Hate to bring up boating...
 

This is going to have a major impact on almost all aspects of
boating,

Jesus...what are those fat, bloated, useless pricks you see on the
fishing shows going to do with their Pussy Bass Boats?????

Hate to bring up boating...
 

This thread was going fine till you ****ed it up, moron.

Hate to bring up boating...
 

Eat Me, Trolls wrote:
This is going to have a major impact on almost all aspects of
boating,

Jesus...what are those fat, bloated, useless pricks you see on the
fishing shows going to do with their Pussy Bass Boats?????

Oh, probably keep feeshin' as long as the sponsors keep-a payin' 'em
too.

Hate to bring up boating...
 

"John" wrote in message
...


Price of oil - if the value of the dollar drops by 50% oil cost 100%
more. A $40 bbl of oil now costs $80 add in higher demand and that
accounts for the rest of the inflated price.



I just don't get it. (I am an engineer, not an economist :-) )

The dollar has not dropped by 50%, yet the price of oil has more than
doubled (more if you go back a couple of years).
Plus ... it's a world wide price .... not unique to the US. All countries
are paying much higher prices.

Eisboch

Hate to bring up boating...
 

On Tue, 11 Mar 2008 17:15:12 -0400, "Eisboch" wrote:


"John" wrote in message
.. .

Price of oil - if the value of the dollar drops by 50% oil cost 100%
more. A $40 bbl of oil now costs $80 add in higher demand and that
accounts for the rest of the inflated price.

I just don't get it. (I am an engineer, not an economist :-) )

The dollar has not dropped by 50%, yet the price of oil has more than
doubled (more if you go back a couple of years).
Plus ... it's a world wide price .... not unique to the US. All countries
are paying much higher prices.

It's not about demand - demand accounts for maybe 10% of the increase
over the fundamental price of $48.75 (based on current demand,
historical data and current demand data). They are blaming "demand",
but demand has stayed relatively level - despite the best efforts of
the IOC prognosticators. OPEC, at the last data point, has at least a
3.7 million spare production hold on a per day basis.

What's fueling this is pure speculation. If you take a look at the
long contracts, over the past six months that this run up has been
occurring, the increase in long term interest has quadrupled. That
means that interest in buying oil in say May, at $125 a barrel, has
increased four fold - there's money on the table that is willing to
buy at that level.

It's a self-fullfilling prophecy. If there is that kind of money
willing to buy against $110, which is going to win out?

Add the fact that there is too much money chasing too little profit
and you get speculation.

Also, I read something today that oil is now being used as a currency
- people are buying oil and using the contracts as currency to
purchase other commodities in commodity swaps which is driving up the
prices of wheat, corn, soy bean and palm oil.

That is a classic speculative bubble. And when it explodes, it's
going to be spectacular.

That's my story and I'm sticking to it. :)

Hate to bring up boating...
 

"Short Wave Sportfishing" wrote in message
...

On Tue, 11 Mar 2008 17:15:12 -0400, "Eisboch" wrote:

I just don't get it. (I am an engineer, not an economist :-) )

The dollar has not dropped by 50%, yet the price of oil has more than
doubled (more if you go back a couple of years).
Plus ... it's a world wide price .... not unique to the US. All
countries
are paying much higher prices.


It's not about demand - demand accounts for maybe 10% of the increase
over the fundamental price of $48.75 (based on current demand,
historical data and current demand data). They are blaming "demand",
but demand has stayed relatively level - despite the best efforts of
the IOC prognosticators. OPEC, at the last data point, has at least a
3.7 million spare production hold on a per day basis.

What's fueling this is pure speculation. If you take a look at the
long contracts, over the past six months that this run up has been
occurring, the increase in long term interest has quadrupled. That
means that interest in buying oil in say May, at $125 a barrel, has
increased four fold - there's money on the table that is willing to
buy at that level.

It's a self-fullfilling prophecy. If there is that kind of money
willing to buy against $110, which is going to win out?

Add the fact that there is too much money chasing too little profit
and you get speculation.

Also, I read something today that oil is now being used as a currency
- people are buying oil and using the contracts as currency to
purchase other commodities in commodity swaps which is driving up the
prices of wheat, corn, soy bean and palm oil.

That is a classic speculative bubble. And when it explodes, it's
going to be spectacular.

That's my story and I'm sticking to it. :)



Well, you and Doug have convinced me. I've thought and read about this
quite a bit since our last discussion and I think you guys are absolutely
correct. The price of oil (not the actual oil) is being bet on daily.
Other market factors influence the price, but not like the wild, get rich
quick speculation.

Oh, and for the politicals .... Bush has absolutely no control over this.

Eisboch

Hate to bring up boating...
 

"Eisboch" wrote in message
...

"Short Wave Sportfishing" wrote in message
...

On Tue, 11 Mar 2008 17:15:12 -0400, "Eisboch" wrote:

I just don't get it. (I am an engineer, not an economist :-) )

The dollar has not dropped by 50%, yet the price of oil has more than
doubled (more if you go back a couple of years).
Plus ... it's a world wide price .... not unique to the US. All
countries
are paying much higher prices.


It's not about demand - demand accounts for maybe 10% of the increase
over the fundamental price of $48.75 (based on current demand,
historical data and current demand data). They are blaming "demand",
but demand has stayed relatively level - despite the best efforts of
the IOC prognosticators. OPEC, at the last data point, has at least a
3.7 million spare production hold on a per day basis.

What's fueling this is pure speculation. If you take a look at the
long contracts, over the past six months that this run up has been
occurring, the increase in long term interest has quadrupled. That
means that interest in buying oil in say May, at $125 a barrel, has
increased four fold - there's money on the table that is willing to
buy at that level.

It's a self-fullfilling prophecy. If there is that kind of money
willing to buy against $110, which is going to win out?

Add the fact that there is too much money chasing too little profit
and you get speculation.

Also, I read something today that oil is now being used as a currency
- people are buying oil and using the contracts as currency to
purchase other commodities in commodity swaps which is driving up the
prices of wheat, corn, soy bean and palm oil.

That is a classic speculative bubble. And when it explodes, it's
going to be spectacular.

That's my story and I'm sticking to it. :)



Well, you and Doug have convinced me. I've thought and read about this
quite a bit since our last discussion and I think you guys are absolutely
correct. The price of oil (not the actual oil) is being bet on
daily. Other market factors influence the price, but not like the wild,
get rich quick speculation.

Oh, and for the politicals .... Bush has absolutely no control over this.

Eisboch

According to some, he could just say STOP IT. 8-)

Hate to bring up boating...
 

On Tue, 11 Mar 2008 09:42:22 -0400, "Eisboch" wrote:




Fair enough, but still, it's speculative and subjective. I am looking for
specific reasons why and how the *POTUS* controls the price of oil on the
world market and the value of the dollar.

Ask yourself why the Captain is responsible when a ship runs aground.
Same difference.
Don't get me wrong. It's not just Bush. The Wall Street Greed gang
is running this ship, and the crew has lost all discipline, drunk as
they are on cheap Chinese grog. Bush is just their figurehead,
nothing more. It started with Reagan's hare-brained Voodoo economics,
and his successors have carried on.
But each Captain is still responsible.
The cheap dollar - Polish people tell American dollar jokes - can be
directly tied to U.S. deficit spending and debt, and lack of goods
production in the U.S. due to offshoring jobs to keep the grog cheap.
The price of oil is a storm the ship was willingly steered into, when
all the radar showed it was there. Good Captains would have treated
oil with at least as much respect as made water, and confined the crew
to Navy showers while he had the engineers work on alternatives.
But the Captains were weak, and the crew were whiners.
Long luxurious baths in oil were the norm.
The law of supply and demand was ignored.
We're on the rocks now. There's only one Captain.
I don't see the upcoming replacements as being much better.
It will take Pat Buchanan, Dick Nixon, maybe Lou Dobbs
types to get us off the rocks permanently.
A hardass, not the gutless internationalists in the hopper.
Might be facile analogies, but that's one way to look at it.
From my perspective, our biggest weakness is consumer deadbeatism.
As a country, you can't consume more than you produce.
Not for long, anyway.
Anyway, that's how I see it. Of course, I might be all wrong.

--Vic

Hate to bring up boating...
 

On Tue, 11 Mar 2008 08:07:37 -0400, "Ernest Scribbler"
wrote:

"F.L.A.-J.I.M" wrote
I wonder if there will be a renewed interest in sailing?

I switched in 2006. Used about two gallons of gas last year.

Heh. Never even considered anything but sailboat or gas-miserly
skiff. The skiff is looking less likely.

--Vic

Hate to bring up boating...
 

On Tue, 11 Mar 2008 17:56:04 -0400, "Eisboch" wrote:


"Short Wave Sportfishing" wrote in message
.. .

On Tue, 11 Mar 2008 17:15:12 -0400, "Eisboch" wrote:

I just don't get it. (I am an engineer, not an economist :-) )

The dollar has not dropped by 50%, yet the price of oil has more than
doubled (more if you go back a couple of years).
Plus ... it's a world wide price .... not unique to the US. All
countries
are paying much higher prices.


It's not about demand - demand accounts for maybe 10% of the increase
over the fundamental price of $48.75 (based on current demand,
historical data and current demand data). They are blaming "demand",
but demand has stayed relatively level - despite the best efforts of
the IOC prognosticators. OPEC, at the last data point, has at least a
3.7 million spare production hold on a per day basis.

What's fueling this is pure speculation. If you take a look at the
long contracts, over the past six months that this run up has been
occurring, the increase in long term interest has quadrupled. That
means that interest in buying oil in say May, at $125 a barrel, has
increased four fold - there's money on the table that is willing to
buy at that level.

It's a self-fullfilling prophecy. If there is that kind of money
willing to buy against $110, which is going to win out?

Add the fact that there is too much money chasing too little profit
and you get speculation.

Also, I read something today that oil is now being used as a currency
- people are buying oil and using the contracts as currency to
purchase other commodities in commodity swaps which is driving up the
prices of wheat, corn, soy bean and palm oil.

That is a classic speculative bubble. And when it explodes, it's
going to be spectacular.

That's my story and I'm sticking to it. :)

Well, you and Doug have convinced me. I've thought and read about this
quite a bit since our last discussion and I think you guys are absolutely
correct. The price of oil (not the actual oil) is being bet on daily.
Other market factors influence the price, but not like the wild, get rich
quick speculation.

Oh, and for the politicals .... Bush has absolutely no control over this.

There is literally nothing any politician can do about it - that's
what's so interesting.

The bubble will burst when the EU and BRIC countries start feeling the
inflation. BRIC is already feeling some inflationary pressure and the
EU is ignoring inflation to concentrate on growth and they will be
seeing it very soon - most likely by July, possibly before.

Oddly, the one agency that can do something about it is actually the
FED. These two really innovative moves it's made over the past two
days makes it pretty clear that the FED has a handle on it and it
using some unique magic in their bag of tricks. What they are
basically saying is screw inflation - get the dollar back on track,
get the banks lending again and growth back to 2.5/3% - then we'll
deal with inflation because by the time we get back to steady,
inflation will take care of itself. Even more interesting, the EU
Central Bank has finally woke up to the fact that they have to
coordinate with the FED which they did today.

Very interesting what Bernacke and his cronies have done - not your
usual techniques.