting summary of early stages of this.

Many forget that the House Judiciary Committee voted
to terminate Trump's travel bans from China and Europe
on Feb 12th and to limit his authority for future bans.

and:

Statement by Gov. Cuomo on March 2nd:

“In this situation, the facts defeat fear, because the reality
is reassuring...The woman who has now tested positive, she’s
at home, she’s not even in a hospital, so the perspective
here is important. And the facts, once you know the facts,
once you know the reality, it is reassuring, and we should
relax, because that’s what’s dictated by the reality of the
situation. I get the emotion, I understand; I understand the
anxiety. I’m a native-born New Yorker, we live with anxiety.
But the facts don’t back it up here. . . . What happened in
other countries versus what happened here, we don’t even
think it’s going to be as bad as it was in other countries.�

and:

On Feb 25th, Dr. Anthony Fauci said:

“You need to do nothing different than you’re already doing"

--
This email has been checked for viruses by AVG.
https://www.avg.com

On 4/13/2020 9:43 AM, John wrote:
On Mon, 13 Apr 2020 09:37:32 -0400, "Mr. Luddite" wrote:

On 4/13/2020 9:10 AM, Its Me wrote:


The social distancing was/is to flatten the curve. To stretch out the infection over a longer period of time, as you have pointed out.

So now Fauci, who said on Jan 26th that the US didn't need to worry about Corona, is backtracking and saying that earlier distancing would have saved lives. This guy seems to be in political cover-his-ass mode.



I don't know if he's trying to cover his ass or not. My impression of
him is that he just analyzes data through the myopic view of a
scientist.

I came across a timeline written by someone else that I think is a
fair historical summary of the early stages of all this. Plenty of
mistakes were made:

-------------------------------------------

Dec. 1: The first known patient

Dec. 30: Dr. Li Wenliang, at Wuhan Central Hospital, warned
colleagues about a cluster of patients being treated for
viral pneumonia

Dec. 31: China alerted the WHO of a spate of illnesses in
Wuhan, China.

Jan. 1: China shut down the Huanan Wholesale Seafood Market
in Wuhan.

Jan. 10: The genetic sequence of the isolated coronavirus
was shared.

Jan. 11: The first death was reported.

Jan 14: (WHO) repeated China’s claim that coronavirus was
not contagious among humans

Jan. 20: The first human-to-human transmission was reported
by a Chinese expert.

Jan 22: Trump said, "we have it totally under control.
It’s one person coming in from China, and we
have it under control. It’s going to be just fine."

Jan 23: Chinese authorities implemented a strict nationwide
travel ban, but allowed International flights.

Jan 24: Bill de Blasio said, “We urge all New Yorkers to
continue to pursue their everyday activities and
routines�

Jan 25: Good Morning America:
"People should be more concerned right now with the
flu in this country."

Jan 26: New York City’s health commissioner, Dr. Oxiris
Barbot said, “We are encouraging New Yorkers to
go about their everyday lives... those “who had
recently traveled from Wuhan were not being urged
to self-quarantine or avoid large public gatherings.�

Jan. 30: The WHO declared a public health emergency of international
concern.

Feb 1: President Trump instilled China travel ban. New York
City had its first suspected case of coronavirus.

Feb 2: NYC health commissioner Bardot “As we gear up to
celebrate the Lunar New Year in NYC, I want to
assure New Yorkers that there is no reason for anyone
to change their holiday plans, avoid the subway, or
certain parts of the city because of coronavirus.�

Feb 4: China’s consul general in New York, Huang Ping,
thanked the Chinese-American community and other
concerned Americans on Tuesday for their aid in
battling the coronavirus outbreak, and criticized
what he described as “an overreaction by the
American government in severely restricting travel
to and from China.�

Feb 5: New York Times "Who says it's not safe to travel
to China? The coronavirus travel ban is unjust
and doesn't work anyway." NYC Health Commissioner
Barbot on Twitter, “Today our city is celebrating
the Lunar New Year parade in Chinatown... I want
to remind everyone to enjoy the parade and not
change any plans due to misinformation spreading
about coronavirus.�

Feb 6: Bardot: “The important thing for New Yorkers to
know is that in the city currently, their risk is
low and our city preparedness is high...We’re
telling New Yorkers, go about your lives, take the
subway, go out, enjoy life. . . If it were likely
that it could be transmitted casually, we would be
seeing a lot more cases.�

Feb 9: Chinatown in New York City held its annual Lunar
New Year parade. Surgical masks were nearly absent
from this parade. Councilman Mark D. Levine on
Twitter, “In powerful show of defiance of coronavirus
scare, huge crowds gathering in NYC’s Chinatown for
ceremony ahead of annual Lunar New Year parade. Chants
of ‘Be Strong Wuhan!’ If you are staying away, you are
missing out.�

Feb 12: The House Judiciary Committee on voted, 22-10, to
terminate President Trump's expanded travel ban and
rein in presidential authority to issue such
travel restrictions.

Feb 13: New York City Council speaker Corey Johnson “It is
important to support the Chinese community in New
York City...There is no need to avoid public spaces.
I urge everyone to dine and shop as usual.�

Bill de Blasio: "This should not stop you from
going about your life. It should not stop you
from going to Chinatown and going out to eat. I am
going to do that today myself.�

Feb 25: Dr. Anthony Fauci “You need to do nothing different
than you’re already doing"

Feb. 26: In a press conference, President Trump said the risk
to Americans remains low.

Feb 28: A German team of doctors in Wuhan, China, “we discovered
that shedding of potentially infectious virus may
occur in persons who have no fever and no signs or
only minor signs of infection.�

Feb 29: The Food and Drug Administration declared that other
labs besides their own could develop their own
coronavirus tests.

March 1: Health officials announced the first confirmed case
in New York.


March 2: Governor Andrew Cuomo: “In this situation, the facts
defeat fear, because the reality is reassuring...
The woman who has now tested positive, she’s at home,
she’s not even in a hospital, so the perspective here
is important. And the facts, once you know the facts,
once you know the reality, it is reassuring, and we
should relax, because that’s what’s dictated by the
reality of the situation. I get the emotion, I
understand; I understand the anxiety. I’m a
native-born New Yorker, we live with anxiety.
But the facts don’t back it up here. . . . What
happened in other countries versus what happened here,
we don’t even think it’s going to be as bad as it was
in other countries.�

I'll bet you didn't get that from the NYTimes.


Nope. All factual though.


--
This email has been checked for viruses by AVG.
https://www.avg.com

On Sun, 12 Apr 2020 17:28:04 -0400, wrote:

On Sun, 12 Apr 2020 13:10:42 -0400 (EDT), justan wrote:

Wrote in message:
On Fri, 10 Apr 2020 16:31:10 -0400, Keyser Soze wrote:https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Cud7...=youtu.beFauci is just hoping nobody compiles the things he said that turn outto be wrong. He might cost them some grant money.

Fauci is just reacting to the available data. In the beginning
there was just models. You should wish that your mind will be as
sharp and flexable when you reach his age.

I understand the position Fauci is in but the flaw is having him on TV
a couple hours a day shooting from the hip on a situation that is
changing this fast. I suppose he is lucky the press isn't calling him
a liar too.

===

I think that people realize he's doing the best he can with the facts
available. He doesn't come across as playing politics or distorting
reality.

--
This email has been checked for viruses by AVG.
https://www.avg.com

On 4/13/2020 10:12 AM, wrote:
On Sun, 12 Apr 2020 17:28:04 -0400, wrote:

On Sun, 12 Apr 2020 13:10:42 -0400 (EDT), justan wrote:

Wrote in message:
On Fri, 10 Apr 2020 16:31:10 -0400, Keyser Soze wrote:https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Cud7...=youtu.beFauci is just hoping nobody compiles the things he said that turn outto be wrong. He might cost them some grant money.

Fauci is just reacting to the available data. In the beginning
there was just models. You should wish that your mind will be as
sharp and flexable when you reach his age.

I understand the position Fauci is in but the flaw is having him on TV
a couple hours a day shooting from the hip on a situation that is
changing this fast. I suppose he is lucky the press isn't calling him
a liar too.

===

I think that people realize he's doing the best he can with the facts
available. He doesn't come across as playing politics or distorting
reality.



The only one the press calls a "liar" is Trump, even if he is giving
information that he belives to be true at the time.



--
This email has been checked for viruses by AVG.
https://www.avg.com

On Mon, 13 Apr 2020 10:16:12 -0400, "Mr. Luddite"
wrote:

On 4/13/2020 10:12 AM, wrote:
On Sun, 12 Apr 2020 17:28:04 -0400, wrote:

On Sun, 12 Apr 2020 13:10:42 -0400 (EDT), justan wrote:

Wrote in message:
On Fri, 10 Apr 2020 16:31:10 -0400, Keyser Soze wrote:https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Cud7...=youtu.beFauci is just hoping nobody compiles the things he said that turn outto be wrong. He might cost them some grant money.

Fauci is just reacting to the available data. In the beginning
there was just models. You should wish that your mind will be as
sharp and flexable when you reach his age.

I understand the position Fauci is in but the flaw is having him on TV
a couple hours a day shooting from the hip on a situation that is
changing this fast. I suppose he is lucky the press isn't calling him
a liar too.

===

I think that people realize he's doing the best he can with the facts
available. He doesn't come across as playing politics or distorting
reality.



The only one the press calls a "liar" is Trump, even if he is giving
information that he belives to be true at the time.

===

Trump's big problem with the press, and many others, is that he comes
across as being ignorant and beligerant. It's probably too late in
his career to adopt a more thoughtful approach but he should really
try once in a while - more listening, less talking and posturing.

--
This email has been checked for viruses by AVG.
https://www.avg.com

On 4/13/20 11:22 AM, wrote:
On Mon, 13 Apr 2020 10:16:12 -0400, "Mr. Luddite"
wrote:

On 4/13/2020 10:12 AM, wrote:
On Sun, 12 Apr 2020 17:28:04 -0400, wrote:

On Sun, 12 Apr 2020 13:10:42 -0400 (EDT), justan wrote:

Wrote in message:
On Fri, 10 Apr 2020 16:31:10 -0400, Keyser Soze wrote:https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Cud7...=youtu.beFauci is just hoping nobody compiles the things he said that turn outto be wrong. He might cost them some grant money.

Fauci is just reacting to the available data. In the beginning
there was just models. You should wish that your mind will be as
sharp and flexable when you reach his age.

I understand the position Fauci is in but the flaw is having him on TV
a couple hours a day shooting from the hip on a situation that is
changing this fast. I suppose he is lucky the press isn't calling him
a liar too.

===

I think that people realize he's doing the best he can with the facts
available. He doesn't come across as playing politics or distorting
reality.



The only one the press calls a "liar" is Trump, even if he is giving
information that he belives to be true at the time.

===

Trump's big problem with the press, and many others, is that he comes
across as being ignorant and beligerant. It's probably too late in
his career to adopt a more thoughtful approach but he should really
try once in a while - more listening, less talking and posturing.



Ignorance, arrogance, bull****ting, belligerence, finger-pointing,
appointing of ass-kissers

--
For the survival of this country, it is vitally important for all of us
to successfully associate the substantial harm wreaked by COVID-19 with
Trump and thereby defeat him in the fall election.

On Monday, April 13, 2020 at 9:37:39 AM UTC-4, Mr. Luddite wrote:
On 4/13/2020 9:10 AM, Its Me wrote:


The social distancing was/is to flatten the curve. To stretch out the infection over a longer period of time, as you have pointed out.

So now Fauci, who said on Jan 26th that the US didn't need to worry about Corona, is backtracking and saying that earlier distancing would have saved lives. This guy seems to be in political cover-his-ass mode.



I don't know if he's trying to cover his ass or not. My impression of
him is that he just analyzes data through the myopic view of a
scientist.

I came across a timeline written by someone else that I think is a
fair historical summary of the early stages of all this. Plenty of
mistakes were made:

-------------------------------------------

Dec. 1: The first known patient

Dec. 30: Dr. Li Wenliang, at Wuhan Central Hospital, warned
colleagues about a cluster of patients being treated for
viral pneumonia

Dec. 31: China alerted the WHO of a spate of illnesses in
Wuhan, China.

Jan. 1: China shut down the Huanan Wholesale Seafood Market
in Wuhan.

Jan. 10: The genetic sequence of the isolated coronavirus
was shared.

Jan. 11: The first death was reported.

Jan 14: (WHO) repeated China’s claim that coronavirus was
not contagious among humans

Jan. 20: The first human-to-human transmission was reported
by a Chinese expert.

Jan 22: Trump said, "we have it totally under control.
It’s one person coming in from China, and we
have it under control. It’s going to be just fine."

Jan 23: Chinese authorities implemented a strict nationwide
travel ban, but allowed International flights.

Jan 24: Bill de Blasio said, “We urge all New Yorkers to
continue to pursue their everyday activities and
routines�

Jan 25: Good Morning America:
"People should be more concerned right now with the
flu in this country."

Jan 26: New York City’s health commissioner, Dr. Oxiris
Barbot said, “We are encouraging New Yorkers to
go about their everyday lives... those “who had
recently traveled from Wuhan were not being urged
to self-quarantine or avoid large public gatherings.�

Jan. 30: The WHO declared a public health emergency of international
concern.

Feb 1: President Trump instilled China travel ban. New York
City had its first suspected case of coronavirus.

Feb 2: NYC health commissioner Bardot “As we gear up to
celebrate the Lunar New Year in NYC, I want to
assure New Yorkers that there is no reason for anyone
to change their holiday plans, avoid the subway, or
certain parts of the city because of coronavirus.�

Feb 4: China’s consul general in New York, Huang Ping,
thanked the Chinese-American community and other
concerned Americans on Tuesday for their aid in
battling the coronavirus outbreak, and criticized
what he described as “an overreaction by the
American government in severely restricting travel
to and from China.�

Feb 5: New York Times "Who says it's not safe to travel
to China? The coronavirus travel ban is unjust
and doesn't work anyway." NYC Health Commissioner
Barbot on Twitter, “Today our city is celebrating
the Lunar New Year parade in Chinatown... I want
to remind everyone to enjoy the parade and not
change any plans due to misinformation spreading
about coronavirus.�

Feb 6: Bardot: “The important thing for New Yorkers to
know is that in the city currently, their risk is
low and our city preparedness is high...We’re
telling New Yorkers, go about your lives, take the
subway, go out, enjoy life. . . If it were likely
that it could be transmitted casually, we would be
seeing a lot more cases.�

Feb 9: Chinatown in New York City held its annual Lunar
New Year parade. Surgical masks were nearly absent
from this parade. Councilman Mark D. Levine on
Twitter, “In powerful show of defiance of coronavirus
scare, huge crowds gathering in NYC’s Chinatown for
ceremony ahead of annual Lunar New Year parade. Chants
of ‘Be Strong Wuhan!’ If you are staying away, you are
missing out.�

Feb 12: The House Judiciary Committee on voted, 22-10, to
terminate President Trump's expanded travel ban and
rein in presidential authority to issue such
travel restrictions.

Feb 13: New York City Council speaker Corey Johnson “It is
important to support the Chinese community in New
York City...There is no need to avoid public spaces.
I urge everyone to dine and shop as usual.�

Bill de Blasio: "This should not stop you from
going about your life. It should not stop you
from going to Chinatown and going out to eat. I am
going to do that today myself.�

Feb 25: Dr. Anthony Fauci “You need to do nothing different
than you’re already doing"

Feb. 26: In a press conference, President Trump said the risk
to Americans remains low.

Feb 28: A German team of doctors in Wuhan, China, “we discovered
that shedding of potentially infectious virus may
occur in persons who have no fever and no signs or
only minor signs of infection.�

Feb 29: The Food and Drug Administration declared that other
labs besides their own could develop their own
coronavirus tests.

March 1: Health officials announced the first confirmed case
in New York.


March 2: Governor Andrew Cuomo: “In this situation, the facts
defeat fear, because the reality is reassuring...
The woman who has now tested positive, she’s at home,
she’s not even in a hospital, so the perspective here
is important. And the facts, once you know the facts,
once you know the reality, it is reassuring, and we
should relax, because that’s what’s dictated by the
reality of the situation. I get the emotion, I
understand; I understand the anxiety. I’m a
native-born New Yorker, we live with anxiety.
But the facts don’t back it up here. . . . What
happened in other countries versus what happened here,
we don’t even think it’s going to be as bad as it was
in other countries.�


Good timeline and info.

I don't necessarily think that Fauci is nakedly political. He's obviously a bright guy and very successful. But he's been the director of the government agency NIAID since 1984... 36 years. I doubt you can do that without having a excellent political compass.

On Mon, 13 Apr 2020 04:56:59 -0400, "Mr. Luddite"
wrote:

On 4/12/2020 8:57 PM, wrote:
On Sun, 12 Apr 2020 17:33:55 -0400, John wrote:

On Sun, 12 Apr 2020 17:20:55 -0400, wrote:

On Sun, 12 Apr 2020 08:34:56 -0400, "Mr. Luddite"
wrote:

On 4/11/2020 9:57 PM, wrote:
On Sat, 11 Apr 2020 15:23:13 -0400, Keyser Soze
wrote:

On 4/11/20 1:32 PM, wrote:
On Sat, 11 Apr 2020 09:29:26 -0400, Keyser Soze
wrote:

On 4/10/20 9:42 PM, wrote:
On Fri, 10 Apr 2020 16:31:10 -0400, Keyser Soze
wrote:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Cud7...ature=youtu.be

Fauci is just hoping nobody compiles the things he said that turn out
to be wrong. He might cost them some grant money.


Oh, so you think Fauci is as intellectually full of **** as you are, eh?

He certainly seem to be very flexible in what he believes is true. The
"facts" seem to change daily and mostly toward the idea that this was
a lot of hysterical hype. The CDC and NIH guidelines are letters in
the sand that disappear at every tide change ... IOW about twice a
day.


Indeed, Fauci is a scientist who absorbs new data and evaluates it.



Science seldom supports an estimate that changes by a factor of 3600%
in 2 weeks. (2.2 million to 60,000) . It also seems pretty unlikely
that science makes the leap from "A home made face mask is useless" to
recommending them for anyone in public.
Those are politically knee jerks, not science.
Nobody wants to tell Nanna she is wasting her time but I bet most
hospitals are throwing those home made face masks in the trash. I know
I would not be happy if my surgeon showed up with a Granny's "do rag"
on his face.


Not quite that bad Greg.

The estimate of 2.3 million deaths was based on doing *nothing*.

The estimates of up to 240K deaths which was reduced first to
84K and then to 60K are based on everyone following the CDC
recommendations precisely.

Since we are all likely to get it eventually, the only thing I see
this doing is "flattening the curve" and not having it all happen at
once, They pretty much say that too. It is unlikely a vaccine will be
here before this thing runs it' initial course. This curve is likely
to look more like a decreasing sine wave as the virus waxes and wanes
through society ... assuming we stay locked down and start venturing
out over time.



Good, you see the purpose - flattening the curve.

It still doesn't change your chances of being infected and at our age,
dying. It just prolongs the suspense.


That's true. I think there has been so much talk about rates going
down, etc. that the concept of "flattening the curve" has been forgotten.

When the curve is flattened, all it does is extend it over a
greater period of time. The original idea was to prevent hospitals
from becoming overwhelmed. In that respect, it has worked.

I've been charting the number of confirmed cases in Plymouth County
with a population of approx. 500K. On March 1st there were no
confirmed cases. This morning there are 2024. The slope continues
to go up at the same rate it has for the past 2 weeks.

I think the "hospital overload" may have been hyped up a bit too. They
brought the hospital ships to NY and LA, they sit largely unoccupied.
The huge field hospitals that were quickly erected seem pretty empty
too. I understand nursing homes and perhaps a few other places with
concentrations of old people can be hot spots but we do seem to be
coping fairly well as soon as you get out of a couple big cities.

There are going to be books written about this and most will be
talking more about irrational panic than the actual illness.
About 3 million people die in the US every year and I doubt the
overall death toll will be that much higher when looked at it
historically. This is not the Spanish Flu. It is more like the Y2K
thing. There was a real problem but it got hyped up far greater than
the actual impact.

On 4/13/20 1:18 PM, wrote:
On Mon, 13 Apr 2020 04:56:59 -0400, "Mr. Luddite"
wrote:

On 4/12/2020 8:57 PM, wrote:
On Sun, 12 Apr 2020 17:33:55 -0400, John wrote:

On Sun, 12 Apr 2020 17:20:55 -0400, wrote:

On Sun, 12 Apr 2020 08:34:56 -0400, "Mr. Luddite"
wrote:

On 4/11/2020 9:57 PM, wrote:
On Sat, 11 Apr 2020 15:23:13 -0400, Keyser Soze
wrote:

On 4/11/20 1:32 PM, wrote:
On Sat, 11 Apr 2020 09:29:26 -0400, Keyser Soze
wrote:

On 4/10/20 9:42 PM, wrote:
On Fri, 10 Apr 2020 16:31:10 -0400, Keyser Soze
wrote:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Cud7...ature=youtu.be

Fauci is just hoping nobody compiles the things he said that turn out
to be wrong. He might cost them some grant money.


Oh, so you think Fauci is as intellectually full of **** as you are, eh?

He certainly seem to be very flexible in what he believes is true. The
"facts" seem to change daily and mostly toward the idea that this was
a lot of hysterical hype. The CDC and NIH guidelines are letters in
the sand that disappear at every tide change ... IOW about twice a
day.


Indeed, Fauci is a scientist who absorbs new data and evaluates it.



Science seldom supports an estimate that changes by a factor of 3600%
in 2 weeks. (2.2 million to 60,000) . It also seems pretty unlikely
that science makes the leap from "A home made face mask is useless" to
recommending them for anyone in public.
Those are politically knee jerks, not science.
Nobody wants to tell Nanna she is wasting her time but I bet most
hospitals are throwing those home made face masks in the trash. I know
I would not be happy if my surgeon showed up with a Granny's "do rag"
on his face.


Not quite that bad Greg.

The estimate of 2.3 million deaths was based on doing *nothing*.

The estimates of up to 240K deaths which was reduced first to
84K and then to 60K are based on everyone following the CDC
recommendations precisely.

Since we are all likely to get it eventually, the only thing I see
this doing is "flattening the curve" and not having it all happen at
once, They pretty much say that too. It is unlikely a vaccine will be
here before this thing runs it' initial course. This curve is likely
to look more like a decreasing sine wave as the virus waxes and wanes
through society ... assuming we stay locked down and start venturing
out over time.



Good, you see the purpose - flattening the curve.

It still doesn't change your chances of being infected and at our age,
dying. It just prolongs the suspense.


That's true. I think there has been so much talk about rates going
down, etc. that the concept of "flattening the curve" has been forgotten.

When the curve is flattened, all it does is extend it over a
greater period of time. The original idea was to prevent hospitals
from becoming overwhelmed. In that respect, it has worked.

I've been charting the number of confirmed cases in Plymouth County
with a population of approx. 500K. On March 1st there were no
confirmed cases. This morning there are 2024. The slope continues
to go up at the same rate it has for the past 2 weeks.

I think the "hospital overload" may have been hyped up a bit too. They
brought the hospital ships to NY and LA, they sit largely unoccupied.
The huge field hospitals that were quickly erected seem pretty empty
too. I understand nursing homes and perhaps a few other places with
concentrations of old people can be hot spots but we do seem to be
coping fairly well as soon as you get out of a couple big cities.

There are going to be books written about this and most will be
talking more about irrational panic than the actual illness.
About 3 million people die in the US every year and I doubt the
overall death toll will be that much higher when looked at it
historically. This is not the Spanish Flu. It is more like the Y2K
thing. There was a real problem but it got hyped up far greater than
the actual impact.


Since it is no big deal, I think it would be a hell of a gesture for
your and Mrs. Fretwell to prepare some goody bags and deliver them in
person to nursing homes.

--
For the survival of this country, it is vitally important for all of us
to successfully associate the substantial harm wreaked by COVID-19 with
Trump and thereby defeat him in the fall election.