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  #11   Report Post  
Old March 25th 20, 12:40 PM posted to rec.boats
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First recorded activity by BoatBanter: Dec 2008
Posts: 539
Default Seasonal Flu

On Tue, 24 Mar 2020 20:51:29 -0400, "Mr. Luddite" wrote:



With all the focus on convid-19 and some of the dire warnings,
little is said much about the regular, seasonal Flu.

I looked up some info:

The regular, seasonal Flu has peaked in terms of how many have
caught it and is beginning to decline.

But the stats are surprising.

According to CDC estimates (USA):

From October 1, 2019, through March 14, 2020, there have been:

38,000,000 54,000,000 flu illnesses

17,000,000 25,000,000 flu medical visits

390,000 710,000 flu hospitalizations

23,000 59,000 flu deaths

Another website with Flu statistics that also referenced
data from the CDC had slightly lower numbers but still
within the ranges shown above.

Makes me wonder what the deal is with the corvid-19 virus
(which is an entirely different virus).

Total deaths in the USA as of this post totals 696 with
confirmed cases of 53,276.

At first blush, it would seem like corvid-19 is being
way overblown in terms of it's threat ... OR ...
there's more to this than we are being told.


I think I mentioned that a few weeks ago, but it wasn't interesting until Trump
mentioned it in his briefing the other day. It would be hard for the liberals to
start using flu statistics against Trump.
--

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  #12   Report Post  
Old March 25th 20, 12:42 PM posted to rec.boats
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First recorded activity by BoatBanter: Dec 2008
Posts: 539
Default Seasonal Flu

On Tue, 24 Mar 2020 21:30:41 -0400, "Mr. Luddite" wrote:

On 3/24/2020 9:20 PM, Keyser Soze wrote:
On 3/24/20 8:51 PM, Mr. Luddite wrote:


With all the focus on convid-19 and some of the dire warnings,
little is said much about the regular, seasonal Flu.

I looked up some info:

The regular, seasonal Flu has peaked in terms of how many have
caught it and is beginning to decline.

But the stats are surprising.

According to CDC estimates (USA):

*From October 1, 2019, through March 14, 2020, there have been:

38,000,000 54,000,000 flu illnesses

17,000,000 25,000,000 flu medical visits

390,000 710,000 flu hospitalizations

23,000 59,000 flu deaths

Another website with Flu statistics that also referenced
data from the CDC had slightly lower numbers but still
within the ranges shown above.

Makes me wonder what the deal is with the corvid-19 virus
(which is an entirely different virus).

Total deaths in the USA as of this post totals 696 with
confirmed cases of 53,276.

At first blush, it would seem like corvid-19 is being
way overblown in terms of it's threat ... OR ...
there's more to this than we are being told.





I don't believe we have even begun to get a handle on the number of
COVOID-19 cases that are extant in this country, nor has the "season"
for it come close to peaking.

Another factor: the percentage of deaths attributed to the flu versus
the percentage theoretically attributable to COVID-19.

Let's say there are 45 million flu cases a year here, a number between
38 and 54 million, and 35,000 deaths, again an arbitrary number. A 1%
death rate would add up to 450,000 deaths.

The estimates for the total number of possible COVOID-19 cases in this
country is* higher than the numbers of flu cases, and the death rate is
estimated to be much higher than the 1% rate for flu deaths. Also,
apparently it is far more contagious than flu.

I've had the various sorts of flu at least a half dozen times over the
years. A couple of times it knocked me on my ass, but I survived.

There are an awful lot of unknowns about COVOID-19.

But, hell, we'll be through it by Easter, your Trump sort of says.



I am tired, so maybe I am screwed up but the flu numbers mean that those
who got the flu (as of March 14th) is roughly 1,000 times the number of
people who have confirmed corvid-19 (latest number). Deaths due to flu
are roughly 30-40 times those of corvid-19 so far.

I don't know who to believe anymore. Saw Mayor Bill De Blasio earlier
delivering a very dire message of what he sees in our future. Then,
as you say, Trump thinks everything will be hunky-dory in about 3-4
weeks.

I think the bottom line is nobody knows.


I don't think Trump has said everything will be hunky-dory at all. He would like
to get some folks back into the workplace by Easter. Not all the folks, and
maybe not a large percent of the folks, but the folks who live and work in areas
where the virus is not inflicting great damage.
--

Freedom Isn't Free!
  #13   Report Post  
Old March 25th 20, 12:58 PM posted to rec.boats
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First recorded activity by BoatBanter: Aug 2017
Posts: 4,666
Default Seasonal Flu

On 3/25/2020 8:42 AM, John wrote:
On Tue, 24 Mar 2020 21:30:41 -0400, "Mr. Luddite" wrote:

On 3/24/2020 9:20 PM, Keyser Soze wrote:
On 3/24/20 8:51 PM, Mr. Luddite wrote:


With all the focus on convid-19 and some of the dire warnings,
little is said much about the regular, seasonal Flu.

I looked up some info:

The regular, seasonal Flu has peaked in terms of how many have
caught it and is beginning to decline.

But the stats are surprising.

According to CDC estimates (USA):

*From October 1, 2019, through March 14, 2020, there have been:

38,000,000 – 54,000,000 flu illnesses

17,000,000 – 25,000,000 flu medical visits

390,000 – 710,000 flu hospitalizations

23,000 – 59,000 flu deaths

Another website with Flu statistics that also referenced
data from the CDC had slightly lower numbers but still
within the ranges shown above.

Makes me wonder what the deal is with the corvid-19 virus
(which is an entirely different virus).

Total deaths in the USA as of this post totals 696 with
confirmed cases of 53,276.

At first blush, it would seem like corvid-19 is being
way overblown in terms of it's threat ... OR ...
there's more to this than we are being told.





I don't believe we have even begun to get a handle on the number of
COVOID-19 cases that are extant in this country, nor has the "season"
for it come close to peaking.

Another factor: the percentage of deaths attributed to the flu versus
the percentage theoretically attributable to COVID-19.

Let's say there are 45 million flu cases a year here, a number between
38 and 54 million, and 35,000 deaths, again an arbitrary number. A 1%
death rate would add up to 450,000 deaths.

The estimates for the total number of possible COVOID-19 cases in this
country is* higher than the numbers of flu cases, and the death rate is
estimated to be much higher than the 1% rate for flu deaths. Also,
apparently it is far more contagious than flu.

I've had the various sorts of flu at least a half dozen times over the
years. A couple of times it knocked me on my ass, but I survived.

There are an awful lot of unknowns about COVOID-19.

But, hell, we'll be through it by Easter, your Trump sort of says.



I am tired, so maybe I am screwed up but the flu numbers mean that those
who got the flu (as of March 14th) is roughly 1,000 times the number of
people who have confirmed corvid-19 (latest number). Deaths due to flu
are roughly 30-40 times those of corvid-19 so far.

I don't know who to believe anymore. Saw Mayor Bill De Blasio earlier
delivering a very dire message of what he sees in our future. Then,
as you say, Trump thinks everything will be hunky-dory in about 3-4
weeks.

I think the bottom line is nobody knows.


I don't think Trump has said everything will be hunky-dory at all. He would like
to get some folks back into the workplace by Easter. Not all the folks, and
maybe not a large percent of the folks, but the folks who live and work in areas
where the virus is not inflicting great damage.



Trump is pulling back somewhat on his original statements to "open the
USA for business". He's now refining it to reflect a limited, slow
"opening" depending on the data available in another 2 or 3 weeks.

I just wish he'd be a little more professional in how he announces
his thoughts, rather than brag about how smart he is. His description
of "the test" being "very unpleasant" with the swab being "stuck way up
into your nose and then a left turn at the eyeball" may be a goofy
attempt at humor but it sure doesn't inspire people to be tested
or to calm the public's concerns.

I understand his concerns. The medical/scientific community being
academics who routinely deal with crunching numbers, creating models,
etc., are not as influenced by the economic ramifications.
Trump and state governors recognize the need for revenues to keep
the country and states operating.

It's a tough balance.

--
This email has been checked for viruses by AVG.
https://www.avg.com

  #14   Report Post  
Old March 25th 20, 01:05 PM posted to rec.boats
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First recorded activity by BoatBanter: Dec 2008
Posts: 539
Default Seasonal Flu

On Wed, 25 Mar 2020 08:58:41 -0400, "Mr. Luddite" wrote:

On 3/25/2020 8:42 AM, John wrote:
On Tue, 24 Mar 2020 21:30:41 -0400, "Mr. Luddite" wrote:

On 3/24/2020 9:20 PM, Keyser Soze wrote:
On 3/24/20 8:51 PM, Mr. Luddite wrote:


With all the focus on convid-19 and some of the dire warnings,
little is said much about the regular, seasonal Flu.

I looked up some info:

The regular, seasonal Flu has peaked in terms of how many have
caught it and is beginning to decline.

But the stats are surprising.

According to CDC estimates (USA):

*From October 1, 2019, through March 14, 2020, there have been:

38,000,000 54,000,000 flu illnesses

17,000,000 25,000,000 flu medical visits

390,000 710,000 flu hospitalizations

23,000 59,000 flu deaths

Another website with Flu statistics that also referenced
data from the CDC had slightly lower numbers but still
within the ranges shown above.

Makes me wonder what the deal is with the corvid-19 virus
(which is an entirely different virus).

Total deaths in the USA as of this post totals 696 with
confirmed cases of 53,276.

At first blush, it would seem like corvid-19 is being
way overblown in terms of it's threat ... OR ...
there's more to this than we are being told.





I don't believe we have even begun to get a handle on the number of
COVOID-19 cases that are extant in this country, nor has the "season"
for it come close to peaking.

Another factor: the percentage of deaths attributed to the flu versus
the percentage theoretically attributable to COVID-19.

Let's say there are 45 million flu cases a year here, a number between
38 and 54 million, and 35,000 deaths, again an arbitrary number. A 1%
death rate would add up to 450,000 deaths.

The estimates for the total number of possible COVOID-19 cases in this
country is* higher than the numbers of flu cases, and the death rate is
estimated to be much higher than the 1% rate for flu deaths. Also,
apparently it is far more contagious than flu.

I've had the various sorts of flu at least a half dozen times over the
years. A couple of times it knocked me on my ass, but I survived.

There are an awful lot of unknowns about COVOID-19.

But, hell, we'll be through it by Easter, your Trump sort of says.


I am tired, so maybe I am screwed up but the flu numbers mean that those
who got the flu (as of March 14th) is roughly 1,000 times the number of
people who have confirmed corvid-19 (latest number). Deaths due to flu
are roughly 30-40 times those of corvid-19 so far.

I don't know who to believe anymore. Saw Mayor Bill De Blasio earlier
delivering a very dire message of what he sees in our future. Then,
as you say, Trump thinks everything will be hunky-dory in about 3-4
weeks.

I think the bottom line is nobody knows.


I don't think Trump has said everything will be hunky-dory at all. He would like
to get some folks back into the workplace by Easter. Not all the folks, and
maybe not a large percent of the folks, but the folks who live and work in areas
where the virus is not inflicting great damage.



Trump is pulling back somewhat on his original statements to "open the
USA for business". He's now refining it to reflect a limited, slow
"opening" depending on the data available in another 2 or 3 weeks.

I just wish he'd be a little more professional in how he announces
his thoughts, rather than brag about how smart he is. His description
of "the test" being "very unpleasant" with the swab being "stuck way up
into your nose and then a left turn at the eyeball" may be a goofy
attempt at humor but it sure doesn't inspire people to be tested
or to calm the public's concerns.


Agree with that 100%. His 'pre-briefing' routine is getting old.

I understand his concerns. The medical/scientific community being
academics who routinely deal with crunching numbers, creating models,
etc., are not as influenced by the economic ramifications.
Trump and state governors recognize the need for revenues to keep
the country and states operating.

It's a tough balance.


Another consideration on the Covid-19 statistics is that the mortality rate is
based on the number of deaths of confirmed cases of Covid-19. It does not
include those cases which are unconfirmed or not even reported. Increasing the
denominator with those would change the mortality rate significantly. The other
day you mentioned a number of 300,000 unreported cases, I believe. Add those to
the current denominator, and the rate changes significantly.
--

Freedom Isn't Free!
  #15   Report Post  
Old March 25th 20, 01:08 PM posted to rec.boats
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First recorded activity by BoatBanter: Feb 2018
Posts: 90
Default Seasonal Flu

On 3/24/2020 9:36 PM, Keyser Soze wrote:
On 3/24/20 9:30 PM, Mr. Luddite wrote:
On 3/24/2020 9:20 PM, Keyser Soze wrote:
On 3/24/20 8:51 PM, Mr. Luddite wrote:


With all the focus on convid-19 and some of the dire warnings,
little is said much about the regular, seasonal Flu.

I looked up some info:

The regular, seasonal Flu has peaked in terms of how many have
caught it and is beginning to decline.

But the stats are surprising.

According to CDC estimates (USA):

*From October 1, 2019, through March 14, 2020, there have been:

38,000,000 – 54,000,000 flu illnesses

17,000,000 – 25,000,000 flu medical visits

390,000 – 710,000 flu hospitalizations

23,000 – 59,000 flu deaths

Another website with Flu statistics that also referenced
data from the CDC had slightly lower numbers but still
within the ranges shown above.

Makes me wonder what the deal is with the corvid-19 virus
(which is an entirely different virus).

Total deaths in the USA as of this post totals 696 with
confirmed cases of 53,276.

At first blush, it would seem like corvid-19 is being
way overblown in terms of it's threat ... OR ...
there's more to this than we are being told.





I don't believe we have even begun to get a handle on the number of
COVOID-19 cases that are extant in this country, nor has the "season"
for it come close to peaking.

Another factor: the percentage of deaths attributed to the flu versus
the percentage theoretically attributable to COVID-19.

Let's say there are 45 million flu cases a year here, a number
between 38 and 54 million, and 35,000 deaths, again an arbitrary
number. A 1% death rate would add up to 450,000 deaths.

The estimates for the total number of possible COVOID-19 cases in
this country is* higher than the numbers of flu cases, and the death
rate is estimated to be much higher than the 1% rate for flu deaths.
Also, apparently it is far more contagious than flu.

I've had the various sorts of flu at least a half dozen times over
the years. A couple of times it knocked me on my ass, but I survived.

There are an awful lot of unknowns about COVOID-19.

But, hell, we'll be through it by Easter, your Trump sort of says.



I am tired, so maybe I am screwed up but the flu numbers mean that those
who got the flu (as of March 14th) is roughly 1,000 times the number of
people who have confirmed corvid-19 (latest number).* Deaths due to flu
are roughly 30-40 times those of corvid-19 so far.

I don't know who to believe anymore.* Saw Mayor Bill De Blasio earlier
delivering a very dire message of what he sees in our future.* Then,
as you say, Trump thinks everything will be hunky-dory in about 3-4
weeks.

I think the bottom line is nobody knows.


Agreed. But, I tend to believe the real doctors and scientists and those
politicians who are in a position of power, have some knowledge, and
take it very seriously. A few governors fall into that category, but not
Trump, not if he is talking about some sort of miracle to accompany Easter.

Your comment about "corvid-19 so far" does not take into account the
fact that we have a decent though not completely accurate total of the
number of flu cases in a given flu season. We're no where close to being
able to do that for COVOID-19.

I didn't even go out to get the mail today. We're still good for decent
food for at least the rest of the week, and if I do go out to the
grocery store, it'll be around 7 am when the stores are not crowded, and
I'll be wearing blue doctor's office gloves and carrying a spritzer of
Purell.

Got you worried eh? Imagine how scary it would be if Sleepy Joe was
behind the wheel.

--
Pity Fat Harry. His ability to produce rational thought on his own, no
longer exists, if it ever did at all.


  #16   Report Post  
Old March 25th 20, 01:10 PM posted to rec.boats
external usenet poster
 
First recorded activity by BoatBanter: Aug 2017
Posts: 4,666
Default Seasonal Flu

On 3/25/2020 9:05 AM, John wrote:
On Wed, 25 Mar 2020 08:58:41 -0400, "Mr. Luddite" wrote:

On 3/25/2020 8:42 AM, John wrote:
On Tue, 24 Mar 2020 21:30:41 -0400, "Mr. Luddite" wrote:

On 3/24/2020 9:20 PM, Keyser Soze wrote:
On 3/24/20 8:51 PM, Mr. Luddite wrote:


With all the focus on convid-19 and some of the dire warnings,
little is said much about the regular, seasonal Flu.

I looked up some info:

The regular, seasonal Flu has peaked in terms of how many have
caught it and is beginning to decline.

But the stats are surprising.

According to CDC estimates (USA):

*From October 1, 2019, through March 14, 2020, there have been:

38,000,000 – 54,000,000 flu illnesses

17,000,000 – 25,000,000 flu medical visits

390,000 – 710,000 flu hospitalizations

23,000 – 59,000 flu deaths

Another website with Flu statistics that also referenced
data from the CDC had slightly lower numbers but still
within the ranges shown above.

Makes me wonder what the deal is with the corvid-19 virus
(which is an entirely different virus).

Total deaths in the USA as of this post totals 696 with
confirmed cases of 53,276.

At first blush, it would seem like corvid-19 is being
way overblown in terms of it's threat ... OR ...
there's more to this than we are being told.





I don't believe we have even begun to get a handle on the number of
COVOID-19 cases that are extant in this country, nor has the "season"
for it come close to peaking.

Another factor: the percentage of deaths attributed to the flu versus
the percentage theoretically attributable to COVID-19.

Let's say there are 45 million flu cases a year here, a number between
38 and 54 million, and 35,000 deaths, again an arbitrary number. A 1%
death rate would add up to 450,000 deaths.

The estimates for the total number of possible COVOID-19 cases in this
country is* higher than the numbers of flu cases, and the death rate is
estimated to be much higher than the 1% rate for flu deaths. Also,
apparently it is far more contagious than flu.

I've had the various sorts of flu at least a half dozen times over the
years. A couple of times it knocked me on my ass, but I survived.

There are an awful lot of unknowns about COVOID-19.

But, hell, we'll be through it by Easter, your Trump sort of says.


I am tired, so maybe I am screwed up but the flu numbers mean that those
who got the flu (as of March 14th) is roughly 1,000 times the number of
people who have confirmed corvid-19 (latest number). Deaths due to flu
are roughly 30-40 times those of corvid-19 so far.

I don't know who to believe anymore. Saw Mayor Bill De Blasio earlier
delivering a very dire message of what he sees in our future. Then,
as you say, Trump thinks everything will be hunky-dory in about 3-4
weeks.

I think the bottom line is nobody knows.

I don't think Trump has said everything will be hunky-dory at all. He would like
to get some folks back into the workplace by Easter. Not all the folks, and
maybe not a large percent of the folks, but the folks who live and work in areas
where the virus is not inflicting great damage.



Trump is pulling back somewhat on his original statements to "open the
USA for business". He's now refining it to reflect a limited, slow
"opening" depending on the data available in another 2 or 3 weeks.

I just wish he'd be a little more professional in how he announces
his thoughts, rather than brag about how smart he is. His description
of "the test" being "very unpleasant" with the swab being "stuck way up
into your nose and then a left turn at the eyeball" may be a goofy
attempt at humor but it sure doesn't inspire people to be tested
or to calm the public's concerns.


Agree with that 100%. His 'pre-briefing' routine is getting old.

I understand his concerns. The medical/scientific community being
academics who routinely deal with crunching numbers, creating models,
etc., are not as influenced by the economic ramifications.
Trump and state governors recognize the need for revenues to keep
the country and states operating.

It's a tough balance.


Another consideration on the Covid-19 statistics is that the mortality rate is
based on the number of deaths of confirmed cases of Covid-19. It does not
include those cases which are unconfirmed or not even reported. Increasing the
denominator with those would change the mortality rate significantly. The other
day you mentioned a number of 300,000 unreported cases, I believe. Add those to
the current denominator, and the rate changes significantly.



It's a good thing I am not a scientist tasked with trying to track and
figure this stuff out. I don't have a clue what's going on.



--
This email has been checked for viruses by AVG.
https://www.avg.com

  #17   Report Post  
Old March 25th 20, 01:13 PM posted to rec.boats
external usenet poster
 
First recorded activity by BoatBanter: Feb 2018
Posts: 90
Default Seasonal Flu

On 3/25/2020 8:08 AM, Keyser Soze wrote:
On 3/25/20 3:18 AM, Mr. Luddite wrote:
On 3/24/2020 9:20 PM, Keyser Soze wrote:
On 3/24/20 8:51 PM, Mr. Luddite wrote:


With all the focus on convid-19 and some of the dire warnings,
little is said much about the regular, seasonal Flu.

I looked up some info:

The regular, seasonal Flu has peaked in terms of how many have
caught it and is beginning to decline.

But the stats are surprising.

According to CDC estimates (USA):

*From October 1, 2019, through March 14, 2020, there have been:

38,000,000 – 54,000,000 flu illnesses

17,000,000 – 25,000,000 flu medical visits

390,000 – 710,000 flu hospitalizations

23,000 – 59,000 flu deaths

Another website with Flu statistics that also referenced
data from the CDC had slightly lower numbers but still
within the ranges shown above.

Makes me wonder what the deal is with the corvid-19 virus
(which is an entirely different virus).

Total deaths in the USA as of this post totals 696 with
confirmed cases of 53,276.

At first blush, it would seem like corvid-19 is being
way overblown in terms of it's threat ... OR ...
there's more to this than we are being told.





I don't believe we have even begun to get a handle on the number of
COVOID-19 cases that are extant in this country, nor has the "season"
for it come close to peaking.

Another factor: the percentage of deaths attributed to the flu versus
the percentage theoretically attributable to COVID-19.

Let's say there are 45 million flu cases a year here, a number
between 38 and 54 million, and 35,000 deaths, again an arbitrary
number. A 1% death rate would add up to 450,000 deaths.

The estimates for the total number of possible COVOID-19 cases in
this country is* higher than the numbers of flu cases, and the death
rate is estimated to be much higher than the 1% rate for flu deaths.
Also, apparently it is far more contagious than flu.

I've had the various sorts of flu at least a half dozen times over
the years. A couple of times it knocked me on my ass, but I survived.

There are an awful lot of unknowns about COVOID-19.

But, hell, we'll be through it by Easter, your Trump sort of says.



It seems that what is driving the concern is the percentages of deaths
(flu versus covid-19).* Percentages* produce
a different perspective than raw numbers.* Flu looks like about a
0.15 percent death rate where covid-19 looks like 1.5%.** Yet the raw
numbers (about 35,000 versus 700) produces a totally different
perspective.

I am starting to believe we are in for a very long, long ride.
There are some reports of China's infection rate is beginning
to climb again in the area of the initial "ground zero"
which may suggest a second wave of the virus has begun.



I agree and our almost complete unpreparedness for something like this,
plus a POTUS who pooh-poohed it for many weeks, plus all the back and
forth bull**** he is spewing now ain't helping. His daily briefings are
a horror show. He needs to get off that podium, let the experts update
us when they have hard information, and not every day.


You can't even manage your own business properly. Who are you to say
what anyone needs to do?

--
Pity Fat Harry. His ability to produce rational thought on his own, no
longer exists, if it ever did at all.
  #18   Report Post  
Old March 25th 20, 01:15 PM posted to rec.boats
external usenet poster
 
First recorded activity by BoatBanter: Jul 2007
Posts: 34,154
Default Seasonal Flu

On Wed, 25 Mar 2020 03:18:46 -0400, "Mr. Luddite"
wrote:

On 3/24/2020 9:20 PM, Keyser Soze wrote:
On 3/24/20 8:51 PM, Mr. Luddite wrote:


With all the focus on convid-19 and some of the dire warnings,
little is said much about the regular, seasonal Flu.

I looked up some info:

The regular, seasonal Flu has peaked in terms of how many have
caught it and is beginning to decline.

But the stats are surprising.

According to CDC estimates (USA):

*From October 1, 2019, through March 14, 2020, there have been:

38,000,000 – 54,000,000 flu illnesses

17,000,000 – 25,000,000 flu medical visits

390,000 – 710,000 flu hospitalizations

23,000 – 59,000 flu deaths

Another website with Flu statistics that also referenced
data from the CDC had slightly lower numbers but still
within the ranges shown above.

Makes me wonder what the deal is with the corvid-19 virus
(which is an entirely different virus).

Total deaths in the USA as of this post totals 696 with
confirmed cases of 53,276.

At first blush, it would seem like corvid-19 is being
way overblown in terms of it's threat ... OR ...
there's more to this than we are being told.





I don't believe we have even begun to get a handle on the number of
COVOID-19 cases that are extant in this country, nor has the "season"
for it come close to peaking.

Another factor: the percentage of deaths attributed to the flu versus
the percentage theoretically attributable to COVID-19.

Let's say there are 45 million flu cases a year here, a number between
38 and 54 million, and 35,000 deaths, again an arbitrary number. A 1%
death rate would add up to 450,000 deaths.

The estimates for the total number of possible COVOID-19 cases in this
country is* higher than the numbers of flu cases, and the death rate is
estimated to be much higher than the 1% rate for flu deaths. Also,
apparently it is far more contagious than flu.

I've had the various sorts of flu at least a half dozen times over the
years. A couple of times it knocked me on my ass, but I survived.

There are an awful lot of unknowns about COVOID-19.

But, hell, we'll be through it by Easter, your Trump sort of says.



It seems that what is driving the concern is the percentages of deaths
(flu versus covid-19). Percentages produce
a different perspective than raw numbers. Flu looks like about a
0.15 percent death rate where covid-19 looks like 1.5%. Yet the raw
numbers (about 35,000 versus 700) produces a totally different
perspective.

I am starting to believe we are in for a very long, long ride.
There are some reports of China's infection rate is beginning
to climb again in the area of the initial "ground zero"
which may suggest a second wave of the virus has begun.


Is anyone surprised about China. You can only hide so long from
something like this. It started with one guy and one guy can start it
up again until a significant number of the population is immune. If a
totalitarian culture like China is having this problem, imagine what
happens in a free society.
We are seeing here right now. People who are infected are fleeing New
York and spraying the infection across the country at 600 MPH.
  #19   Report Post  
Old March 25th 20, 01:53 PM posted to rec.boats
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Posts: 2,337
Default Seasonal Flu

On Wed, 25 Mar 2020 08:23:10 -0400, "Mr. Luddite"
wrote:

On 3/25/2020 8:08 AM, Keyser Soze wrote:
On 3/25/20 3:18 AM, Mr. Luddite wrote:
On 3/24/2020 9:20 PM, Keyser Soze wrote:
On 3/24/20 8:51 PM, Mr. Luddite wrote:


With all the focus on convid-19 and some of the dire warnings,
little is said much about the regular, seasonal Flu.

I looked up some info:

The regular, seasonal Flu has peaked in terms of how many have
caught it and is beginning to decline.

But the stats are surprising.

According to CDC estimates (USA):

*From October 1, 2019, through March 14, 2020, there have been:

38,000,000 54,000,000 flu illnesses

17,000,000 25,000,000 flu medical visits

390,000 710,000 flu hospitalizations

23,000 59,000 flu deaths

Another website with Flu statistics that also referenced
data from the CDC had slightly lower numbers but still
within the ranges shown above.

Makes me wonder what the deal is with the corvid-19 virus
(which is an entirely different virus).

Total deaths in the USA as of this post totals 696 with
confirmed cases of 53,276.

At first blush, it would seem like corvid-19 is being
way overblown in terms of it's threat ... OR ...
there's more to this than we are being told.





I don't believe we have even begun to get a handle on the number of
COVOID-19 cases that are extant in this country, nor has the "season"
for it come close to peaking.

Another factor: the percentage of deaths attributed to the flu versus
the percentage theoretically attributable to COVID-19.

Let's say there are 45 million flu cases a year here, a number
between 38 and 54 million, and 35,000 deaths, again an arbitrary
number. A 1% death rate would add up to 450,000 deaths.

The estimates for the total number of possible COVOID-19 cases in
this country is* higher than the numbers of flu cases, and the death
rate is estimated to be much higher than the 1% rate for flu deaths.
Also, apparently it is far more contagious than flu.

I've had the various sorts of flu at least a half dozen times over
the years. A couple of times it knocked me on my ass, but I survived.

There are an awful lot of unknowns about COVOID-19.

But, hell, we'll be through it by Easter, your Trump sort of says.


It seems that what is driving the concern is the percentages of deaths
(flu versus covid-19).* Percentages* produce
a different perspective than raw numbers.* Flu looks like about a
0.15 percent death rate where covid-19 looks like 1.5%.** Yet the raw
numbers (about 35,000 versus 700) produces a totally different
perspective.

I am starting to believe we are in for a very long, long ride.
There are some reports of China's infection rate is beginning
to climb again in the area of the initial "ground zero"
which may suggest a second wave of the virus has begun.



I agree and our almost complete unpreparedness for something like this,
plus a POTUS who pooh-poohed it for many weeks, plus all the back and
forth bull**** he is spewing now ain't helping. His daily briefings are
a horror show. He needs to get off that podium, let the experts update
us when they have hard information, and not every day.



If possible (but I know it's asking the impossible) I'd like to focus
this thread on the issues of seasonal flu versus C-19 and not politics.
Nobody was prepared for this.

One possibility is that as a society we have "accepted" the casualties
of the yearly seasonal flu, much like we have pretty much accepted
the casualties as a result of car accidents, suicides and other
deaths. It's just factored into our lives.

Why c-19 is different and the attention it is getting with shutdowns
of businesses, etc. is the question. Probably the level of
contagiousness and the rapid spread throughout the world are factors.

Sources are saying that the rate of infection in places like Italy
are beginning to level off and may even be declining. The graph
on John's link (below) seems to be showing a slowing of world
infections.

If that happens in other countries, the death numbers may still be
lower world-wide than the flu deaths in the USA in one season.

Link:

http://ncov.bii.virginia.edu/dashboard/?fbclid=IwAR0p3SzdCXvoeCqWLpW9e3NJsSPahWEThqxOlw99 hX8cshDW6GbdBdCH-jk


===

I look at those graphs several times a day. There seems to be a daily
anomaly between the morning and evening data, possibly caused by a
reporting lag. In the morning you can convince yourself that there
has been an inflection point and things are starting to level off.
Late in the day that effect seems to disappear.

--
This email has been checked for viruses by AVG.
https://www.avg.com

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Old March 25th 20, 01:56 PM posted to rec.boats
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Posts: 9,965
Default Seasonal Flu

On 3/25/20 8:58 AM, Mr. Luddite wrote:
On 3/25/2020 8:42 AM, John wrote:
On Tue, 24 Mar 2020 21:30:41 -0400, "Mr. Luddite"
wrote:

On 3/24/2020 9:20 PM, Keyser Soze wrote:
On 3/24/20 8:51 PM, Mr. Luddite wrote:


With all the focus on convid-19 and some of the dire warnings,
little is said much about the regular, seasonal Flu.

I looked up some info:

The regular, seasonal Flu has peaked in terms of how many have
caught it and is beginning to decline.

But the stats are surprising.

According to CDC estimates (USA):

**From October 1, 2019, through March 14, 2020, there have been:

38,000,000 – 54,000,000 flu illnesses

17,000,000 – 25,000,000 flu medical visits

390,000 – 710,000 flu hospitalizations

23,000 – 59,000 flu deaths

Another website with Flu statistics that also referenced
data from the CDC had slightly lower numbers but still
within the ranges shown above.

Makes me wonder what the deal is with the corvid-19 virus
(which is an entirely different virus).

Total deaths in the USA as of this post totals 696 with
confirmed cases of 53,276.

At first blush, it would seem like corvid-19 is being
way overblown in terms of it's threat ... OR ...
there's more to this than we are being told.





I don't believe we have even begun to get a handle on the number of
COVOID-19 cases that are extant in this country, nor has the "season"
for it come close to peaking.

Another factor: the percentage of deaths attributed to the flu versus
the percentage theoretically attributable to COVID-19.

Let's say there are 45 million flu cases a year here, a number between
38 and 54 million, and 35,000 deaths, again an arbitrary number. A 1%
death rate would add up to 450,000 deaths.

The estimates for the total number of possible COVOID-19 cases in this
country is* higher than the numbers of flu cases, and the death rate is
estimated to be much higher than the 1% rate for flu deaths. Also,
apparently it is far more contagious than flu.

I've had the various sorts of flu at least a half dozen times over the
years. A couple of times it knocked me on my ass, but I survived.

There are an awful lot of unknowns about COVOID-19.

But, hell, we'll be through it by Easter, your Trump sort of says.


I am tired, so maybe I am screwed up but the flu numbers mean that those
who got the flu (as of March 14th) is roughly 1,000 times the number of
people who have confirmed corvid-19 (latest number).* Deaths due to flu
are roughly 30-40 times those of corvid-19 so far.

I don't know who to believe anymore.* Saw Mayor Bill De Blasio earlier
delivering a very dire message of what he sees in our future.* Then,
as you say, Trump thinks everything will be hunky-dory in about 3-4
weeks.

I think the bottom line is nobody knows.


I don't think Trump has said everything will be hunky-dory at all. He
would like
to get some folks back into the workplace by Easter. Not all the
folks, and
maybe not a large percent of the folks, but the folks who live and
work in areas
where the virus is not inflicting great damage.



Trump is pulling back somewhat on his original statements to "open the
USA for business".* He's now refining it to reflect a limited, slow
"opening" depending on the data available in another 2 or 3 weeks.

I just wish he'd be a little more professional in how he announces
his thoughts, rather than brag about how smart he is.* His description
of "the test"* being "very unpleasant" with the swab being "stuck way up
into your nose and then a left turn at the eyeball" may be a goofy
attempt at humor but it sure doesn't inspire people to be tested
or to calm the public's concerns.

I understand his concerns.* The medical/scientific community being
academics who routinely deal with crunching numbers, creating models,
etc., are not as influenced by the economic ramifications.
Trump and state governors recognize the need for revenues to keep
the country and states operating.

It's a tough balance.

Please. Trump doesn't give a **** about this country. His only concern
is the impact this ****eree might have on his election this fall.


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