Wrote in message:
On Fri, 10 Apr 2020 16:31:10 -0400, Keyser Soze wrote:https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Cud7...=youtu.beFauci is just hoping nobody compiles the things he said that turn outto be wrong. He might cost them some grant money.

Fauci is just reacting to the available data. In the beginning
there was just models. You should wish that your mind will be as
sharp and flexable when you reach his age.
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justan wrote:
Wrote in message:
On Fri, 10 Apr 2020 16:31:10 -0400, Keyser Soze
wrote:https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Cud7...=youtu.beFauci
is just hoping nobody compiles the things he said that turn outto be
wrong. He might cost them some grant money.

Fauci is just reacting to the available data. In the beginning
there was just models. You should wish that your mind will be as
sharp and flexable when you reach his age.

What no one is saying, is no matter what the curve, the area below the
curve is the same.

On Sun, 12 Apr 2020 18:36:34 -0000 (UTC), Bill
wrote:

justan wrote:
Wrote in message:
On Fri, 10 Apr 2020 16:31:10 -0400, Keyser Soze
wrote:https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Cud7...=youtu.beFauci
is just hoping nobody compiles the things he said that turn outto be
wrong. He might cost them some grant money.

Fauci is just reacting to the available data. In the beginning
there was just models. You should wish that your mind will be as
sharp and flexable when you reach his age.

What no one is saying, is no matter what the curve, the area below the
curve is the same.

===

That's not necessarily true. If an effective treatment or vaccine
comes along, the tail of the distribution curve will be trimmed at
some point.

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This email has been checked for viruses by AVG.
https://www.avg.com

On Sun, 12 Apr 2020 07:14:11 -0400, John wrote:

On Sat, 11 Apr 2020 21:57:54 -0400, wrote:

On Sat, 11 Apr 2020 15:23:13 -0400, Keyser Soze
wrote:

On 4/11/20 1:32 PM, wrote:
On Sat, 11 Apr 2020 09:29:26 -0400, Keyser Soze
wrote:

On 4/10/20 9:42 PM, wrote:
On Fri, 10 Apr 2020 16:31:10 -0400, Keyser Soze
wrote:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Cud7...ature=youtu.be

Fauci is just hoping nobody compiles the things he said that turn out
to be wrong. He might cost them some grant money.


Oh, so you think Fauci is as intellectually full of **** as you are, eh?

He certainly seem to be very flexible in what he believes is true. The
"facts" seem to change daily and mostly toward the idea that this was
a lot of hysterical hype. The CDC and NIH guidelines are letters in
the sand that disappear at every tide change ... IOW about twice a
day.


Indeed, Fauci is a scientist who absorbs new data and evaluates it.

Science seldom supports an estimate that changes by a factor of 3600%
in 2 weeks. (2.2 million to 60,000) . It also seems pretty unlikely
that science makes the leap from "A home made face mask is useless" to
recommending them for anyone in public.
Those are politically knee jerks, not science.
Nobody wants to tell Nanna she is wasting her time but I bet most
hospitals are throwing those home made face masks in the trash. I know
I would not be happy if my surgeon showed up with a Granny's "do rag"
on his face.

You are sounding much like CNN. There was a very high, non-mitigation estimate,
and a much lower estimate with mitigation. As Spain and Italy were used as
inputs, the output was high. Adjustments have been made based upon actual US
data and we see the result.

Of course, you knew that.

I knew that the demographic and geography made them bad models if that
is what you mean.


I've seen no recommendations for surgeons to wear home made facemasks. The
purpose of the facemask for the public is to contain the virus if one is a
carrier. A cloth mask, although not perfect, is much better than no mask. Common
sense says that.

The thing that is flawed is it makes the mask wearer much more likely
to be infected unless they follow a far stricter protocol than simply
stuffing the rag in their pocket between wearings. It becomes a very
effective vector for the virus.
Fauci and the experts used to say that

On Sun, 12 Apr 2020 08:34:56 -0400, "Mr. Luddite"
wrote:

On 4/11/2020 9:57 PM, wrote:
On Sat, 11 Apr 2020 15:23:13 -0400, Keyser Soze
wrote:

On 4/11/20 1:32 PM, wrote:
On Sat, 11 Apr 2020 09:29:26 -0400, Keyser Soze
wrote:

On 4/10/20 9:42 PM, wrote:
On Fri, 10 Apr 2020 16:31:10 -0400, Keyser Soze
wrote:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Cud7...ature=youtu.be

Fauci is just hoping nobody compiles the things he said that turn out
to be wrong. He might cost them some grant money.


Oh, so you think Fauci is as intellectually full of **** as you are, eh?

He certainly seem to be very flexible in what he believes is true. The
"facts" seem to change daily and mostly toward the idea that this was
a lot of hysterical hype. The CDC and NIH guidelines are letters in
the sand that disappear at every tide change ... IOW about twice a
day.


Indeed, Fauci is a scientist who absorbs new data and evaluates it.



Science seldom supports an estimate that changes by a factor of 3600%
in 2 weeks. (2.2 million to 60,000) . It also seems pretty unlikely
that science makes the leap from "A home made face mask is useless" to
recommending them for anyone in public.
Those are politically knee jerks, not science.
Nobody wants to tell Nanna she is wasting her time but I bet most
hospitals are throwing those home made face masks in the trash. I know
I would not be happy if my surgeon showed up with a Granny's "do rag"
on his face.


Not quite that bad Greg.

The estimate of 2.3 million deaths was based on doing *nothing*.

The estimates of up to 240K deaths which was reduced first to
84K and then to 60K are based on everyone following the CDC
recommendations precisely.

Since we are all likely to get it eventually, the only thing I see
this doing is "flattening the curve" and not having it all happen at
once, They pretty much say that too. It is unlikely a vaccine will be
here before this thing runs it' initial course. This curve is likely
to look more like a decreasing sine wave as the virus waxes and wanes
through society ... assuming we stay locked down and start venturing
out over time.

On Sun, 12 Apr 2020 10:11:02 -0400, Keyser Soze
wrote:

On 4/12/20 8:34 AM, Mr. Luddite wrote:
On 4/11/2020 9:57 PM, wrote:
On Sat, 11 Apr 2020 15:23:13 -0400, Keyser Soze
wrote:

On 4/11/20 1:32 PM, wrote:
On Sat, 11 Apr 2020 09:29:26 -0400, Keyser Soze
wrote:

On 4/10/20 9:42 PM, wrote:
On Fri, 10 Apr 2020 16:31:10 -0400, Keyser Soze
wrote:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Cud7...ature=youtu.be

Fauci is just hoping nobody compiles the things he said that turn out
to be wrong. He might cost them some grant money.


Oh, so you think Fauci is as intellectually full of **** as you
are, eh?

He certainly seem to be very flexible in what he believes is true. The
"facts" seem to change daily and mostly toward the idea that this was
a lot of hysterical hype. The CDC and NIH guidelines are letters in
the sand that disappear at every tide change ... IOW about twice a
day.


Indeed, Fauci is a scientist who absorbs new data and evaluates it.



Science seldom supports an estimate that changes by a factor of 3600%
in 2 weeks. (2.2 million to 60,000) . It also seems pretty unlikely
that science makes the leap from "A home made face mask is useless" to
recommending them for anyone in public.
Those are politically knee jerks, not science.
Nobody wants to tell Nanna she is wasting her time but I bet most
hospitals are throwing those home made face masks in the trash. I know
I would not be happy if my surgeon showed up with a Granny's "do rag"
on his face.


Not quite that bad Greg.

The estimate of 2.3 million deaths was based on doing *nothing*.

The estimates of up to 240K deaths which was reduced first to
84K and then to 60K are based on everyone following the CDC
recommendations precisely.



Apparently science doesn't mesh with Greg's loonytarian preference of
doing nothing.

There is not much "science" in these "do rag" masks.
They are certainly more than useless without any kind of sterile
protocol in place. Stuffing a dirty rag in your pocket that has been
collecting whatever was in the air and then reusing it contaminates
your hands, your pocket and anything else you put in your pocket.

They did an interesting demonstration here using U/V powder and the
mask wearing little blonde news girl glowed like a christmas tree
after an hour of typical activity, including under her mask.

On Sun, 12 Apr 2020 13:10:42 -0400 (EDT), justan wrote:

Wrote in message:
On Fri, 10 Apr 2020 16:31:10 -0400, Keyser Soze wrote:https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Cud7...=youtu.beFauci is just hoping nobody compiles the things he said that turn outto be wrong. He might cost them some grant money.

Fauci is just reacting to the available data. In the beginning
there was just models. You should wish that your mind will be as
sharp and flexable when you reach his age.

I understand the position Fauci is in but the flaw is having him on TV
a couple hours a day shooting from the hip on a situation that is
changing this fast. I suppose he is lucky the press isn't calling him
a liar too.

On Sun, 12 Apr 2020 18:36:34 -0000 (UTC), Bill
wrote:

justan wrote:
Wrote in message:
On Fri, 10 Apr 2020 16:31:10 -0400, Keyser Soze
wrote:https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Cud7...=youtu.beFauci
is just hoping nobody compiles the things he said that turn outto be
wrong. He might cost them some grant money.

Fauci is just reacting to the available data. In the beginning
there was just models. You should wish that your mind will be as
sharp and flexable when you reach his age.

What no one is saying, is no matter what the curve, the area below the
curve is the same.

True, If you are 80 with COPD, this is as likely to kill you in July
as it is now.

On Sun, 12 Apr 2020 17:06:45 -0400, wrote:

On Sun, 12 Apr 2020 07:14:11 -0400, John wrote:

On Sat, 11 Apr 2020 21:57:54 -0400, wrote:

On Sat, 11 Apr 2020 15:23:13 -0400, Keyser Soze
wrote:

On 4/11/20 1:32 PM, wrote:
On Sat, 11 Apr 2020 09:29:26 -0400, Keyser Soze
wrote:

On 4/10/20 9:42 PM, wrote:
On Fri, 10 Apr 2020 16:31:10 -0400, Keyser Soze
wrote:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Cud7...ature=youtu.be

Fauci is just hoping nobody compiles the things he said that turn out
to be wrong. He might cost them some grant money.


Oh, so you think Fauci is as intellectually full of **** as you are, eh?

He certainly seem to be very flexible in what he believes is true. The
"facts" seem to change daily and mostly toward the idea that this was
a lot of hysterical hype. The CDC and NIH guidelines are letters in
the sand that disappear at every tide change ... IOW about twice a
day.


Indeed, Fauci is a scientist who absorbs new data and evaluates it.

Science seldom supports an estimate that changes by a factor of 3600%
in 2 weeks. (2.2 million to 60,000) . It also seems pretty unlikely
that science makes the leap from "A home made face mask is useless" to
recommending them for anyone in public.
Those are politically knee jerks, not science.
Nobody wants to tell Nanna she is wasting her time but I bet most
hospitals are throwing those home made face masks in the trash. I know
I would not be happy if my surgeon showed up with a Granny's "do rag"
on his face.

You are sounding much like CNN. There was a very high, non-mitigation estimate,
and a much lower estimate with mitigation. As Spain and Italy were used as
inputs, the output was high. Adjustments have been made based upon actual US
data and we see the result.

Of course, you knew that.

I knew that the demographic and geography made them bad models if that
is what you mean.

As it turns out, you were correct. But so were they when they modified the
model. You start with what you have.


I've seen no recommendations for surgeons to wear home made facemasks. The
purpose of the facemask for the public is to contain the virus if one is a
carrier. A cloth mask, although not perfect, is much better than no mask. Common
sense says that.

The thing that is flawed is it makes the mask wearer much more likely
to be infected unless they follow a far stricter protocol than simply
stuffing the rag in their pocket between wearings. It becomes a very
effective vector for the virus.
Fauci and the experts used to say that

In this case, the purpose of the public wearing the mask is so carriers will not
spread the virus as much. The wearer of the mask is not the one being protected,
although there may be some little protection.
--

Freedom Isn't Free!

On Sun, 12 Apr 2020 17:20:55 -0400, wrote:

On Sun, 12 Apr 2020 08:34:56 -0400, "Mr. Luddite"
wrote:

On 4/11/2020 9:57 PM, wrote:
On Sat, 11 Apr 2020 15:23:13 -0400, Keyser Soze
wrote:

On 4/11/20 1:32 PM, wrote:
On Sat, 11 Apr 2020 09:29:26 -0400, Keyser Soze
wrote:

On 4/10/20 9:42 PM, wrote:
On Fri, 10 Apr 2020 16:31:10 -0400, Keyser Soze
wrote:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Cud7...ature=youtu.be

Fauci is just hoping nobody compiles the things he said that turn out
to be wrong. He might cost them some grant money.


Oh, so you think Fauci is as intellectually full of **** as you are, eh?

He certainly seem to be very flexible in what he believes is true. The
"facts" seem to change daily and mostly toward the idea that this was
a lot of hysterical hype. The CDC and NIH guidelines are letters in
the sand that disappear at every tide change ... IOW about twice a
day.


Indeed, Fauci is a scientist who absorbs new data and evaluates it.



Science seldom supports an estimate that changes by a factor of 3600%
in 2 weeks. (2.2 million to 60,000) . It also seems pretty unlikely
that science makes the leap from "A home made face mask is useless" to
recommending them for anyone in public.
Those are politically knee jerks, not science.
Nobody wants to tell Nanna she is wasting her time but I bet most
hospitals are throwing those home made face masks in the trash. I know
I would not be happy if my surgeon showed up with a Granny's "do rag"
on his face.


Not quite that bad Greg.

The estimate of 2.3 million deaths was based on doing *nothing*.

The estimates of up to 240K deaths which was reduced first to
84K and then to 60K are based on everyone following the CDC
recommendations precisely.

Since we are all likely to get it eventually, the only thing I see
this doing is "flattening the curve" and not having it all happen at
once, They pretty much say that too. It is unlikely a vaccine will be
here before this thing runs it' initial course. This curve is likely
to look more like a decreasing sine wave as the virus waxes and wanes
through society ... assuming we stay locked down and start venturing
out over time.

Good, you see the purpose - flattening the curve.
--

Freedom Isn't Free!