"John H" wrote in message
...
On Sat, 25 Jun 2005 16:28:07 GMT, "Doug Kanter"

wrote:


"John H" wrote in message
. ..
On Sat, 25 Jun 2005 14:58:56 GMT, "Doug Kanter"

wrote:

"P. Fritz" wrote in message
...


Black markets tend to develop when guvmints interfer with supply and
demand.....

A black market is just one example of an adjustment made in response to
an
unstable environment. War is another example of an unstable environment,
and
both have an effect on prices. Ask anyone who was an adult during the
2nd
world war.

In what way did they affect prices?

Simple version: In response to shortages, the prices of such things as raw
metal products and coffee increased. Now, the price of oil is increasing
due
to PERCEIVED stressors on the market. I say "perceived" because there is
NO
supply shortage, and the mythical demand you like to talk about is not
enough to explain the drastic price increases over the past couple of
years.

China's mythical?

No, John. But when you listen to the grownup news, you'll hear from people
IN THE OIL INDUSTRY that China's demand has NOT soared over the past 2-3
years enough to have the effect attributed to it.

I know it's easy to say "China", but you really need to expend a bit more
effort to understand this.

"John H" wrote in message
...
On Sat, 25 Jun 2005 16:32:50 GMT, "Doug Kanter"

wrote:

"John H" wrote in message
. ..


Let's assume that it's something people normally want ALL the time,
John.
Coffee, shoes, whatever. Don't hand me junior high school economic
theories.

Well, if we assume the demand hasn't changed, and the supply has
diminished,
then prices will go up.

In the case of oil, the demand has greatly increased over the past
several
years
(almost as bad as outsourcing!).

The junior high economic theories are, at least, rational.

In case Fruitz pretends not to notice the question I just asked him, I'll
ask you: Please indicate specifics as to WHERE you believe this increased
demand is coming from. If you choose to repeat "China...", as others have,
please provide data.

"From:
Suchita Vemuri
Staff Writer
2005-02-24 02:27:38 Hi Joseph, China's oil demand has been growing at an
average 7% since 1990, and while it's now the second largest oil consumer
after
the USA, its consumption in 2004 was around six million barrels per day,
against
a little over 20 in the USA. But if the current trend continues, China's
consumption is expected to equal that of the USA by the mid-2020s."

For stats and graphs go to:
http://www.nationmaster.com/graph-T/...&id=NAM&id=ASI

Is this what you'd call 'mythical demand'?

Is what's on that page the only number you consider important? Notice I said
"that page", not "that site".

On Sat, 25 Jun 2005 20:57:46 GMT, "Doug Kanter"
wrote:


"John H" wrote in message
.. .
On Sat, 25 Jun 2005 16:28:07 GMT, "Doug Kanter"

wrote:


"John H" wrote in message
...
On Sat, 25 Jun 2005 14:58:56 GMT, "Doug Kanter"

wrote:

"P. Fritz" wrote in message
...


Black markets tend to develop when guvmints interfer with supply and
demand.....

A black market is just one example of an adjustment made in response to
an
unstable environment. War is another example of an unstable environment,
and
both have an effect on prices. Ask anyone who was an adult during the
2nd
world war.

In what way did they affect prices?

Simple version: In response to shortages, the prices of such things as raw
metal products and coffee increased. Now, the price of oil is increasing
due
to PERCEIVED stressors on the market. I say "perceived" because there is
NO
supply shortage, and the mythical demand you like to talk about is not
enough to explain the drastic price increases over the past couple of
years.

China's mythical?

No, John. But when you listen to the grownup news, you'll hear from people
IN THE OIL INDUSTRY that China's demand has NOT soared over the past 2-3
years enough to have the effect attributed to it.

I know it's easy to say "China", but you really need to expend a bit more
effort to understand this.

You are absolutely right on this one Doug. The perceived "shortages"
and "shortfalls" are totally bogus - it's a speculator's market and
it's driving the economy into the dumpster along the way.

Don't you find it interesting that there is more distillate fuels in
the supply chain and less demand than today and we're paying more for
it?

If I had to bet on who's and wherefores, Goldman/Sachs is first on the
list followed closely by Soros.

It's not like they haven't bankrupted countries before you know.

"John H" wrote in message
...

Of course, there are numerous other factors driving the price of crude,
among
them supply hiccups caused by chaos in Iraq, political and economic
turmoil in
oil-producing nations such as Nigeria and Russia, hurricanes in the Gulf
of
Mexico, and fears of terrorism.

Do you understand what they mean by "hiccups", how they're produced in terms
of commodity prices, and why the last 10 "hiccups" were never retracted?



Note, China's oil imports rose by 40% in the first *half* of 2004 alone!

Now, perhaps you'll be so kind as to show me the data supporting the 'Bush
deficit did it' theory.

Somebody else brought up the deficit theory.

"Jack Goff" wrote in message
m...

How in the hell do you think they manage to make *everything* that
Wal-Mart
sells? By rubbing two sticks together? Sheeesh...

Interesting logic. You might be right. But, you may want to be careful about
pushing this theory any further. The origins come back to bite the last 3
presidents right in the ass.

"Shortwave Sportfishing" wrote in message
...

You are absolutely right on this one Doug. The perceived "shortages"
and "shortfalls" are totally bogus - it's a speculator's market and
it's driving the economy into the dumpster along the way.

It's really no different than the stock market. The nightly news says "IBM
announced lower-than-expected earnings and the DJIA responded by losing 300
points". Who's dumb enough to think that by "investors", they mean people
like you and I? It's the same kind of institutional investors who move the
prices of oil, orange juice and pork.

Bert Robbins wrote:


What about you Canadians and your gas sucking vehicles? You can't make gas
from HydroQuebec.

Hydro Quebec produces electricity Bertie. It's what your fridge needs to
keep your booze cold.

John H wrote:



Better let Harry do the talking, and you do the follow up. Works better that
way.


Ok...let's substitute 'high powered yellow Mustang' for SUV....
make more sense?

"Don White" wrote in message
...
John H wrote:



Better let Harry do the talking, and you do the follow up. Works better
that
way.


Ok...let's substitute 'high powered yellow Mustang' for SUV....
make more sense?

Don, it's unfair to have a memory, and also to use it.

"Doug Kanter" wrote:

"Jack Goff" wrote:

How in the hell do you think they manage to make *everything* that
Wal-Mart
sells? By rubbing two sticks together? Sheeesh...

Interesting logic. You might be right.

Ahh.. light in a dark place...

But, you may want to be careful about
pushing this theory any further. The origins come back to bite the last 3
presidents right in the ass.

....then goes right back out.

It's not a "theory" that the Chinese are increasing their usage of petroleum
at a rate far surpassing any other countries. They are the ones creating
the new, expanding demand for petro. That's what you were questioning.
It's a fact. If you have data to refute this, point us all to it.
Otherwise, shut your pie hole. You're proving to be almost as dumb as
Kevin.