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-   -   OT--Ping: To all who keep warning me of a housing bust in Naples (https://www.boatbanter.com/general/48704-ot-ping-all-who-keep-warning-me-housing-bust-naples.html)

DSK September 20th 05 07:35 PM

PocoLoco wrote:
Not if he is enjoying the life he is living. Who are you to say what lifestyle
NYOB would be 'better' enjoying?


Can't read, can you?

Did I say that one particular lifestyle is "better" than another? Why do
you try to argue with things I didn't say, maybe because the facts are
so consistantly against you?

Answer- I said that NOBBY's financial future would be more secure.

BTW living in debt and letting the rest of society pay for your
extravagant choices is not a conservative lifestyle. NOBBY is certainly
not the worst example, but he's far from being 'conservative' fiscally.
And the part I disapprove of is only that he's gambling with his
family's security and he appears to not understand the odds, nor the risk.

DSK


DSK September 20th 05 07:43 PM

... Demand is increasing exponentially
with the baby boom population retiring.


Ya think? Seems to me that more people are downsizing as they retire.



NOYB wrote:
Houses in Florida don't have basements...and as a general rule are seldom
two stories, and are on tiny lots. Moving to Florida is considered
"downsizing"...everything but the price.


???

You think retirees with less income than they had when working, who are
looking for less expense, less driving, and closer care, are going to
buy increasingly expensive & expansive homes?



What was my idea about rental properties?



Sorry. I meant Gould's idea. It was to buy a cheaper primary residence and
put the savings into rental properties.


Well, that can be made to work out, depending on your community and how
savvy a buyer you are. Probably less risk than your method.

Personally, I wouldn't even invest in REITs and the spreads the risk
maximally. But then, I don't know a lot about real estate and would
rather invest in things I *do* know about.



... When you live in the house, you can afford to ride it out.


Not necessarily. And you're overlooking a very key fact- if your
appreciation doesn't dramatically outpace your loan (which could easily
given any of the above scenarios), your home performs extremely poorly as
an investment.



I only look at my home as an added bonus investment. It's not my primary
means of investment.


Ah so. That reduces the risk considerably. But it also contradicts what
you said earlier, that you are planning to pay off your business loan
and reap an increased income in the future; not putting money into other
investments.


... And what price can you put on the enjoyment of living
on the water with a boat in my backyard and only 2 miles from my office?


Personally, I put a higher value on living more frugally, having a large
& exponentially growing net worth along with investment income that will
see my wife & I comfortably thru retirement, and independence from the
whims of local gov't & the fickle real estate market.

OTOH I bought a pretty expensive boat which isn't going to (fiscally)
appreciate at all. So obviously I place a high value on *that*.

DSK


DSK September 20th 05 07:51 PM

NOYB wrote:
I've been on the fence on how to advise him. Part of me believes as you do:
that $340k villa will drop in price once a correction knocks the speculators
out of the market. But if I'm wrong, then where does he live? If he pays
the $340k now, and then it drops, he can just stay in it until it goes back
up again.


Rent cheap and put money into a residential REIT

If the housing market continues to climb fantastically, he'll have a leg
up on affording a place. If it crashes in some places or plateaus in
general, he'll have spread the risk as much as possible.

DSK


PocoLoco September 20th 05 07:54 PM

On Tue, 20 Sep 2005 14:35:48 -0400, DSK wrote:

PocoLoco wrote:
Not if he is enjoying the life he is living. Who are you to say what lifestyle
NYOB would be 'better' enjoying?


Can't read, can you?

Did I say that one particular lifestyle is "better" than another? Why do
you try to argue with things I didn't say, maybe because the facts are
so consistantly against you?

Answer- I said that NOBBY's financial future would be more secure.

BTW living in debt and letting the rest of society pay for your
extravagant choices is not a conservative lifestyle. NOBBY is certainly
not the worst example, but he's far from being 'conservative' fiscally.
And the part I disapprove of is only that he's gambling with his
family's security and he appears to not understand the odds, nor the risk.

DSK



Well, gosh. Your disapproval probably means a whole lot. His 'lifestyle'
includes living where he will.
--
John H

"All decisions are the result of binary thinking."

P Fritz September 20th 05 08:00 PM


"PocoLoco" wrote in message
...
On Tue, 20 Sep 2005 14:35:48 -0400, DSK wrote:

PocoLoco wrote:
Not if he is enjoying the life he is living. Who are you to say what

lifestyle
NYOB would be 'better' enjoying?


Can't read, can you?

Did I say that one particular lifestyle is "better" than another? Why do
you try to argue with things I didn't say, maybe because the facts are
so consistantly against you?

Answer- I said that NOBBY's financial future would be more secure.

BTW living in debt and letting the rest of society pay for your
extravagant choices is not a conservative lifestyle. NOBBY is certainly
not the worst example, but he's far from being 'conservative' fiscally.
And the part I disapprove of is only that he's gambling with his
family's security and he appears to not understand the odds, nor the

risk.

DSK



Well, gosh. Your disapproval probably means a whole lot. His 'lifestyle'
includes living where he will.


He is being the typical liebral.......sticking his nose in everybody else's
business.

How is "being in debt" forcing society to pay for his lifestyle?


--
John H

"All decisions are the result of binary thinking."




NOYB September 20th 05 08:12 PM


"DSK" wrote in message
.. .
... Demand is increasing exponentially
with the baby boom population retiring.

Ya think? Seems to me that more people are downsizing as they retire.



NOYB wrote:
Houses in Florida don't have basements...and as a general rule are seldom
two stories, and are on tiny lots. Moving to Florida is considered
"downsizing"...everything but the price.


???

You think retirees with less income than they had when working, who are
looking for less expense, less driving, and closer care, are going to buy
increasingly expensive & expansive homes?


I think you don't have a clear understanding of the average Naples retiree's
financial situation. Less expense isn't exactly a top priority to someone
worth $10, 50 or 100 million.

1,400 properties sold in Collier County for more than $1 million from
January through August of this year.

Presently, there are more than 450 homes listed at $2 million or more...and
100 of them are priced at $5 million and more.

It isn't your average shuffleboard-playing retiree settling down here.


But then, I don't know a lot about real estate


No kidding.




... When you live in the house, you can afford to ride it out.


Not necessarily. And you're overlooking a very key fact- if your
appreciation doesn't dramatically outpace your loan (which could easily
given any of the above scenarios), your home performs extremely poorly as
an investment.



I only look at my home as an added bonus investment. It's not my primary
means of investment.


Ah so. That reduces the risk considerably. But it also contradicts what
you said earlier, that you are planning to pay off your business loan and
reap an increased income in the future; not putting money into other
investments.


I currently put away $25,000+ per year in qualified pension plans...and have
done so since 1999. When my business loan is paid off in 4 years, I plan
on using some of the newfound income to pay down the principal on my house.
The rest I'll probably put away for my kids' college.



... And what price can you put on the enjoyment of living on the water
with a boat in my backyard and only 2 miles from my office?


Personally, I put a higher value on living more frugally, having a large &
exponentially growing net worth along with investment income that will see
my wife & I comfortably thru retirement, and independence from the whims
of local gov't & the fickle real estate market.

OTOH I bought a pretty expensive boat which isn't going to (fiscally)
appreciate at all. So obviously I place a high value on *that*.


I put a high value on my boats too...which is precisely why I bought a more
modest-sized home than I had before, but on the water with a boat dock.

Water access is very difficult down here. If we had adequate ramps and
marinas, I'd be living in a less expensive house inland.




NOYB September 20th 05 08:15 PM


"thunder" wrote in message
...
On Tue, 20 Sep 2005 17:21:16 +0000, NOYB wrote:


I've been on the fence on how to advise him. Part of me believes as you
do: that $340k villa will drop in price once a correction knocks the
speculators out of the market. But if I'm wrong, then where does he
live?
If he pays the $340k now, and then it drops, he can just stay in it
until
it goes back up again.


Yeah, my Crystal Ball is a little cloudy too. It's a tough call, but
ultimately housing's real value is to live in, not to make money on. If
he can afford it, and he is planning to stay in Naples, then . . . maybe.
The values are relative to the market. He'll only take a big hit, if he
has to leave the Naples market. That is, provided, Naples hasn't been so
overvalued that prices don't recover. I don't see that happening. Naples
is a very nice town and it will cost a premium to live there. Myself, I'm
just reaching a cautious age where I would be very hesitant in that
market. Your brother, maybe he hasn't reached that age. ;-)


My brother is 32. He'll recover from whatever bad choices he might make
right now. But if the choice is to wait and see if prices fall, and they
don't fall, he may have denied himself the ony opportunity he'll ever have
to own a house in Naples.

At least he's smart enough to max out his 401-k...and has done so for the
last 7 years. And he's unwilling to reduce his 401-K contributions just to
afford a more expensive house.






NOYB September 20th 05 08:17 PM


"DSK" wrote in message
. ..
NOYB wrote:
I've been on the fence on how to advise him. Part of me believes as you
do: that $340k villa will drop in price once a correction knocks the
speculators out of the market. But if I'm wrong, then where does he
live? If he pays the $340k now, and then it drops, he can just stay in
it until it goes back up again.


Rent cheap and put money into a residential REIT


I don't know anything about REIT's. Can you see 30-50% returns like we're
currently seeing in the real estate market?

And are they any safer than actually owning the real estate?



If the housing market continues to climb fantastically, he'll have a leg
up on affording a place. If it crashes in some places or plateaus in
general, he'll have spread the risk as much as possible.

DSK




NOYB September 20th 05 08:32 PM


"P Fritz" wrote in message
...

"PocoLoco" wrote in message
...
On Tue, 20 Sep 2005 14:35:48 -0400, DSK wrote:

PocoLoco wrote:
Not if he is enjoying the life he is living. Who are you to say what

lifestyle
NYOB would be 'better' enjoying?

Can't read, can you?

Did I say that one particular lifestyle is "better" than another? Why do
you try to argue with things I didn't say, maybe because the facts are
so consistantly against you?

Answer- I said that NOBBY's financial future would be more secure.

BTW living in debt and letting the rest of society pay for your
extravagant choices is not a conservative lifestyle. NOBBY is certainly
not the worst example, but he's far from being 'conservative' fiscally.
And the part I disapprove of is only that he's gambling with his
family's security and he appears to not understand the odds, nor the

risk.

DSK



Well, gosh. Your disapproval probably means a whole lot. His 'lifestyle'
includes living where he will.


He is being the typical liebral.......sticking his nose in everybody
else's
business.

How is "being in debt" forcing society to pay for his lifestyle?


He thinks that the tax deduction that I get for the interest on my home
mortgage is somehow subsidized by the government.

Of course, he fails to realize that it's just my own money that I'm allowed
to keep.




Don White September 20th 05 08:47 PM

NOYB wrote:
"P Fritz" wrote in message
...

"PocoLoco" wrote in message
. ..

On Tue, 20 Sep 2005 14:35:48 -0400, DSK wrote:


PocoLoco wrote:

Not if he is enjoying the life he is living. Who are you to say what


lifestyle

NYOB would be 'better' enjoying?

Can't read, can you?

Did I say that one particular lifestyle is "better" than another? Why do
you try to argue with things I didn't say, maybe because the facts are
so consistantly against you?

Answer- I said that NOBBY's financial future would be more secure.

BTW living in debt and letting the rest of society pay for your
extravagant choices is not a conservative lifestyle. NOBBY is certainly
not the worst example, but he's far from being 'conservative' fiscally.
And the part I disapprove of is only that he's gambling with his
family's security and he appears to not understand the odds, nor the


risk.

DSK


Well, gosh. Your disapproval probably means a whole lot. His 'lifestyle'
includes living where he will.


He is being the typical liebral.......sticking his nose in everybody
else's
business.

How is "being in debt" forcing society to pay for his lifestyle?



He thinks that the tax deduction that I get for the interest on my home
mortgage is somehow subsidized by the government.

Of course, he fails to realize that it's just my own money that I'm allowed
to keep.



That's the thing stateside. If you were like us...and not allowed to
deduct any mortgage principal or interest from your income, you might
think different.


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