"Shortwave Sportfishing" wrote in message
...
On Sun, 18 Sep 2005 17:42:30 GMT, "NOYB" wrote:

When home prices hit the outer stratosphere, the number of potential
buyers
admittedly shrinks. But the Naples luxury market is still in boom mode,
local agents say, despite forecasts of a housing bubble that some predict
eventually must burst.

A slowdown?

You will get your turn and sooner than later.

It's already starting up here in NE.

I figure that once the NE slows, we'll soon follow. They'll be a slowdown,
but never a correction. There are too many baby boomers looking to retire
down here. The SW coast of Florida used to be mostly midwesterners. But
the housing prices in the midwest aren't keeping pace with the prices down
here. So we're seeing more buyers from the NE, the West, and overseas.

On Sun, 18 Sep 2005 18:07:34 +0000, NOYB wrote:


I figure that once the NE slows, we'll soon follow. They'll be a
slowdown, but never a correction. There are too many baby boomers
looking to retire down here. The SW coast of Florida used to be mostly
midwesterners. But the housing prices in the midwest aren't keeping pace
with the prices down here. So we're seeing more buyers from the NE, the
West, and overseas.

You bought your house for the right reasons, as a place to live and
additionally, long term. I don't see you at risk, long term, but geez,
"never a correction." All the warning signs are there. I read somewhere
that speculators are a third of your market. You have people in the
industry openly denying the bubble will burst. Guy, remember "bust" is
part of the "boom and bust" cycle. It ain't an "if", it's a "when".

On Sun, 18 Sep 2005 23:18:09 -0400, thunder
wrote:

All the warning signs are there. I read somewhere
that speculators are a third of your market. You have people in the
industry openly denying the bubble will burst. Guy, remember "bust" is
part of the "boom and bust" cycle. It ain't an "if", it's a "when".

Unless, of course, hyper-inflation makes current housing prices seem
like a bargain in a few years.

I find it interesting to hear all the talking heads saying there's no
real problem with inflation. From my perspective there's been
tremendous inflation over the last few years, yet the "official" rate
of inflation is mild. I think what's happening in gold is a good sign
of what's about to happen in our economy. If you can make a dollar
worth $.20, paying off all the dept and entitlement won't hurt the
wealthy folks who control the country nearly as much.

bb

"thunder" wrote in message
...
On Sun, 18 Sep 2005 18:07:34 +0000, NOYB wrote:


I figure that once the NE slows, we'll soon follow. They'll be a
slowdown, but never a correction. There are too many baby boomers
looking to retire down here. The SW coast of Florida used to be mostly
midwesterners. But the housing prices in the midwest aren't keeping pace
with the prices down here. So we're seeing more buyers from the NE, the
West, and overseas.

You bought your house for the right reasons, as a place to live and
additionally, long term. I don't see you at risk, long term, but geez,
"never a correction." All the warning signs are there.

I agree. But I don't think prices will "correct". They'll plateau and
stagnate, but not fall significantly. Demand is increasing exponentially
with the baby boom population retiring.


I read somewhere
that speculators are a third of your market.

I've read up to 40% in some areas like Punta Gorda. It's much, much lower
in Naples.

You have people in the
industry openly denying the bubble will burst. Guy, remember "bust" is
part of the "boom and bust" cycle. It ain't an "if", it's a "when".

I agree with you. I see the market cooling, but I just don't believe that
you'll see significant price corrections.

Naples/Marco saw over a 35% price increase in the 2nd quarter alone (4
months!)...putting it #1 in the country in appreciation for that quarter.

My brother looked at a villa yesterday that the seller closed on in July
2005. She bought it pre-construction in 2004, so the price was locked in.
Regardless, in July, it closed for $209,900. My brother was too late
yesterday. It sold for $350,000. Two months and $140k profit. And she had
two offers on it already.

On Mon, 19 Sep 2005 12:44:45 +0000, NOYB wrote:


I agree. But I don't think prices will "correct". They'll plateau and
stagnate, but not fall significantly. Demand is increasing exponentially
with the baby boom population retiring.

A real estate bust is not like a stock market crash. Any corrections will
not happen overnight, but they will occur. A very general scenario,
right now, your market is overheated, they are building like crazy,
everybody is getting fat, and the market will never go down. But watch,
you see a couple of buildings completed, usually a retail unit, with no
occupants. Same with a house, here or there, completed with no one moving
in. Six months later, it's bust. The switch has been thrown, and there
will be no new starts. The well financed builders will complete their
projects and hope for the best, the less well financed will leave theirs
incomplete. Now comes the corrections.

The prices will remain high, because no one is willing to sell for less
than they paid, but those that thought they were going to get rich,
leveraged to the max, can't make the payments, will either walk or declare
bankruptcy. Those that have to leave the area, for whatever reason, will
have to take the hit. That's the bottom. Then there are those, such as
yourself, who bought a house to live in, they'll ride it out.

I read somewhere
that speculators are a third of your market.

I've read up to 40% in some areas like Punta Gorda. It's much, much lower
in Naples.

Nothing against speculators, but if they are in the market enough to
effect the market, it's a dangerous market. They don't really add
anything to the market, they just take from it.

"thunder" wrote in message
...
On Mon, 19 Sep 2005 12:44:45 +0000, NOYB wrote:


I agree. But I don't think prices will "correct". They'll plateau and
stagnate, but not fall significantly. Demand is increasing
exponentially
with the baby boom population retiring.

A real estate bust is not like a stock market crash. Any corrections will
not happen overnight, but they will occur. A very general scenario,
right now, your market is overheated, they are building like crazy,
everybody is getting fat, and the market will never go down. But watch,
you see a couple of buildings completed, usually a retail unit, with no
occupants. Same with a house, here or there, completed with no one moving
in. Six months later, it's bust. The switch has been thrown, and there
will be no new starts. The well financed builders will complete their
projects and hope for the best, the less well financed will leave theirs
incomplete. Now comes the corrections.

The prices will remain high, because no one is willing to sell for less
than they paid, but those that thought they were going to get rich,
leveraged to the max, can't make the payments, will either walk or declare
bankruptcy. Those that have to leave the area, for whatever reason, will
have to take the hit. That's the bottom. Then there are those, such as
yourself, who bought a house to live in, they'll ride it out.

Excellent synopsis. So the only thing that will drive prices down will be
those folks who *must* sell because they can't afford the payment on an
investment that they can't rent out. That is precisely why DSK's idea of
rental properties makes less sense than dumping all the money into your
primary residence. When you live in the house, you can afford to ride it
out.



I read somewhere
that speculators are a third of your market.

I've read up to 40% in some areas like Punta Gorda. It's much, much
lower
in Naples.

Nothing against speculators, but if they are in the market enough to
effect the market, it's a dangerous market. They don't really add
anything to the market, they just take from it.

They are definitely parasites on the housing and gasoline markets.

I agree. But I don't think prices will "correct". They'll plateau and
stagnate, but not fall significantly.

That depends tremendously on location.

... Demand is increasing
exponentially
with the baby boom population retiring.

Ya think? Seems to me that more people are downsizing as they retire.


A real estate bust is not like a stock market crash. Any corrections will
not happen overnight, but they will occur. A very general scenario,
right now, your market is overheated, they are building like crazy,
everybody is getting fat, and the market will never go down. But watch,
you see a couple of buildings completed, usually a retail unit, with no
occupants. Same with a house, here or there, completed with no one moving
in. Six months later, it's bust. The switch has been thrown, and there
will be no new starts. The well financed builders will complete their
projects and hope for the best, the less well financed will leave theirs
incomplete. Now comes the corrections.

And this also *can* (not necessarily) lead to a steep drop in ask
prices. It will certainly lead to a steep drop in realized prices.




The prices will remain high, because no one is willing to sell for less
than they paid, but those that thought they were going to get rich,
leveraged to the max, can't make the payments, will either walk or declare
bankruptcy.

And those houses go on the block for whatever they will fetch, which
drags down other ask prices.

It's also quite possible for local conditions to change (perception of
schools, for example... or traffic & road conditions) such that an area
becomes much less desirable, and prices drop. Sometimes it's more of a
long term lag, sometimes it's falling off a cliff as the number of homes
for sale in the area increase and buyers aren't coming.

... Those that have to leave the area, for whatever reason, will
have to take the hit. That's the bottom. Then there are those, such as
yourself, who bought a house to live in, they'll ride it out.


NOYB wrote:
Excellent synopsis. So the only thing that will drive prices down will be
those folks who *must* sell because they can't afford the payment on an
investment that they can't rent out.

Excuse me? Was that written between the lines somewhere? In any event,
it's quite wrong.


... That is precisely why DSK's idea of
rental properties makes less sense than dumping all the money into your
primary residence.

What was my idea about rental properties?


... When you live in the house, you can afford to ride it
out.


Not necessarily. And you're overlooking a very key fact- if your
appreciation doesn't dramatically outpace your loan (which could easily
given any of the above scenarios), your home performs extremely poorly
as an investment.

DSK

On Tue, 20 Sep 2005 14:10:33 +0000, NOYB wrote:


Excellent synopsis. So the only thing that will drive prices down will be
those folks who *must* sell because they can't afford the payment on an
investment that they can't rent out. That is precisely why DSK's idea of
rental properties makes less sense than dumping all the money into your
primary residence. When you live in the house, you can afford to ride it
out.

Don't misunderstand me, there are other forces at work. Just as the
overwhelming optimism is driving up the market, when reality sets in, the
pressures will be downward. Think, paying a note on house bought for $2
million, when the market says it is now only worth $500,000. There will
be quite a few unhappy people around who have to make some unpleasant
choices. Look, you bought your house to live in, on the water, in a very
pleasant town. Naples will retain value and will recover, but if I was
your brother, I'd wait a year. That $340K villa may once again be had for
$209K. Then again, it might be worth $700K, but *my* money wouldn't bet
on it.





I read somewhere
that speculators are a third of your market.

I've read up to 40% in some areas like Punta Gorda. It's much, much
lower
in Naples.

Nothing against speculators, but if they are in the market enough to
effect the market, it's a dangerous market. They don't really add
anything to the market, they just take from it.

They are definitely parasites on the housing and gasoline markets.

NOYB wrote:
"Shortwave Sportfishing" wrote in message
...
On Sun, 18 Sep 2005 17:42:30 GMT, "NOYB" wrote:

When home prices hit the outer stratosphere, the number of potential
buyers
admittedly shrinks. But the Naples luxury market is still in boom mode,
local agents say, despite forecasts of a housing bubble that some predict
eventually must burst.

A slowdown?

You will get your turn and sooner than later.

It's already starting up here in NE.

I figure that once the NE slows, we'll soon follow. They'll be a slowdown,
but never a correction. There are too many baby boomers looking to retire
down here. The SW coast of Florida used to be mostly midwesterners. But
the housing prices in the midwest aren't keeping pace with the prices down
here. So we're seeing more buyers from the NE, the West, and overseas.

Major money types are calling the Naples real estate market just what
it is, a mini-bubble, and it's going to burst.

Kevin,
The Wall Street Journal says one has to be careful of any market that has a
large increase in a short period of time, but they are suggesting caution,
not a forecast of a bust.

Who are these Major Money Types and do you have a link to their predictions?
Do they own a "Desmo"?

--

Starbuck

.... Hard work never killed anybody, but why take a chance?
wrote in message
oups.com...

NOYB wrote:
"Shortwave Sportfishing" wrote in message
...
On Sun, 18 Sep 2005 17:42:30 GMT, "NOYB" wrote:

When home prices hit the outer stratosphere, the number of potential
buyers
admittedly shrinks. But the Naples luxury market is still in boom mode,
local agents say, despite forecasts of a housing bubble that some
predict
eventually must burst.

A slowdown?

You will get your turn and sooner than later.

It's already starting up here in NE.

I figure that once the NE slows, we'll soon follow. They'll be a
slowdown,
but never a correction. There are too many baby boomers looking to
retire
down here. The SW coast of Florida used to be mostly midwesterners. But
the housing prices in the midwest aren't keeping pace with the prices
down
here. So we're seeing more buyers from the NE, the West, and overseas.

Major money types are calling the Naples real estate market just what
it is, a mini-bubble, and it's going to burst.