Hate to bring up boating...
 

"JimH" wrote in message
...

"Vic Smith" wrote in message
...
On Tue, 11 Mar 2008 08:07:37 -0400, "Ernest Scribbler"
wrote:

"F.L.A.-J.I.M" wrote
I wonder if there will be a renewed interest in sailing?

I switched in 2006. Used about two gallons of gas last year.

Heh. Never even considered anything but sailboat or gas-miserly
skiff. The skiff is looking less likely.

--Vic

$3.45/gallon on the street at the 3 stations near us today.

I hate to see what the dock prices will be when marinas start to open up
in April.

You've got me wondering about marina gas at the first of the season.
Are you getting last falls fuel..or do the marinas let the tanks pump dry
and replenish in March/April?

Hate to bring up boating...
 

On Mar 11, 4:45*pm, Short Wave Sportfishing
wrote:
On Tue, 11 Mar 2008 17:15:12 -0400, "Eisboch" wrote:

"John" wrote in message
.. .

Price of oil - if the value of the dollar drops by 50% *oil cost 100%
more. A $40 bbl of oil now costs $80 add in higher demand and that
accounts for the rest of the inflated price.

I just don't get it. *(I am an engineer, not an economist *:-) *)

The dollar has not dropped by 50%, yet the price of oil has more than
doubled (more if you go back a couple of years).
Plus ... it's a world wide price .... not unique to the US. * All countries
are paying much higher prices.

It's not about demand - demand accounts for maybe 10% of the increase
over the fundamental price of $48.75 (based on current demand,
historical data and current demand data). *They are blaming "demand",
but demand has stayed relatively level - despite the best efforts of
the IOC prognosticators. OPEC, at the last data point, has at least a
3.7 million spare production hold on a per day basis.

What's fueling this is pure speculation. *If you take a look at the
long contracts, over the past six months that this run up has been
occurring, the increase in long term interest has quadrupled. *That
means that interest in buying oil in say May, at $125 a barrel, has
increased four fold - there's money on the table that is willing to
buy at that level.

It's a self-fullfilling prophecy. *If there is that kind of money
willing to buy against $110, which is going to win out?

Add the fact that there is too much money chasing too little profit
and you get speculation.

Also, I read something today that oil is now being used as a currency
- people are buying oil and using the contracts as currency to
purchase other commodities in commodity swaps which is driving up the
prices of wheat, corn, soy bean and palm oil.

That is a classic speculative bubble. *And when it explodes, it's
going to be spectacular.

That's my story and I'm sticking to it. *:)

sounds good to me.....

Hate to bring up boating...
 

On Mar 11, 5:44*pm, Short Wave Sportfishing
wrote:
On Tue, 11 Mar 2008 17:56:04 -0400, "Eisboch" wrote:

"Short Wave Sportfishing" wrote in message
.. .

On Tue, 11 Mar 2008 17:15:12 -0400, "Eisboch" wrote:

I just don't get it. *(I am an engineer, not an economist *:-) *)

The dollar has not dropped by 50%, yet the price of oil has more than
doubled (more if you go back a couple of years).
Plus ... it's a world wide price .... not unique to the US. * All
countries
are paying much higher prices.

It's not about demand - demand accounts for maybe 10% of the increase
over the fundamental price of $48.75 (based on current demand,
historical data and current demand data). *They are blaming "demand",
but demand has stayed relatively level - despite the best efforts of
the IOC prognosticators. OPEC, at the last data point, has at least a
3.7 million spare production hold on a per day basis.

What's fueling this is pure speculation. *If you take a look at the
long contracts, over the past six months that this run up has been
occurring, the increase in long term interest has quadrupled. *That
means that interest in buying oil in say May, at $125 a barrel, has
increased four fold - there's money on the table that is willing to
buy at that level.

It's a self-fullfilling prophecy. *If there is that kind of money
willing to buy against $110, which is going to win out?

Add the fact that there is too much money chasing too little profit
and you get speculation.

Also, I read something today that oil is now being used as a currency
- people are buying oil and using the contracts as currency to
purchase other commodities in commodity swaps which is driving up the
prices of wheat, corn, soy bean and palm oil.

That is a classic speculative bubble. *And when it explodes, it's
going to be spectacular.

That's my story and I'm sticking to it. *:)

Well, you and Doug have convinced me. *I've thought and read about this
quite a bit since our last discussion and I think you guys are absolutely
correct. * The price of oil * (not the actual oil) * is being bet on daily.
Other market factors influence the price, but not like the wild, get rich
quick speculation.

Oh, and for the politicals .... Bush has absolutely no control over this.

There is literally nothing any politician can do about it - that's
what's so interesting.

The bubble will burst when the EU and BRIC countries start feeling the
inflation. *BRIC is already feeling some inflationary pressure and the
EU is ignoring inflation to concentrate on growth and they will be
seeing it very soon - most likely by July, possibly before.

Oddly, the one agency that can do something about it is actually the
FED. *These two really innovative moves it's made over the past two
days makes it pretty clear that the FED has a handle on it and it
using some unique magic in their bag of tricks. *What they are
basically saying is screw inflation - get the dollar back on track,
get the banks lending again and growth back to 2.5/3% - then we'll
deal with inflation because by the time we get back to steady,
inflation will take care of itself. *Even more interesting, the EU
Central Bank has finally woke up to the fact that they have to
coordinate with the FED which they did today.

Very interesting what Bernacke and his cronies have done - not your
usual techniques.- Hide quoted text -

- Show quoted text -

Sounds good to me....

Hate to bring up boating...
 

On Mar 11, 5:58*pm, "Don White" wrote:
"JimH" wrote in message

...







"Vic Smith" wrote in message
.. .
On Tue, 11 Mar 2008 08:07:37 -0400, "Ernest Scribbler"
wrote:

"F.L.A.-J.I.M" wrote
I wonder if there will be a renewed interest in sailing?

I switched in 2006. Used about two gallons of gas last year.

Heh. *Never even considered anything but sailboat or gas-miserly
skiff. *The skiff is looking less likely.

--Vic

$3.45/gallon on the street at the 3 stations near us today.

I hate to see what the dock prices will be when marinas start to open up
in April.

You've got me wondering about marina gas at the first of the season.
Are you getting last falls fuel..or do the marinas let the tanks pump dry
and replenish in March/April?- Hide quoted text -

- Show quoted text -

Don, I imagine they left there what was there. If anything else they
may have topepd off in the late fall due to condensation.

Just like you should a boat.

Hate to bring up boating...
 

Don White wrote:
"HK" wrote in message
...
Eisboch wrote:
"HK" wrote in message
...

...but the average price of gasoline has hit a record nationally, even
adjusted for inflation, according to CNN this morning.
or four engines.

Maybe that's why there is so much discussion here of guitars, stock car
racing, television set, et cetera... :)

Not really. We still have a several year supply of cheap diesel fuel to
use up on the GB if we keep it.
Unless I take it on a long distance trip, what we have will probably last
2 or 3 seasons of "normal" usage.

The real reason is because it' still as cold, wet and crappy up here.
Light snow in the forecast for tomorrow.

Eisboch
Yeah, it was 34F here when I took my leashed "outdoor" cat for a walk a
while ago. I told him it was too damned cold, but he was having none of
it.

I had to go back to wearing my mittens when walking our Springer Spaniel
yesterday.



Mittens? Grow a pair and get your boy to walk the damn dog.

Hate to bring up boating...
 

On Tue, 11 Mar 2008 18:01:39 -0400, "D.Duck" wrote:


"Eisboch" wrote in message
m...

"Short Wave Sportfishing" wrote in message
...

On Tue, 11 Mar 2008 17:15:12 -0400, "Eisboch" wrote:

I just don't get it. (I am an engineer, not an economist :-) )

The dollar has not dropped by 50%, yet the price of oil has more than
doubled (more if you go back a couple of years).
Plus ... it's a world wide price .... not unique to the US. All
countries
are paying much higher prices.


It's not about demand - demand accounts for maybe 10% of the increase
over the fundamental price of $48.75 (based on current demand,
historical data and current demand data). They are blaming "demand",
but demand has stayed relatively level - despite the best efforts of
the IOC prognosticators. OPEC, at the last data point, has at least a
3.7 million spare production hold on a per day basis.

What's fueling this is pure speculation. If you take a look at the
long contracts, over the past six months that this run up has been
occurring, the increase in long term interest has quadrupled. That
means that interest in buying oil in say May, at $125 a barrel, has
increased four fold - there's money on the table that is willing to
buy at that level.

It's a self-fullfilling prophecy. If there is that kind of money
willing to buy against $110, which is going to win out?

Add the fact that there is too much money chasing too little profit
and you get speculation.

Also, I read something today that oil is now being used as a currency
- people are buying oil and using the contracts as currency to
purchase other commodities in commodity swaps which is driving up the
prices of wheat, corn, soy bean and palm oil.

That is a classic speculative bubble. And when it explodes, it's
going to be spectacular.

That's my story and I'm sticking to it. :)



Well, you and Doug have convinced me. I've thought and read about this
quite a bit since our last discussion and I think you guys are absolutely
correct. The price of oil (not the actual oil) is being bet on
daily. Other market factors influence the price, but not like the wild,
get rich quick speculation.

Oh, and for the politicals .... Bush has absolutely no control over this.

Eisboch

According to some, he could just say STOP IT. 8-)


That might work for some of the investors in this country, but it probably
wouldn't have much affect on those in Singapore.

Of course, it's Bush's fault anyway. He should have taken action several
years ago to make sure we weren't using oil any more.
--
John

Hate to bring up boating...
 

On Mar 11, 5:45*pm, Short Wave Sportfishing
wrote:
On Tue, 11 Mar 2008 17:15:12 -0400, "Eisboch" wrote:

"John" wrote in message
.. .

Price of oil - if the value of the dollar drops by 50% *oil cost 100%
more. A $40 bbl of oil now costs $80 add in higher demand and that
accounts for the rest of the inflated price.

I just don't get it. *(I am an engineer, not an economist *:-) *)

The dollar has not dropped by 50%, yet the price of oil has more than
doubled (more if you go back a couple of years).
Plus ... it's a world wide price .... not unique to the US. * All countries
are paying much higher prices.

It's not about demand - demand accounts for maybe 10% of the increase
over the fundamental price of $48.75 (based on current demand,
historical data and current demand data). *They are blaming "demand",
but demand has stayed relatively level - despite the best efforts of
the IOC prognosticators. OPEC, at the last data point, has at least a
3.7 million spare production hold on a per day basis.

What's fueling this is pure speculation. *If you take a look at the
long contracts, over the past six months that this run up has been
occurring, the increase in long term interest has quadrupled. *That
means that interest in buying oil in say May, at $125 a barrel, has
increased four fold - there's money on the table that is willing to
buy at that level.

It's a self-fullfilling prophecy. *If there is that kind of money
willing to buy against $110, which is going to win out?

Add the fact that there is too much money chasing too little profit
and you get speculation.

Also, I read something today that oil is now being used as a currency
- people are buying oil and using the contracts as currency to
purchase other commodities in commodity swaps which is driving up the
prices of wheat, corn, soy bean and palm oil.

That is a classic speculative bubble. *And when it explodes, it's
going to be spectacular.

That's my story and I'm sticking to it. *:)

Here's hoping you are right, even if I don't get the boat;)

Hate to bring up boating...
 

On Mar 11, 5:15*pm, Vic Smith wrote:
*The Wall Street Greed gang
is running this ship, and the crew has lost all discipline, drunk as
they are on cheap Chinese grog. *


"The only traditions of the Royal Navy are rum, sodomy and the lash."
- (Churchill's assistant, Anthony Montague-Browne )