Hate to bring up boating...
 

....but the average price of gasoline has hit a record nationally, even
adjusted for inflation, according to CNN this morning.

The average price is now higher than quoted in this squib:

NEW YORK (Reuters) - U.S. average retail gasoline prices have reached a
new high of almost $3.20 per gallon and will likely jump another 20 to
30 cents in the next month, worsening the pain of consumers struggling
to make ends meet in an economic downturn.

$3.22, according to CNN.

This is going to have a major impact on almost all aspects of boating, I
would guess. Ironic, because I was looking at a huge set of photos from
the recent Miami International Boat Show, and almost everyone seemed to
be offering ever larger boats, including many outboard models with three
or four engines.

Maybe that's why there is so much discussion here of guitars, stock car
racing, television set, et cetera... :)

Hate to bring up boating...
 

"HK" wrote in message
...
...but the average price of gasoline has hit a record nationally, even
adjusted for inflation, according to CNN this morning.

The average price is now higher than quoted in this squib:

NEW YORK (Reuters) - U.S. average retail gasoline prices have reached a
new high of almost $3.20 per gallon and will likely jump another 20 to 30
cents in the next month, worsening the pain of consumers struggling to
make ends meet in an economic downturn.

$3.22, according to CNN.

This is going to have a major impact on almost all aspects of boating, I
would guess. Ironic, because I was looking at a huge set of photos from
the recent Miami International Boat Show, and almost everyone seemed to be
offering ever larger boats, including many outboard models with three or
four engines.

Maybe that's why there is so much discussion here of guitars, stock car
racing, television set, et cetera... :)

I wonder if there will be a renewed interest in sailing?

Hate to bring up boating...
 

HK wrote:
...but the average price of gasoline has hit a record nationally, even
adjusted for inflation, according to CNN this morning.

The average price is now higher than quoted in this squib:

NEW YORK (Reuters) - U.S. average retail gasoline prices have reached a
new high of almost $3.20 per gallon and will likely jump another 20 to
30 cents in the next month, worsening the pain of consumers struggling
to make ends meet in an economic downturn.

$3.22, according to CNN.

This is going to have a major impact on almost all aspects of boating, I
would guess. Ironic, because I was looking at a huge set of photos from
the recent Miami International Boat Show, and almost everyone seemed to
be offering ever larger boats, including many outboard models with three
or four engines.

Maybe that's why there is so much discussion here of guitars, stock car
racing, television set, et cetera... :)


Oil is now up over $109 a barrel.

Hate to bring up boating...
 

wrote:

"HK" wrote in message
...
...but the average price of gasoline has hit a record nationally, even
adjusted for inflation, according to CNN this morning.

The average price is now higher than quoted in this squib:

NEW YORK (Reuters) - U.S. average retail gasoline prices have reached
a new high of almost $3.20 per gallon and will likely jump another 20
to 30 cents in the next month, worsening the pain of consumers
struggling to make ends meet in an economic downturn.

$3.22, according to CNN.

This is going to have a major impact on almost all aspects of boating,
I would guess. Ironic, because I was looking at a huge set of photos
from the recent Miami International Boat Show, and almost everyone
seemed to be offering ever larger boats, including many outboard
models with three or four engines.

Maybe that's why there is so much discussion here of guitars, stock
car racing, television set, et cetera... :)

I wonder if there will be a renewed interest in sailing?


Exxon bought the wind.

Hate to bring up boating...
 

"F.L.A.-J.I.M" wrote
I wonder if there will be a renewed interest in sailing?

I switched in 2006. Used about two gallons of gas last year.

Hate to bring up boating...
 

"HK" wrote in message
...

...but the average price of gasoline has hit a record nationally, even
adjusted for inflation, according to CNN this morning.
or four engines.

Maybe that's why there is so much discussion here of guitars, stock car
racing, television set, et cetera... :)


Not really. We still have a several year supply of cheap diesel fuel to use
up on the GB if we keep it.
Unless I take it on a long distance trip, what we have will probably last 2
or 3 seasons of "normal" usage.

The real reason is because it' still as cold, wet and crappy up here.
Light snow in the forecast for tomorrow.

Eisboch

Hate to bring up boating...
 

Ernest Scribbler wrote:
"F.L.A.-J.I.M" wrote
I wonder if there will be a renewed interest in sailing?

I switched in 2006. Used about two gallons of gas last year.



I have found I run my engine at a lower rpm, just enough to stay on
plane. I also do not "cruise" up the lake just for the fun of it. I
might anchor off an island and spend the entire weekend at anchor.
There is normally a friend rafting up with us, with a runabout pulling
the kids in the tubes and waterskis.

Hate to bring up boating...
 

Eisboch wrote:
"HK" wrote in message
...

...but the average price of gasoline has hit a record nationally, even
adjusted for inflation, according to CNN this morning.
or four engines.

Maybe that's why there is so much discussion here of guitars, stock car
racing, television set, et cetera... :)


Not really. We still have a several year supply of cheap diesel fuel to use
up on the GB if we keep it.
Unless I take it on a long distance trip, what we have will probably last 2
or 3 seasons of "normal" usage.

The real reason is because it' still as cold, wet and crappy up here.
Light snow in the forecast for tomorrow.

Eisboch



Yeah, it was 34F here when I took my leashed "outdoor" cat for a walk a
while ago. I told him it was too damned cold, but he was having none of it.

Hate to bring up boating...
 

On Mar 11, 8:28*am, HK wrote:
Eisboch wrote:
"HK" wrote in message
...

...but the average price of gasoline has hit a record nationally, even
adjusted for inflation, according to CNN this morning.
or four engines.

Maybe that's why there is so much discussion here of guitars, stock car
racing, television set, et cetera... *:)

Not really. *We still have a several year supply of cheap diesel fuel to use
up on the GB if we keep it.
Unless I take it on a long distance trip, what we have will probably last 2
or 3 seasons of "normal" usage.

The real reason is because it' still *as cold, wet and crappy up here.
Light snow in the forecast for tomorrow.

Eisboch

Yeah, it was 34F here when I took my leashed "outdoor" cat for a walk a
while ago. I told him it was too damned cold, but he was having none of it..- Hide quoted text -

- Show quoted text -

I have to wonder about it. Last time the gas crunch hit, my little
boats went like wildfire.. so far this week I have had over 1000 hits
to my website, I imagine if I get healthy and put the order page back
up, it will go nuts as folks downgrade their gas usage.. An my boats
will have flotation so you can skimp without being stupid;)

Hate to bring up boating...
 

Hate to bring up boating...
 

"HK" wrote in message
...
Eisboch wrote:
"HK" wrote in message
...

...but the average price of gasoline has hit a record nationally, even
adjusted for inflation, according to CNN this morning.
or four engines.

Maybe that's why there is so much discussion here of guitars, stock car
racing, television set, et cetera... :)


Not really. We still have a several year supply of cheap diesel fuel to
use up on the GB if we keep it.
Unless I take it on a long distance trip, what we have will probably last
2 or 3 seasons of "normal" usage.

The real reason is because it' still as cold, wet and crappy up here.
Light snow in the forecast for tomorrow.

Eisboch

Yeah, it was 34F here when I took my leashed "outdoor" cat for a walk a
while ago. I told him it was too damned cold, but he was having none of
it.

I had to go back to wearing my mittens when walking our Springer Spaniel
yesterday.

Hate to bring up boating...
 

"HK" wrote in message
...
wrote:
On Mar 11, 8:28 am, HK wrote:
Eisboch wrote:
"HK" wrote in message
...
...but the average price of gasoline has hit a record nationally, even
adjusted for inflation, according to CNN this morning.
or four engines.
Maybe that's why there is so much discussion here of guitars, stock
car
racing, television set, et cetera... :)
Not really. We still have a several year supply of cheap diesel fuel
to use
up on the GB if we keep it.
Unless I take it on a long distance trip, what we have will probably
last 2
or 3 seasons of "normal" usage.
The real reason is because it' still as cold, wet and crappy up here.
Light snow in the forecast for tomorrow.
Eisboch
Yeah, it was 34F here when I took my leashed "outdoor" cat for a walk a
while ago. I told him it was too damned cold, but he was having none of
it.- Hide quoted text -

- Show quoted text -

I have to wonder about it. Last time the gas crunch hit, my little
boats went like wildfire.. so far this week I have had over 1000 hits
to my website, I imagine if I get healthy and put the order page back
up, it will go nuts as folks downgrade their gas usage.. An my boats
will have flotation so you can skimp without being stupid;)


I am in favor of boat "downsizing." I did it, but saving gas was not the
primary reason. Still, it is an appealing benefit. I burn a little more
than half as much gasoline at cruise with my F150 than I did with the
F225.

I suppose the Lake Lanier boys will save a lot of money on gas this year,
because their boats will be on the hard. :)

Waylon can just let his boat drift from shore to shore.

Hate to bring up boating...
 

"HK" wrote in message
...
HK wrote:
...but the average price of gasoline has hit a record nationally, even
adjusted for inflation, according to CNN this morning.

The average price is now higher than quoted in this squib:

NEW YORK (Reuters) - U.S. average retail gasoline prices have reached a
new high of almost $3.20 per gallon and will likely jump another 20 to 30
cents in the next month, worsening the pain of consumers struggling to
make ends meet in an economic downturn.

$3.22, according to CNN.

This is going to have a major impact on almost all aspects of boating, I
would guess. Ironic, because I was looking at a huge set of photos from
the recent Miami International Boat Show, and almost everyone seemed to
be offering ever larger boats, including many outboard models with three
or four engines.

Maybe that's why there is so much discussion here of guitars, stock car
racing, television set, et cetera... :)


Oil is now up over $109 a barrel.

A significant part of that is the fact that the dollar is worthless. Factor
in the declining value of the dollar. Thank you idiot bush.

Hate to bring up boating...
 

On Mar 11, 8:38*am, HK wrote:
wrote:
On Mar 11, 8:28 am, HK wrote:
Eisboch wrote:
"HK" wrote in message
...
...but the average price of gasoline has hit a record nationally, even
adjusted for inflation, according to CNN this morning.
or four engines.
Maybe that's why there is so much discussion here of guitars, stock car
racing, television set, et cetera... *:)
Not really. *We still have a several year supply of cheap diesel fuel to use
up on the GB if we keep it.
Unless I take it on a long distance trip, what we have will probably last 2
or 3 seasons of "normal" usage.
The real reason is because it' still *as cold, wet and crappy up here.
Light snow in the forecast for tomorrow.
Eisboch
Yeah, it was 34F here when I took my leashed "outdoor" cat for a walk a
while ago. I told him it was too damned cold, but he was having none of it.- Hide quoted text -

- Show quoted text -

I have to wonder about it. Last time the gas crunch hit, my little
boats went like wildfire.. so far this week I have had over 1000 hits
to my website, I imagine if I get healthy and put the order page back
up, it will go nuts as folks downgrade their gas usage.. An my boats
will have flotation so you can skimp without being stupid;)

I am in favor of boat "downsizing." I did it, but saving gas was not the
primary reason. Still, it is an appealing benefit. I burn a little more
than half as much gasoline at cruise with my F150 than I did with the F225..

I suppose the Lake Lanier boys will save a lot of money on gas this
year, because their boats will be on the hard. * :)- Hide quoted text -

- Show quoted text -

Why would their boats be on the hard? At least you don't have to buy
fuel to run, say a 36 foot Zimmerman like lobster boat.....

Hate to bring up boating...
 

"jamesgangnc" wrote in message
...


A significant part of that is the fact that the dollar is worthless.
Factor in the declining value of the dollar. Thank you idiot bush.


What does Bush (or any president) have to do with the price of oil or the
value of the dollar?

(Not argumentative, but I am really interested in learning how the POTUS
controls and is responsible for such things)

Please be specific and not speculative.

Eisboch

Hate to bring up boating...
 

Eisboch wrote:
"jamesgangnc" wrote in message
...

A significant part of that is the fact that the dollar is worthless.
Factor in the declining value of the dollar. Thank you idiot bush.


What does Bush (or any president) have to do with the price of oil or the
value of the dollar?

(Not argumentative, but I am really interested in learning how the POTUS
controls and is responsible for such things)

Please be specific and not speculative.

Eisboch




I have to leave for a meeting, so I don't have time for a numbered
answer, but the one thing Bush never takes seriously is the fact that he
has a "bully pulpit" to lean on oil companies, drug companies, importers
of Chinese toys, et cetera, and foster public opinion to force changes
in corporate behavior. He can also threaten legislation.

President Dupe, however, does nothing. He pays lip service to consumer
concerns, but he does nothing.

That's a starter.

Hate to bring up boating...
 

"HK" wrote in message
...
Eisboch wrote:
"jamesgangnc" wrote in message
...

A significant part of that is the fact that the dollar is worthless.
Factor in the declining value of the dollar. Thank you idiot bush.


What does Bush (or any president) have to do with the price of oil or
the value of the dollar?

(Not argumentative, but I am really interested in learning how the POTUS
controls and is responsible for such things)

Please be specific and not speculative.

Eisboch


I have to leave for a meeting, so I don't have time for a numbered answer,
but the one thing Bush never takes seriously is the fact that he has a
"bully pulpit" to lean on oil companies, drug companies, importers of
Chinese toys, et cetera, and foster public opinion to force changes in
corporate behavior. He can also threaten legislation.

President Dupe, however, does nothing. He pays lip service to consumer
concerns, but he does nothing.

That's a starter.

Fair enough, but still, it's speculative and subjective. I am looking for
specific reasons why and how the *POTUS* controls the price of oil on the
world market and the value of the dollar.

Eisboch

Hate to bring up boating...
 

On Tue, 11 Mar 2008 09:28:31 -0400, "Eisboch" wrote:

What does Bush (or any president) have to do with the price of oil or the
value of the dollar?

(Not argumentative, but I am really interested in learning how the POTUS
controls and is responsible for such things)

One major factor is the invasion of Iraq which was directly under
presidential control. It has taken large amounts of Iraqi petro
supply off line, contributed to the defecit spending issue, and
increased the trade imbalance.

Another factor is domestic fiscal policy which kept interest rates too
low for too long after the "dot com" bust. Higher interest rates
attract offshore funds which help to sustain a stronger dollar. Lower
interest rates do the opposite which is why the Fed is now caught
between a rock and a hard place. If they lower interest rates to
stimulate the economy and bail out the credit markets, the dollar will
continue to depreciate which creates inflationary pressures such as
higher oil costs.

The basic issue with oil however is supply and demand. Second and
third world countries have dramatically increased consumption as they
become increasingly developed, and there is only so much oil to go
around.

Hate to bring up boating...
 

On Mar 11, 9:42*am, "Eisboch" wrote:
"HK" wrote in message

...





Eisboch wrote:
"jamesgangnc" wrote in message
...

A significant part of that is the fact that the dollar is worthless.
Factor in the declining value of the dollar. *Thank you idiot bush.

What does Bush (or any president) *have to do with the price of oil or
the value of the dollar?

(Not argumentative, but I am really interested in learning how the POTUS
controls and is responsible for such things)

Please be specific and not speculative.

Eisboch

I have to leave for a meeting, so I don't have time for a numbered answer,
but the one thing Bush never takes seriously is the fact that he has a
"bully pulpit" to lean on oil companies, drug companies, importers of
Chinese toys, et cetera, and foster public opinion to force changes in
corporate behavior. He can also threaten legislation.

President Dupe, however, does nothing. He pays lip service to consumer
concerns, but he does nothing.

That's a starter.

Fair enough, but still, it's speculative and subjective. * I am looking for
specific reasons why and how the *POTUS* controls the price of oil on the
world market and the value of the dollar.

Eisboch- Hide quoted text -

- Show quoted text -

I'd just turn that question around. You think that the actions of the
us executive branch does not have any influence on the world economy?

It will always be speculative. But I'm thinking my speculation that
had bush done some things differently over the past 8 years the value
of the dollar would be higher and the price of a barrel of oil would
be lower is ringing true with a whole lot of the citizens these days.
The next set of choices will all be far more moderate than bush and
his crowd. McCain is a close to being a democrat as a republican can
be. If he wins it will be because moderates put him in so he's not
going to owe the extreme right wingnuts anything.

Hate to bring up boating...
 

On Tue, 11 Mar 2008 08:51:39 -0700, JamesGangNC wrote:


McCain is a close to being a democrat as a republican can be. If he
wins it will be because moderates put him in so he's not going to owe
the extreme right wingnuts anything.

The American Conservative Union gives McCain an 83, out of 100, lifetime
rating, hardly a Democrat. He doesn't follow the party line, which I
think is a good thing whether Democrat or Republican. But the only ones
questioning his conservative credentials, are those extreme right wing
nuts.

Hate to bring up boating...
 

This is going to have a major impact on almost all aspects of
boating,

Jesus...what are those fat, bloated, useless pricks you see on the
fishing shows going to do with their Pussy Bass Boats?????

Hate to bring up boating...
 

This thread was going fine till you ****ed it up, moron.

Hate to bring up boating...
 

Eat Me, Trolls wrote:
This is going to have a major impact on almost all aspects of
boating,

Jesus...what are those fat, bloated, useless pricks you see on the
fishing shows going to do with their Pussy Bass Boats?????

Oh, probably keep feeshin' as long as the sponsors keep-a payin' 'em
too.

Hate to bring up boating...
 

"John" wrote in message
...


Price of oil - if the value of the dollar drops by 50% oil cost 100%
more. A $40 bbl of oil now costs $80 add in higher demand and that
accounts for the rest of the inflated price.



I just don't get it. (I am an engineer, not an economist :-) )

The dollar has not dropped by 50%, yet the price of oil has more than
doubled (more if you go back a couple of years).
Plus ... it's a world wide price .... not unique to the US. All countries
are paying much higher prices.

Eisboch

Hate to bring up boating...
 

On Tue, 11 Mar 2008 17:15:12 -0400, "Eisboch" wrote:


"John" wrote in message
.. .

Price of oil - if the value of the dollar drops by 50% oil cost 100%
more. A $40 bbl of oil now costs $80 add in higher demand and that
accounts for the rest of the inflated price.

I just don't get it. (I am an engineer, not an economist :-) )

The dollar has not dropped by 50%, yet the price of oil has more than
doubled (more if you go back a couple of years).
Plus ... it's a world wide price .... not unique to the US. All countries
are paying much higher prices.

It's not about demand - demand accounts for maybe 10% of the increase
over the fundamental price of $48.75 (based on current demand,
historical data and current demand data). They are blaming "demand",
but demand has stayed relatively level - despite the best efforts of
the IOC prognosticators. OPEC, at the last data point, has at least a
3.7 million spare production hold on a per day basis.

What's fueling this is pure speculation. If you take a look at the
long contracts, over the past six months that this run up has been
occurring, the increase in long term interest has quadrupled. That
means that interest in buying oil in say May, at $125 a barrel, has
increased four fold - there's money on the table that is willing to
buy at that level.

It's a self-fullfilling prophecy. If there is that kind of money
willing to buy against $110, which is going to win out?

Add the fact that there is too much money chasing too little profit
and you get speculation.

Also, I read something today that oil is now being used as a currency
- people are buying oil and using the contracts as currency to
purchase other commodities in commodity swaps which is driving up the
prices of wheat, corn, soy bean and palm oil.

That is a classic speculative bubble. And when it explodes, it's
going to be spectacular.

That's my story and I'm sticking to it. :)

Hate to bring up boating...
 

"Short Wave Sportfishing" wrote in message
...

On Tue, 11 Mar 2008 17:15:12 -0400, "Eisboch" wrote:

I just don't get it. (I am an engineer, not an economist :-) )

The dollar has not dropped by 50%, yet the price of oil has more than
doubled (more if you go back a couple of years).
Plus ... it's a world wide price .... not unique to the US. All
countries
are paying much higher prices.


It's not about demand - demand accounts for maybe 10% of the increase
over the fundamental price of $48.75 (based on current demand,
historical data and current demand data). They are blaming "demand",
but demand has stayed relatively level - despite the best efforts of
the IOC prognosticators. OPEC, at the last data point, has at least a
3.7 million spare production hold on a per day basis.

What's fueling this is pure speculation. If you take a look at the
long contracts, over the past six months that this run up has been
occurring, the increase in long term interest has quadrupled. That
means that interest in buying oil in say May, at $125 a barrel, has
increased four fold - there's money on the table that is willing to
buy at that level.

It's a self-fullfilling prophecy. If there is that kind of money
willing to buy against $110, which is going to win out?

Add the fact that there is too much money chasing too little profit
and you get speculation.

Also, I read something today that oil is now being used as a currency
- people are buying oil and using the contracts as currency to
purchase other commodities in commodity swaps which is driving up the
prices of wheat, corn, soy bean and palm oil.

That is a classic speculative bubble. And when it explodes, it's
going to be spectacular.

That's my story and I'm sticking to it. :)



Well, you and Doug have convinced me. I've thought and read about this
quite a bit since our last discussion and I think you guys are absolutely
correct. The price of oil (not the actual oil) is being bet on daily.
Other market factors influence the price, but not like the wild, get rich
quick speculation.

Oh, and for the politicals .... Bush has absolutely no control over this.

Eisboch

Hate to bring up boating...
 

"Eisboch" wrote in message
...

"Short Wave Sportfishing" wrote in message
...

On Tue, 11 Mar 2008 17:15:12 -0400, "Eisboch" wrote:

I just don't get it. (I am an engineer, not an economist :-) )

The dollar has not dropped by 50%, yet the price of oil has more than
doubled (more if you go back a couple of years).
Plus ... it's a world wide price .... not unique to the US. All
countries
are paying much higher prices.


It's not about demand - demand accounts for maybe 10% of the increase
over the fundamental price of $48.75 (based on current demand,
historical data and current demand data). They are blaming "demand",
but demand has stayed relatively level - despite the best efforts of
the IOC prognosticators. OPEC, at the last data point, has at least a
3.7 million spare production hold on a per day basis.

What's fueling this is pure speculation. If you take a look at the
long contracts, over the past six months that this run up has been
occurring, the increase in long term interest has quadrupled. That
means that interest in buying oil in say May, at $125 a barrel, has
increased four fold - there's money on the table that is willing to
buy at that level.

It's a self-fullfilling prophecy. If there is that kind of money
willing to buy against $110, which is going to win out?

Add the fact that there is too much money chasing too little profit
and you get speculation.

Also, I read something today that oil is now being used as a currency
- people are buying oil and using the contracts as currency to
purchase other commodities in commodity swaps which is driving up the
prices of wheat, corn, soy bean and palm oil.

That is a classic speculative bubble. And when it explodes, it's
going to be spectacular.

That's my story and I'm sticking to it. :)



Well, you and Doug have convinced me. I've thought and read about this
quite a bit since our last discussion and I think you guys are absolutely
correct. The price of oil (not the actual oil) is being bet on
daily. Other market factors influence the price, but not like the wild,
get rich quick speculation.

Oh, and for the politicals .... Bush has absolutely no control over this.

Eisboch

According to some, he could just say STOP IT. 8-)

Hate to bring up boating...
 

On Tue, 11 Mar 2008 09:42:22 -0400, "Eisboch" wrote:




Fair enough, but still, it's speculative and subjective. I am looking for
specific reasons why and how the *POTUS* controls the price of oil on the
world market and the value of the dollar.

Ask yourself why the Captain is responsible when a ship runs aground.
Same difference.
Don't get me wrong. It's not just Bush. The Wall Street Greed gang
is running this ship, and the crew has lost all discipline, drunk as
they are on cheap Chinese grog. Bush is just their figurehead,
nothing more. It started with Reagan's hare-brained Voodoo economics,
and his successors have carried on.
But each Captain is still responsible.
The cheap dollar - Polish people tell American dollar jokes - can be
directly tied to U.S. deficit spending and debt, and lack of goods
production in the U.S. due to offshoring jobs to keep the grog cheap.
The price of oil is a storm the ship was willingly steered into, when
all the radar showed it was there. Good Captains would have treated
oil with at least as much respect as made water, and confined the crew
to Navy showers while he had the engineers work on alternatives.
But the Captains were weak, and the crew were whiners.
Long luxurious baths in oil were the norm.
The law of supply and demand was ignored.
We're on the rocks now. There's only one Captain.
I don't see the upcoming replacements as being much better.
It will take Pat Buchanan, Dick Nixon, maybe Lou Dobbs
types to get us off the rocks permanently.
A hardass, not the gutless internationalists in the hopper.
Might be facile analogies, but that's one way to look at it.
From my perspective, our biggest weakness is consumer deadbeatism.
As a country, you can't consume more than you produce.
Not for long, anyway.
Anyway, that's how I see it. Of course, I might be all wrong.

--Vic

Hate to bring up boating...
 

On Tue, 11 Mar 2008 08:07:37 -0400, "Ernest Scribbler"
wrote:

"F.L.A.-J.I.M" wrote
I wonder if there will be a renewed interest in sailing?

I switched in 2006. Used about two gallons of gas last year.

Heh. Never even considered anything but sailboat or gas-miserly
skiff. The skiff is looking less likely.

--Vic

Hate to bring up boating...
 

On Tue, 11 Mar 2008 17:56:04 -0400, "Eisboch" wrote:


"Short Wave Sportfishing" wrote in message
.. .

On Tue, 11 Mar 2008 17:15:12 -0400, "Eisboch" wrote:

I just don't get it. (I am an engineer, not an economist :-) )

The dollar has not dropped by 50%, yet the price of oil has more than
doubled (more if you go back a couple of years).
Plus ... it's a world wide price .... not unique to the US. All
countries
are paying much higher prices.


It's not about demand - demand accounts for maybe 10% of the increase
over the fundamental price of $48.75 (based on current demand,
historical data and current demand data). They are blaming "demand",
but demand has stayed relatively level - despite the best efforts of
the IOC prognosticators. OPEC, at the last data point, has at least a
3.7 million spare production hold on a per day basis.

What's fueling this is pure speculation. If you take a look at the
long contracts, over the past six months that this run up has been
occurring, the increase in long term interest has quadrupled. That
means that interest in buying oil in say May, at $125 a barrel, has
increased four fold - there's money on the table that is willing to
buy at that level.

It's a self-fullfilling prophecy. If there is that kind of money
willing to buy against $110, which is going to win out?

Add the fact that there is too much money chasing too little profit
and you get speculation.

Also, I read something today that oil is now being used as a currency
- people are buying oil and using the contracts as currency to
purchase other commodities in commodity swaps which is driving up the
prices of wheat, corn, soy bean and palm oil.

That is a classic speculative bubble. And when it explodes, it's
going to be spectacular.

That's my story and I'm sticking to it. :)

Well, you and Doug have convinced me. I've thought and read about this
quite a bit since our last discussion and I think you guys are absolutely
correct. The price of oil (not the actual oil) is being bet on daily.
Other market factors influence the price, but not like the wild, get rich
quick speculation.

Oh, and for the politicals .... Bush has absolutely no control over this.

There is literally nothing any politician can do about it - that's
what's so interesting.

The bubble will burst when the EU and BRIC countries start feeling the
inflation. BRIC is already feeling some inflationary pressure and the
EU is ignoring inflation to concentrate on growth and they will be
seeing it very soon - most likely by July, possibly before.

Oddly, the one agency that can do something about it is actually the
FED. These two really innovative moves it's made over the past two
days makes it pretty clear that the FED has a handle on it and it
using some unique magic in their bag of tricks. What they are
basically saying is screw inflation - get the dollar back on track,
get the banks lending again and growth back to 2.5/3% - then we'll
deal with inflation because by the time we get back to steady,
inflation will take care of itself. Even more interesting, the EU
Central Bank has finally woke up to the fact that they have to
coordinate with the FED which they did today.

Very interesting what Bernacke and his cronies have done - not your
usual techniques.

Hate to bring up boating...
 

"JimH" wrote in message
...

"Vic Smith" wrote in message
...
On Tue, 11 Mar 2008 08:07:37 -0400, "Ernest Scribbler"
wrote:

"F.L.A.-J.I.M" wrote
I wonder if there will be a renewed interest in sailing?

I switched in 2006. Used about two gallons of gas last year.

Heh. Never even considered anything but sailboat or gas-miserly
skiff. The skiff is looking less likely.

--Vic

$3.45/gallon on the street at the 3 stations near us today.

I hate to see what the dock prices will be when marinas start to open up
in April.

You've got me wondering about marina gas at the first of the season.
Are you getting last falls fuel..or do the marinas let the tanks pump dry
and replenish in March/April?

Hate to bring up boating...
 

On Mar 11, 4:45*pm, Short Wave Sportfishing
wrote:
On Tue, 11 Mar 2008 17:15:12 -0400, "Eisboch" wrote:

"John" wrote in message
.. .

Price of oil - if the value of the dollar drops by 50% *oil cost 100%
more. A $40 bbl of oil now costs $80 add in higher demand and that
accounts for the rest of the inflated price.

I just don't get it. *(I am an engineer, not an economist *:-) *)

The dollar has not dropped by 50%, yet the price of oil has more than
doubled (more if you go back a couple of years).
Plus ... it's a world wide price .... not unique to the US. * All countries
are paying much higher prices.

It's not about demand - demand accounts for maybe 10% of the increase
over the fundamental price of $48.75 (based on current demand,
historical data and current demand data). *They are blaming "demand",
but demand has stayed relatively level - despite the best efforts of
the IOC prognosticators. OPEC, at the last data point, has at least a
3.7 million spare production hold on a per day basis.

What's fueling this is pure speculation. *If you take a look at the
long contracts, over the past six months that this run up has been
occurring, the increase in long term interest has quadrupled. *That
means that interest in buying oil in say May, at $125 a barrel, has
increased four fold - there's money on the table that is willing to
buy at that level.

It's a self-fullfilling prophecy. *If there is that kind of money
willing to buy against $110, which is going to win out?

Add the fact that there is too much money chasing too little profit
and you get speculation.

Also, I read something today that oil is now being used as a currency
- people are buying oil and using the contracts as currency to
purchase other commodities in commodity swaps which is driving up the
prices of wheat, corn, soy bean and palm oil.

That is a classic speculative bubble. *And when it explodes, it's
going to be spectacular.

That's my story and I'm sticking to it. *:)

sounds good to me.....

Hate to bring up boating...
 

On Mar 11, 5:44*pm, Short Wave Sportfishing
wrote:
On Tue, 11 Mar 2008 17:56:04 -0400, "Eisboch" wrote:

"Short Wave Sportfishing" wrote in message
.. .

On Tue, 11 Mar 2008 17:15:12 -0400, "Eisboch" wrote:

I just don't get it. *(I am an engineer, not an economist *:-) *)

The dollar has not dropped by 50%, yet the price of oil has more than
doubled (more if you go back a couple of years).
Plus ... it's a world wide price .... not unique to the US. * All
countries
are paying much higher prices.

It's not about demand - demand accounts for maybe 10% of the increase
over the fundamental price of $48.75 (based on current demand,
historical data and current demand data). *They are blaming "demand",
but demand has stayed relatively level - despite the best efforts of
the IOC prognosticators. OPEC, at the last data point, has at least a
3.7 million spare production hold on a per day basis.

What's fueling this is pure speculation. *If you take a look at the
long contracts, over the past six months that this run up has been
occurring, the increase in long term interest has quadrupled. *That
means that interest in buying oil in say May, at $125 a barrel, has
increased four fold - there's money on the table that is willing to
buy at that level.

It's a self-fullfilling prophecy. *If there is that kind of money
willing to buy against $110, which is going to win out?

Add the fact that there is too much money chasing too little profit
and you get speculation.

Also, I read something today that oil is now being used as a currency
- people are buying oil and using the contracts as currency to
purchase other commodities in commodity swaps which is driving up the
prices of wheat, corn, soy bean and palm oil.

That is a classic speculative bubble. *And when it explodes, it's
going to be spectacular.

That's my story and I'm sticking to it. *:)

Well, you and Doug have convinced me. *I've thought and read about this
quite a bit since our last discussion and I think you guys are absolutely
correct. * The price of oil * (not the actual oil) * is being bet on daily.
Other market factors influence the price, but not like the wild, get rich
quick speculation.

Oh, and for the politicals .... Bush has absolutely no control over this.

There is literally nothing any politician can do about it - that's
what's so interesting.

The bubble will burst when the EU and BRIC countries start feeling the
inflation. *BRIC is already feeling some inflationary pressure and the
EU is ignoring inflation to concentrate on growth and they will be
seeing it very soon - most likely by July, possibly before.

Oddly, the one agency that can do something about it is actually the
FED. *These two really innovative moves it's made over the past two
days makes it pretty clear that the FED has a handle on it and it
using some unique magic in their bag of tricks. *What they are
basically saying is screw inflation - get the dollar back on track,
get the banks lending again and growth back to 2.5/3% - then we'll
deal with inflation because by the time we get back to steady,
inflation will take care of itself. *Even more interesting, the EU
Central Bank has finally woke up to the fact that they have to
coordinate with the FED which they did today.

Very interesting what Bernacke and his cronies have done - not your
usual techniques.- Hide quoted text -

- Show quoted text -

Sounds good to me....

Hate to bring up boating...
 

On Mar 11, 5:58*pm, "Don White" wrote:
"JimH" wrote in message

...







"Vic Smith" wrote in message
.. .
On Tue, 11 Mar 2008 08:07:37 -0400, "Ernest Scribbler"
wrote:

"F.L.A.-J.I.M" wrote
I wonder if there will be a renewed interest in sailing?

I switched in 2006. Used about two gallons of gas last year.

Heh. *Never even considered anything but sailboat or gas-miserly
skiff. *The skiff is looking less likely.

--Vic

$3.45/gallon on the street at the 3 stations near us today.

I hate to see what the dock prices will be when marinas start to open up
in April.

You've got me wondering about marina gas at the first of the season.
Are you getting last falls fuel..or do the marinas let the tanks pump dry
and replenish in March/April?- Hide quoted text -

- Show quoted text -

Don, I imagine they left there what was there. If anything else they
may have topepd off in the late fall due to condensation.

Just like you should a boat.

Hate to bring up boating...
 

Don White wrote:
"HK" wrote in message
...
Eisboch wrote:
"HK" wrote in message
...

...but the average price of gasoline has hit a record nationally, even
adjusted for inflation, according to CNN this morning.
or four engines.

Maybe that's why there is so much discussion here of guitars, stock car
racing, television set, et cetera... :)

Not really. We still have a several year supply of cheap diesel fuel to
use up on the GB if we keep it.
Unless I take it on a long distance trip, what we have will probably last
2 or 3 seasons of "normal" usage.

The real reason is because it' still as cold, wet and crappy up here.
Light snow in the forecast for tomorrow.

Eisboch
Yeah, it was 34F here when I took my leashed "outdoor" cat for a walk a
while ago. I told him it was too damned cold, but he was having none of
it.

I had to go back to wearing my mittens when walking our Springer Spaniel
yesterday.



Mittens? Grow a pair and get your boy to walk the damn dog.

Hate to bring up boating...
 

On Tue, 11 Mar 2008 18:01:39 -0400, "D.Duck" wrote:


"Eisboch" wrote in message
m...

"Short Wave Sportfishing" wrote in message
...

On Tue, 11 Mar 2008 17:15:12 -0400, "Eisboch" wrote:

I just don't get it. (I am an engineer, not an economist :-) )

The dollar has not dropped by 50%, yet the price of oil has more than
doubled (more if you go back a couple of years).
Plus ... it's a world wide price .... not unique to the US. All
countries
are paying much higher prices.


It's not about demand - demand accounts for maybe 10% of the increase
over the fundamental price of $48.75 (based on current demand,
historical data and current demand data). They are blaming "demand",
but demand has stayed relatively level - despite the best efforts of
the IOC prognosticators. OPEC, at the last data point, has at least a
3.7 million spare production hold on a per day basis.

What's fueling this is pure speculation. If you take a look at the
long contracts, over the past six months that this run up has been
occurring, the increase in long term interest has quadrupled. That
means that interest in buying oil in say May, at $125 a barrel, has
increased four fold - there's money on the table that is willing to
buy at that level.

It's a self-fullfilling prophecy. If there is that kind of money
willing to buy against $110, which is going to win out?

Add the fact that there is too much money chasing too little profit
and you get speculation.

Also, I read something today that oil is now being used as a currency
- people are buying oil and using the contracts as currency to
purchase other commodities in commodity swaps which is driving up the
prices of wheat, corn, soy bean and palm oil.

That is a classic speculative bubble. And when it explodes, it's
going to be spectacular.

That's my story and I'm sticking to it. :)



Well, you and Doug have convinced me. I've thought and read about this
quite a bit since our last discussion and I think you guys are absolutely
correct. The price of oil (not the actual oil) is being bet on
daily. Other market factors influence the price, but not like the wild,
get rich quick speculation.

Oh, and for the politicals .... Bush has absolutely no control over this.

Eisboch

According to some, he could just say STOP IT. 8-)


That might work for some of the investors in this country, but it probably
wouldn't have much affect on those in Singapore.

Of course, it's Bush's fault anyway. He should have taken action several
years ago to make sure we weren't using oil any more.
--
John

Hate to bring up boating...
 

On Mar 11, 5:45*pm, Short Wave Sportfishing
wrote:
On Tue, 11 Mar 2008 17:15:12 -0400, "Eisboch" wrote:

"John" wrote in message
.. .

Price of oil - if the value of the dollar drops by 50% *oil cost 100%
more. A $40 bbl of oil now costs $80 add in higher demand and that
accounts for the rest of the inflated price.

I just don't get it. *(I am an engineer, not an economist *:-) *)

The dollar has not dropped by 50%, yet the price of oil has more than
doubled (more if you go back a couple of years).
Plus ... it's a world wide price .... not unique to the US. * All countries
are paying much higher prices.

It's not about demand - demand accounts for maybe 10% of the increase
over the fundamental price of $48.75 (based on current demand,
historical data and current demand data). *They are blaming "demand",
but demand has stayed relatively level - despite the best efforts of
the IOC prognosticators. OPEC, at the last data point, has at least a
3.7 million spare production hold on a per day basis.

What's fueling this is pure speculation. *If you take a look at the
long contracts, over the past six months that this run up has been
occurring, the increase in long term interest has quadrupled. *That
means that interest in buying oil in say May, at $125 a barrel, has
increased four fold - there's money on the table that is willing to
buy at that level.

It's a self-fullfilling prophecy. *If there is that kind of money
willing to buy against $110, which is going to win out?

Add the fact that there is too much money chasing too little profit
and you get speculation.

Also, I read something today that oil is now being used as a currency
- people are buying oil and using the contracts as currency to
purchase other commodities in commodity swaps which is driving up the
prices of wheat, corn, soy bean and palm oil.

That is a classic speculative bubble. *And when it explodes, it's
going to be spectacular.

That's my story and I'm sticking to it. *:)

Here's hoping you are right, even if I don't get the boat;)

Hate to bring up boating...
 

On Mar 11, 5:15*pm, Vic Smith wrote:
*The Wall Street Greed gang
is running this ship, and the crew has lost all discipline, drunk as
they are on cheap Chinese grog. *


"The only traditions of the Royal Navy are rum, sodomy and the lash."
- (Churchill's assistant, Anthony Montague-Browne )