On Wed, 25 Mar 2020 23:42:00 -0400, wrote:

On Wed, 25 Mar 2020 18:29:20 -0400, John wrote:

On Wed, 25 Mar 2020 18:21:38 -0400, wrote:

On Wed, 25 Mar 2020 09:53:40 -0400,
wrote:

On Wed, 25 Mar 2020 08:23:10 -0400, "Mr. Luddite"
wrote:

On 3/25/2020 8:08 AM, Keyser Soze wrote:
On 3/25/20 3:18 AM, Mr. Luddite wrote:
On 3/24/2020 9:20 PM, Keyser Soze wrote:
On 3/24/20 8:51 PM, Mr. Luddite wrote:


With all the focus on convid-19 and some of the dire warnings,
little is said much about the regular, seasonal Flu.

I looked up some info:

The regular, seasonal Flu has peaked in terms of how many have
caught it and is beginning to decline.

But the stats are surprising.

According to CDC estimates (USA):

*From October 1, 2019, through March 14, 2020, there have been:

38,000,000 – 54,000,000 flu illnesses

17,000,000 – 25,000,000 flu medical visits

390,000 – 710,000 flu hospitalizations

23,000 – 59,000 flu deaths

Another website with Flu statistics that also referenced
data from the CDC had slightly lower numbers but still
within the ranges shown above.

Makes me wonder what the deal is with the corvid-19 virus
(which is an entirely different virus).

Total deaths in the USA as of this post totals 696 with
confirmed cases of 53,276.

At first blush, it would seem like corvid-19 is being
way overblown in terms of it's threat ... OR ...
there's more to this than we are being told.





I don't believe we have even begun to get a handle on the number of
COVOID-19 cases that are extant in this country, nor has the "season"
for it come close to peaking.

Another factor: the percentage of deaths attributed to the flu versus
the percentage theoretically attributable to COVID-19.

Let's say there are 45 million flu cases a year here, a number
between 38 and 54 million, and 35,000 deaths, again an arbitrary
number. A 1% death rate would add up to 450,000 deaths.

The estimates for the total number of possible COVOID-19 cases in
this country is* higher than the numbers of flu cases, and the death
rate is estimated to be much higher than the 1% rate for flu deaths.
Also, apparently it is far more contagious than flu.

I've had the various sorts of flu at least a half dozen times over
the years. A couple of times it knocked me on my ass, but I survived.

There are an awful lot of unknowns about COVOID-19.

But, hell, we'll be through it by Easter, your Trump sort of says.


It seems that what is driving the concern is the percentages of deaths
(flu versus covid-19).* Percentages* produce
a different perspective than raw numbers.* Flu looks like about a
0.15 percent death rate where covid-19 looks like 1.5%.** Yet the raw
numbers (about 35,000 versus 700) produces a totally different
perspective.

I am starting to believe we are in for a very long, long ride.
There are some reports of China's infection rate is beginning
to climb again in the area of the initial "ground zero"
which may suggest a second wave of the virus has begun.



I agree and our almost complete unpreparedness for something like this,
plus a POTUS who pooh-poohed it for many weeks, plus all the back and
forth bull**** he is spewing now ain't helping. His daily briefings are
a horror show. He needs to get off that podium, let the experts update
us when they have hard information, and not every day.


If possible (but I know it's asking the impossible) I'd like to focus
this thread on the issues of seasonal flu versus C-19 and not politics.
Nobody was prepared for this.

One possibility is that as a society we have "accepted" the casualties
of the yearly seasonal flu, much like we have pretty much accepted
the casualties as a result of car accidents, suicides and other
deaths. It's just factored into our lives.

Why c-19 is different and the attention it is getting with shutdowns
of businesses, etc. is the question. Probably the level of
contagiousness and the rapid spread throughout the world are factors.

Sources are saying that the rate of infection in places like Italy
are beginning to level off and may even be declining. The graph
on John's link (below) seems to be showing a slowing of world
infections.

If that happens in other countries, the death numbers may still be
lower world-wide than the flu deaths in the USA in one season.

Link:

http://ncov.bii.virginia.edu/dashboard/?fbclid=IwAR0p3SzdCXvoeCqWLpW9e3NJsSPahWEThqxOlw99 hX8cshDW6GbdBdCH-jk

===

I look at those graphs several times a day. There seems to be a daily
anomaly between the morning and evening data, possibly caused by a
reporting lag. In the morning you can convince yourself that there
has been an inflection point and things are starting to level off.
Late in the day that effect seems to disappear.

This is the ragged edge of a wave that is going over us. I doubt the
numbers mean that much day by day. You just need to watch the curve.

Again, here is the f'ing update schedule:

What’s your data level and how often do you update your data?
For USA, we provide data at the county level, and we update it multiple times
during the day;
For China, India, Canada, Germany, Greece, Chile, Brazil, Argentina, Colombia
and Peru, we provide data at the State/Province level and it is updated at least
twice a day;
For Other regions/countries, we provide data at the country level and update it
at least twice a day.

https://nssac.github.io/covid-19/dashboard/

This is like staring at a stock ticker. It will just make you nuts.

Then don't stare at it! Besides, that's not the link that shows the changes.
Here it is:

https://nssac.bii.virginia.edu/covid-19/dashboard/

Move the 'Time Slider' from left to right to see how the case load is growing in
the US, or the world if you zoom out like you can on Google Maps.
--

Freedom Isn't Free!